Sam Huckstep
@samhuckstep.bsky.social
Working on climate, migration, governance & green transition at CGDev. Any views mine.
Pinned
Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable
Every year, high-income countries recruit hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers on temporary visas, handing out what can, in effect, be winning lottery tickets. A six-month stint on a...
www.cgdev.org
New @cgdev.org blog!-
'Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable'
In a nutshell: for low-income populations, short-term, low-skill migration opportunities can be life-changing: the equivalent of winning the lottery for a UK worker.
'Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable'
In a nutshell: for low-income populations, short-term, low-skill migration opportunities can be life-changing: the equivalent of winning the lottery for a UK worker.
A sobering pair of graphs on the UK's ageing/economic future in the FT today, summarising a new report from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.
'The risk is that the long-term debt burden becomes unsustainable, warned the report.'
www.ft.com/content/788e...
'The risk is that the long-term debt burden becomes unsustainable, warned the report.'
www.ft.com/content/788e...
December 19, 2025 at 10:30 AM
A sobering pair of graphs on the UK's ageing/economic future in the FT today, summarising a new report from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.
'The risk is that the long-term debt burden becomes unsustainable, warned the report.'
www.ft.com/content/788e...
'The risk is that the long-term debt burden becomes unsustainable, warned the report.'
www.ft.com/content/788e...
Interesting new work from @cgiar.org/@ifpri.org on 'Migration Propensity Indices': 'tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future.'
Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras
The external and internal Migration Propensity Indices (e-MPI and i-MPI) are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or...
cgspace.cgiar.org
December 18, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Interesting new work from @cgiar.org/@ifpri.org on 'Migration Propensity Indices': 'tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future.'
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
Today marks #InternationalMigrantsDay!
Explore CGD's new interactive map, where experts highlight projects that pair training and migration to expand the clean-energy workforce:
https://go.cgdev.org/3YoNDkA
Explore CGD's new interactive map, where experts highlight projects that pair training and migration to expand the clean-energy workforce:
https://go.cgdev.org/3YoNDkA
December 18, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Today marks #InternationalMigrantsDay!
Explore CGD's new interactive map, where experts highlight projects that pair training and migration to expand the clean-energy workforce:
https://go.cgdev.org/3YoNDkA
Explore CGD's new interactive map, where experts highlight projects that pair training and migration to expand the clean-energy workforce:
https://go.cgdev.org/3YoNDkA
A very striking chart from an excellent new paper by @mclem.org.
Ageing high-income countries have a choice: accept that GDP growth is contingent on migration, or pin their futures on fantastical hopes of huge productivity growth.
www.iza.org/publications...
Ageing high-income countries have a choice: accept that GDP growth is contingent on migration, or pin their futures on fantastical hopes of huge productivity growth.
www.iza.org/publications...
December 18, 2025 at 4:13 PM
A very striking chart from an excellent new paper by @mclem.org.
Ageing high-income countries have a choice: accept that GDP growth is contingent on migration, or pin their futures on fantastical hopes of huge productivity growth.
www.iza.org/publications...
Ageing high-income countries have a choice: accept that GDP growth is contingent on migration, or pin their futures on fantastical hopes of huge productivity growth.
www.iza.org/publications...
In a roundtable on Welsh 'green' skill needs, 'a clear message emerged: North Wales needs more of everything.
There are 'acute shortages in core construction and engineering roles, including welders, electricians, scaffolders, and technicians.'
There are 'acute shortages in core construction and engineering roles, including welders, electricians, scaffolders, and technicians.'
Renewables Skills Roundtable Held in North Wales | FE News
| Renewables Skills Roundtable Held in North Wales
www.fenews.co.uk
December 18, 2025 at 10:57 AM
In a roundtable on Welsh 'green' skill needs, 'a clear message emerged: North Wales needs more of everything.
There are 'acute shortages in core construction and engineering roles, including welders, electricians, scaffolders, and technicians.'
There are 'acute shortages in core construction and engineering roles, including welders, electricians, scaffolders, and technicians.'
