Paul Heer
@pauljcheer.bsky.social
Former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia. Diplomatic historian.
"You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." The Trump Administration is engaged in a comprehensive assault on the truth in an effort to influence what you think you "know." What does that tell you about Trump's intentions regarding freedom? Think about that.
November 5, 2025 at 1:23 AM
"You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." The Trump Administration is engaged in a comprehensive assault on the truth in an effort to influence what you think you "know." What does that tell you about Trump's intentions regarding freedom? Think about that.
Here's a thought: China's approach to Russia's war in Ukraine is comparable to Washington's approach to Israel's war in Gaza: rationalizing and excusing the behavior of a highly problematic strategic partner. Discuss.
November 3, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Here's a thought: China's approach to Russia's war in Ukraine is comparable to Washington's approach to Israel's war in Gaza: rationalizing and excusing the behavior of a highly problematic strategic partner. Discuss.
Reposted by Paul Heer
The most immediate and important thing Congress can do is to call Adm Holsey, Lt Gen McGee and other cashiered officers to testify about their experience since Trump took office. Unless, that is, the GOP majority can’t handle the truth about what Trump is doing to the armed forces. wapo.st/4nEItvh
Opinion | Trump’s politicizing of the U.S. military is accelerating
Why are so many generals getting fired? Congress should summon them to find out.
wapo.st
November 3, 2025 at 2:11 PM
The most immediate and important thing Congress can do is to call Adm Holsey, Lt Gen McGee and other cashiered officers to testify about their experience since Trump took office. Unless, that is, the GOP majority can’t handle the truth about what Trump is doing to the armed forces. wapo.st/4nEItvh
"[I]f Trump can accept China as a peer power rather than constantly seeking new sources of leverage and can impose his vision of great power peace on his fractious administration, he could finally swing the world off a trajectory toward conflict."
Biden’s attempt to restrict China’s power failed, leaving the US weaker and the world a more dangerous place. But much of the foreign policy world still yearns for an irreversible escalatory spiral.
For RS, I ask whether Trump can break with it.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-biden-...
For RS, I ask whether Trump can break with it.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-biden-...
Can Trump finally break with Biden's failed China policy?
Seeking to contain Beijing has backfired, the president's meeting with Xi this week will show whether he can pivot
responsiblestatecraft.org
October 29, 2025 at 7:00 PM
"[I]f Trump can accept China as a peer power rather than constantly seeking new sources of leverage and can impose his vision of great power peace on his fractious administration, he could finally swing the world off a trajectory toward conflict."
What exactly are the Republicans getting from Trump in reward for their loyalty and acquiescence? What substantive and sustainable gains? (Do they really believe he is making America great?)
October 23, 2025 at 11:04 AM
What exactly are the Republicans getting from Trump in reward for their loyalty and acquiescence? What substantive and sustainable gains? (Do they really believe he is making America great?)
Is it a coincidence that the amount of money Trump is demanding from the taxpayer-funded Justice Department is about the same as the estimated cost of the new White House ballroom that he said would not be paid for by taxpayers?
October 21, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Is it a coincidence that the amount of money Trump is demanding from the taxpayer-funded Justice Department is about the same as the estimated cost of the new White House ballroom that he said would not be paid for by taxpayers?
Reposted by Paul Heer
I’m very excited for this discussion with @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S H Wong.
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
What Does China Want?
Join as we discuss China's true goals and motivations.
quincyinst.org
September 23, 2025 at 9:24 PM
I’m very excited for this discussion with @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S H Wong.
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
Reposted by Paul Heer
Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?
"I had friends say to me, look, we can oppose political violence without whitewashing this guy. I spent some time thinking about that over the weekend...and my reaction honestly is that it is too little to just say we oppose political violence."
September 17, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?
This cogent analysis from @zackcooper.bsky.social is an alarm bell for those who have failed to recognize--or refused to acknowledge--for the last 15 years that history has been moving on from the role that the United States (thought it) had in East Asia.
After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
September 11, 2025 at 12:38 PM
This cogent analysis from @zackcooper.bsky.social is an alarm bell for those who have failed to recognize--or refused to acknowledge--for the last 15 years that history has been moving on from the role that the United States (thought it) had in East Asia.
Wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans realized that Harris would have created fewer problems for them, and would have been easier for them to deal with?
September 6, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans realized that Harris would have created fewer problems for them, and would have been easier for them to deal with?
"By misunderstanding what China wants, the United States risks creating problems where none exist and isolating itself from East Asia in ways that are deleterious to U.S. long-term national interests." From @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S. H. Wong.
"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
What Does China Want?
Abstract. The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own im...
direct.mit.edu
August 20, 2025 at 10:43 PM
"By misunderstanding what China wants, the United States risks creating problems where none exist and isolating itself from East Asia in ways that are deleterious to U.S. long-term national interests." From @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S. H. Wong.
"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
What Does China Want?
Abstract. The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own im...
direct.mit.edu
August 20, 2025 at 10:05 PM
"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
"Alaska was not just another drop in our overflowing bucket of mortifications. It was proof that for the next 41 months, no interlocutor can believe a word the U.S. president says."
George Will: The problem is not that (Trump) is endlessly cynical, which would be an improvement. Rather, he seems promiscuously sincere, believing everything equally, no matter how discordant his beliefs today are with yesterday’s. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Now it is the Old World’s turn to rescue the United States
As Trump met with European leaders on Ukraine, Churchill’s words from days long ago came to mind.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 19, 2025 at 2:36 PM
"Alaska was not just another drop in our overflowing bucket of mortifications. It was proof that for the next 41 months, no interlocutor can believe a word the U.S. president says."
