Ryan McCrystal
@ryanmccrystal.bsky.social
College football & the NFL Draft @ Sharp Football Analysis | Previously: ESPN Stats & Info, Bleacher Report, numberFire
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/author/ryan-mccrystal/
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/author/ryan-mccrystal/
Pinned
Ryan McCrystal
@ryanmccrystal.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Spent some time building the ultimate college football starter pack (in spreadsheet to avoid 150 limit).
Everyone is organized by conference and school.
Now I need your help sharing this and filling in the blanks. Let me know who I need to add!
🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Everyone is organized by conference and school.
Now I need your help sharing this and filling in the blanks. Let me know who I need to add!
🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Georgia's pass rush hasn't been great, but it should be able to get to Arch Manning on Saturday.
Texas ranks 119th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
If the Horns can't protect Arch, it could be a long night for Sark's squad in Athens.
Check out my full Texas/Georgia preview here:
Texas ranks 119th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
If the Horns can't protect Arch, it could be a long night for Sark's squad in Athens.
Check out my full Texas/Georgia preview here:
Texas vs. Georgia: Week 12 Betting Pick & Prediction
We give you our college football prediction for Georgia vs. Texas when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 12 of the 2025 NCAA season.
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Georgia's pass rush hasn't been great, but it should be able to get to Arch Manning on Saturday.
Texas ranks 119th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
If the Horns can't protect Arch, it could be a long night for Sark's squad in Athens.
Check out my full Texas/Georgia preview here:
Texas ranks 119th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
If the Horns can't protect Arch, it could be a long night for Sark's squad in Athens.
Check out my full Texas/Georgia preview here:
Oklahoma's defense ranks 124th in ball-hawk rate
A surprising weakness of an otherwise strong defense
A surprising weakness of an otherwise strong defense
November 13, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Oklahoma's defense ranks 124th in ball-hawk rate
A surprising weakness of an otherwise strong defense
A surprising weakness of an otherwise strong defense
Reposted by Ryan McCrystal
Public records from one school's head coaching search committee accidentally revealed how they're planning to circumvent public records laws during their coaching search
You can probably guess the school from the art, but read it now in this week's FOIAball!
www.foiaball.com/p/virginia-t...
You can probably guess the school from the art, but read it now in this week's FOIAball!
www.foiaball.com/p/virginia-t...
Head coach search committees are dodging accountability
Public records reveal how schools circumvent public records. Oops!
www.foiaball.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Public records from one school's head coaching search committee accidentally revealed how they're planning to circumvent public records laws during their coaching search
You can probably guess the school from the art, but read it now in this week's FOIAball!
www.foiaball.com/p/virginia-t...
You can probably guess the school from the art, but read it now in this week's FOIAball!
www.foiaball.com/p/virginia-t...
Reposted by Ryan McCrystal
Pitt will be starting a true freshman quarterback with no pass protection against Notre Dame's defense.
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Week 12 Betting Pick & Prediction
We give you our college football prediction for Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 12 of the 2025 NCAA season.
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Pitt will be starting a true freshman quarterback with no pass protection against Notre Dame's defense.
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
Pitt will be starting a true freshman quarterback with no pass protection against Notre Dame's defense.
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Week 12 Betting Pick & Prediction
We give you our college football prediction for Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 12 of the 2025 NCAA season.
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Pitt will be starting a true freshman quarterback with no pass protection against Notre Dame's defense.
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
Good luck!
Opponent-adjusted numbers:
Pitt - ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
ND - ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Check out the rest of my matchup preview here:
The scenario Rece Davis just suggested of Miami being the ACC's lone CFP representative despite not winning the conference is definitely possible.
I laid out some scenarios for Duke to go 7-5 and win the ACC here:
I laid out some scenarios for Duke to go 7-5 and win the ACC here:
If Duke loses to UVA but then beats Wake and UNC
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
November 12, 2025 at 12:23 AM
The scenario Rece Davis just suggested of Miami being the ACC's lone CFP representative despite not winning the conference is definitely possible.
I laid out some scenarios for Duke to go 7-5 and win the ACC here:
I laid out some scenarios for Duke to go 7-5 and win the ACC here:
This is the 3rd straight year Texas makes an appearance in the CFP Top 10 under Steve Sarkisian.
They had 0 appearances in the top 10 under Tom Herman and Charlie Strong.
