Q McCallum
@qethanm.bsky.social
NEW BOOK: Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI
https://twinwolvesai.com/
research: (ML+gen)AI, risk, complexity, finance history
newsletter: https://complex-machinery.com
(some posts in 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇷🇺)
https://twinwolvesai.com/
research: (ML+gen)AI, risk, complexity, finance history
newsletter: https://complex-machinery.com
(some posts in 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇷🇺)
Pinned
Q McCallum
@qethanm.bsky.social
· Nov 7
Twin Wolves AI
Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI
TwinWolvesAI.com
It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI."
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company.
twinwolvesai.com
#dataBS
Prime example of seeing your AI product map through a risk/reward lens.
"Feature [X] could bring us [Y] more revenue!"
"It could also (checks notes) cost us 10*[Y] in impl and bring us 100*[Y] in downside risk exposures. Not worth it."
"Feature [X] could bring us [Y] more revenue!"
"It could also (checks notes) cost us 10*[Y] in impl and bring us 100*[Y] in downside risk exposures. Not worth it."
Anthropic made a very conscious decision to not do any kind of image or video generation unlike OpenAI and XAI, which 1. cuts off a potentially really ugly legal liability tail, 2. is much cheaper to train and serve, especially without video, and 3. makes the product far more enterprise-friendly.
Lol half the revenue of OpenAI and 1/28th the infrastructure commitment - hard not to conclude OpenAI and everyone relying on their CapEx is kind of boned: www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/a...
January 21, 2026 at 9:53 PM
Prime example of seeing your AI product map through a risk/reward lens.
"Feature [X] could bring us [Y] more revenue!"
"It could also (checks notes) cost us 10*[Y] in impl and bring us 100*[Y] in downside risk exposures. Not worth it."
"Feature [X] could bring us [Y] more revenue!"
"It could also (checks notes) cost us 10*[Y] in impl and bring us 100*[Y] in downside risk exposures. Not worth it."
My top reads from the past week:
- edible AI (sort of)
- the business of haunted houses (not so scary)
- making planes lighter (indirectly)
- TV is dumb (on purpose)
- ads coming to ChatGPT (no surprise)
… and more
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/011-...
- edible AI (sort of)
- the business of haunted houses (not so scary)
- making planes lighter (indirectly)
- TV is dumb (on purpose)
- ads coming to ChatGPT (no surprise)
… and more
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/011-...
#011 - 2026/01/21
A selection of what I've read this past week.
inothernews.complex-machinery.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:06 PM
My top reads from the past week:
- edible AI (sort of)
- the business of haunted houses (not so scary)
- making planes lighter (indirectly)
- TV is dumb (on purpose)
- ads coming to ChatGPT (no surprise)
… and more
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/011-...
- edible AI (sort of)
- the business of haunted houses (not so scary)
- making planes lighter (indirectly)
- TV is dumb (on purpose)
- ads coming to ChatGPT (no surprise)
… and more
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/011-...
Reposted by Q McCallum
As I dig into the 2008 GFC / mortgage crisis again, it's hard to not draw parallels to today's overheated genAI space.
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
January 21, 2026 at 12:29 AM
As I dig into the 2008 GFC / mortgage crisis again, it's hard to not draw parallels to today's overheated genAI space.
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
As I dig into the 2008 GFC / mortgage crisis again, it's hard to not draw parallels to today's overheated genAI space.
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
January 21, 2026 at 12:29 AM
As I dig into the 2008 GFC / mortgage crisis again, it's hard to not draw parallels to today's overheated genAI space.
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
And I wonder: which shining star of a company will be the next Lehman? The next Bear? And who will play the role of Paulson's group, shorting it all to hell at the right time?
Matches what I've seen. The people most bullish on AI code gen tend to be one of:
1/ a particular subset of senior devs who have made the "army of interns" approach work.
2/ people who assume that app dev is 100% writing code. ("Product? Ops/infra? Testing? Planning? What's that?")
1/ a particular subset of senior devs who have made the "army of interns" approach work.
2/ people who assume that app dev is 100% writing code. ("Product? Ops/infra? Testing? Planning? What's that?")
I'm a software engineer so I know the answer. We've sped up the coding part of the process but not any of the other parts, and coding hasn't been the constraint to shipping software in a while.
January 20, 2026 at 5:37 PM
Matches what I've seen. The people most bullish on AI code gen tend to be one of:
1/ a particular subset of senior devs who have made the "army of interns" approach work.
2/ people who assume that app dev is 100% writing code. ("Product? Ops/infra? Testing? Planning? What's that?")
1/ a particular subset of senior devs who have made the "army of interns" approach work.
2/ people who assume that app dev is 100% writing code. ("Product? Ops/infra? Testing? Planning? What's that?")
