Potterlytics
@potterlytics.bsky.social
A journey into the statistical anguish and disappointment that is Stoke City FC.
Try my Championship Data app at http://championshipdata.streamlit.app/
Run by @gweaver.bsky.social
Try my Championship Data app at http://championshipdata.streamlit.app/
Run by @gweaver.bsky.social
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Potterlytics
@potterlytics.bsky.social
· Dec 19
Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City
Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…
potterlytics.blog
"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
Reposted by Potterlytics
PSR has underlined how badly run most of them are.
PSR has put the shackles on PL clubs.
January 8, 2025 at 2:29 PM
PSR has underlined how badly run most of them are.
Reposted by Potterlytics
This post is about 'possession adjusting' defensive stats, but really it's about
- exorcising past demons
- the extent to which making player statistics comparable to each other is a science vs a craft
- extended metaphors
get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com/p/possession...
- exorcising past demons
- the extent to which making player statistics comparable to each other is a science vs a craft
- extended metaphors
get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com/p/possession...
Possession is not nine-tenths: analysis into possession adjusting
Defensive statistics in football are difficult to parse. Is adjusting for a team's possession share the answer? And can data for players ever fully be comparable?
get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com
January 1, 2025 at 10:33 AM
This post is about 'possession adjusting' defensive stats, but really it's about
- exorcising past demons
- the extent to which making player statistics comparable to each other is a science vs a craft
- extended metaphors
get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com/p/possession...
- exorcising past demons
- the extent to which making player statistics comparable to each other is a science vs a craft
- extended metaphors
get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com/p/possession...
I'd say, don't look too much into where Coventry are this season as a measure of Robins as a manager.
I'm not saying it's perfect or even that it could work at Stoke, but simulating all Championship shots this season 100,000 times, Coventry are not a bottom half side.
I'm not saying it's perfect or even that it could work at Stoke, but simulating all Championship shots this season 100,000 times, Coventry are not a bottom half side.
December 31, 2024 at 2:13 PM
I'd say, don't look too much into where Coventry are this season as a measure of Robins as a manager.
I'm not saying it's perfect or even that it could work at Stoke, but simulating all Championship shots this season 100,000 times, Coventry are not a bottom half side.
I'm not saying it's perfect or even that it could work at Stoke, but simulating all Championship shots this season 100,000 times, Coventry are not a bottom half side.
On performances, you really can’t argue with that as a sacking.
December 27, 2024 at 8:35 PM
On performances, you really can’t argue with that as a sacking.
“The entirety of Stoke City’s plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
‘What are ‘good’ clubs doing? Brighton are doing data scouting, let’s get one of them in, but only for a few months because we’ll have a different structure next summer.’”
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
‘What are ‘good’ clubs doing? Brighton are doing data scouting, let’s get one of them in, but only for a few months because we’ll have a different structure next summer.’”
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City
Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…
potterlytics.blog
December 27, 2024 at 8:34 PM
“The entirety of Stoke City’s plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
‘What are ‘good’ clubs doing? Brighton are doing data scouting, let’s get one of them in, but only for a few months because we’ll have a different structure next summer.’”
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
‘What are ‘good’ clubs doing? Brighton are doing data scouting, let’s get one of them in, but only for a few months because we’ll have a different structure next summer.’”
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
From the piece I wrote on Schumacher's sacking:
"For my pessimistic side it feels inevitable that this ends as every other revolution has, first a sacked Head Coach & a new style of play, then a sacked Sporting Director and promises of a ‘new approach’ & ‘lessons learned’."
1/2
"For my pessimistic side it feels inevitable that this ends as every other revolution has, first a sacked Head Coach & a new style of play, then a sacked Sporting Director and promises of a ‘new approach’ & ‘lessons learned’."
1/2
December 27, 2024 at 8:33 PM
From the piece I wrote on Schumacher's sacking:
"For my pessimistic side it feels inevitable that this ends as every other revolution has, first a sacked Head Coach & a new style of play, then a sacked Sporting Director and promises of a ‘new approach’ & ‘lessons learned’."
1/2
"For my pessimistic side it feels inevitable that this ends as every other revolution has, first a sacked Head Coach & a new style of play, then a sacked Sporting Director and promises of a ‘new approach’ & ‘lessons learned’."
