Satyen Baindur
@satyenbaindur.bsky.social
Indian-born, US-educated, Canadian theoretical physicist
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
"The profession can strengthen its foundations by developing cross disciplinary knowledge, real-time data sources and scenario tools to better model a more complex world of fewer constants."
Agree with this from the FT editorial, "How economists lost traction"
I would add the importance of humility
Agree with this from the FT editorial, "How economists lost traction"
I would add the importance of humility
August 29, 2025 at 10:03 PM
"The profession can strengthen its foundations by developing cross disciplinary knowledge, real-time data sources and scenario tools to better model a more complex world of fewer constants."
Agree with this from the FT editorial, "How economists lost traction"
I would add the importance of humility
Agree with this from the FT editorial, "How economists lost traction"
I would add the importance of humility
Evolution of Hindu-Arabic numerals. Earliest 'circular zero' so far discovered 9th Cent. Gwalior inscription ↘️ traveled to Baghdad area (E Arabic), Morocco (W Arabic);Spain & by 16th Cent., England. Critical in developing double-entry book-keeping, corporations, then European colonialism in India!🙏
November 30, 2024 at 9:14 AM
Evolution of Hindu-Arabic numerals. Earliest 'circular zero' so far discovered 9th Cent. Gwalior inscription ↘️ traveled to Baghdad area (E Arabic), Morocco (W Arabic);Spain & by 16th Cent., England. Critical in developing double-entry book-keeping, corporations, then European colonialism in India!🙏
Christ Driving the Moneychangers from the Temple. Rembrandt (1606-69) painted 1635.
November 30, 2024 at 4:22 AM
Christ Driving the Moneychangers from the Temple. Rembrandt (1606-69) painted 1635.
US Imports of Nickel (Ni) by Country 2019-2022. 40% comes from Canada, which produces about 5% of world Nickel. The category 'Other' below could include Australia, which also produces ~5%; or Indonesia (nearly 50%) or the Philippines (about 10%) via @statista.bsky.social
November 29, 2024 at 3:42 AM
US Imports of Nickel (Ni) by Country 2019-2022. 40% comes from Canada, which produces about 5% of world Nickel. The category 'Other' below could include Australia, which also produces ~5%; or Indonesia (nearly 50%) or the Philippines (about 10%) via @statista.bsky.social
#CanadaPensionPlan Assets past 3 years 2022, 2023, 2024 have been rising faster than projected at year-end by the #ChiefActuary of Canada [based on assets 12/31/2021]
2022 Projected $518 B; Actual $536 B.
2023 Projected $564 B; Actual $591 B.
2024 Projected $615 B; Actual $675 B (as on 9/30/2024).
2022 Projected $518 B; Actual $536 B.
2023 Projected $564 B; Actual $591 B.
2024 Projected $615 B; Actual $675 B (as on 9/30/2024).
November 29, 2024 at 2:30 AM
#CanadaPensionPlan Assets past 3 years 2022, 2023, 2024 have been rising faster than projected at year-end by the #ChiefActuary of Canada [based on assets 12/31/2021]
2022 Projected $518 B; Actual $536 B.
2023 Projected $564 B; Actual $591 B.
2024 Projected $615 B; Actual $675 B (as on 9/30/2024).
2022 Projected $518 B; Actual $536 B.
2023 Projected $564 B; Actual $591 B.
2024 Projected $615 B; Actual $675 B (as on 9/30/2024).
Worldwide Assets Under Management AUM (by private entities) by country. #Top5 2023 2024 with forecast to 2028 via @statista.bsky.social Sheer dominance of the US: In 2024 US AUM $64.39 T = 1.97 X (UK+FR+DE+ JAP = $32.74T); projected to become by 2028 US AUM $87.35T = 2.31 X *(UK+FR+DE+JAP=37.62 T)!
November 29, 2024 at 2:09 AM
Worldwide Assets Under Management AUM (by private entities) by country. #Top5 2023 2024 with forecast to 2028 via @statista.bsky.social Sheer dominance of the US: In 2024 US AUM $64.39 T = 1.97 X (UK+FR+DE+ JAP = $32.74T); projected to become by 2028 US AUM $87.35T = 2.31 X *(UK+FR+DE+JAP=37.62 T)!
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
I can't stress this enough.
November 27, 2024 at 5:42 AM
I can't stress this enough.
