Rafael Mentges
@rafaelmentges.bsky.social
Economist interested in macroeconomics, monetary policy, and Banking.
I have a second profile that is more focused on everything around space, so don't get confused ;)
I have a second profile that is more focused on everything around space, so don't get confused ;)
"restaurants and other businesses that cater to low-income Americans are experiencing reduced sales as their customers increasingly struggle to make ends meet, while businesses that cater to affluent consumers enjoy resilient spending bolstered by booming stock markets."
What fast food’s downturn says about the US economy
Restaurants have raised prices to offset rising labour and ingredient costs, leading low-income customers to visit less often
giftarticle.ft.com
February 10, 2026 at 7:28 AM
"restaurants and other businesses that cater to low-income Americans are experiencing reduced sales as their customers increasingly struggle to make ends meet, while businesses that cater to affluent consumers enjoy resilient spending bolstered by booming stock markets."
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
Great article; it seems like quite a long time since NFTs were getting far more attention than they deserved, although I suspect there will remain some value in cryptocurrency for the main objectively useful use case of illicit transactions, like (supposedly) cigarettes in gaol.
"This week has shown us that the supply of “greater fools” that #bitcoin relies on is drying up."
Great piece by @jemima.bsky.social with reference to La Haine ❤️
Great piece by @jemima.bsky.social with reference to La Haine ❤️
Bitcoin is still about $69,000 too high
The crypto crash is coming — and the landing won’t be pretty
giftarticle.ft.com
February 8, 2026 at 1:58 PM
Great article; it seems like quite a long time since NFTs were getting far more attention than they deserved, although I suspect there will remain some value in cryptocurrency for the main objectively useful use case of illicit transactions, like (supposedly) cigarettes in gaol.
"This week has shown us that the supply of “greater fools” that #bitcoin relies on is drying up."
Great piece by @jemima.bsky.social with reference to La Haine ❤️
Great piece by @jemima.bsky.social with reference to La Haine ❤️
Bitcoin is still about $69,000 too high
The crypto crash is coming — and the landing won’t be pretty
giftarticle.ft.com
February 8, 2026 at 7:35 AM
"This week has shown us that the supply of “greater fools” that #bitcoin relies on is drying up."
Great piece by @jemima.bsky.social with reference to La Haine ❤️
Great piece by @jemima.bsky.social with reference to La Haine ❤️
Excellent piece on Kevin Warsh. Must read!
(Not saying I agree with everything)
(Not saying I agree with everything)
Reading the runes on a Warsh Fed
The presumptive next chair might be better than others on the list, but he is a confusing, perhaps confused, figure
giftarticle.ft.com
February 4, 2026 at 10:26 AM
Excellent piece on Kevin Warsh. Must read!
(Not saying I agree with everything)
(Not saying I agree with everything)
If you remember Kevin Warsh as a monetary policy hawk, you might be puzzled that low-interest craving Trump might nominate him.
But if you look at his more recent comments supporting lower interest rates, you know he is just one of those spineless Republican hypocrites:
1/2
But if you look at his more recent comments supporting lower interest rates, you know he is just one of those spineless Republican hypocrites:
1/2
Donald Trump preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair
US president says he will announce nominee to replace Jay Powell on Friday morning
giftarticle.ft.com
January 30, 2026 at 8:10 AM
If you remember Kevin Warsh as a monetary policy hawk, you might be puzzled that low-interest craving Trump might nominate him.
But if you look at his more recent comments supporting lower interest rates, you know he is just one of those spineless Republican hypocrites:
1/2
But if you look at his more recent comments supporting lower interest rates, you know he is just one of those spineless Republican hypocrites:
1/2
BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has emerged as a leading contender in the race for Federal Reserve chair
#Fed #Powell
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
#Fed #Powell
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder surges ahead in race to chair Federal Reserve
Donald Trump has said he plans to name his nominee to run the US central bank ‘in the not too distant future’
giftarticle.ft.com
January 24, 2026 at 6:15 AM
BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has emerged as a leading contender in the race for Federal Reserve chair
#Fed #Powell
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
#Fed #Powell
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
Russia is invading Europe and the president of the United States is ranting about the danger that "windmills" pose to the Western World.
January 21, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Russia is invading Europe and the president of the United States is ranting about the danger that "windmills" pose to the Western World.
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
I was about to post a similar thing
The problem is not just Trump and his deranged speech, the problem is also that none of the checks and balances work
It's not a personal breakdown, it's an institutional breakdown
Electing a new president in 2028 will not be enough to restore trust within NATO
The problem is not just Trump and his deranged speech, the problem is also that none of the checks and balances work
It's not a personal breakdown, it's an institutional breakdown
Electing a new president in 2028 will not be enough to restore trust within NATO
Even after Trump is gone, the world will remember that he threatened to forcibly seize the territory of a peaceful democratic ally, and our institutions failed to immediately remove him. That makes US dangerously unreliable, not just one senile gangster.
