Rajiv Sethi
@rajivsethi.bsky.social
Economics | Barnard | Columbia | Santa Fe Institute | http://www.columbia.edu/~rs328/ | https://rajivsethi.substack.com/ | https://tinyurl.com/shadowsofdoubt
Not dunking on anyone here, just pointing out that one can't reason one's way to an answer to the accuracy question! Only data can answer.
November 7, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Not dunking on anyone here, just pointing out that one can't reason one's way to an answer to the accuracy question! Only data can answer.
The question of prediction market accuracy relative to other forecasting mechanisms such as statistical models can't be settled by logic, only by looking at historical performance across a range of events, some attempt to do so for elections here:
share.google/pEO6jR9PTwnP...
share.google/pEO6jR9PTwnP...
Political Prediction and the Wisdom of Crowds
share.google
November 7, 2025 at 10:48 PM
The question of prediction market accuracy relative to other forecasting mechanisms such as statistical models can't be settled by logic, only by looking at historical performance across a range of events, some attempt to do so for elections here:
share.google/pEO6jR9PTwnP...
share.google/pEO6jR9PTwnP...
Reposted by Rajiv Sethi
Direct link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Network-Based Detection of Wash Trading
Wash trading refers to the practice of buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume. I
papers.ssrn.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Direct link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....