This is a horrifying but crucial article on aid cuts.
'In the hospital’s courtyard, another mother... said she was considering an extreme solution. “The thing I think about is committing suicide,” she told ProPublica, “because I heard the U.N. takes care of the kids when the parents are gone.”'
'In the hospital’s courtyard, another mother... said she was considering an extreme solution. “The thing I think about is committing suicide,” she told ProPublica, “because I heard the U.N. takes care of the kids when the parents are gone.”'
NEW: Humanitarian officials staged a last-minute plea to Trump officials at their fancy hotel to re-start food aid $ for a huge refugee camp in Kenya.
The Trumpers blew it off and babies starved.
@annamaria.bsky.social & Brett Murphy
www.propublica.org/article/keny...
The Trumpers blew it off and babies starved.
@annamaria.bsky.social & Brett Murphy
www.propublica.org/article/keny...
December 18, 2025 at 10:43 AM
This is a horrifying but crucial article on aid cuts.
'In the hospital’s courtyard, another mother... said she was considering an extreme solution. “The thing I think about is committing suicide,” she told ProPublica, “because I heard the U.N. takes care of the kids when the parents are gone.”'
'In the hospital’s courtyard, another mother... said she was considering an extreme solution. “The thing I think about is committing suicide,” she told ProPublica, “because I heard the U.N. takes care of the kids when the parents are gone.”'
New @cgdev.org blog!-
'Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable'
In a nutshell: for low-income populations, short-term, low-skill migration opportunities can be life-changing: the equivalent of winning the lottery for a UK worker.
'Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable'
In a nutshell: for low-income populations, short-term, low-skill migration opportunities can be life-changing: the equivalent of winning the lottery for a UK worker.
Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable
Every year, high-income countries recruit hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers on temporary visas, handing out what can, in effect, be winning lottery tickets. A six-month stint on a...
www.cgdev.org
December 16, 2025 at 11:45 AM
New @cgdev.org blog!-
'Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable'
In a nutshell: for low-income populations, short-term, low-skill migration opportunities can be life-changing: the equivalent of winning the lottery for a UK worker.
'Distributing Winning Lottery Tickets: Why Circular Migration Programmes Should Target the Climate Vulnerable'
In a nutshell: for low-income populations, short-term, low-skill migration opportunities can be life-changing: the equivalent of winning the lottery for a UK worker.
'The heat transition is not failing due to a lack of technology, but often due to a lack of skilled workers. Products are available, but installation slots are not.'
HOT OFF THE PRESS: My latest piece on Germany’s energy transition & the heating law.
It already offers a solid path to phase out fossil heating.
What we need: stable funding, better local planning & skilled workers. Cutting complexity instead of endless political debate.
medium.com/@jan.rosenow...
It already offers a solid path to phase out fossil heating.
What we need: stable funding, better local planning & skilled workers. Cutting complexity instead of endless political debate.
medium.com/@jan.rosenow...
German Heating Law: Stability Instead of Perpetual Debate
This is a machine translation of an article Jan Rosenow wrote for Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (Journal for Economic Policy). The…
medium.com
December 15, 2025 at 2:55 PM
'The heat transition is not failing due to a lack of technology, but often due to a lack of skilled workers. Products are available, but installation slots are not.'
A good short case study of a community seeking a planned relocation. But the normal questions are the key sticking points: what's the timeframe? Who pays? Do you rebuild key infrastructure in the meantime?- if so how do officials weigh out costs and benefits?
A story that will become more frequent.
A story that will become more frequent.
"I don't want to come back here again. I don't want to go through what we went through again" - Kwigillingok resident Noah Andrew Sr. after the remnants of Typhoon Halong floated his house 2 miles, with him inside.
www.npr.org/2025/12/15/n...
www.npr.org/2025/12/15/n...
