Rajiv Sethi
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rajivsethi.bsky.social
Rajiv Sethi
@rajivsethi.bsky.social
2.8K followers 930 following 470 posts
Economics | Barnard | Columbia | Santa Fe Institute | http://www.columbia.edu/~rs328/ | https://rajivsethi.substack.com/ | https://tinyurl.com/shadowsofdoubt
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Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
casbsstanford.bsky.social
Nice to see CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social represented in this list of notable research
February 3, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
ssrn.bsky.social
Check out the latest from the SSRN #blog which includes a selection of the latest research on #cryptocurreny submitted to SSRN in 2025.

Read more: spkl.io/63324ASWYe

#AcademicChatter #crypto
The Latest Research on Cryptocurrency
This list includes a selection of the latest research on cryptocurrency posted to SSRN in 2025. On the Impossibility of Transparent and Decentralized DeFi Trading by Hanna Halaburda (New York Unive…
spkl.io
February 2, 2026 at 12:25 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
PPE Lecture Series: Rajiv Sethi (Columbia) | U-M LSA Philosophy, Politics and Economics share.google/MonOg0POYBSd...
All Events | U-M LSA Philosophy, Politics and Economics
share.google
January 30, 2026 at 10:06 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
casbsstanford.bsky.social
Sometimes history is not a good guide to the future.

CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains why predictive markets may outperform polls & poll-based statistical models. Watch, then go to Rajiv's Substack essay on this: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/guessing-g...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YVc...
CNN appearance with Michael Smerconish on January 17, 2026
YouTube video by Rajiv Sethi
www.youtube.com
January 26, 2026 at 10:43 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on prediction markets, spoofing, and forecasting accuracy:

open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Guessing Games
In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of over $400,000 (on a $32,000 investment) in just ...
open.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 9:44 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
Short but substantive conversation with Smerconish today:

youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...
Wanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, & Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America
YouTube video by Michael Smerconish
youtu.be
January 17, 2026 at 3:45 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
smerconish.bsky.social
Wanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, and Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America
Watch my full segment on YouTube & Subscribe: https://youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM
January 17, 2026 at 3:02 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
Short but substantive conversation with @smerconish.bsky.social on prediction markets:

youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...
Wanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, & Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America
YouTube video by Michael Smerconish
youtu.be
January 17, 2026 at 3:17 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
Clip from a longer conversation with Smerconish a couple of days ago:

www.facebook.com/reel/1371138...
4.2K views · 37 reactions | In the days before the shock nighttime raid when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, one user on the “prediction market” Polymarket quietly set the whe...
In the days before the shock nighttime raid when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, one user on the “prediction market” Polymarket quietly set the wheels in motion to vastly...
www.facebook.com
January 15, 2026 at 10:13 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on (possible) insider trading on Polymarket

open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Venezuela Windfall
Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits.
open.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 9:24 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, asset price bubbles, and on online game:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Wordle and the Wisdom of Crowds
I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles.
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:18 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on Salman Rushdie: Encountering the Buddha
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Encountering the Buddha
I’ve mentioned in a couple of earlier posts that I spent ten formative years of my life—including all of my teenage years—in England.
open.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:13 AM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on the detection of wash trading:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Detection of Wash Trading
Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened on election day:
open.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
nbirdsall.bsky.social
Accessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social
www.aeaweb.org
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
nkgarg.bsky.social
Direct link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Network-Based Detection of Wash Trading
Wash trading refers to the practice of buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume. I
papers.ssrn.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
nkgarg.bsky.social
Have been waiting for this paper to come out ever since Hongyao told me about it -- more academics should be taking advantage of such open data to answer important questions
rajivsethi.bsky.social Rajiv Sethi @rajivsethi.bsky.social · Nov 7
Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link):

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 7, 2025 at 1:45 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link):

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 7, 2025 at 11:30 AM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
Just posted a paper on the detection of wash trading with an application to Polymarket (joint with Allen Sirolly, Hongyao Ma, Yash Kanoria):

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Network-Based Detection of Wash Trading
Wash trading refers to the practice of buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume. I
papers.ssrn.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:27 AM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on prediction markets and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Markets and the Mayor's Race
We’re just a few days away from discovering who will be the next mayor of New York City, but according to at least one major prediction market, it’s essentially a foregone conclusion:
open.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
interfluidity.com
"What appeals to me most abt American traditions is the creedal nature of national identity, the Declaration’s insistence on universal equality…the rights enumerated in our Constitution…I consider innovation…growth…sustained material prosperity…downstream of free expression." @rajivsethi.bsky.social
The Compact
According to media reports, the federal government has sent nine research universities a memorandum of understanding and promised significant benefits—including preferential access to grants and feder...
rajivsethi.substack.com
October 5, 2025 at 10:59 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on the compact open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
The Compact
According to media reports, the federal government has sent nine research universities a memorandum of understanding and promised significant benefits—including preferential access to grants and contr...
open.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
casbsstanford.bsky.social
CASBS's Creating a New Moral Political Economy program (2020-23) offers an open access repository allowing students & educators to expand their thinking about moral political economy issues & questions.

Scholars: add your syllabus & other digital resources to the repository.

👉 mpe.stanford.edu
February 26, 2025 at 11:05 PM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
New post on gun supply open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Gun Supply
A recent issue of Vital City is on the supply side of America’s gun problem.
open.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 9:50 AM
rajivsethi.bsky.social
Latest issue of @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social is on gun supply, lots of interesting contributions, here is mine (with Dan O'Flaherty) www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/whe...
Vital City | When Products Can Kill
The unfortunate limits of legal gun regulation
www.vitalcitynyc.org
September 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM