Jason Davidson
@profjwdavidson.bsky.social
Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council/ Prof at U of Mary Washington
Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security
Racing cyclist
Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security
Racing cyclist
Pinned
What explains the transatlantic rift? It’s all about threat perception.
NATO allies’ differing threat perceptions provide the backdrop for what could be a contentious summit in The Hague this month.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
Some like to divide NATO allies into "good" ones who spend a lot on defense and "bad" ones/free riders who don't.
I argue in this @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social essay that differences in threat perception explain spending differences.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
I argue in this @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social essay that differences in threat perception explain spending differences.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address.
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
January 3, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address.
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Some polling:
Invading Venezuela - 19% approve, 60% disapprove
OK to go w/o Congressional approval - 11% yes, 74% no
👇
Invading Venezuela - 19% approve, 60% disapprove
OK to go w/o Congressional approval - 11% yes, 74% no
👇
Invading Venezuela is a close second:
19% approve, 60% disapprove.
19% approve, 60% disapprove.
January 3, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Some polling:
Invading Venezuela - 19% approve, 60% disapprove
OK to go w/o Congressional approval - 11% yes, 74% no
👇
Invading Venezuela - 19% approve, 60% disapprove
OK to go w/o Congressional approval - 11% yes, 74% no
👇
Like Iraq after 9/11, Trump's ousting of Maduro is performative.
It's a high profile, symbolic way to claim he's taking action against drug cartels without actually going after the cartels that are responsible for most US fatalities.
It's a high profile, symbolic way to claim he's taking action against drug cartels without actually going after the cartels that are responsible for most US fatalities.
January 3, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Like Iraq after 9/11, Trump's ousting of Maduro is performative.
It's a high profile, symbolic way to claim he's taking action against drug cartels without actually going after the cartels that are responsible for most US fatalities.
It's a high profile, symbolic way to claim he's taking action against drug cartels without actually going after the cartels that are responsible for most US fatalities.
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Next stop on the War Tour:
Trump to Fox: “Claudia Sheinbaum is a good woman, but the cartels are running Mexico.
“She’s not running Mexico — the cartels are running Mexico.
“Something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.”
Trump to Fox: “Claudia Sheinbaum is a good woman, but the cartels are running Mexico.
“She’s not running Mexico — the cartels are running Mexico.
“Something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.”
January 3, 2026 at 2:39 PM
Next stop on the War Tour:
Trump to Fox: “Claudia Sheinbaum is a good woman, but the cartels are running Mexico.
“She’s not running Mexico — the cartels are running Mexico.
“Something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.”
Trump to Fox: “Claudia Sheinbaum is a good woman, but the cartels are running Mexico.
“She’s not running Mexico — the cartels are running Mexico.
“Something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.”
Alternatively, if the forcible regime change scholars are correct, Venezuela will be such a mess that it will require sustained US focus and serve as an example of what not to do moving forward. Or, is that too optimistic?
The “if you give a mouse a cookie” principle means that if he faces no consequences worldwide for this, he’ll go for Greenland next.
January 3, 2026 at 2:41 PM
Alternatively, if the forcible regime change scholars are correct, Venezuela will be such a mess that it will require sustained US focus and serve as an example of what not to do moving forward. Or, is that too optimistic?
I had heard this argument from someone in MAGA world a few months back, so not surprise that Fox asked and Trump answered that way.
I also heard, however, that the US can't really go after Mexico because of commercial interdependence, so that logic--like all the others--doesn't make much sense.
I also heard, however, that the US can't really go after Mexico because of commercial interdependence, so that logic--like all the others--doesn't make much sense.
Trump says "something is gonna have to be done" about Mexico and President Claudia Sheinbaum in response to a question about whether the Venezuelan strike was a "message" to her government.
January 3, 2026 at 2:34 PM
I had heard this argument from someone in MAGA world a few months back, so not surprise that Fox asked and Trump answered that way.
I also heard, however, that the US can't really go after Mexico because of commercial interdependence, so that logic--like all the others--doesn't make much sense.
I also heard, however, that the US can't really go after Mexico because of commercial interdependence, so that logic--like all the others--doesn't make much sense.
European leaders thus far doubling down on passive voice. International law "must be respected." Gee, by whom?
www.politico.eu/article/eu-k...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-k...