Houses floated away in this Alaska Native village. Now residents want to move
Kwigillingok, Alaska, has long grappled with erosion and flooding. Residents want to move to higher ground, further inland, especially after the remnants of Typhoon Halong damaged nearly every house.
www.npr.org
December 15, 2025 at 12:39 PM
A good short case study of a community seeking a planned relocation. But the normal questions are the key sticking points: what's the timeframe? Who pays? Do you rebuild key infrastructure in the meantime?- if so how do officials weigh out costs and benefits?
A story that will become more frequent.
A story that will become more frequent.
The US has now released its full proposal for changes to information required from applicants for the ESTA visa waiver programme.
Astoundingly, it proposes that ESTA applicants will need to submit DNA information. (Among much else.)
Astoundingly, it proposes that ESTA applicants will need to submit DNA information. (Among much else.)
Agency Information Collection Activities; Revision; Arrival and Departure Record (Form I-94) and Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA)
The Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will be submitting the following information collection request to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review an...
www.federalregister.gov
December 12, 2025 at 10:28 AM
The US has now released its full proposal for changes to information required from applicants for the ESTA visa waiver programme.
Astoundingly, it proposes that ESTA applicants will need to submit DNA information. (Among much else.)
Astoundingly, it proposes that ESTA applicants will need to submit DNA information. (Among much else.)
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
December 9, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
Impact of cuts to skilled worker visas on other government priorities: Natural capital and Decarbonisation: 'No meaningful impacts have been identified.'
Watch this space for CGD research on this subject (probably after Christmas). Our estimates suggest government modelling on this falls far short.
Watch this space for CGD research on this subject (probably after Christmas). Our estimates suggest government modelling on this falls far short.
December 9, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Impact of cuts to skilled worker visas on other government priorities: Natural capital and Decarbonisation: 'No meaningful impacts have been identified.'
Watch this space for CGD research on this subject (probably after Christmas). Our estimates suggest government modelling on this falls far short.
Watch this space for CGD research on this subject (probably after Christmas). Our estimates suggest government modelling on this falls far short.
This is crazy. It's bizarre that the government can prioritise NHS improvement (which includes dentistry!) while leaving such low-hanging fruit untouched. A sheer lack of coherence across departments.
Welcome to Britain, a country so short of dentists that an MP's 87-year-old mum pulled her teeth out with pliers. Also a country with thousands of foreign-qualified dentists who can’t work until they pass an exam so oversubscribed it’s like trying to book Glasto tickets. www.ft.com/content/f4e5...
December 9, 2025 at 12:01 PM
This is crazy. It's bizarre that the government can prioritise NHS improvement (which includes dentistry!) while leaving such low-hanging fruit untouched. A sheer lack of coherence across departments.
'Cuisine diversity, in other words, is not just about taste. It is about where families settled, which high streets remained affordable long enough for a second generation to open businesses, and which parts of the city experienced displacement before culinary ecosystems could mature.'
Really cool.
Really cool.
December 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
'Cuisine diversity, in other words, is not just about taste. It is about where families settled, which high streets remained affordable long enough for a second generation to open businesses, and which parts of the city experienced displacement before culinary ecosystems could mature.'
Really cool.
Really cool.
The Energy Security and Net Zero Committee of the UK Parliament has put out an excellent report digging into whether the supply of labour for the UK's green transition meets its needs.
Conclusion: 'The supply of skilled labour does not currently match the levels of demand expected to be required.'
Conclusion: 'The supply of skilled labour does not currently match the levels of demand expected to be required.'
December 8, 2025 at 11:10 AM
The Energy Security and Net Zero Committee of the UK Parliament has put out an excellent report digging into whether the supply of labour for the UK's green transition meets its needs.
Conclusion: 'The supply of skilled labour does not currently match the levels of demand expected to be required.'
Conclusion: 'The supply of skilled labour does not currently match the levels of demand expected to be required.'
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
Agree with every word of this
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
November 28, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Agree with every word of this
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
The NYT has an excellent deep-dive today into the political economy of Kenya's labour export model, focused on the corridor to Saudi Arabia.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
Kenyan Workers Get Abused Abroad. The President’s Family and Allies Profit.
