Paul Heer
@pauljcheer.bsky.social
Former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia. Diplomatic historian.
Artificial intelligence may be a form of intelligence, but it will always be artificial, and thus imperfect. Human intelligence is also imperfect, but as a human I will always have more confidence and faith in it.
January 22, 2026 at 3:38 PM
Artificial intelligence may be a form of intelligence, but it will always be artificial, and thus imperfect. Human intelligence is also imperfect, but as a human I will always have more confidence and faith in it.
Has a consensus emerged that when Trump told the New York Times last week that his power was limited only by his "own morality," that he actually meant to say "mortality"?
January 13, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Has a consensus emerged that when Trump told the New York Times last week that his power was limited only by his "own morality," that he actually meant to say "mortality"?
Best Trump lines from the New York Times interview: "Everything I’ve read has been proven." "I did do that? When did I do that?" "I always respect the results of elections, but the elections in our country are rigged." "I just hate dishonest people." "I love democracy. I’m a big fan."
January 12, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Best Trump lines from the New York Times interview: "Everything I’ve read has been proven." "I did do that? When did I do that?" "I always respect the results of elections, but the elections in our country are rigged." "I just hate dishonest people." "I love democracy. I’m a big fan."
(1/3) It’s appropriate to criticize China for accusing the US of violating international law in Venezuela but not accusing Russia of violating it in Ukraine. But Beijing obviously has diplomatic reasons for condemning Washington and for not condemning Moscow. . . .
January 4, 2026 at 2:29 PM
(1/3) It’s appropriate to criticize China for accusing the US of violating international law in Venezuela but not accusing Russia of violating it in Ukraine. But Beijing obviously has diplomatic reasons for condemning Washington and for not condemning Moscow. . . .
"The Trump administration’s attack on Venezuela gives Beijing another opening to portray China as a more responsible international actor than the United States."
Read commentary by @global-affairs.bsky.social experts at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Lord Jim O'Neill, @dandrezner.bsky.social, Paul Heer, and more. On Venezuela, Trump, and what to expect.
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
What Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Means for the Region and the World
The US military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a large-scale strike. Experts assess what the unprecedented US intervention means for Venezuela, US foreign policy, and regional and...
globalaffairs.org
January 3, 2026 at 9:40 PM
"The Trump administration’s attack on Venezuela gives Beijing another opening to portray China as a more responsible international actor than the United States."
Something was needed to distract attention from the fifth anniversary of January 6.
January 3, 2026 at 2:33 PM
Something was needed to distract attention from the fifth anniversary of January 6.
In the current dispute between Japan and China over Taiwan, Washington and Tokyo are relying on a highly selective reading of history. They are also obscuring the erosion over time of their positions on “one China.” My take:
nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
Why Taiwan’s Status Can’t Stay “Undetermined”
The United States and Japan’s vague, ahistorical version of the “one China” policy is inflaming tensions with Beijing.
nationalinterest.org
December 17, 2025 at 12:29 PM
In the current dispute between Japan and China over Taiwan, Washington and Tokyo are relying on a highly selective reading of history. They are also obscuring the erosion over time of their positions on “one China.” My take:
nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
A very useful primer on the history and details of the current Japan-China dispute over Taiwan:
responsiblestatecraft.org/japan-china-...
responsiblestatecraft.org/japan-china-...
Takaichi 101: How to torpedo relations with China in a month
The brand new Japanese prime minister set off a firestorm by implying war with China if Beijing attacked Taiwan
responsiblestatecraft.org
November 26, 2025 at 6:02 PM
A very useful primer on the history and details of the current Japan-China dispute over Taiwan:
responsiblestatecraft.org/japan-china-...
responsiblestatecraft.org/japan-china-...
“Many commentators have readily characterized all this as a typically unreasonable Chinese overreaction to a relatively benign—even if ill-advised—Japanese statement. But the shadow of much history looms over this episode.”
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
How to Understand the Crisis in Japan-China Relations
Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi has infuriated China with her recent remarks, with no clear means of resolution.
nationalinterest.org
November 21, 2025 at 12:07 PM
“Many commentators have readily characterized all this as a typically unreasonable Chinese overreaction to a relatively benign—even if ill-advised—Japanese statement. But the shadow of much history looms over this episode.”
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
Contrary to the prevailing view, "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is not an affliction of his critics. It's actually what mobilizes his supporters.
November 20, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Contrary to the prevailing view, "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is not an affliction of his critics. It's actually what mobilizes his supporters.
(1/2) This spot-on analysis from @rushdoshi.bsky.social presents Washington with a choice: either recognize the constraints of interdependence and pursue some form of cooperative coexistence with China . . .
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
(1/2) This spot-on analysis from @rushdoshi.bsky.social presents Washington with a choice: either recognize the constraints of interdependence and pursue some form of cooperative coexistence with China . . .
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
"You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." The Trump Administration is engaged in a comprehensive assault on the truth in an effort to influence what you think you "know." What does that tell you about Trump's intentions regarding freedom? Think about that.
November 5, 2025 at 1:23 AM
"You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." The Trump Administration is engaged in a comprehensive assault on the truth in an effort to influence what you think you "know." What does that tell you about Trump's intentions regarding freedom? Think about that.
Here's a thought: China's approach to Russia's war in Ukraine is comparable to Washington's approach to Israel's war in Gaza: rationalizing and excusing the behavior of a highly problematic strategic partner. Discuss.