They had 0 appearances in the top 10 under Tom Herman and Charlie Strong.
November 12, 2025 at 12:16 AM
This is the 3rd straight year Texas makes an appearance in the CFP Top 10 under Steve Sarkisian.
They had 0 appearances in the top 10 under Tom Herman and Charlie Strong.
They had 0 appearances in the top 10 under Tom Herman and Charlie Strong.
Cincinnati appears in the CFP rankings for the first time under Scott Satterfield.
Their last appearance was in 2022 under Luke Fickell.
Their last appearance was in 2022 under Luke Fickell.
November 12, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Cincinnati appears in the CFP rankings for the first time under Scott Satterfield.
Their last appearance was in 2022 under Luke Fickell.
Their last appearance was in 2022 under Luke Fickell.
Miami is the highest ranked ACC team with will be in this week's projected bracket... despite only a very small chance of actually winning the conference. They need a bunch of teams to lose and some of them twice.
November 12, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Miami is the highest ranked ACC team with will be in this week's projected bracket... despite only a very small chance of actually winning the conference. They need a bunch of teams to lose and some of them twice.
South Florida is in the CFP rankings for the first time in program history at No. 24
November 12, 2025 at 12:09 AM
South Florida is in the CFP rankings for the first time in program history at No. 24
Here’s my best guess what we get from the committee tonight
Here's my best guess what the committee's bracket will look like on Tuesday
- A&M jumps Indiana after adding another quality win
- Texas Tech jumps two spots
- GT jumps UVA as top-ranked ACC team
- Tulane replaces Memphis as G5 rep
- BYU out, Texas in
- A&M jumps Indiana after adding another quality win
- Texas Tech jumps two spots
- GT jumps UVA as top-ranked ACC team
- Tulane replaces Memphis as G5 rep
- BYU out, Texas in
November 11, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Here’s my best guess what we get from the committee tonight
Reposted by Ryan McCrystal
Not playing fast, a combination of on the field more because their defense isn’t as good, and the offense doesn’t have as many explosive plays. They’re doing better in the run game and shorter passing game.
November 11, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Not playing fast, a combination of on the field more because their defense isn’t as good, and the offense doesn’t have as many explosive plays. They’re doing better in the run game and shorter passing game.
Add Texas Tech (73.7 plays per game), Virginia (73.2) and Georgia (72.7) to the list of contenders who should have some concern about added wear and tear
Not sure why UGA is playing so fast this year. That's a big change. 66th in plays/gm last year to 16th this year
Not sure why UGA is playing so fast this year. That's a big change. 66th in plays/gm last year to 16th this year
Ole Miss' offense is running 74.0 plays per game, 8th most.
I don't think this is unrelated to Lane Kiffin's history of taking bad losses in November, and is something to keep in mind as they end the season with Florida and then the Egg Bowl.
I don't think this is unrelated to Lane Kiffin's history of taking bad losses in November, and is something to keep in mind as they end the season with Florida and then the Egg Bowl.
November 11, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Add Texas Tech (73.7 plays per game), Virginia (73.2) and Georgia (72.7) to the list of contenders who should have some concern about added wear and tear
Not sure why UGA is playing so fast this year. That's a big change. 66th in plays/gm last year to 16th this year
Not sure why UGA is playing so fast this year. That's a big change. 66th in plays/gm last year to 16th this year
Ole Miss' offense is running 74.0 plays per game, 8th most.
I don't think this is unrelated to Lane Kiffin's history of taking bad losses in November, and is something to keep in mind as they end the season with Florida and then the Egg Bowl.
I don't think this is unrelated to Lane Kiffin's history of taking bad losses in November, and is something to keep in mind as they end the season with Florida and then the Egg Bowl.
November 11, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Ole Miss' offense is running 74.0 plays per game, 8th most.
I don't think this is unrelated to Lane Kiffin's history of taking bad losses in November, and is something to keep in mind as they end the season with Florida and then the Egg Bowl.
I don't think this is unrelated to Lane Kiffin's history of taking bad losses in November, and is something to keep in mind as they end the season with Florida and then the Egg Bowl.
There's been some recent pushback to the praise of Ohio State's defense due to the relatively easy schedule.
Statistically, it's the best defense by a such a huge margin the level of competition argument argument just doesn't hold up.
Statistically, it's the best defense by a such a huge margin the level of competition argument argument just doesn't hold up.