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
The NYT has an excellent deep-dive today into the political economy of Kenya's labour export model, focused on the corridor to Saudi Arabia.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
Interesting findings from a new JMP (h/t @lgilbert.co), 'The impact of the 2015 earthquake on internal and international migration in Nepal'-
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
Manandhar, Shailee_JMP.pdf
drive.google.com
November 11, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Interesting findings from a new JMP (h/t @lgilbert.co), 'The impact of the 2015 earthquake on internal and international migration in Nepal'-
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
This is a really interesting new paper. It's modelling, and has a lot of assumptions, but some very compelling broad-sweep estimates.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
What if there are not enough skilled workers for the energy transition?👷♀️👨🏭
Our new report shows how labour shortages may delay renewable energy deployment and raise emissions. It also introduces the Labour Market Transition Potential Index to assess workforce readiness across countries.
Our new report shows how labour shortages may delay renewable energy deployment and raise emissions. It also introduces the Labour Market Transition Potential Index to assess workforce readiness across countries.
The impacts of skills shortages on global power sector emissions
This study explores how shortages of skilled workers for the energy transition could undermine global emissions pathways. Using a novel model linking labour supply and renewable energy development, it...
bit.ly
October 31, 2025 at 10:48 AM
This is a really interesting new paper. It's modelling, and has a lot of assumptions, but some very compelling broad-sweep estimates.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper: Christian Dustmann, Sebastian Otten, Uta Schönberg and Jan Stuhler provide an empirical framework to decompose the regional effects of immigration on labor markets. A thread 🧵 below 👇
October 22, 2025 at 12:07 PM
🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper: Christian Dustmann, Sebastian Otten, Uta Schönberg and Jan Stuhler provide an empirical framework to decompose the regional effects of immigration on labor markets. A thread 🧵 below 👇
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
One manifestation of Labour’s “everything is polling” approach to government is that they visibly think of policy not in departmental solos but in issue polling silos. Your immigration choices and your levies on business are the same picture!
B2 or not B2? Some thoughts on the government’s latest announcement on immigration (and why the most striking bit isn’t the posturing about English):
Labour’s big blind spot in UK immigration policy
To make it seem tough on legal routes, the government introduces radical measures with uncertain effects
www.ft.com
October 15, 2025 at 10:14 AM
One manifestation of Labour’s “everything is polling” approach to government is that they visibly think of policy not in departmental solos but in issue polling silos. Your immigration choices and your levies on business are the same picture!
Fascinating update on Kenyan labour export efforts-
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
Strengthening Kenya’s Global Labour Diplomacy Through Strategic Partnerships - The Coast Media Group
By Andrew Mwangura Email, thecoastnewspaper@gmail.com Kenya’s recent diplomatic strides in the realm of labour mobility...
www.thecoast.co.ke
October 14, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Fascinating update on Kenyan labour export efforts-
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
Woah- this is outside my normal field of vision, but the expulsion of 770,000 migrants from Russia would have big consequences. Most are from Central Asia- and some of these countries are highly reliant on remittance flows from Russia.
770,000 migrants told to leave Russia
Speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin on October 13 announced that 770,000 migrants, who largely hail from Central Asia, ...
www.intellinews.com
October 14, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Woah- this is outside my normal field of vision, but the expulsion of 770,000 migrants from Russia would have big consequences. Most are from Central Asia- and some of these countries are highly reliant on remittance flows from Russia.
Interesting FT piece on import of Chinese 'green' workers into Europe-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
China sends 2,000 workers to build battery power in Europe
Massive labour import to Spain spotlights EU’s dependence on Beijing’s EV tech
on.ft.com
October 8, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Interesting FT piece on import of Chinese 'green' workers into Europe-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
A good summary of the domestic vs. international recruitment tradeoff in a new @ciob.bsky.social report- here focused on the construction sector, but relevant to policy-driven decarbonisation labour demand.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.
October 7, 2025 at 10:09 AM
A good summary of the domestic vs. international recruitment tradeoff in a new @ciob.bsky.social report- here focused on the construction sector, but relevant to policy-driven decarbonisation labour demand.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.