Wordle 1,257 2/6 Amazing! (No, just me!) 😊
⬜⬜🟩🟩⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜⬜🟩🟩⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
November 27, 2024 at 8:08 AM
Wordle 1,257 2/6 Amazing! (No, just me!) 😊
⬜⬜🟩🟩⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜⬜🟩🟩⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
USTR-designate Jamieson Greer: panel at World Trade Center Utah #ChinaChallengeSummit. When host-panelist Damien Ma said that Debt, [(wealth) re-] Distribution and Demographics are key constraints for the Chinese economy, JG adds a 4th D: Deteriorating foreign relations @ 35:00 youtu.be/ONNpK3QiDVA
China's Economic Might and Trade Policy
YouTube video by World Trade Center Utah
youtu.be
November 27, 2024 at 7:29 AM
USTR-designate Jamieson Greer: panel at World Trade Center Utah #ChinaChallengeSummit. When host-panelist Damien Ma said that Debt, [(wealth) re-] Distribution and Demographics are key constraints for the Chinese economy, JG adds a 4th D: Deteriorating foreign relations @ 35:00 youtu.be/ONNpK3QiDVA
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
Geographical variation of inflation within the Eurozone is actually quite considerable👇 In September 2024, Cyprus and Latvia each had 1.6%, while Belgium had the highest 4.3% and Ireland the lowest 0.0%! France, Germany and Italy had 1.4% 1.8% and 0.7%. Eurozone HICP for 09/24 is 1.7% closest to DEU
November 27, 2024 at 5:06 AM
Geographical variation of inflation within the Eurozone is actually quite considerable👇 In September 2024, Cyprus and Latvia each had 1.6%, while Belgium had the highest 4.3% and Ireland the lowest 0.0%! France, Germany and Italy had 1.4% 1.8% and 0.7%. Eurozone HICP for 09/24 is 1.7% closest to DEU
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
Finally, let us look at how inflation in France ↙️ and Italy ↘️ behaved relative to the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) computed by Eurostat. Inflation in France peaked ~6 months later and 350 bp lower; peak Inflation in Italy coincided with Eurozone but peaked 200bp higher! 🙏
November 26, 2024 at 10:05 PM
Finally, let us look at how inflation in France ↙️ and Italy ↘️ behaved relative to the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) computed by Eurostat. Inflation in France peaked ~6 months later and 350 bp lower; peak Inflation in Italy coincided with Eurozone but peaked 200bp higher! 🙏
As we await the Eurostat inflation announcement (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP) on 11/27, the October 2024 situation👇. HICP, used by ECB to set the Deposit Facility Rate is exactly 2.0%, their #InflationTarget
! But Food inflation is 3.0%; Services inflation 4.0% and Energy (minus) -4.6%!
! But Food inflation is 3.0%; Services inflation 4.0% and Energy (minus) -4.6%!
November 26, 2024 at 9:50 PM
As we await the Eurostat inflation announcement (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP) on 11/27, the October 2024 situation👇. HICP, used by ECB to set the Deposit Facility Rate is exactly 2.0%, their #InflationTarget
! But Food inflation is 3.0%; Services inflation 4.0% and Energy (minus) -4.6%!
! But Food inflation is 3.0%; Services inflation 4.0% and Energy (minus) -4.6%!
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
...being strongly correlated with Eurozone, is higher at its peak than Eurozone inflation at *its* peak (though the peaks coincide). Do goods in the German consumption basket then have longer supply chains, or a greater propensity to get marked up? LVA inflation at its peak is 2X (at ~20%) Eurozone.
November 25, 2024 at 7:57 PM
...being strongly correlated with Eurozone, is higher at its peak than Eurozone inflation at *its* peak (though the peaks coincide). Do goods in the German consumption basket then have longer supply chains, or a greater propensity to get marked up? LVA inflation at its peak is 2X (at ~20%) Eurozone.
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
So of course this is pandemic era and so, supply-shocked inflation. But since CYP inflation peak leads (i.e. comes before) the its peak in the Eurozone by 4-6 months, this would suggest (confirm?) that CYP has supply chains independent of elsewhere in the Eurozone! But German inflation, while...
November 25, 2024 at 7:51 PM
So of course this is pandemic era and so, supply-shocked inflation. But since CYP inflation peak leads (i.e. comes before) the its peak in the Eurozone by 4-6 months, this would suggest (confirm?) that CYP has supply chains independent of elsewhere in the Eurozone! But German inflation, while...
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
DEU and Eurozone inflation 👇. Germany's GDP is ~29% of the Eurozone's, Latvia's is 0.13% and Cyprus' is ~0.08%. LVA and CVP are both Easternmost, LVA in the North and CYP in the South. LVA is separated from the 'main' Eurozone by the non-€ countries of POL, CZE etc; CYP by TUR and the Mediterranean
November 25, 2024 at 1:04 AM
DEU and Eurozone inflation 👇. Germany's GDP is ~29% of the Eurozone's, Latvia's is 0.13% and Cyprus' is ~0.08%. LVA and CVP are both Easternmost, LVA in the North and CYP in the South. LVA is separated from the 'main' Eurozone by the non-€ countries of POL, CZE etc; CYP by TUR and the Mediterranean
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
11/25/24 IFO Germany Business Survey Update: Overall, down over previous month: index of Assessment of Situation down most (relative to Climate and Expectations). Sector-wise: Manufacturing, Services and Construction sentiment down, Trade expectations up slightly.
November 25, 2024 at 8:15 PM
11/25/24 IFO Germany Business Survey Update: Overall, down over previous month: index of Assessment of Situation down most (relative to Climate and Expectations). Sector-wise: Manufacturing, Services and Construction sentiment down, Trade expectations up slightly.