1/2
Just to update:
Since relegation, Stoke have had:
4 Managers
2 Head Coaches (soon 3)
12 Assistant Managers (soon to be 13)
1 'Technical Board'
1 Sporting Director
3 Technical Directors
1 Director of Football
1 Head of Football Operations
2 Chief Scouts
2 Heads of Recruitment
Since relegation, Stoke have had:
4 Managers
2 Head Coaches (soon 3)
12 Assistant Managers (soon to be 13)
1 'Technical Board'
1 Sporting Director
3 Technical Directors
1 Director of Football
1 Head of Football Operations
2 Chief Scouts
2 Heads of Recruitment
December 27, 2024 at 8:33 PM
Just to update:
Since relegation, Stoke have had:
4 Managers
2 Head Coaches (soon 3)
12 Assistant Managers (soon to be 13)
1 'Technical Board'
1 Sporting Director
3 Technical Directors
1 Director of Football
1 Head of Football Operations
2 Chief Scouts
2 Heads of Recruitment
Since relegation, Stoke have had:
4 Managers
2 Head Coaches (soon 3)
12 Assistant Managers (soon to be 13)
1 'Technical Board'
1 Sporting Director
3 Technical Directors
1 Director of Football
1 Head of Football Operations
2 Chief Scouts
2 Heads of Recruitment
Domination from Leeds. Stoke's inability to cover passing lanes out of possession exposed by a quality side.
December 26, 2024 at 10:19 PM
Domination from Leeds. Stoke's inability to cover passing lanes out of possession exposed by a quality side.
Reposted by Potterlytics
"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City
Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…
potterlytics.blog
December 19, 2024 at 3:37 PM
"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City
Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…
potterlytics.blog
December 19, 2024 at 3:37 PM
"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."
potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...
Reposted by Potterlytics
Choupo-Moting is the latest in a surprising run of Stoke City's 2017-18 squad coming to MLS:
- Xherdan Shaqiri
- Ryan Shawcross
- Geoff Cameron
- Tom Edwards
- Bojan Krkić
- Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
Stoke finished 19th that year. More awestruck by this trend than the mid-2010s Barcelona pipeline.
- Xherdan Shaqiri
- Ryan Shawcross
- Geoff Cameron
- Tom Edwards
- Bojan Krkić
- Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
Stoke finished 19th that year. More awestruck by this trend than the mid-2010s Barcelona pipeline.
NEW: The New York Red Bulls have signed Eric Choupo-Moting to a designated player deal.
A quick look at how the MLS Cup runners-up's new striker has performed lately. RBNY fans may want to pair with a stiff drink: www.nytimes.com/athletic/600...
A quick look at how the MLS Cup runners-up's new striker has performed lately. RBNY fans may want to pair with a stiff drink: www.nytimes.com/athletic/600...
New York Red Bulls signs former Bayern Munich forward Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
The New York Red Bulls has completed the signing of Cameroon forward Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting.
The 35-year-old joins as a free agent, having been without a club since the expiration of his Bayern Muni...
www.nytimes.com
December 18, 2024 at 8:19 PM
Choupo-Moting is the latest in a surprising run of Stoke City's 2017-18 squad coming to MLS:
- Xherdan Shaqiri
- Ryan Shawcross
- Geoff Cameron
- Tom Edwards
- Bojan Krkić
- Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
Stoke finished 19th that year. More awestruck by this trend than the mid-2010s Barcelona pipeline.
- Xherdan Shaqiri
- Ryan Shawcross
- Geoff Cameron
- Tom Edwards
- Bojan Krkić
- Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
Stoke finished 19th that year. More awestruck by this trend than the mid-2010s Barcelona pipeline.
As far as I can find, no Championship goalkeeper since they started recording Post-shot xG - a measure of how difficult a shot is to save - has come close to how good Viktor Johansson has been for Stoke this season.
An average shot-stopper would have conceded *11* more goals this season than he has
An average shot-stopper would have conceded *11* more goals this season than he has
December 16, 2024 at 11:07 AM
As far as I can find, no Championship goalkeeper since they started recording Post-shot xG - a measure of how difficult a shot is to save - has come close to how good Viktor Johansson has been for Stoke this season.
