With earnings barely increasing, many families are likely to experience mounting financial pressures, eroding living standards.

Weak real earnings growth will be particularly concerning for lower-income households. Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, with food and housing costs continuing to rise faster than the overall price level.

We need an independent process to advise on a standard allowance rate that reflects what people need to afford the essentials, and for rates to quickly move towards that level.

The annual gap still likely to be more than £1,000 for singles and £2,500 for couples. Look at how little next year’s increase moves rates towards a level that enables people to afford the essentials.

This means the standard allowance is set to rise from £92 to £98 per week for singles and from £145 to £154 per week for couples. However it will remain below the level needed to afford a basic basket of essentials.

Thanks Noah, but I'm looking at UK not US earnings - see www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan... for the official data I am using.

Great question. Answer is a bit of both, but higher inflation is the biggest driver, with similar (if lower) nominal wage growth this year compared to last year.

Unless we get strong growth in one of the next two months' data, annual earnings growth will fall to ~zero in data out on 11th Nov, before Budget, highlighting the importance of decisions there.

Without the security of affordable housing, a stable job & adequate social security, it's hard to take risks, invest in your future or be productive at work. Rising living standards aren’t just a desirable by-product of growth, they're an essential ingredient to a strong economy.

Thanks for picking this up. It's based on series A2FC in tab '6. Real AWE' in the spreadsheet at www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan.... We've waited a few months to be sure it's not a blip, but the earnings slowdown (mainly due to higher inflation) feels a real effect to us.

When coupled with above target rate inflation, falling vacancy numbers and rising unemployment, it how much shows the Chancellor needs to focus on tackling falling living standards there. See jrf.org.uk/news/new-jrf... our previous analysis. (5/5)

Lack of earnings growth is deeply worrying and should trends continue and the budget be after 11 November (when September earnings data comes out), the latest picture may well show no earnings growth in the latest year. (4/5)

What did the May Monetary Policy Report say? The Bank doesn’t look at whole economy regular wages or CPIH inflation, and were too high on private sector earnings and too low on CPI inflation. They had both series falling over the next six months. (3/5)

Latest annual figures are flattered by positive earnings growth between May and September 2024. Why this stagnation? It’s due to higher inflation since September 2024, with non-inflation adjusted (nominal) earnings growth very similar over both periods. (2/5)

Anyway, thanks for engaging with the report and material even if you remain a sceptic.