John Sisino
@smarmyeod.bsky.social
Former glorified trash man, current glorified forklift operator. Happily crosscut.
Don’t be ninjerin’ nobody who don’t need no ninjerin.’
Istud dolebitis.
Don’t be ninjerin’ nobody who don’t need no ninjerin.’
Istud dolebitis.
Reposted by John Sisino
In my experience “First Amendment absolutist” is just a sort of caricature term used by people who want to create a bunch of new categories of unprotected speech to describe folks who think the current list of well-established exceptions is sufficient.
Can we talk a bit about the terms “First Amendment absolutist” and “free speech absolutist,” and whether they have any agreed-upon meaning?
I promise to try, to the utmost of my ability, to Be Respectful Of Other Opinions.
/1
I promise to try, to the utmost of my ability, to Be Respectful Of Other Opinions.
/1
February 18, 2026 at 10:52 PM
In my experience “First Amendment absolutist” is just a sort of caricature term used by people who want to create a bunch of new categories of unprotected speech to describe folks who think the current list of well-established exceptions is sufficient.
Reposted by John Sisino
Top national security officials have told Trump the military is ready for potential strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend, but the timeline for any action is likely to extend beyond Saturday or Sunday. Trump has not yet made a final decision. www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-p...
Trump has discussed timeline for Iran strikes — including as soon as this weekend — but no decision yet
Trump has not yet made a final decision about whether to strike Iran, sources told CBS News.
www.cbsnews.com
February 18, 2026 at 11:44 PM
Top national security officials have told Trump the military is ready for potential strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend, but the timeline for any action is likely to extend beyond Saturday or Sunday. Trump has not yet made a final decision. www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-p...
Reposted by John Sisino
So now Trump is going to drive JAG lawyers out of the military and/or destroy their careers, finances, or both.
1. DHS surges 3,000 officers to Minneapolis without doing anywhere near enough prep first.
2. Hundreds of habeas cases overwhelm local courts.
3. Dozens of DOJ lawyers quit in disgust/anger.
4. The DOJ brings in JAGs to cover.
5. A JAG was just held in contempt and fined $500/day for ICE's failures.
2. Hundreds of habeas cases overwhelm local courts.
3. Dozens of DOJ lawyers quit in disgust/anger.
4. The DOJ brings in JAGs to cover.
5. A JAG was just held in contempt and fined $500/day for ICE's failures.
February 18, 2026 at 11:20 PM
So now Trump is going to drive JAG lawyers out of the military and/or destroy their careers, finances, or both.
Reposted by John Sisino
1. DHS surges 3,000 officers to Minneapolis without doing anywhere near enough prep first.
2. Hundreds of habeas cases overwhelm local courts.
3. Dozens of DOJ lawyers quit in disgust/anger.
4. The DOJ brings in JAGs to cover.
5. A JAG was just held in contempt and fined $500/day for ICE's failures.
2. Hundreds of habeas cases overwhelm local courts.
3. Dozens of DOJ lawyers quit in disgust/anger.
4. The DOJ brings in JAGs to cover.
5. A JAG was just held in contempt and fined $500/day for ICE's failures.
February 18, 2026 at 11:09 PM
1. DHS surges 3,000 officers to Minneapolis without doing anywhere near enough prep first.
2. Hundreds of habeas cases overwhelm local courts.
3. Dozens of DOJ lawyers quit in disgust/anger.
4. The DOJ brings in JAGs to cover.
5. A JAG was just held in contempt and fined $500/day for ICE's failures.
2. Hundreds of habeas cases overwhelm local courts.
3. Dozens of DOJ lawyers quit in disgust/anger.
4. The DOJ brings in JAGs to cover.
5. A JAG was just held in contempt and fined $500/day for ICE's failures.
Reposted by John Sisino
Maybe he’ll do blanket pardons, wouldn’t be surprising if he does, in which case there are various possible ways around that to consider. But if you’re one of his criminal goons thinking it’s certain he’s got your back and will definitely give you a pardon, you’re a fool. He is reliable for nothing.