EU urges respect for international law after US capture of Maduro
“We call for restraint,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said after U.S. operation to fly Maduro out of Venezuela.
www.politico.eu
January 3, 2026 at 2:31 PM
European leaders thus far doubling down on passive voice. International law "must be respected." Gee, by whom?
www.politico.eu/article/eu-k...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-k...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
I feel like I haven’t even been properly lied to about the purposes of this war
January 3, 2026 at 9:13 AM
I feel like I haven’t even been properly lied to about the purposes of this war
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Trump says "something is gonna have to be done" about Mexico and President Claudia Sheinbaum in response to a question about whether the Venezuelan strike was a "message" to her government.
January 3, 2026 at 2:16 PM
Trump says "something is gonna have to be done" about Mexico and President Claudia Sheinbaum in response to a question about whether the Venezuelan strike was a "message" to her government.
Trump can definitely kiss the Noble peace prize goodbye.
January 3, 2026 at 2:19 PM
Trump can definitely kiss the Noble peace prize goodbye.
Potentially catastrophic crisis averted! 2026 trending in the right direction.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
US retreats from Donald Trump’s Italian pasta tariffs
Rome says proposed levies of up to 92% set to be reduced after US commerce department review
giftarticle.ft.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:40 PM
Potentially catastrophic crisis averted! 2026 trending in the right direction.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
A sympathetic take on Meloni as bridge between Europe and the US.
I suspect she will find it increasingly difficult to bridge what is an every widening gap.
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
I suspect she will find it increasingly difficult to bridge what is an every widening gap.
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
How Italy Reasserted Its Global Role
Italy has positioned itself as a Transatlantic bridge between Europe and the United States.
nationalinterest.org
December 26, 2025 at 7:18 PM
A sympathetic take on Meloni as bridge between Europe and the US.
I suspect she will find it increasingly difficult to bridge what is an every widening gap.
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
I suspect she will find it increasingly difficult to bridge what is an every widening gap.
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Battleships are just big targets in a war with another great power. If we have money to throw around we should be building more attack submarines, which are dramatically more survivable in all the scenarios that matter. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/u...
Trump Announces New ‘Trump Class’ of Warships
www.nytimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Battleships are just big targets in a war with another great power. If we have money to throw around we should be building more attack submarines, which are dramatically more survivable in all the scenarios that matter. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/u...
Germans and Canadians used to be among the most loyal US allies. Donald Trump's policies have irrevocably damaged that loyalty.
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
Poll: Major allies see US as unreliable and destabilizing
Pluralities in Germany and France — and a majority of Canadians — say the US is a negative force globally, new POLITICO-Public First polling finds.
www.politico.com
December 23, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Germans and Canadians used to be among the most loyal US allies. Donald Trump's policies have irrevocably damaged that loyalty.
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
The EU never gets praise even when it acts. There is so much constant EU negging that commentators struggle to praise when it delivers. The EU did what it needed to do. Take the win.
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
December 19, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The EU never gets praise even when it acts. There is so much constant EU negging that commentators struggle to praise when it delivers. The EU did what it needed to do. Take the win.
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.
First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/
Congratulations to @edrusi.bsky.social and @ddolzikova.bsky.social on an excellent, timely report on what Europe's security architecture should look like moving forward, given the threat from Russia and the challenge of US unreliability.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture
This paper highlights the urgent need for Europe to reshape its security framework to address emerging threats and ensure long-term stability and strategic advantage against the most significant chall...
www.rusi.org
December 19, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Congratulations to @edrusi.bsky.social and @ddolzikova.bsky.social on an excellent, timely report on what Europe's security architecture should look like moving forward, given the threat from Russia and the challenge of US unreliability.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
It is very much in Europe's interest to provide military aid to Ukraine, but an increasing number of governments don't see it that way.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Summit shows Europe still doesn’t want to pay to save Ukraine
Some northern countries have been sending cash to Kyiv for years, but many Europeans don’t see why they should.
www.politico.eu
December 19, 2025 at 12:02 PM
It is very much in Europe's interest to provide military aid to Ukraine, but an increasing number of governments don't see it that way.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
My take on the EU's through-the-night summit to help Ukraine. The main thing is €90bn will find its way to Kyiv—though not funded by Russia's frozen assets.
It was a messy deal, from which recriminations will ensue. But Europe got there (mostly) in the end.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
It was a messy deal, from which recriminations will ensue. But Europe got there (mostly) in the end.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Europe finds €90bn for Ukraine—but not from Russia
An EU “reparations loan” using frozen Russian money collapses
www.economist.com
December 19, 2025 at 11:19 AM
My take on the EU's through-the-night summit to help Ukraine. The main thing is €90bn will find its way to Kyiv—though not funded by Russia's frozen assets.