His not being impeached by the end of the business day as a result of this threat is as much a problem as the threat itself. It’s not just Trump that the world has to worry about, it’s a GOP that supports him and Democrats who suck their thumbs and refuse to even discuss pushing to remove him
January 21, 2026 at 2:52 PM
I was about to post a similar thing
The problem is not just Trump and his deranged speech, the problem is also that none of the checks and balances work
It's not a personal breakdown, it's an institutional breakdown
Electing a new president in 2028 will not be enough to restore trust within NATO
The problem is not just Trump and his deranged speech, the problem is also that none of the checks and balances work
It's not a personal breakdown, it's an institutional breakdown
Electing a new president in 2028 will not be enough to restore trust within NATO
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
The Danish military gears up to defend Greenland
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
Denmark’s Army Chief Says He’s Ready to Defend Greenland
Danish forces are moving to the island to show NATO—and Trump—that they’re serious about security.
www.theatlantic.com
January 14, 2026 at 6:56 PM
The Danish military gears up to defend Greenland
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
If you think Republicans are somehow showing principles, think again. They just know inflation is going to hurt them in the next election.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Top Republicans denounce justice department’s criminal probe into Fed chair Jay Powell
Backlash builds as Trump administration’s prosecutors target head of US central bank
giftarticle.ft.com
January 13, 2026 at 7:24 AM
If you think Republicans are somehow showing principles, think again. They just know inflation is going to hurt them in the next election.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
Defence buildup and transition to EVs should be enough to revive the German manufacturing sector. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Defence jobs boom as Germany’s arms companies go on hiring spree
Data from selection of companies and start-ups suggests limited success in hiring from embattled auto sector
giftarticle.ft.com
January 12, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Defence buildup and transition to EVs should be enough to revive the German manufacturing sector. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Gold and silver up, dollar down.
"Analysts at ING said that markets were now in “wait-and-see mode” as they tried to assess the impact, adding that risks for the dollar were “significant”."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
"Analysts at ING said that markets were now in “wait-and-see mode” as they tried to assess the impact, adding that risks for the dollar were “significant”."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Gold hits record high on worries over Fed independence
Dollar weakens and Wall Street futures fall after US prosecutors launch criminal investigation into chair Jay Powell
giftarticle.ft.com
January 12, 2026 at 10:19 AM
Gold and silver up, dollar down.
"Analysts at ING said that markets were now in “wait-and-see mode” as they tried to assess the impact, adding that risks for the dollar were “significant”."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
"Analysts at ING said that markets were now in “wait-and-see mode” as they tried to assess the impact, adding that risks for the dollar were “significant”."
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
"The debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 183% by 2054, compared to 154% in the March baseline without OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). The cumulative effect of OBBBA is thus a 29 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio after three decades." www.nber.org/digest/20260...
January 12, 2026 at 10:09 AM
"The debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 183% by 2054, compared to 154% in the March baseline without OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). The cumulative effect of OBBBA is thus a 29 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio after three decades." www.nber.org/digest/20260...
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
Political leaders should heed the voice of realism @andriuskubilius.ec.europa.eu. Boosting defence spending is good, but not enough. Europe needs an institutional framework for defence and security.
1/4
Why we need “intellectual Big Bang” in defence?
Besides a “big bang” in defence money, which is coming, we need to start to look much more deeply into the problems of our Institutional Defence Readiness.
We need an intellectual “big bang” to make much more radical shift.
Why we need “intellectual Big Bang” in defence?
Besides a “big bang” in defence money, which is coming, we need to start to look much more deeply into the problems of our Institutional Defence Readiness.
We need an intellectual “big bang” to make much more radical shift.
January 11, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Political leaders should heed the voice of realism @andriuskubilius.ec.europa.eu. Boosting defence spending is good, but not enough. Europe needs an institutional framework for defence and security.
The Trump administration is still determined to end the Fed's independence.
"US prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Jay Powell over a $2.5bn renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters, sharply escalating the Trump administration’s confrontation with the central bank."
"US prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Jay Powell over a $2.5bn renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters, sharply escalating the Trump administration’s confrontation with the central bank."
US prosecutors launch criminal investigation into Fed’s Jay Powell
Central bank chair says grand jury subpoenas are retaliation for refusal to bow to Trump’s demand to cut interest rates
giftarticle.ft.com
January 12, 2026 at 2:04 AM
The Trump administration is still determined to end the Fed's independence.
"US prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Jay Powell over a $2.5bn renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters, sharply escalating the Trump administration’s confrontation with the central bank."
"US prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Jay Powell over a $2.5bn renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters, sharply escalating the Trump administration’s confrontation with the central bank."
Es ist deprimierend, aber das sind unsere Trade-Offs heutzutage: Leute sterben lassen oder Demokratie riskieren.
Ich glaube schon, dass ohne den Ausbruch von Corona der Rechtsextremismus in der Welt nicht so erfolgreich wäre, wie im Augenblick.