February 18, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Maybe he’ll do blanket pardons, wouldn’t be surprising if he does, in which case there are various possible ways around that to consider. But if you’re one of his criminal goons thinking it’s certain he’s got your back and will definitely give you a pardon, you’re a fool. He is reliable for nothing.
Reposted by John Sisino
That’s not the end of the matter even if he does, but I don’t think this is actually so certain anyway, and not just because It Could Happen before he gets around to it. When does he ever keep up his end of a deal, much less a merely implied one, at the point when there’s nothing left in it for him?
Everyone will get a pardon before Trump leaves.
February 18, 2026 at 10:57 AM
That’s not the end of the matter even if he does, but I don’t think this is actually so certain anyway, and not just because It Could Happen before he gets around to it. When does he ever keep up his end of a deal, much less a merely implied one, at the point when there’s nothing left in it for him?
Reposted by John Sisino
Fulton Co elections expert: “In all 5 areas identified by ... the [search warrant] affidavit, there are a multitude of false or misleading statements or omissions. ... Once ... corrected, the affidavit loses any basis in reality.”
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
February 18, 2026 at 1:52 AM
Fulton Co elections expert: “In all 5 areas identified by ... the [search warrant] affidavit, there are a multitude of false or misleading statements or omissions. ... Once ... corrected, the affidavit loses any basis in reality.”
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Reposted by John Sisino
Bottom line: when I say they don't have the resources to pull this idea off, I'm not neglecting that the premise is they would strategically target swing seats. I mean they don't realistically have the capacity to do even that.
tl; dr: there really are more of us than there are of them. By a lot.
tl; dr: there really are more of us than there are of them. By a lot.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
Bottom line: when I say they don't have the resources to pull this idea off, I'm not neglecting that the premise is they would strategically target swing seats. I mean they don't realistically have the capacity to do even that.
tl; dr: there really are more of us than there are of them. By a lot.
tl; dr: there really are more of us than there are of them. By a lot.
Reposted by John Sisino
Even with the most generous assumptions, you'd need more than double that to pull this off, and realistically more like into the five figures. And that's just to get you close enough to where it *might* be able to swing it, if it's a much closer election than it looks like we're on track for.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
Even with the most generous assumptions, you'd need more than double that to pull this off, and realistically more like into the five figures. And that's just to get you close enough to where it *might* be able to swing it, if it's a much closer election than it looks like we're on track for.
Reposted by John Sisino
The siege of Minneapolis required them going pretty much flat-out on how many agents they could divert to it, and that amounted to 3,000. To terrorize one mid-sized city, and mostly not its sprawling suburbs where the actual competitive House districts would be elsewhere.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
The siege of Minneapolis required them going pretty much flat-out on how many agents they could divert to it, and that amounted to 3,000. To terrorize one mid-sized city, and mostly not its sprawling suburbs where the actual competitive House districts would be elsewhere.
Reposted by John Sisino
How many ICE goons would it take per polling place?(again if this whole premise works at all, which there are strong reasons to doubt) We know they travel in packs, it's not like they ever send only one or two. Ten, at a minimum, and I think that's low for how surrounded they'd be by protests etc.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
How many ICE goons would it take per polling place?(again if this whole premise works at all, which there are strong reasons to doubt) We know they travel in packs, it's not like they ever send only one or two. Ten, at a minimum, and I think that's low for how surrounded they'd be by protests etc.
Reposted by John Sisino
IOW, at the bare minimum conservative assumptions, to have a realistic probability of flipping the House majority outcome, you would have to target hundreds if not thousands of polling places and this would have to work to the tune of successfully suppressing hundreds of thousands of votes.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
IOW, at the bare minimum conservative assumptions, to have a realistic probability of flipping the House majority outcome, you would have to target hundreds if not thousands of polling places and this would have to work to the tune of successfully suppressing hundreds of thousands of votes.