November 3, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Here's a thought: China's approach to Russia's war in Ukraine is comparable to Washington's approach to Israel's war in Gaza: rationalizing and excusing the behavior of a highly problematic strategic partner. Discuss.
Reposted by Paul Heer
The most immediate and important thing Congress can do is to call Adm Holsey, Lt Gen McGee and other cashiered officers to testify about their experience since Trump took office. Unless, that is, the GOP majority can’t handle the truth about what Trump is doing to the armed forces. wapo.st/4nEItvh
Opinion | Trump’s politicizing of the U.S. military is accelerating
Why are so many generals getting fired? Congress should summon them to find out.
wapo.st
November 3, 2025 at 2:11 PM
The most immediate and important thing Congress can do is to call Adm Holsey, Lt Gen McGee and other cashiered officers to testify about their experience since Trump took office. Unless, that is, the GOP majority can’t handle the truth about what Trump is doing to the armed forces. wapo.st/4nEItvh
"[I]f Trump can accept China as a peer power rather than constantly seeking new sources of leverage and can impose his vision of great power peace on his fractious administration, he could finally swing the world off a trajectory toward conflict."
Biden’s attempt to restrict China’s power failed, leaving the US weaker and the world a more dangerous place. But much of the foreign policy world still yearns for an irreversible escalatory spiral.
For RS, I ask whether Trump can break with it.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-biden-...
For RS, I ask whether Trump can break with it.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-biden-...
Can Trump finally break with Biden's failed China policy?
Seeking to contain Beijing has backfired, the president's meeting with Xi this week will show whether he can pivot
responsiblestatecraft.org
October 29, 2025 at 7:00 PM
"[I]f Trump can accept China as a peer power rather than constantly seeking new sources of leverage and can impose his vision of great power peace on his fractious administration, he could finally swing the world off a trajectory toward conflict."
What exactly are the Republicans getting from Trump in reward for their loyalty and acquiescence? What substantive and sustainable gains? (Do they really believe he is making America great?)
October 23, 2025 at 11:04 AM
What exactly are the Republicans getting from Trump in reward for their loyalty and acquiescence? What substantive and sustainable gains? (Do they really believe he is making America great?)
Is it a coincidence that the amount of money Trump is demanding from the taxpayer-funded Justice Department is about the same as the estimated cost of the new White House ballroom that he said would not be paid for by taxpayers?
October 21, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Is it a coincidence that the amount of money Trump is demanding from the taxpayer-funded Justice Department is about the same as the estimated cost of the new White House ballroom that he said would not be paid for by taxpayers?
Reposted by Paul Heer
I’m very excited for this discussion with @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S H Wong.
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
What Does China Want?
Join as we discuss China's true goals and motivations.
quincyinst.org
September 23, 2025 at 9:24 PM
I’m very excited for this discussion with @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S H Wong.
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.
Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...
Reposted by Paul Heer
Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?
"I had friends say to me, look, we can oppose political violence without whitewashing this guy. I spent some time thinking about that over the weekend...and my reaction honestly is that it is too little to just say we oppose political violence."
September 17, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?
This cogent analysis from @zackcooper.bsky.social is an alarm bell for those who have failed to recognize--or refused to acknowledge--for the last 15 years that history has been moving on from the role that the United States (thought it) had in East Asia.
After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
September 11, 2025 at 12:38 PM
This cogent analysis from @zackcooper.bsky.social is an alarm bell for those who have failed to recognize--or refused to acknowledge--for the last 15 years that history has been moving on from the role that the United States (thought it) had in East Asia.
Wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans realized that Harris would have created fewer problems for them, and would have been easier for them to deal with?
September 6, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans realized that Harris would have created fewer problems for them, and would have been easier for them to deal with?
"By misunderstanding what China wants, the United States risks creating problems where none exist and isolating itself from East Asia in ways that are deleterious to U.S. long-term national interests." From @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S. H. Wong.
"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
What Does China Want?
Abstract. The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own im...
direct.mit.edu
August 20, 2025 at 10:43 PM
"By misunderstanding what China wants, the United States risks creating problems where none exist and isolating itself from East Asia in ways that are deleterious to U.S. long-term national interests." From @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S. H. Wong.
"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
What Does China Want?
Abstract. The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own im...
direct.mit.edu
August 20, 2025 at 10:05 PM
"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
"Alaska was not just another drop in our overflowing bucket of mortifications. It was proof that for the next 41 months, no interlocutor can believe a word the U.S. president says."
George Will: The problem is not that (Trump) is endlessly cynical, which would be an improvement. Rather, he seems promiscuously sincere, believing everything equally, no matter how discordant his beliefs today are with yesterday’s. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Now it is the Old World’s turn to rescue the United States
As Trump met with European leaders on Ukraine, Churchill’s words from days long ago came to mind.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 19, 2025 at 2:36 PM
"Alaska was not just another drop in our overflowing bucket of mortifications. It was proof that for the next 41 months, no interlocutor can believe a word the U.S. president says."
"Xi’s iron grip on the military not only endures, it is also indicative of his obsession with breaking the PLA’s insularity and endemic corruption and ensuring that, should he need to bet the regime on the military’s prowess, it will not fail."
Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs:
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
Brookings Foreign Policy on X: ""Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169" / X
"Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169
x.com
August 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
"Xi’s iron grip on the military not only endures, it is also indicative of his obsession with breaking the PLA’s insularity and endemic corruption and ensuring that, should he need to bet the regime on the military’s prowess, it will not fail."