An average shot-stopper would have conceded *11* more goals this season than he has
An average shot-stopper would have conceded *11* more goals this season than he has
An upcoming piece this week. It won't be nice, but just as a quick preview:
I simulated every shot in the Championship 100,000 times:
In *99,700* of those simulations, Stoke conceded more goals than in real life.
A mixture of luck & Johansson, you can't rely on those forever.
I simulated every shot in the Championship 100,000 times:
In *99,700* of those simulations, Stoke conceded more goals than in real life.
A mixture of luck & Johansson, you can't rely on those forever.
December 15, 2024 at 12:53 PM
An upcoming piece this week. It won't be nice, but just as a quick preview:
I simulated every shot in the Championship 100,000 times:
In *99,700* of those simulations, Stoke conceded more goals than in real life.
A mixture of luck & Johansson, you can't rely on those forever.
I simulated every shot in the Championship 100,000 times:
In *99,700* of those simulations, Stoke conceded more goals than in real life.
A mixture of luck & Johansson, you can't rely on those forever.
Well, If you're wondering why Stoke fans are so concerned, and wondering why Narcís Pèlach had to come out and say he was changing some things in the defensive structure, erm...
This is why. That spike in xG against is gigantic, on already appalling underlying numbers.
This is why. That spike in xG against is gigantic, on already appalling underlying numbers.
December 11, 2024 at 2:54 PM
Well, If you're wondering why Stoke fans are so concerned, and wondering why Narcís Pèlach had to come out and say he was changing some things in the defensive structure, erm...
This is why. That spike in xG against is gigantic, on already appalling underlying numbers.
This is why. That spike in xG against is gigantic, on already appalling underlying numbers.
Absolutely great to see Arsenal playing with a rest defence made up entirely of 6’+ centre halves, a couple of quick wingers and scoring through blocking in set pieces.
Pulis laughing.gif
Pulis laughing.gif
December 4, 2024 at 9:48 PM
Absolutely great to see Arsenal playing with a rest defence made up entirely of 6’+ centre halves, a couple of quick wingers and scoring through blocking in set pieces.
Pulis laughing.gif
Pulis laughing.gif
Spotted that Tom Cannon has been nominated for Player of the Month.
His shots & passes for November below.
I'm not really sure I get this nomination from my end.
3 open play big chances, just the one open play goal. Not awful, but is it award-worthy?
Can't look past Borja Sainz for this, surely?
His shots & passes for November below.
I'm not really sure I get this nomination from my end.
3 open play big chances, just the one open play goal. Not awful, but is it award-worthy?
Can't look past Borja Sainz for this, surely?
December 4, 2024 at 1:25 PM
Spotted that Tom Cannon has been nominated for Player of the Month.
His shots & passes for November below.
I'm not really sure I get this nomination from my end.
3 open play big chances, just the one open play goal. Not awful, but is it award-worthy?
Can't look past Borja Sainz for this, surely?
His shots & passes for November below.
I'm not really sure I get this nomination from my end.
3 open play big chances, just the one open play goal. Not awful, but is it award-worthy?
Can't look past Borja Sainz for this, surely?
Reposted by Potterlytics
Delighted to announce two new features on my web app!
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
December 2, 2024 at 12:33 PM
Delighted to announce two new features on my web app!
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
Reposted by Potterlytics
Update to championshipdata.streamlit.app! Check out the new chalkboard maps for passes, and the heat maps too!
Any comments and help appreciated, now to work on streamlining it all and getting that processing speed up.
Any comments and help appreciated, now to work on streamlining it all and getting that processing speed up.
December 2, 2024 at 12:37 PM
Update to championshipdata.streamlit.app! Check out the new chalkboard maps for passes, and the heat maps too!
Any comments and help appreciated, now to work on streamlining it all and getting that processing speed up.
Any comments and help appreciated, now to work on streamlining it all and getting that processing speed up.
Delighted to announce two new features on my web app!
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
December 2, 2024 at 12:33 PM
Delighted to announce two new features on my web app!
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!
Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones
A switch to a back 3 today.
