Reverse Enigma
@reverseenigma.bsky.social
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Reverse Enigma
@reverseenigma.bsky.social
· Aug 11
The New NBA CBA: Panic, Reality, and the Game Behind the Rules
Separating Fact from Fiction
open.substack.com
Just launched my Substack 🏀
First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
New article out: a broad look at my Top 20 guys for the 2026 draft.
hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/early-2026...
#NBASKY
hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/early-2026...
#NBASKY
Early 2026 NBA Draft Big Board: Top 20 Prospect Overview
The 2026 NBA draft class is shaping up to be an exciting group, headlined by elite talent across positions.
hardscreenherald.substack.com
October 18, 2025 at 7:34 PM
New article out: a broad look at my Top 20 guys for the 2026 draft.
hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/early-2026...
#NBASKY
hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/early-2026...
#NBASKY
“Everyone runs pick-and-roll and jacks threes.” Kinda… but not really. I clustered team styles from iso/DHO/PnR to transition + O-glass and found 11 distinct identities. Dive in: open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... #NBASKY
Thirty Teams, Eleven Dialects
Clustering playtypes to decode how each offense speaks
open.substack.com
October 10, 2025 at 5:19 PM
“Everyone runs pick-and-roll and jacks threes.” Kinda… but not really. I clustered team styles from iso/DHO/PnR to transition + O-glass and found 11 distinct identities. Dive in: open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... #NBASKY
New article up:
LASER (shooting threat, not just %) + BOOST (team spacing compounding).
Top LASER seasons: 2015–16 Curry, 2014–15 Korver, 2024–25 LaVine.
Top BOOST teams: 2023–25 Celtics, 2017–18 Rockets, 2016–17 Cavs.
Full piece + interactive tables: tinyurl.com/yck7n5u4
LASER (shooting threat, not just %) + BOOST (team spacing compounding).
Top LASER seasons: 2015–16 Curry, 2014–15 Korver, 2024–25 LaVine.
Top BOOST teams: 2023–25 Celtics, 2017–18 Rockets, 2016–17 Cavs.
Full piece + interactive tables: tinyurl.com/yck7n5u4
LASER: A Metric for Capturing Shooting Threat and Spacing
Why 3-Point Percentage Falls Short as a Threat Metric
tinyurl.com
September 19, 2025 at 3:40 AM
New article up:
LASER (shooting threat, not just %) + BOOST (team spacing compounding).
Top LASER seasons: 2015–16 Curry, 2014–15 Korver, 2024–25 LaVine.
Top BOOST teams: 2023–25 Celtics, 2017–18 Rockets, 2016–17 Cavs.
Full piece + interactive tables: tinyurl.com/yck7n5u4
LASER (shooting threat, not just %) + BOOST (team spacing compounding).
Top LASER seasons: 2015–16 Curry, 2014–15 Korver, 2024–25 LaVine.
Top BOOST teams: 2023–25 Celtics, 2017–18 Rockets, 2016–17 Cavs.
Full piece + interactive tables: tinyurl.com/yck7n5u4
Just published: a deep dive into my player style clustering tool. From Dragic’s 2014 breakout to Giannis’s one-of-one profile, from OKC’s balance to the Lakers’ gaps - mapping the NBA by how guys actually play. Shoutout @gabriel1200.bsky.social for hosting the tool.
tinyurl.com/2p9rp8wm
#NBASKY
tinyurl.com/2p9rp8wm
#NBASKY
From Dragic to Giannis: A Data-Driven Map of NBA Play Styles
Clustering player seasons shows who plays alike, and what teams are missing
open.substack.com
September 12, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Just published: a deep dive into my player style clustering tool. From Dragic’s 2014 breakout to Giannis’s one-of-one profile, from OKC’s balance to the Lakers’ gaps - mapping the NBA by how guys actually play. Shoutout @gabriel1200.bsky.social for hosting the tool.
tinyurl.com/2p9rp8wm
#NBASKY
tinyurl.com/2p9rp8wm
#NBASKY
Just dropped the new Shot-Making Model 2.0 - now covering 1996–2025 with play-by-play data, arena bias fixes, and era adjustments.
Curry ‘16 is still untouchable, KD has multiple all-time seasons, and some hidden gems pop up too.
🔗 hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/shot-quali...
#NBAKSY
Curry ‘16 is still untouchable, KD has multiple all-time seasons, and some hidden gems pop up too.