Reposted by John Sisino
You can look at the very few closest House races in any cycle and see some that came down to a few hundred votes. But that's not most of them. Even competitive races generally come out with five figure margins. And there's no crystal ball to tell you which races will be razor-thin in advance.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
You can look at the very few closest House races in any cycle and see some that came down to a few hundred votes. But that's not most of them. Even competitive races generally come out with five figure margins. And there's no crystal ball to tell you which races will be razor-thin in advance.
Reposted by John Sisino
Let's take the low end of 32 competitive House races, and a conservative 200 polling places each. Granted this is all rough back of the envelope, but just to get a sense of the scale. That would be ~6400 in-person voting locations, and that's not even considering the large chunk of postal votes.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
Let's take the low end of 32 competitive House races, and a conservative 200 polling places each. Granted this is all rough back of the envelope, but just to get a sense of the scale. That would be ~6400 in-person voting locations, and that's not even considering the large chunk of postal votes.
Reposted by John Sisino
How many House districts are competitive, especially in what's very likely to be a wave year? It's not actually a small number. Cook has 18 as tossup plus another 18 as lean. Ballotpedia has 42 'competitive.' So we're talking in that ballpark. Dozens of districts, not three or four or five.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
How many House districts are competitive, especially in what's very likely to be a wave year? It's not actually a small number. Cook has 18 as tossup plus another 18 as lean. Ballotpedia has 42 'competitive.' So we're talking in that ballpark. Dozens of districts, not three or four or five.
Reposted by John Sisino
In the first place, competitive House districts are by definition not in deep blue, heavily minority urban areas. They are in predominantly white, predominantly middle class suburbs where half-ish of voters are Republicans. That's where you'd have to target for suppression.
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
In the first place, competitive House districts are by definition not in deep blue, heavily minority urban areas. They are in predominantly white, predominantly middle class suburbs where half-ish of voters are Republicans. That's where you'd have to target for suppression.
Reposted by John Sisino
My case for anti-doomerism about the midterms. But I want to break down a particular thing people keep floating: the idea that targeting only a small number of precincts in a small handful of districts would be enough, and they have the resources and manpower do that. Let's talk numbers. 🧵:
Worry, Don't Panic, Over Trump's Efforts to Subvert the Elections
America's system is quite foolproof but he can still try to delegitimize it
www.theunpopulist.net
February 18, 2026 at 2:08 AM
My case for anti-doomerism about the midterms. But I want to break down a particular thing people keep floating: the idea that targeting only a small number of precincts in a small handful of districts would be enough, and they have the resources and manpower do that. Let's talk numbers. 🧵:
Reposted by John Sisino
ICE agents crashed directly into a 19-year-old refugee's car, pulled him out from the wreck, threw him on the ground, then rushed him off to detention before he could locate the immigration papers in his car that proved he's here lawfully. democracyforward.org/wp-content/u...
February 17, 2026 at 8:15 PM
ICE agents crashed directly into a 19-year-old refugee's car, pulled him out from the wreck, threw him on the ground, then rushed him off to detention before he could locate the immigration papers in his car that proved he's here lawfully. democracyforward.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by John Sisino
The Trump administration's handling of the legal immigration system is so malignant and incompetent that ICE ended up deporting a human trafficking victim seemingly because so many people have quit that her application for relief was sitting in a mailroom in a box unopened.
February 17, 2026 at 9:53 PM
The Trump administration's handling of the legal immigration system is so malignant and incompetent that ICE ended up deporting a human trafficking victim seemingly because so many people have quit that her application for relief was sitting in a mailroom in a box unopened.
Reposted by John Sisino
"Law" under Trump; lawyers inside USCIS were handed pre-written memos and told they had 10 minutes to read them and respond.
When the lawyers said the memos had problems, they were told to ignore them anyway because the admin doesn't care what the law says.