Reposted by Q McCallum
I've jotted down common traps that companies face during their AI transformation:
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
Ten traps for your company's AI transformation
Sharp edges and pitfalls on your road to AI.
qethanm.cc
January 19, 2026 at 2:45 PM
I've jotted down common traps that companies face during their AI transformation:
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
I've jotted down common traps that companies face during their AI transformation:
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
Ten traps for your company's AI transformation
Sharp edges and pitfalls on your road to AI.
qethanm.cc
January 19, 2026 at 2:45 PM
I've jotted down common traps that companies face during their AI transformation:
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
qethanm.cc/2026/01/16/t...
(Folks on LinkedIn are getting this piece-by-piece. Since you follow me on a site that doesn't discourage external links, you get to read the whole set at once.)
#dataBS #aisky
Reposted by Q McCallum
January 18, 2026 at 8:15 PM
January 18, 2026 at 8:15 PM
I admit, I did not have "genAI-induced psychosis" on my risk bingo card.
But I will say: one way to uncover genAI's downside risks is to forcefully cram it into every possible crevice and see what breaks.
Which is exactly what's happening.
But I will say: one way to uncover genAI's downside risks is to forcefully cram it into every possible crevice and see what breaks.
Which is exactly what's happening.
NEW: In January 2024, a man purchased Meta's newly AI-infused smart glasses.
He went on to experience a devastating break with reality that played out across Meta platforms — with Meta AI as his companion, entertaining and affirming his worsening delusional beliefs.
futurism.com/artificial-i...
He went on to experience a devastating break with reality that played out across Meta platforms — with Meta AI as his companion, entertaining and affirming his worsening delusional beliefs.
futurism.com/artificial-i...
January 18, 2026 at 2:26 PM
I admit, I did not have "genAI-induced psychosis" on my risk bingo card.
But I will say: one way to uncover genAI's downside risks is to forcefully cram it into every possible crevice and see what breaks.
Which is exactly what's happening.
But I will say: one way to uncover genAI's downside risks is to forcefully cram it into every possible crevice and see what breaks.
Which is exactly what's happening.
Reviewing some old issues of Complex Machinery
and tempted to rename the newsletter to "I Fucking Told You So"
and tempted to rename the newsletter to "I Fucking Told You So"
January 17, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Reviewing some old issues of Complex Machinery
and tempted to rename the newsletter to "I Fucking Told You So"
and tempted to rename the newsletter to "I Fucking Told You So"
Reposted by Q McCallum
I get it -- genAI companies don't truly believe in these examples.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
January 17, 2026 at 1:32 AM
I get it -- genAI companies don't truly believe in these examples.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
Reposted by Q McCallum
NEW: The UK is playing “whack-a-mole” with big tech regulation.
After the Grok backlash, ministers rushed through an important ban on nudification apps, but it may not even apply to Grok, or stop wider AI harms.
Me + @catneilan.bsky.social for @observeruk.bsky.social
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
After the Grok backlash, ministers rushed through an important ban on nudification apps, but it may not even apply to Grok, or stop wider AI harms.
Me + @catneilan.bsky.social for @observeruk.bsky.social
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
UK laws in response to Grok won’t stop harms | The Observer
‘We are behind the curve,’ warns Harriet Harman, who fears the country is adopting a scattergun approach to big tech regulation
observer.co.uk
January 17, 2026 at 1:48 PM
NEW: The UK is playing “whack-a-mole” with big tech regulation.
After the Grok backlash, ministers rushed through an important ban on nudification apps, but it may not even apply to Grok, or stop wider AI harms.
Me + @catneilan.bsky.social for @observeruk.bsky.social
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
After the Grok backlash, ministers rushed through an important ban on nudification apps, but it may not even apply to Grok, or stop wider AI harms.
Me + @catneilan.bsky.social for @observeruk.bsky.social
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
I get it -- genAI companies don't truly believe in these examples.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
January 17, 2026 at 1:32 AM
I get it -- genAI companies don't truly believe in these examples.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
They are constantly playing a game of Cook Up Barely-Plausible Use Cases So We Have An Excuse To Keep Pushing GenAI.
Yes. Yes, and ...
... by this point, they're grasping. It looks desperate. Game over. Go home.
It's almost like we need strong, unambiguous laws that prohibit certain uses of data...
Other prediction: These ads will be relatively untargeted and innocuous at first. OpenAI will say we won't do gross highly targeted and intrusive ads like all the digital ad sellers.
Then they will.
Because gross ads always win.
Then they will.
Because gross ads always win.
January 17, 2026 at 1:03 AM
It's almost like we need strong, unambiguous laws that prohibit certain uses of data...
In the latest Complex Machinery:
As with any gold rush, the genAI space has attracted its share of newcomers. That's created some interesting downside risk exposures ... especially when inexperienced players wind up in key roles.
#dataBS #aisky
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/053-...
As with any gold rush, the genAI space has attracted its share of newcomers. That's created some interesting downside risk exposures ... especially when inexperienced players wind up in key roles.