Das hat einfach viele Irre über den Rand gedrückt, die so viel Angst vor einem Piekser haben, dass sie lieber Nazis werden.
Das hat einfach viele Irre über den Rand gedrückt, die so viel Angst vor einem Piekser haben, dass sie lieber Nazis werden.
January 2, 2026 at 11:32 PM
Es ist deprimierend, aber das sind unsere Trade-Offs heutzutage: Leute sterben lassen oder Demokratie riskieren.
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
Cindy Lopes Bento, @maikelpellens.bsky.social and I have a new paper forthcoming in 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘺, which turned out to be an early Christmas gift. 📄🎄
It speaks to a policy question that is becoming increasingly important. doi.org/10.1016/j.re...
🧵👇
It speaks to a policy question that is becoming increasingly important. doi.org/10.1016/j.re...
🧵👇
Redirecting
doi.org
January 2, 2026 at 1:15 PM
Cindy Lopes Bento, @maikelpellens.bsky.social and I have a new paper forthcoming in 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘺, which turned out to be an early Christmas gift. 📄🎄
It speaks to a policy question that is becoming increasingly important. doi.org/10.1016/j.re...
🧵👇
It speaks to a policy question that is becoming increasingly important. doi.org/10.1016/j.re...
🧵👇
This looks really bad. It doesn't create trust in an independent central bank when they do not fully disclose all benefits.
It also seems a bit out of touch when someone receives €135.000 for "housing and other matters" when the basic income is already €466.000.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
It also seems a bit out of touch when someone receives €135.000 for "housing and other matters" when the basic income is already €466.000.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Christine Lagarde’s pay is 50% higher than disclosed by ECB
Europe’s top central banker earns almost four times more than Fed chair Jay Powell, FT analysis shows
giftarticle.ft.com
January 2, 2026 at 10:35 AM
This looks really bad. It doesn't create trust in an independent central bank when they do not fully disclose all benefits.
It also seems a bit out of touch when someone receives €135.000 for "housing and other matters" when the basic income is already €466.000.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
It also seems a bit out of touch when someone receives €135.000 for "housing and other matters" when the basic income is already €466.000.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
“This has been one of the worst years for dollar performance in the history of free-floating exchange rates,”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Dollar on track for steepest annual drop for almost a decade
Analysts say Federal Reserve rate cuts will push the US currency lower in 2026
giftarticle.ft.com
December 30, 2025 at 7:26 PM
“This has been one of the worst years for dollar performance in the history of free-floating exchange rates,”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
My two cents: Anyone who has worked with data knows that analytics involves a lot of repetitive manual tasks—essentially the intellectual, well-paid equivalent of wood chopping. In the short run, automating those functions will require organizational changes, but we'll get used to it.
December 28, 2025 at 8:44 AM
My two cents: Anyone who has worked with data knows that analytics involves a lot of repetitive manual tasks—essentially the intellectual, well-paid equivalent of wood chopping. In the short run, automating those functions will require organizational changes, but we'll get used to it.
The main obstacle to peace is the Russian army being in another country uninvited. Everything else is BS!
The European Union is “the main obstacle to peace” in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said today ahead of a fresh round of peace talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump.
EU is ‘main obstacle to peace’ in Ukraine, says Russia’s foreign minister
Sergey Lavrov’s comments come as Ukraine’s Zelenskyy heads to talks with Donald Trump in Florida.
www.politico.eu
December 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
The main obstacle to peace is the Russian army being in another country uninvited. Everything else is BS!
Reposted by Rafael Mentges
The price of silver surged more than 4% and crossed the $75-per-ounce mark for the first time as precious metal prices continue a record-breaking rally.
Silver Price Crosses $75 Mark For First Time Amid Record-Breaking Surge
The price of silver surged more than 4% and crossed the $75-per-ounce mark for the first time as precious metal prices continue a record-breaking rally.
www.forbes.com
December 26, 2025 at 2:25 PM
The price of silver surged more than 4% and crossed the $75-per-ounce mark for the first time as precious metal prices continue a record-breaking rally.
Interesting figure but two questions:
How do you measure that?
Why is Portugal the complete opposite of Spain?
How do you measure that?
Why is Portugal the complete opposite of Spain?
December 27, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Interesting figure but two questions:
How do you measure that?
Why is Portugal the complete opposite of Spain?
How do you measure that?
Why is Portugal the complete opposite of Spain?
Underrated fact: even if Russian GDP is growing due to the war economy, normal Russians are worse off due to inflation, sanctions and a redirection of labor and capital from goods and services towards military production lines.
Even if you don't hear much about it, discontent is growing.
Even if you don't hear much about it, discontent is growing.
Why, what happened? Spend all your money on murdering your neighbors, didn’t you, bastards?
December 26, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Underrated fact: even if Russian GDP is growing due to the war economy, normal Russians are worse off due to inflation, sanctions and a redirection of labor and capital from goods and services towards military production lines.
Even if you don't hear much about it, discontent is growing.
Even if you don't hear much about it, discontent is growing.