November 11, 2025 at 4:00 PM
There's been some recent pushback to the praise of Ohio State's defense due to the relatively easy schedule.
Statistically, it's the best defense by a such a huge margin the level of competition argument argument just doesn't hold up.
Statistically, it's the best defense by a such a huge margin the level of competition argument argument just doesn't hold up.
I watched the original Planet of the Apes for the first time last night.
Aside from the silly ape costumes, it held up incredibly well. Maybe too well actually.
Deeply depressing how relevant the messages of the movie are almost 60 years later.
Aside from the silly ape costumes, it held up incredibly well. Maybe too well actually.
Deeply depressing how relevant the messages of the movie are almost 60 years later.
November 11, 2025 at 2:46 PM
I watched the original Planet of the Apes for the first time last night.
Aside from the silly ape costumes, it held up incredibly well. Maybe too well actually.
Deeply depressing how relevant the messages of the movie are almost 60 years later.
Aside from the silly ape costumes, it held up incredibly well. Maybe too well actually.
Deeply depressing how relevant the messages of the movie are almost 60 years later.
Reposted by Ryan McCrystal
If Duke loses to UVA but then beats Wake and UNC
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
November 10, 2025 at 6:48 PM
If Duke loses to UVA but then beats Wake and UNC
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
Reposted by Ryan McCrystal
Here's my post Week 11 Top 25
21-25 was so hard to figure out this week. There's about 12 teams in the mix and none of them have much of a resume.
21-25 was so hard to figure out this week. There's about 12 teams in the mix and none of them have much of a resume.
November 10, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Here's my post Week 11 Top 25
21-25 was so hard to figure out this week. There's about 12 teams in the mix and none of them have much of a resume.
21-25 was so hard to figure out this week. There's about 12 teams in the mix and none of them have much of a resume.
Reposted by Ryan McCrystal
Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are!
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
November 10, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are!
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
Running through all the Big 12 title game scenarios and it looks like Utah holds a significant edge based on the common conference opponent win % tiebreaker.
Utah is very likely to hold that tiebreaker over BYU, ASU and Cincinnati
Utah is very likely to hold that tiebreaker over BYU, ASU and Cincinnati
November 10, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Running through all the Big 12 title game scenarios and it looks like Utah holds a significant edge based on the common conference opponent win % tiebreaker.
Utah is very likely to hold that tiebreaker over BYU, ASU and Cincinnati
Utah is very likely to hold that tiebreaker over BYU, ASU and Cincinnati
Both teams who drafted a QB in the first round have now fired their coach.
It’s incredible how bad NFL owners are at running their team. Stop letting lame duck coaches participate in selecting your next QB.
It’s incredible how bad NFL owners are at running their team. Stop letting lame duck coaches participate in selecting your next QB.
November 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Both teams who drafted a QB in the first round have now fired their coach.
It’s incredible how bad NFL owners are at running their team. Stop letting lame duck coaches participate in selecting your next QB.
It’s incredible how bad NFL owners are at running their team. Stop letting lame duck coaches participate in selecting your next QB.
If Duke loses to UVA but then beats Wake and UNC
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
November 10, 2025 at 6:48 PM
If Duke loses to UVA but then beats Wake and UNC
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
Here's what needs to happen for 7-5 Duke to make the ACC title game*:
1) LOU loses again (to CLEM or SMU)
2) SMU loses again (to LOU or CAL)
3) Either Pitt beats GT or VT beats UVA
That's not far fetched AT ALL
Here is the incredibly realistic scenario where Duke goes 7-5 and makes it to the ACC title game.
The only notable upset required is Virginia Tech beating Virginia.
The only notable upset required is Virginia Tech beating Virginia.
November 10, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Here is the incredibly realistic scenario where Duke goes 7-5 and makes it to the ACC title game.
The only notable upset required is Virginia Tech beating Virginia.
The only notable upset required is Virginia Tech beating Virginia.
The Big Ten Championship game will determine the No. 1 seed in the CFP and the Heisman Trophy.
November 10, 2025 at 4:08 PM
The Big Ten Championship game will determine the No. 1 seed in the CFP and the Heisman Trophy.
Reposted by Ryan McCrystal
Kyle Kingsbury is not a journalist. He is not an op-ed writer.
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
November 9, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Kyle Kingsbury is not a journalist. He is not an op-ed writer.
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...