Just to drive home what a great format the new Champions League is — with 1 game to go 30 out of 36 teams still have something to play for.
January 22, 2026 at 8:56 AM
Just to drive home what a great format the new Champions League is — with 1 game to go 30 out of 36 teams still have something to play for.
Reposted by Nils Mackay
A great opportunity to showcase your skills to the wider sports analytics industry! We've had multiple recent presenters go on to join the Opta data science group. ⚽📐🐍
It’s that time of year again: proposals are now being accepted to present at Opta Forum 2026, which is taking place in London at the end of March.
If you are interested in taking part, the submission deadline is 9th February. Full details can be found ⬇️
www.statsperform.com/resource/opt...
If you are interested in taking part, the submission deadline is 9th February. Full details can be found ⬇️
www.statsperform.com/resource/opt...
Opta Forum 2026: Call for Proposals - Stats Perform
Following the announcement of the return of the Opta Forum to London in 2026, we are pleased to confirm that submissions are now being accepted for the event’s annual data analytics competition. For o...
www.statsperform.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:04 PM
A great opportunity to showcase your skills to the wider sports analytics industry! We've had multiple recent presenters go on to join the Opta data science group. ⚽📐🐍
Reposted by Nils Mackay
Bayesian goal models are back in penaltyblog v1.8.0 - and this time, they’re dependency-free! ⚽️📈
January 8, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Bayesian goal models are back in penaltyblog v1.8.0 - and this time, they’re dependency-free! ⚽️📈
Reposted by Nils Mackay
We are hiring!
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
Data Scientist II
Overview Stats Perform is the market leader in sports tech. We provide the most trusted sports data to some of the world's biggest organizations, across sports, media, and broadcasting. Through the la...
tinyurl.com
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
We are hiring!
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
We are hiring!
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
Data Scientist II
Overview Stats Perform is the market leader in sports tech. We provide the most trusted sports data to some of the world's biggest organizations, across sports, media, and broadcasting. Through the la...
tinyurl.com
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
We are hiring!
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
Are you a data scientist and looking for a career in football?
Come work in our Data Science team at Stats Perform: tinyurl.com/statsperformds
(India-based only for now, EU-people stay tuned)
Reposted by Nils Mackay
The Oxford word of the year is RAGE BAIT. After calming myself down, I tried to work out what the football word of the year would be, 2000-25.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/687...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/687...
The football word of the year, 2000-2025: Park the bus, raumdeuter, prawn sandwich brigade
With 'ragebait' the Oxford English Dictionary word of the year, here's a look at what footballing equivalents might have been since 2000
www.nytimes.com
December 14, 2025 at 10:08 AM
The Oxford word of the year is RAGE BAIT. After calming myself down, I tried to work out what the football word of the year would be, 2000-25.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/687...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/687...
Champions League update!
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
October 2, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Champions League update!
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
Had a chat with @sport.nos.nl about the dire start of the European season for the Netherlands, and how it affects their chances of maintaining 6th on the UEFA Coefficients ranking.
Coëfficiëntenmalaise in Nederland: Europese nederlagen kunnen grote gevolgen hebben
Coëfficiëntenmalaise in Nederland: Europese nederlagen kunnen grote gevolgen hebben
Nederlandse clubs staan momenteel op vijf nederlagen na vijf Europese duels. Daarmee dreigt het verlies van plaatsen op de coëfficiëntenlijst.
nos.nl
September 26, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Had a chat with @sport.nos.nl about the dire start of the European season for the Netherlands, and how it affects their chances of maintaining 6th on the UEFA Coefficients ranking.