Extra centre back probably indicated more focus on defending the box, and allows a bit more freedom for Bocat/Tchamadeu with Stevens still recovering from Tuesday's game.
Big test for Pèlach's defensive plans, can they do it against a top side?
Extra centre back probably indicated more focus on defending the box, and allows a bit more freedom for Bocat/Tchamadeu with Stevens still recovering from Tuesday's game.
Big test for Pèlach's defensive plans, can they do it against a top side?
November 30, 2024 at 2:02 PM
A switch to a back 3 today.
Extra centre back probably indicated more focus on defending the box, and allows a bit more freedom for Bocat/Tchamadeu with Stevens still recovering from Tuesday's game.
Big test for Pèlach's defensive plans, can they do it against a top side?
Extra centre back probably indicated more focus on defending the box, and allows a bit more freedom for Bocat/Tchamadeu with Stevens still recovering from Tuesday's game.
Big test for Pèlach's defensive plans, can they do it against a top side?
A couple of really useful bits of info here on Stoke's lack of intensity and over-willingness to drop into a low block. 4th lowest PPDA (allow the opponent to pass the ball in their own 2/3rds more than all but 3 teams before challenging), 3rd lowest field tilt, lots of defending in their own 3rd
But this doesn't mean they are a passive low block side
Luton have had the lowest PPDA(Passes per defensive action) in the league so far this season.
This means they don't allow their opponent time on the ball and are aggressive in their press.
Graphic via @fevsfootball.bsky.social
Luton have had the lowest PPDA(Passes per defensive action) in the league so far this season.
This means they don't allow their opponent time on the ball and are aggressive in their press.
Graphic via @fevsfootball.bsky.social
November 26, 2024 at 12:55 PM
A couple of really useful bits of info here on Stoke's lack of intensity and over-willingness to drop into a low block. 4th lowest PPDA (allow the opponent to pass the ball in their own 2/3rds more than all but 3 teams before challenging), 3rd lowest field tilt, lots of defending in their own 3rd
Reposted by Potterlytics
Stoke are in a bit of an interesting spell at the minute, and there are some big questions to answer.
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
November 23, 2024 at 10:59 AM
Stoke are in a bit of an interesting spell at the minute, and there are some big questions to answer.
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
This! This! This!
My biggest issue with everything Stoke have done the past decade in a nutshell. The transition from the manager setting the vision to the DoF is an improvement, but it’s still a fundamental misunderstanding of what a DoF is for.
My biggest issue with everything Stoke have done the past decade in a nutshell. The transition from the manager setting the vision to the DoF is an improvement, but it’s still a fundamental misunderstanding of what a DoF is for.
Director of Football should not be setting the vision of a club.
They should be implementing a vision set at ownership level and held to account on delivering that.
How many DoF are in a job for more than 3 years?
They should be implementing a vision set at ownership level and held to account on delivering that.
How many DoF are in a job for more than 3 years?
November 23, 2024 at 12:10 PM
This! This! This!
My biggest issue with everything Stoke have done the past decade in a nutshell. The transition from the manager setting the vision to the DoF is an improvement, but it’s still a fundamental misunderstanding of what a DoF is for.
My biggest issue with everything Stoke have done the past decade in a nutshell. The transition from the manager setting the vision to the DoF is an improvement, but it’s still a fundamental misunderstanding of what a DoF is for.
Stoke are in a bit of an interesting spell at the minute, and there are some big questions to answer.
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
November 23, 2024 at 10:59 AM
Stoke are in a bit of an interesting spell at the minute, and there are some big questions to answer.
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
Whilst Stoke have only lost once in their last 8 league games, the rolling xG average plot shows their underlying numbers look pretty poor since Pèlach took over, even given the v small sample size
Perfect use of my Championship data app from a top notch stats account.
Slightly surreal, but very lovely 🫡🤩
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Slightly surreal, but very lovely 🫡🤩
championshipdata.streamlit.app
November 18, 2024 at 7:21 PM
Perfect use of my Championship data app from a top notch stats account.
Slightly surreal, but very lovely 🫡🤩
championshipdata.streamlit.app
Slightly surreal, but very lovely 🫡🤩
championshipdata.streamlit.app