#dataBS #aisky
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/053-...
#053 - Amateur hour
The genAI hype wave has become a multi-trillion-dollar open mic night.
newsletter.complex-machinery.com
January 16, 2026 at 9:22 PM
In the latest Complex Machinery:
As with any gold rush, the genAI space has attracted its share of newcomers. That's created some interesting downside risk exposures ... especially when inexperienced players wind up in key roles.
#dataBS #aisky
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/053-...
As with any gold rush, the genAI space has attracted its share of newcomers. That's created some interesting downside risk exposures ... especially when inexperienced players wind up in key roles.
#dataBS #aisky
newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/053-...
Reputation laundering is a form of data tampering: modifying source records to influence downstream decisions.
Such edits to Wikipedia are especially pernicious, given the volume of people and machines which rely on it.
(h/t @bondhack.ft.com )
www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2026...
Such edits to Wikipedia are especially pernicious, given the volume of people and machines which rely on it.
(h/t @bondhack.ft.com )
www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2026...
London PR firm rewrites Wikipedia for governments and billionaires
Founded by Keir Starmer’s comms chief, Portland helps rich clients ‘protect their reputation’ – with a shady, off-the-books service
www.thebureauinvestigates.com
January 15, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Reputation laundering is a form of data tampering: modifying source records to influence downstream decisions.
Such edits to Wikipedia are especially pernicious, given the volume of people and machines which rely on it.
(h/t @bondhack.ft.com )
www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2026...
Such edits to Wikipedia are especially pernicious, given the volume of people and machines which rely on it.
(h/t @bondhack.ft.com )
www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2026...
The security/convenience tradeoff strikes again:
Hundreds of millions of earbuds, headphones and speakers need a security update (yes, you need to update your earbuds) to prevent a wireless hacking technique that can hijack audio, eavesdrop via mics, and in some cases remotely track the accessory’s location. www.wired.com/story/google...
Hundreds of Millions of Audio Devices Need a Patch to Prevent Wireless Hacking and Tracking
Flaws in how 17 models of headphones and speakers use Google’s one-tap Fast Pair Bluetooth protocol have left devices open to eavesdroppers and stalkers.
www.wired.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:46 PM
The security/convenience tradeoff strikes again:
What I've been reading this week:
- the economic pains and gains of the climate crisis
- unintentionally bad data
- intentionally bad (poisoned) data
- the "warehouse model" applied to food
and more!
Read online or subscribe:
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/010-...
- the economic pains and gains of the climate crisis
- unintentionally bad data
- intentionally bad (poisoned) data
- the "warehouse model" applied to food
and more!
Read online or subscribe:
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/010-...
#010 - 2026/01/14
A selection of what I've read this past week.
inothernews.complex-machinery.com
January 14, 2026 at 1:24 PM
What I've been reading this week:
- the economic pains and gains of the climate crisis
- unintentionally bad data
- intentionally bad (poisoned) data
- the "warehouse model" applied to food
and more!
Read online or subscribe:
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/010-...
- the economic pains and gains of the climate crisis
- unintentionally bad data
- intentionally bad (poisoned) data
- the "warehouse model" applied to food
and more!
Read online or subscribe:
inothernews.complex-machinery.com/archive/010-...
Reposted by Q McCallum
Cheeseburgers are not natural.
My Graph is up on Reddit www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
My Graph is up on Reddit www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
January 12, 2026 at 11:22 PM
Cheeseburgers are not natural.
My Graph is up on Reddit www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
My Graph is up on Reddit www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
January 12, 2026 at 11:22 PM
OK but AI's impact on excitement and Corporate FOMO™️ has been through the roof.
It's almost like there's ... some kind of disconnect? I wonder ...
It's almost like there's ... some kind of disconnect? I wonder ...
The latest Duke CFO survey shows that the vast majority of CFOs are seeing no impact from AI on labor productivity, decision-making speed, customer satisfaction, or time spent on high-value-added tasks
Torsten at Apollo
Torsten at Apollo
January 12, 2026 at 11:06 PM
OK but AI's impact on excitement and Corporate FOMO™️ has been through the roof.
It's almost like there's ... some kind of disconnect? I wonder ...
It's almost like there's ... some kind of disconnect? I wonder ...
Reposted by Q McCallum
Tapping the sign again (and again, and again):
January 12, 2026 at 12:29 AM
Tapping the sign again (and again, and again):
Seems a good time to dust this one off again ...
The greatest lie of 2010s adtech was that "relevant ads" were a fair tradeoff for widespread, invasive data analysis.
The big lie of today's genAI is that we need everything summarized. Articles, emails, and chats are apparently too much for us to handle?
A 🧵:
The big lie of today's genAI is that we need everything summarized. Articles, emails, and chats are apparently too much for us to handle?
A 🧵:
January 12, 2026 at 12:37 AM
Seems a good time to dust this one off again ...