Olivia O'Sullivan
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oliviaosullivan.bsky.social
Olivia O'Sullivan
@oliviaosullivan.bsky.social
Director, UK in the World programme, Chatham House. Formerly HMG's Open Innovation Team, Cabinet Office, & DFID.
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
⚡️US military aid to Ukraine dropped 99% in 2025, report finds.

European countries stepped in to fill the gap, increasing military aid to Ukraine by 67% and non-military support by 59% in 2025, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
US military aid to Ukraine dropped 99% in 2025, report finds
European countries stepped in to fill the gap, increasing military aid to Ukraine by 67% and non-military support by 59% in 2025, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
kyivindependent.com
February 11, 2026 at 8:03 PM
It was great to chat to @philtinline.bsky.social for the writing of this excellent report, which gets to grips with why it is so hard for the state to actually do stuff, and features a cameo from my old team, the Open Innovation Team. Many insights in here apply to foreign policy too:
February 7, 2026 at 10:42 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
There is such huge opportunity cost to each Trump tantrum. So many people with critical jobs have lost another week when they could have been doing something useful.
January 21, 2026 at 9:25 PM
Trump's Greenland threats undermine the idea US tariffs are about aligning allies against China or onshoring industry. They're a tool to get things Trump wants. This is just one marker of a new era of economic coercion. In our @chathamhouse.org comment, Jerome Puri and I look at the UK's options:
Trump’s Greenland tariffs show the UK must prepare for a new era of economic coercion
The willingness of major powers – both the US and China – to engage in increasingly blatant economic coercion will prove a difficult challenge for the UK.
www.chathamhouse.org
January 21, 2026 at 10:37 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
January 18, 2026 at 3:04 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Yes, against Russia & China. Sure.

'UK Defence Secretary John Healey says a British military officer is supporting a Danish "reconnaissance group" in Greenland ... to bolster security in the region against Russian "aggression" & "any Chinese activity". .' uk.news.yahoo.com/healey-uk-as...
Healey: UK assisting Danish military in Greenland
At a press conference alongside his Swedish counterpart, UK Defence Secretary John Healey says a British military officer is supporting a Danish "reconaissance group" in Greenland intended to bolster ...
uk.news.yahoo.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:10 PM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Donald Trump hopes to get Venezuela's oil flowing again, but this will not come cheap. Tripling production, from 1 million to 3 million barrels of oil a day, would cost an estimated $183 billion.
President Trump’s ambition to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector will be challenging, especially if prices continue to fall
Robust long-term oil demand is needed to justify significant investment, but is called into question by the growing popularity of electric vehicles.
www.chathamhouse.org
January 7, 2026 at 10:31 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
"This sends a very clear signal to Russia and to China that regional spheres of influence are not something to be avoided but infact embraced."

Laurel Rapp on US President Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions in Greenland and Venezuela, via BBC News.
January 7, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Joint Statement of major EU/NATO countries on Greenland, together with Denmark:
January 6, 2026 at 11:53 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Trump, Maduro and the Panama Precedent"

Trying to make sense of today's events...

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
Trump, Maduro and the Panama Precedent
Once again the US has undertaken a military operation that was effectively executed in support of an uncertain political objective.
open.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 6:21 PM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Our experts give their initial reaction to President Trump’s strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

Read in full ⤵️
US to ‘run’ Venezuela after Maduro captured, says Trump: Early analysis from Chatham House experts
Experts give their initial reaction to President Trump’s strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. What are the implications for the US, the region and the world?
www.chathamhouse.org
January 4, 2026 at 9:16 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
This by @ecfr.eu’s Majda Ruge is a good guide to Trump’s calculus on Venezuela. Rival factions (primacists, prioritisers, restrainers) have been counseling different courses of action, but “the answers depend on what the president decides will bring him the biggest ‘win’.”

ecfr.eu/article/maga...
MAGA goes south: Trump’s plan for Venezuela – European Council on Foreign Relations
Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump a
ecfr.eu
January 3, 2026 at 8:52 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
NEW: Trump administration launches direct military strikes on Venezuela. Explosions reported in Caracas. Aircraft reported flying over the city.
January 3, 2026 at 7:49 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
New post just out:

"Advice for advisers - 14 lessons for making government work"

A final guest post of the year from former PM adviser Henry de Zoete on how to make things happen in power.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Advice for advisers - 14 lessons for making government work
We have one final guest post this year from Henry de Zoete who wrote for us a few months ago on “How to Make Government Work” with a case study of the AI Security Institute.
open.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
We strongly condemn the U.S. decision to impose travel restrictions on five European individuals, including former Commissioner Thierry Breton.

Link to full statement: link.europa.eu/NtMX4K
December 24, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
SCOOP: Starmer and Carney are working on a new strategic partnership that could see Canada buy the U.K.'s 6th-gen fighter jet, forge critical minerals deals and resolve thorny trade and tariff issues, High Commissioner Goodale tells POLITICO as he steps down.

www.politico.eu/article/cana...
Canada eyes an ‘ambitious’ new partnership with Britain amid Trump turmoil
The two countries’ relationship is “incredibly valuable in the kind of dangerous and turbulent world in which we live,” Canada’s High Commissioner to London, Ralph Goodale, tells POLITICO as he ste…
www.politico.eu
December 19, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Christian Turner to be new UK ambassador to US ft.trib.al/9UNDHMq
Christian Turner to be new UK ambassador to US
Diplomat due to be Britain’s UN envoy is handed key post in Washington after contest to replace Peter Mandelson
ft.trib.al
December 18, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
“Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State Louise Sandher-Jones said that “for the first time since early 2021, Armed Forces intake is now greater than outflow”.

In the 12 months to 1 Oct 25, “there was an increase of 13% in people joining the Armed Forces compared to the previous 12-month period”.”
British forces recruitment rises as intake overtakes outflow
UK Armed Forces recruitment has overtaken personnel outflow for the first time in almost four years, with recruitment rising 13%.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
December 15, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Good piece in the @wsj.com on the US's National Security Strategy - which includes some of my thoughts on what this means for Europe.

Boils down to: No more "Trump whisperers", European leaders can no longer deny that the transatlantic relationship as we knew it is dead.
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
U.S. Flips History by Casting Europe—Not Russia—as Villain in New Security Policy
An annual strategy document, which has described threats from China to Russia, directs some of its harshest language at NATO allies.
www.wsj.com
December 6, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed
gives cause for great optimism."
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
As I wrote yesterday, my understanding was that the demand of the EU towards Canada for SAFE participation was much lower than towards the UK.

If this report is correct, though, the €10 million agreement is much lower, and rather closer to the UK's proposal for its contribution.
December 2, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
​For years, a rare-earth mining project in Africa promised to help free the West from its dependence on China. Some weeks back, it fell into Chinese hands.
The Failed Crusade to Keep a Rare-Earths Mine Out of China’s Hands
The failure of one Western company to build a China-free rare-earths supply shows how Beijing has come to dominate the supply.
on.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:15 AM
Reposted by Olivia O'Sullivan
Dozens of senior officials from across Asia, Africa and the Pacific will touch down in Brussels on Thursday, as the EU tries to convince them it is a more reliable partner than the United States and China.

My preview of this week's EU Indo Pacific forum
Europe seeks common ground with Indo-Pacific nations bruised by US-China rivalry
Senior officials and diplomats from Asia, Africa and the Pacific will attend a forum in Brussels. Beijing and Washington aren’t invited.
www.scmp.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:05 AM