"Xi’s iron grip on the military not only endures, it is also indicative of his obsession with breaking the PLA’s insularity and endemic corruption and ensuring that, should he need to bet the regime on the military’s prowess, it will not fail."
Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs:
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
Brookings Foreign Policy on X: ""Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169" / X
"Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169
x.com
August 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
"Xi’s iron grip on the military not only endures, it is also indicative of his obsession with breaking the PLA’s insularity and endemic corruption and ensuring that, should he need to bet the regime on the military’s prowess, it will not fail."
"China’s Achilles’ heel has long been the fear it engenders with its aggressive behavior and lack of respect for other nations. Now, America is acting a lot like China and paying the price in global opinion."
While conciliating Beijing, Trump has been alienating U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region with his capricious tariff threats. The latest to suffer is India, a key U.S. partner in confronting China. Trump announced Wednesday that he was hitting India with 25 percent tariffs. wapo.st/3UeAFE9
Opinion | China is winning the trade war Trump started
On many fronts, Trump is inadvertently aiding China’s anti-American dictatorship.
wapo.st
August 4, 2025 at 12:35 PM
"China’s Achilles’ heel has long been the fear it engenders with its aggressive behavior and lack of respect for other nations. Now, America is acting a lot like China and paying the price in global opinion."
"The real politicization is the calculated distortion of intelligence by administration officials, notably Mr. Trump’s directors of national intelligence and the CIA, positions that should be apolitical."
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/o...
Opinion | Brennan and Clapper: Let’s Set the Record Straight on Russia and 2016
www.nytimes.com
July 30, 2025 at 9:25 PM
"The real politicization is the calculated distortion of intelligence by administration officials, notably Mr. Trump’s directors of national intelligence and the CIA, positions that should be apolitical."
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/o...
An important but largely overlooked—and still highly relevant—passage from the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy: “We cannot succeed in our competition with the major powers who offer a different vision for the world if we do not have a plan . . ." (1/3)
July 29, 2025 at 3:30 AM
An important but largely overlooked—and still highly relevant—passage from the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy: “We cannot succeed in our competition with the major powers who offer a different vision for the world if we do not have a plan . . ." (1/3)
What’s happening here? The US Government is now being driven by two things: the impulsive whims of an egotistical leader who recognizes no limits on his power; and a new “deep state” that is using him as the vehicle for its retrograde and revengeful agenda. (1/4)
July 10, 2025 at 4:45 PM
What’s happening here? The US Government is now being driven by two things: the impulsive whims of an egotistical leader who recognizes no limits on his power; and a new “deep state” that is using him as the vehicle for its retrograde and revengeful agenda. (1/4)
"While publicly claiming that its actions are meant to depoliticize U.S. intelligence agencies, the Trump administration has in fact politicized them further . . . "
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Trump Is Breaking American Intelligence
“Speak plainly!” Russian President Vladimir Putin snapped at his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, at a televised security council meeting on the eve of his shambolic full-scale invasion o...
www.foreignaffairs.com
July 2, 2025 at 2:39 PM
"While publicly claiming that its actions are meant to depoliticize U.S. intelligence agencies, the Trump administration has in fact politicized them further . . . "
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Republicans keep saying that Trump is "doing what he was elected to do." But during the campaign, he denied any connection to Project 2025. Now that is the agenda his administration is implementing. So he was elected to do what he said he had no intention of doing?
July 2, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Republicans keep saying that Trump is "doing what he was elected to do." But during the campaign, he denied any connection to Project 2025. Now that is the agenda his administration is implementing. So he was elected to do what he said he had no intention of doing?
Republicans believe that Trump is saving America from the damage that Harris would have done to the country. Let that thought sink in.
June 30, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Republicans believe that Trump is saving America from the damage that Harris would have done to the country. Let that thought sink in.
This is an excellent summary of Beijing's strategic perspective. But it will be largely dismissed in Washington as disingenuous and dishonest CCP propaganda.
thediplomat.com/2025/05/why-...
thediplomat.com/2025/05/why-...
Why China Is Not Interested in Great Power Carve-ups
Understanding Beijing’s strategic rejection of a “Yalta 2.0” arrangement.
thediplomat.com
June 4, 2025 at 12:12 PM
This is an excellent summary of Beijing's strategic perspective. But it will be largely dismissed in Washington as disingenuous and dishonest CCP propaganda.
thediplomat.com/2025/05/why-...
thediplomat.com/2025/05/why-...
More analysis that diverges from the COVID lab leak theory, which--contrary to the assertions of many of its proponents--remains unproven.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/s...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/s...
Genetic Study Retraces the Origins of Coronaviruses in Bats
www.nytimes.com
May 8, 2025 at 12:25 AM
More analysis that diverges from the COVID lab leak theory, which--contrary to the assertions of many of its proponents--remains unproven.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/s...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/s...
Republicans keep denying this because their belief system now requires them to. Rationalizing, excusing, or minimizing everything Trump does is easier than admitting that they made a mistake and have been exploited by Trump.
Larry Diamond: I’d say at this point we are a liberal democracy in decline and at least on a trajectory to becoming an illiberal democracy.
wapo.st/3RPktIo
wapo.st/3RPktIo
Opinion | ‘At this point, we are a liberal democracy in decline’
A conversation with scholar Larry Diamond about the state of U.S. democracy.
wapo.st
May 5, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Republicans keep denying this because their belief system now requires them to. Rationalizing, excusing, or minimizing everything Trump does is easier than admitting that they made a mistake and have been exploited by Trump.