#Eurozone October 2024 inflation figures will drop 11/27/24. A question ever since the 1999 introduction of the euro, and even before: Is the Eurozone an optimal currency area? Let us see how well EU inflation is correlated between the largest economy DEU ⏬ & peripheral economies LVA↙️ & CYP↘️
November 25, 2024 at 12:57 AM
#Eurozone October 2024 inflation figures will drop 11/27/24. A question ever since the 1999 introduction of the euro, and even before: Is the Eurozone an optimal currency area? Let us see how well EU inflation is correlated between the largest economy DEU ⏬ & peripheral economies LVA↙️ & CYP↘️
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
Germany's IFO Institute for Economic Research publishes monthly Business Climate Surveys as leading indicators of economic activity in Manufacturing, Services, Trade & Construction. 10/25/2024 👇; overall sentiment was up since 9/24; but down in Construction. [Update expected 11/25/24]
November 24, 2024 at 11:39 PM
Germany's IFO Institute for Economic Research publishes monthly Business Climate Surveys as leading indicators of economic activity in Manufacturing, Services, Trade & Construction. 10/25/2024 👇; overall sentiment was up since 9/24; but down in Construction. [Update expected 11/25/24]
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
Interesting chart from RBNZ 👇Market has priced in a ~150bp cut for NZ over next 12 months; compared to ~125bp for US over same period (both are at roughly ~4.75% right now). RBNZ is interesting as the first central bank to introduce #InflationTargeting back in 1990! 🙏
November 24, 2024 at 8:53 PM
Interesting chart from RBNZ 👇Market has priced in a ~150bp cut for NZ over next 12 months; compared to ~125bp for US over same period (both are at roughly ~4.75% right now). RBNZ is interesting as the first central bank to introduce #InflationTargeting back in 1990! 🙏
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
2 of 2
...Germany's IFO, China's PMI, and Canada's GDP.
Regarding central banks, we get the Fed minutes and the ECB's indicators of inflation expectations, as well as a New Zealand rate cut and Mexico's inflation report.
#economy #markets #inflation #germany #china #canada #federalreserve #ecb
...Germany's IFO, China's PMI, and Canada's GDP.
Regarding central banks, we get the Fed minutes and the ECB's indicators of inflation expectations, as well as a New Zealand rate cut and Mexico's inflation report.
#economy #markets #inflation #germany #china #canada #federalreserve #ecb
November 24, 2024 at 8:18 PM
2 of 2
...Germany's IFO, China's PMI, and Canada's GDP.
Regarding central banks, we get the Fed minutes and the ECB's indicators of inflation expectations, as well as a New Zealand rate cut and Mexico's inflation report.
#economy #markets #inflation #germany #china #canada #federalreserve #ecb
...Germany's IFO, China's PMI, and Canada's GDP.
Regarding central banks, we get the Fed minutes and the ECB's indicators of inflation expectations, as well as a New Zealand rate cut and Mexico's inflation report.
#economy #markets #inflation #germany #china #canada #federalreserve #ecb
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
With the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, lots of US data will be released in the first three days of the week for the global economy and markets. This includes PCE inflation, various economic activity indicators, and consumer confidence.
Away from that, look for Eurozone inflation,...
1 of 2
Away from that, look for Eurozone inflation,...
1 of 2
November 24, 2024 at 8:17 PM
With the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, lots of US data will be released in the first three days of the week for the global economy and markets. This includes PCE inflation, various economic activity indicators, and consumer confidence.
Away from that, look for Eurozone inflation,...
1 of 2
Away from that, look for Eurozone inflation,...
1 of 2
How does @bsky.app make money? I was wondering! @twgerken.bsky.social's article explains that Bluesky wants to avoid having advertising but might introduce value-added services such as vanity usernames ('custom domain names') or 'subscription features'. www.bbc.com/news/article...
X users jump to Bluesky - but what is it and who owns it?
Bluesky is picking up one million new users every day at its current rate.
www.bbc.com
November 22, 2024 at 1:08 AM
How does @bsky.app make money? I was wondering! @twgerken.bsky.social's article explains that Bluesky wants to avoid having advertising but might introduce value-added services such as vanity usernames ('custom domain names') or 'subscription features'. www.bbc.com/news/article...
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
Absolutely! There’s this great talk with Meredith and Arvind which is such a treat. cdh.princeton.edu/events/2023/...
LLM Forum: Meredith Whittaker with Arvind Narayanan (topic: society)
LLM Forum: Meredith Whittaker with Arvind Narayanan (topic: society)
cdh.princeton.edu
November 18, 2024 at 12:06 PM
Absolutely! There’s this great talk with Meredith and Arvind which is such a treat. cdh.princeton.edu/events/2023/...
Reposted by Satyen Baindur
It is time for the people to run the government, and not the other way around.
- Jimmy Carter, 1976
- Jimmy Carter, 1976
November 18, 2024 at 4:54 PM
It is time for the people to run the government, and not the other way around.
- Jimmy Carter, 1976
- Jimmy Carter, 1976