When the lawyers said the memos had problems, they were told to ignore them anyway because the admin doesn't care what the law says.
February 17, 2026 at 9:52 PM
"Law" under Trump; lawyers inside USCIS were handed pre-written memos and told they had 10 minutes to read them and respond.
When the lawyers said the memos had problems, they were told to ignore them anyway because the admin doesn't care what the law says.
When the lawyers said the memos had problems, they were told to ignore them anyway because the admin doesn't care what the law says.
Reposted by John Sisino
The horror stories rolling in from Minnesota are just the tip of the iceberg. This 20-year-old, who's lawfully present in the country, was arrested for being Latino, then jailed in a filthy cell where he couldn't even sit down. 18 days of illegal detention. democracyforward.org/wp-content/u...
February 17, 2026 at 8:06 PM
The horror stories rolling in from Minnesota are just the tip of the iceberg. This 20-year-old, who's lawfully present in the country, was arrested for being Latino, then jailed in a filthy cell where he couldn't even sit down. 18 days of illegal detention. democracyforward.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by John Sisino
What navy?
⚡️Kremlin threatens to deploy navy if Europe seizes more Russian shadow fleet vessels.
Presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev, who had served as head of the FSB intelligence agency as well as secretary of the Security Council, made the threats on Feb. 17.
Presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev, who had served as head of the FSB intelligence agency as well as secretary of the Security Council, made the threats on Feb. 17.
Kremlin threatens to deploy navy if Europe seizes more Russian shadow fleet vessels
Presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev called the European raids on shadow fleet ships "piracy," and expressed concern that the next step would be a full-fledged blockade.
kyivindependent.com
February 17, 2026 at 8:32 PM
What navy?
Reposted by John Sisino
Inside the Homeland Security Forum Where ICE Agents Talk Shit About Other Agents
@telliotter.bsky.social reports from inside yet ANOTHER ICE agent forum:
@telliotter.bsky.social reports from inside yet ANOTHER ICE agent forum:
Inside the Homeland Security Forum Where ICE Agents Talk Shit About Other Agents
Forum members discuss their discomfort with mass deportation efforts, debate how federal agents have interacted with civilians, and complain about their working conditions.
www.wired.com
February 17, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Inside the Homeland Security Forum Where ICE Agents Talk Shit About Other Agents
@telliotter.bsky.social reports from inside yet ANOTHER ICE agent forum:
@telliotter.bsky.social reports from inside yet ANOTHER ICE agent forum:
Reposted by John Sisino
One way to identify right-wing dominance of the US media environment: This is much more direct, egregious government censorship than the biggest claims of the “Twitter Files”—including ones they made up that had no evidence behind them—and will get a small fraction of the attention and outrage.
Stephen Colbert blasted Brendan Carr after FCC scrutiny led CBS to pull an interview with Texas State Rep James Talarico. Instead, 'The Late Show' posted it to YouTube.
Colbert Says CBS Pulled Guest Over FCC Scrutiny; Posts Interview to YouTube Instead
Stephen Colbert blasted Brendan Carr after FCC scrutiny led CBS to pull an interview with Texas State Rep James Talarico. Instead, 'The Late Show' posted it to YouTube.
dlvr.it
February 17, 2026 at 1:18 PM
One way to identify right-wing dominance of the US media environment: This is much more direct, egregious government censorship than the biggest claims of the “Twitter Files”—including ones they made up that had no evidence behind them—and will get a small fraction of the attention and outrage.
Reposted by John Sisino
RFK Jr.: ‘Time In Hot Cars Helps Babies To Sweat Out Toxins’ https://theonion.com/rfk-jr-time-in-hot-cars-helps-babies-to-sweat-out-toxins/
February 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM
RFK Jr.: ‘Time In Hot Cars Helps Babies To Sweat Out Toxins’ https://theonion.com/rfk-jr-time-in-hot-cars-helps-babies-to-sweat-out-toxins/