It was a messy deal, from which recriminations will ensue. But Europe got there (mostly) in the end.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
It was a messy deal, from which recriminations will ensue. But Europe got there (mostly) in the end.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
🇺🇦President Zelenskyy presser at #EUCO summit now after speaking with 🇪🇺
Says he agrees with 🇵🇱PM Tusk that if Europe doesn't pay now with money it will pay later with blood
"I don't want to intimidate anybody, but it speaks for itself"
Says he had good talk with 🇧🇪PM De Wever
Says he agrees with 🇵🇱PM Tusk that if Europe doesn't pay now with money it will pay later with blood
"I don't want to intimidate anybody, but it speaks for itself"
Says he had good talk with 🇧🇪PM De Wever
December 18, 2025 at 12:48 PM
🇺🇦President Zelenskyy presser at #EUCO summit now after speaking with 🇪🇺
Says he agrees with 🇵🇱PM Tusk that if Europe doesn't pay now with money it will pay later with blood
"I don't want to intimidate anybody, but it speaks for itself"
Says he had good talk with 🇧🇪PM De Wever
Says he agrees with 🇵🇱PM Tusk that if Europe doesn't pay now with money it will pay later with blood
"I don't want to intimidate anybody, but it speaks for itself"
Says he had good talk with 🇧🇪PM De Wever
Trump admin isn't for peace, they are for avoiding wars that put large numbers of American troops in harm's way.
AFRICOM dropped multiple new press releases for Somalia strikes. Some were new plural “airstrikes” references where the actual number of declared strikes isn’t yet clear.
Surpassing the peak of the Pakistan drone campaign more than a decade ago seems a live possibility.
Surpassing the peak of the Pakistan drone campaign more than a decade ago seems a live possibility.
December 18, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Trump admin isn't for peace, they are for avoiding wars that put large numbers of American troops in harm's way.
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Russian defense minister Belousov says that 5.1% of GDP (from the Russian MOD's budget) is spent directly on the war against Ukraine, while other expenditure has been cut to 2.2% of GDP. The total budget of the MOD is 7.3% in 2025.
Source: kremlin.ru/events/presi...
Source: kremlin.ru/events/presi...
December 17, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Russian defense minister Belousov says that 5.1% of GDP (from the Russian MOD's budget) is spent directly on the war against Ukraine, while other expenditure has been cut to 2.2% of GDP. The total budget of the MOD is 7.3% in 2025.
Source: kremlin.ru/events/presi...
Source: kremlin.ru/events/presi...
The NSS didn't label China as a threat to the US but it did say that deterring a conflict over Taiwan is a priority.
www.ft.com/content/feda...
www.ft.com/content/feda...
US approves $11bn arms sale to Taiwan
Largest weapons package of its kind threatens to undo thaw following Trump’s trade truce with Beijing
www.ft.com
December 18, 2025 at 12:12 PM
The NSS didn't label China as a threat to the US but it did say that deterring a conflict over Taiwan is a priority.
www.ft.com/content/feda...
www.ft.com/content/feda...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
I did this interview at Yonge & St Clair, the reporter hoping he'd catch a gig worker bombing down the sidewalk. Instead a pickup truck was parked in the bike lane behind us, and for the entire conversation rider after rider was forced into traffic.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
December 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
I did this interview at Yonge & St Clair, the reporter hoping he'd catch a gig worker bombing down the sidewalk. Instead a pickup truck was parked in the bike lane behind us, and for the entire conversation rider after rider was forced into traffic.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
US-EU economic relationship should be reason #1 that the US cares about European security.
The US-EU economic relationship one of the most important in the history of the world... and yet US declared a holy war vs. it. www.ft.com/content/b17e...
December 17, 2025 at 1:34 PM
US-EU economic relationship should be reason #1 that the US cares about European security.
Meloni matters and Italy matters: will she disrupt things or go with the EU majority?
www.ft.com/content/df9a...
www.ft.com/content/df9a...
Giorgia Meloni’s European moment comes with a price
Italy’s enigmatic leader holds a casting vote this week on two crucial issues for the EU
www.ft.com
December 17, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Meloni matters and Italy matters: will she disrupt things or go with the EU majority?
www.ft.com/content/df9a...
www.ft.com/content/df9a...