Raimundo Aguayo
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raguayo.bsky.social
Raimundo Aguayo
@raguayo.bsky.social
130 followers 110 following 33 posts
Lecturer at @unicomplutense.bsky.social |
Psychological quantitative methods. Psychometrics. Meta-analysis.
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Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
psyarxivbot.bsky.social
How participants create illusory experiences to help experimenters: https://osf.io/n2ukj
December 16, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
unnombrealazar.bsky.social
Vamos camino de la nada a gran escala. Durante un tiempo pareció que la academia podíamos ser una especie de resistencia a ciertos modos de estar en el mundo. Ahora somos productores de aire soportado por más aire.
bsky.app/profile/sabr...
sabrinanorwood.bsky.social Sabrina Norwood @sabrinanorwood.bsky.social · 1d
Did you know that from tomorrow, Qualtrics is offering synthetic panels (AI-generated participants)?

Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
Text reads: About synthetic panels Recruiting the right participants for a study can be difficult. You may not get the exact demographics you need, and the shorter the deadline, the less sure you can be that everyone will answer on time. One possible solution can be to use synthetic panels. Synthetic panels are powered by a first party proprietary AI model developed here at Qualtrics. Our synthetic panel is trained on thousands of responses from a variety of demographic backgrounds in order to more accurately predict how certain populations would respond to a survey. Our synthetic panel is based on the United States General Population, and is only available in English. This panel comes with ready-made quotas and target breakouts in order to represent your chosen population and make it easy to launch your survey right away. Text reads: Question-writing best practices To get the most reliable and actionable results from synthetic audiences, consider these question-writing best practices: Ask forward-looking and attitudinal questions. Synthetic panels perform best with perceptions, preferences, and intent-based questions. For example, “How likely are you to try…?” Synthetic panels are less applicable for studies on past behaviors, detailed recall, brand recall, or awareness questions. For example, “When did you last visit…?” Text reads: Discussion The current study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of the TPB when applied to health behaviours which addressed the limitations of previous reviews by including only prospective tests of behaviour, applying RE meta-analytic procedures, correcting correlations for sampling and measurement error, and hierarchically analysing the effect of behaviour type and sample and methodological moderators. Some 237 tests were identified which examined relations amongst model components. Overall the analysis indicated that the TPB could explain 19.3% of the variance in behaviour and 44.3% of the variance in intention across studies. This level of prediction of behaviour is slightly lower than that of previous meta-analytic reviews which have found between 27% (Armitage & Conner, 2001; Hagger et al., 2002) and 36% (Trafimow et al., 2002) of the variance in behaviour to be explained by intention and PBC.
December 16, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
jamiecummins.bsky.social
Just published in Behavior Research Methods:

The individual-level precision of implicit measures

w/ @ianhussey.mmmdata.io

🧵👇

link.springer.com/article/10.3...
The individual-level precision of implicit measures - Behavior Research Methods
Implicit measures are used extensively in psychological science. One fundamental goal of these measures is to provide information diagnostic of an individual’s attitudes or beliefs. After 25 years of ...
link.springer.com
December 9, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
markrubin.bsky.social
"Replication rates are higher than experts predicted and p-hacking is much less common than we expected!"

replications.clearerthinking.org/three-surpri...
Three Surprises From Attempting To Replicate Recent Studies in Top Psychology Journals Amanda Metskas December 4, 2025 How has the replication rate of psychology studies changed in recent years? Are we still experiencing a “replication crisis,” where only 40-60% of results replicate when the study is conducted again?
December 5, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
mavadillo.bsky.social
Couldn't agree more...
December 8, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
briannosek.bsky.social
A short preprint describing our adoption of more consistent and precise use of terminology related to reproducibility, robustness, replicability, repeatability, and credibility.

osf.io/preprints/me...
December 3, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
metaarxivbot.bsky.social
A Brief Glossary of Terms about Repeatability: Replicability, Robustness, and Reproducibility: https://osf.io/mqfp4
December 2, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
thomvolker.bsky.social
Unless I miss the point of their paper entirely, Vos & Holbert (doi.org/10.1007/s112...) argue that the "hypothetical sampling" view of frequentism is not required, but can be viewed as chance outcomes with certain proportions. This seems to alleviate these CI-interpretation issues as well.
Frequentist statistical inference without repeated sampling - Synthese
Frequentist inference typically is described in terms of hypothetical repeated sampling but there are advantages to an interpretation that uses a single random sample. Contemporary examples are given ...
doi.org
November 19, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
oscarlecuona.bsky.social
Este sábado 22 estaré con otras compañera, en mi caso hablando de la revolución de la credibilidad y la crisis de replicacion
November 17, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
tkaiser.science
🚀 New paper (open access) out in Cognitive Therapy & Research: we (@herzog.bsky.social, @evalottabrakemeier.bsky.social, @hudsongolino.bsky.social and me) ask whether group‑level symptom‑change networks in CBT actually capture what happens inside each patient. #Psychology #CBT
Must We Always Go Idiographic? - Cognitive Therapy and Research
Purpose While psychological change processes are increasingly assumed to be “non-ergodic”, prompting a shift toward idiographic approaches, the assumption of ergodicity is often accepted a priori rath...
link.springer.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
markrubin.bsky.social
"p-Excuses"

E.g., p = .056 is “marginally significant” or “close to being significant”

🔹 Most p-excuses are used in psychology.

🔹 The least p-excuses are used in health.

Preprint: osf.io/preprints/me...