🔗 hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/shot-quali...
#NBAKSY
Shot Quality in High Definition: The Play-by-Play Upgrade
Recap: The Old Tracking-Based Model (Bins and Baselines)
hardscreenherald.substack.com
September 8, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Just dropped the new Shot-Making Model 2.0 - now covering 1996–2025 with play-by-play data, arena bias fixes, and era adjustments.
Curry ‘16 is still untouchable, KD has multiple all-time seasons, and some hidden gems pop up too.
🔗 hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/shot-quali...
#NBAKSY
Curry ‘16 is still untouchable, KD has multiple all-time seasons, and some hidden gems pop up too.
🔗 hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/shot-quali...
#NBAKSY
Gonna finish the write up on shotquality model v2 soon. This version goes back to the 96-97 season, and should be more comprehensive. Here are the top guys from that season
September 3, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Gonna finish the write up on shotquality model v2 soon. This version goes back to the 96-97 season, and should be more comprehensive. Here are the top guys from that season
Reposted by Reverse Enigma
New release for #NBAKSY, just in time for your morning coffee.
courtsketch.com/shotmaking
This is CourtSketchs's shotmaking page. Based upon @reverseenigma.bsky.social 's modeling work, it allows you to assess player shotmaking relative to shot quality for any player season over the last 12 years.🧵
courtsketch.com/shotmaking
This is CourtSketchs's shotmaking page. Based upon @reverseenigma.bsky.social 's modeling work, it allows you to assess player shotmaking relative to shot quality for any player season over the last 12 years.🧵
August 22, 2025 at 2:25 PM
New release for #NBAKSY, just in time for your morning coffee.
courtsketch.com/shotmaking
This is CourtSketchs's shotmaking page. Based upon @reverseenigma.bsky.social 's modeling work, it allows you to assess player shotmaking relative to shot quality for any player season over the last 12 years.🧵
courtsketch.com/shotmaking
This is CourtSketchs's shotmaking page. Based upon @reverseenigma.bsky.social 's modeling work, it allows you to assess player shotmaking relative to shot quality for any player season over the last 12 years.🧵
New article on trying to measure Shotmaking and Shot Quality open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... The data will be available soon on nbavisuals.com
Beyond the Box Score: How Good Are You Really At Making Shots
Who actually adds points once you account for the kinds of shots they take?
open.substack.com
August 21, 2025 at 8:53 PM
New article on trying to measure Shotmaking and Shot Quality open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... The data will be available soon on nbavisuals.com
New piece is up: on Tyrese Haliburton, the echoes of John Stockton, and why he feels so different from other stars.
Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t attack you so much as he takes what you give him.
open.substack.com
August 17, 2025 at 5:53 PM
New piece is up: on Tyrese Haliburton, the echoes of John Stockton, and why he feels so different from other stars.
Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
Just launched my Substack 🏀
First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
The New NBA CBA: Panic, Reality, and the Game Behind the Rules
Separating Fact from Fiction
open.substack.com
August 11, 2025 at 10:56 PM
Just launched my Substack 🏀
First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
Inspired by @iztokfranko.bsky.social latest post, wanted to see how the western conference teams looked broken down using the clusters from nbavisuals.com/player_style
Cluster names still need some work.
Cluster names still need some work.
July 31, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Inspired by @iztokfranko.bsky.social latest post, wanted to see how the western conference teams looked broken down using the clusters from nbavisuals.com/player_style
Cluster names still need some work.
Cluster names still need some work.
Reposted by Reverse Enigma
How are the top 10 teams in the West really built?
I ran a clustering model on 300+ players to break down offensive archetypes. And reveal strengths, gaps, and roster building shifts from last season.
Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, OKC, Rockets... all included👇
digginbasketball.substack.com/p/nba-west-p...
I ran a clustering model on 300+ players to break down offensive archetypes. And reveal strengths, gaps, and roster building shifts from last season.
Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, OKC, Rockets... all included👇
digginbasketball.substack.com/p/nba-west-p...
How the West Is Built
A data-driven look at player archetypes for the top 10 Western Conference contenders including the Lakers and Mavericks
digginbasketball.substack.com
July 30, 2025 at 3:49 PM
How are the top 10 teams in the West really built?
I ran a clustering model on 300+ players to break down offensive archetypes. And reveal strengths, gaps, and roster building shifts from last season.
Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, OKC, Rockets... all included👇
digginbasketball.substack.com/p/nba-west-p...
I ran a clustering model on 300+ players to break down offensive archetypes. And reveal strengths, gaps, and roster building shifts from last season.
Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, OKC, Rockets... all included👇
digginbasketball.substack.com/p/nba-west-p...
Reposted by Reverse Enigma
New feature out!
This is Court Sketches's playlist tool.
Give it any team, player and date range combination across the last 5 seasons, and it will serve you a stylized playlist of filterable clips, one you can share with the click of a button. Let me know what you think!
nbavisuals.com/playlist
This is Court Sketches's playlist tool.
Give it any team, player and date range combination across the last 5 seasons, and it will serve you a stylized playlist of filterable clips, one you can share with the click of a button. Let me know what you think!
nbavisuals.com/playlist
July 1, 2025 at 7:59 PM
New feature out!
This is Court Sketches's playlist tool.
Give it any team, player and date range combination across the last 5 seasons, and it will serve you a stylized playlist of filterable clips, one you can share with the click of a button. Let me know what you think!
nbavisuals.com/playlist
This is Court Sketches's playlist tool.
Give it any team, player and date range combination across the last 5 seasons, and it will serve you a stylized playlist of filterable clips, one you can share with the click of a button. Let me know what you think!
nbavisuals.com/playlist
The draft cycle continues. Very early look at my board for 2026. Should be a fun class
June 29, 2025 at 3:53 PM
The draft cycle continues. Very early look at my board for 2026. Should be a fun class
Some second round steals I loved:
Charlotte: Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Hornets grab the draft’s most NBA ready rim protector plus a connective wing who moves the ball and defends. Nice mix of spacing and interior presence. Been a while since I thought Charlotte nailed the draft. Good change
Charlotte: Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Hornets grab the draft’s most NBA ready rim protector plus a connective wing who moves the ball and defends. Nice mix of spacing and interior presence. Been a while since I thought Charlotte nailed the draft. Good change
June 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Some second round steals I loved:
Charlotte: Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Hornets grab the draft’s most NBA ready rim protector plus a connective wing who moves the ball and defends. Nice mix of spacing and interior presence. Been a while since I thought Charlotte nailed the draft. Good change
Charlotte: Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Hornets grab the draft’s most NBA ready rim protector plus a connective wing who moves the ball and defends. Nice mix of spacing and interior presence. Been a while since I thought Charlotte nailed the draft. Good change
Some of my favorite draft fits so far:
Cedric Coward to Memphis is pretty seamless. With Bane gone they needed a rangy wing who can spot up, cut, and guard 1-3.
Cedric Coward to Memphis is pretty seamless. With Bane gone they needed a rangy wing who can spot up, cut, and guard 1-3.
June 26, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Some of my favorite draft fits so far:
Cedric Coward to Memphis is pretty seamless. With Bane gone they needed a rangy wing who can spot up, cut, and guard 1-3.
Cedric Coward to Memphis is pretty seamless. With Bane gone they needed a rangy wing who can spot up, cut, and guard 1-3.
Fun first day of the draft! Wild and sometimes baffling choices all over. Twenty-six of my top 30 prospects are gone. Here are the four still waiting:
June 26, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Fun first day of the draft! Wild and sometimes baffling choices all over. Twenty-six of my top 30 prospects are gone. Here are the four still waiting:
Final draft board is set. More movement than expected: some late risers, a few tough drops. Took a step back to reassess the big picture. Tried to balance film, data, and role projection, and especially who I trust to earn a second contract in the new CBA.
🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
NBA Big Board 2025
docs.google.com
June 24, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Final draft board is set. More movement than expected: some late risers, a few tough drops. Took a step back to reassess the big picture. Tried to balance film, data, and role projection, and especially who I trust to earn a second contract in the new CBA.
🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Reverse Enigma
New tool out, in collaboration with Owen Phillips
of the f5!
This is our League Rankings tool. Based on a graphic from a recent f5 piece, it allows you to select up to 80+ stats, and see where every team ranked in that stat for the past 12 nba seasons.
nbavisuals.com/leagueranks
Lmk what you think!
of the f5!
This is our League Rankings tool. Based on a graphic from a recent f5 piece, it allows you to select up to 80+ stats, and see where every team ranked in that stat for the past 12 nba seasons.
nbavisuals.com/leagueranks
Lmk what you think!
June 20, 2025 at 11:40 PM
New tool out, in collaboration with Owen Phillips
of the f5!
This is our League Rankings tool. Based on a graphic from a recent f5 piece, it allows you to select up to 80+ stats, and see where every team ranked in that stat for the past 12 nba seasons.
nbavisuals.com/leagueranks
Lmk what you think!
of the f5!
This is our League Rankings tool. Based on a graphic from a recent f5 piece, it allows you to select up to 80+ stats, and see where every team ranked in that stat for the past 12 nba seasons.
nbavisuals.com/leagueranks
Lmk what you think!
With the new CBA, it’s even more vital for teams to find contributors on cost-controlled deals. We’ve seen guys like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jaylen Wells carve out early roles. Here are some 2025 prospects outside the top 30 who I think could do the same.
🔗 www.rookiescale.com/2025-consens...
🔗 www.rookiescale.com/2025-consens...
2025 NBA Draft Consensus Big Board - Rookie Scale
Weighted aggregation of mainstream and #DraftTwitter big boards and mock drafts.
www.rookiescale.com
June 14, 2025 at 10:45 PM
With the new CBA, it’s even more vital for teams to find contributors on cost-controlled deals. We’ve seen guys like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jaylen Wells carve out early roles. Here are some 2025 prospects outside the top 30 who I think could do the same.
🔗 www.rookiescale.com/2025-consens...
🔗 www.rookiescale.com/2025-consens...
Some rambling thoughts on Tyrese Haliburton and why he feels so different from your typical star guard 🧵
June 13, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Some rambling thoughts on Tyrese Haliburton and why he feels so different from your typical star guard 🧵
Reposted by Reverse Enigma
Some thoughts on 18 guys who I think might have a chance to be useful for the teams that draft them.
intheno.substack.com/p/18-prospec...
intheno.substack.com/p/18-prospec...
18 Prospects Who Might Become Something
The NBA draft is endlessly fascinating for fans, analysts, and executives alike.
intheno.substack.com
June 8, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Some thoughts on 18 guys who I think might have a chance to be useful for the teams that draft them.
intheno.substack.com/p/18-prospec...
intheno.substack.com/p/18-prospec...
Everyone talks about Collin Murray-Boyles’ jumper like it’s the big swing skill. But I think that misses the point. His path to NBA value for me isn’t about turning into a shooter: it’s about tightening his handle, improving his finishing, and expanding his scoring craft.
June 11, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Everyone talks about Collin Murray-Boyles’ jumper like it’s the big swing skill. But I think that misses the point. His path to NBA value for me isn’t about turning into a shooter: it’s about tightening his handle, improving his finishing, and expanding his scoring craft.
Updated my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board: now a full Top 100.
It blends film-based scouting with a machine learning model projecting 5-year EPM. 45+ full reports linked, with tiers, roles, swing skills, and outcome comps.
Check it out: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Feedback welcome.
It blends film-based scouting with a machine learning model projecting 5-year EPM. 45+ full reports linked, with tiers, roles, swing skills, and outcome comps.
Check it out: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Feedback welcome.
NBA Big Board 2025
docs.google.com
June 8, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Updated my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board: now a full Top 100.
It blends film-based scouting with a machine learning model projecting 5-year EPM. 45+ full reports linked, with tiers, roles, swing skills, and outcome comps.
Check it out: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Feedback welcome.
It blends film-based scouting with a machine learning model projecting 5-year EPM. 45+ full reports linked, with tiers, roles, swing skills, and outcome comps.
Check it out: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Feedback welcome.
📝 Just dropped my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board.
Every prospect is tiered, with projected roles, swing skills, and NBA outcome ranges (low/median/high). Click any name for a full scouting report.
Check it out here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Open for feedback or debate.
Every prospect is tiered, with projected roles, swing skills, and NBA outcome ranges (low/median/high). Click any name for a full scouting report.
Check it out here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Open for feedback or debate.
NBA Big Board 2025
docs.google.com
May 25, 2025 at 10:37 PM
📝 Just dropped my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board.
Every prospect is tiered, with projected roles, swing skills, and NBA outcome ranges (low/median/high). Click any name for a full scouting report.
Check it out here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Open for feedback or debate.
Every prospect is tiered, with projected roles, swing skills, and NBA outcome ranges (low/median/high). Click any name for a full scouting report.
Check it out here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Open for feedback or debate.