#MetaSci #AcademicSky 🧪
Researchers face incentives to write up their empirical findings in a way that maximizes publication success. We analyze the language of journal articles and its association with statistical significance to explore questionable research practices at the stage of writing up articles, using 140,606 articles from health, biology, psychology, economics, and multidisciplinary journals over 32 years. For most disciplines, a higher share of non-significant main findings is associated with more hedging and negative striking words, fewer positive striking words, and fewer superlatives. We neither find evidence that authors upsell ambiguous results using sensational language nor that ambiguous results are written up less readably. Contrarily, articles with a higher share of statistically significant main findings are written up more sensationally. We find that emphasis on (marginal) statistical significance increases with the share of non-significant main findings, reflecting a dichotomized interpretation of p-values based on arbitrary thresholds. Particularly, p-excuses give the impression of statistical significance when the finding is actually not significant, consistent with the notion of 'spin'. This study provides empirical insights that might help researchers to self-reflect on writing up empirical findings. More training and fewer incentives to sell findings using sensational language and spin can help to improve academic writing.
November 14, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
reproducibilitea.org
📚 Improving statistical reporting in psychology www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Improving statistical reporting in psychology - Communications Psychology
Practical guidelines for transparent statistical reporting in quantitative psychology are presented, covering key decisions from study planning through results reporting across frequentist, Bayesian, ...
www.nature.com
November 15, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
psyarxivbot.bsky.social
When do interaction/moderation effects stabilize in linear regression?: https://osf.io/35t84
November 12, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
psyarxivbot.bsky.social
Introducing openESM: A database of openly available experience sampling datasets: https://osf.io/qfdtb
October 23, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
unnombrealazar.bsky.social
Para profesorado, por si ayuda a que revisemos nuestras prácticas.
October 14, 2025 at 2:18 PM
raguayo.bsky.social
¿Tus hipótesis son falsables?compruebalo con este checklist:
Evaluate What Is Claimed to Be Confirmed: Initial Version of a Falsification Assessment Form (FAF) | Methodology doi.org/10.5964/meth...
Evaluate What Is Claimed to Be Confirmed: Initial Version of a Falsification Assessment Form (FAF)| Methodology
doi.org
September 30, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
markrubin.bsky.social
“Psychology needs epistemic, methodological, and epistemological pluralism to examine phenomena from different perspectives.”

New article by @maddipow.bsky.social

#MetaSci #OpenSci
natrevpsychol.nature.com Nature Reviews Psychology @natrevpsychol.nature.com · Aug 28
Editorial: Evolving perspectives on open science

go.nature.com/45Qa99n
August 28, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
metaarxivbot.bsky.social
Developments in the field of reliability and agreement studies: a methods review protocol: https://osf.io/um57k
August 28, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
markrubin.bsky.social
"Understanding different types of review articles: A primer for early career researchers."

By Ghosh & Choudhury (2025)

Open Access: dx.doi.org/10.4103/indi...

#AcademicSky #PhDSky #Methodology
August 26, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
markrubin.bsky.social
Perspectival Realism + Ecological Psychology = Ecological Perspectivism

"Science offers knowledge of reality in terms of affordances, which are relational to the instruments and abilities of scientific communities."

#PhilSci #PsycSci
filosofemas.bsky.social Eros Carvalho @filosofemas.bsky.social · Aug 26
We have been working on this for the last five years, and it's great that our paper will be published in Synthese. philsci-archive.pitt.edu/26226/ Ecological psychology is a good fit for perspectival realism.
Ecological Perspectivism: Understanding Perspectival Realism through Ecological Psychology - PhilSci-Archive
philsci-archive.pitt.edu
August 27, 2025 at 4:55 AM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
markrubin.bsky.social
Just published…

I argue that preregistration does not improve the transparent evaluation of the severity of hypothesis tests (a) in Popper’s approach or (b) in Mayo’s error statistical approach when preregistration is treated as “a plan, not a prison.”

Open Access: doi.org/10.1007/s112...
One justification for preregistering research hypotheses, methods, and analyses is that it improves the transparent evaluation of the severity of hypothesis tests. In this article, I consider two cases in which preregistration does not improve this evaluation. First, I argue that, although preregistration may facilitate the transparent evaluation of severity in Mayo’s error statistical philosophy of science, it does not facilitate this evaluation in Popper’s theory-centric approach. To illustrate, I show that associated concerns about Type I error rate inflation are only relevant in the error statistical approach and not in a theory-centric approach. Second, I argue that a test procedure that is preregistered but that also allows deviations in its implementation (i.e., “a plan, not a prison”) does not provide a more transparent evaluation of Mayoian severity than a non-preregistered procedure. In particular, I argue that sample-based validity-enhancing deviations cause an unknown inflation of the test procedure’s Type I error rate and, consequently, an unknown reduction in its capability to license inferences severely. I conclude that preregistration does not improve the transparent evaluation of severity (a) in Popper’s philosophy of science or (b) in Mayo’s approach when deviations are allowed.
August 22, 2025 at 6:43 AM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
irvingwashington22.bsky.social
The paper about splines in R that I wish I had known about when I was learning splines in R.

bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
A review of spline function procedures in R - BMC Medical Research Methodology
Background With progress on both the theoretical and the computational fronts the use of spline modelling has become an established tool in statistical regression analysis. An important issue in splin...
bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com
August 22, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
psyarxivbot.bsky.social
Item Construction Rules Revisited: Learnings from Measurement of Latent Variables with Gold-Standard Items: https://osf.io/r259d
August 5, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
metaarxivbot.bsky.social
A Preliminary Data Analysis Workflow for Meta-Analysis of Dependent Effect Sizes: https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/vfsqx_v1
July 25, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Reposted by Raimundo Aguayo
bsiepe.bsky.social
I'm excited that our preregistration template for simulation studies is now available on OSF!
See below for a brief interview with the Center for Open Science about the template and why we created it..
July 30, 2025 at 7:24 AM