Battle for Top 10, good for direct UCL ticket:
78% —🇹🇷 Turkey (-12%)
60% —🇵🇱 Poland (+5%)
36% —🇨🇿 Czechia (-1%)
26% —🇬🇷 Greece (+8%)
Battle for Top 15, good for 1 extra European ticket:
51% — 🇨🇾Cyprus (+18%)
37% —🇦🇹Austria (-13%)
8% —🇨🇭Switzerland (-7%)
5% —🏴Scotland (-2%)
78% —🇹🇷 Turkey (-12%)
60% —🇵🇱 Poland (+5%)
36% —🇨🇿 Czechia (-1%)
26% —🇬🇷 Greece (+8%)
Battle for Top 15, good for 1 extra European ticket:
51% — 🇨🇾Cyprus (+18%)
37% —🇦🇹Austria (-13%)
8% —🇨🇭Switzerland (-7%)
5% —🏴Scotland (-2%)
September 26, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Battle for Top 10, good for direct UCL ticket:
78% —🇹🇷 Turkey (-12%)
60% —🇵🇱 Poland (+5%)
36% —🇨🇿 Czechia (-1%)
26% —🇬🇷 Greece (+8%)
Battle for Top 15, good for 1 extra European ticket:
51% — 🇨🇾Cyprus (+18%)
37% —🇦🇹Austria (-13%)
8% —🇨🇭Switzerland (-7%)
5% —🏴Scotland (-2%)
78% —🇹🇷 Turkey (-12%)
60% —🇵🇱 Poland (+5%)
36% —🇨🇿 Czechia (-1%)
26% —🇬🇷 Greece (+8%)
Battle for Top 15, good for 1 extra European ticket:
51% — 🇨🇾Cyprus (+18%)
37% —🇦🇹Austria (-13%)
8% —🇨🇭Switzerland (-7%)
5% —🏴Scotland (-2%)
🇩🇪 Germany climbing up the ranks of the yearly Coefficients ranking — good for a bonus Champions League ticket.
Two wins this week sees them rise from 5th to 3rd most likely to grab a ticket. England and Italy still favourites.
Two wins this week sees them rise from 5th to 3rd most likely to grab a ticket. England and Italy still favourites.
September 26, 2025 at 9:47 AM
🇩🇪 Germany climbing up the ranks of the yearly Coefficients ranking — good for a bonus Champions League ticket.
Two wins this week sees them rise from 5th to 3rd most likely to grab a ticket. England and Italy still favourites.
Two wins this week sees them rise from 5th to 3rd most likely to grab a ticket. England and Italy still favourites.
Here's the consequences for 🇳🇱 the Netherlands after 5 losses in 5 games.
🔹 From 80% of 6th down to almost 50%.
🔹 Even chances of dropping below Belgium, up from <0.1% to now 1.7%.
All that while the Netherlands still have 6/6 teams, while Portugal have lost 1 and Belgium already lost 2!
🔹 From 80% of 6th down to almost 50%.
🔹 Even chances of dropping below Belgium, up from <0.1% to now 1.7%.
All that while the Netherlands still have 6/6 teams, while Portugal have lost 1 and Belgium already lost 2!
September 26, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Here's the consequences for 🇳🇱 the Netherlands after 5 losses in 5 games.
🔹 From 80% of 6th down to almost 50%.
🔹 Even chances of dropping below Belgium, up from <0.1% to now 1.7%.
All that while the Netherlands still have 6/6 teams, while Portugal have lost 1 and Belgium already lost 2!
🔹 From 80% of 6th down to almost 50%.
🔹 Even chances of dropping below Belgium, up from <0.1% to now 1.7%.
All that while the Netherlands still have 6/6 teams, while Portugal have lost 1 and Belgium already lost 2!
New year, new coefficients simulation!
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
September 2, 2025 at 10:23 AM
New year, new coefficients simulation!
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
Finally, here's our Conference League predictions.
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
September 1, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Finally, here's our Conference League predictions.
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
In the Europa League, English teams are once again favoured to make an impression.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
September 1, 2025 at 1:35 PM
In the Europa League, English teams are once again favoured to make an impression.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
A new #ChampionsLeague season is upon us! Here's each team's likelihood of qualifying for Top 8 or 24, according to our predictions:
September 1, 2025 at 1:19 PM
A new #ChampionsLeague season is upon us! Here's each team's likelihood of qualifying for Top 8 or 24, according to our predictions:
First place is lava!
May 15, 2025 at 7:37 AM
First place is lava!
Reposted by Nils Mackay
🚨The third and final blog post in our series on possession value models design decisions🔍: Can the features chosen to represent the game state inadvertently bias player ratings? w/
@probberechts.bsky.social @jessejdavis.bsky.social Lode Van Tente
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
@probberechts.bsky.social @jessejdavis.bsky.social Lode Van Tente
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
An experimental analysis of possession state value models: part 3
Conceptually, possession value approaches such as VAEP, PV, OBV, and g+ are all identical: they estimate the chances of scoring (and…
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be
April 24, 2025 at 9:26 AM
🚨The third and final blog post in our series on possession value models design decisions🔍: Can the features chosen to represent the game state inadvertently bias player ratings? w/
@probberechts.bsky.social @jessejdavis.bsky.social Lode Van Tente
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
@probberechts.bsky.social @jessejdavis.bsky.social Lode Van Tente
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
I love using em dashes (—) whenever I write something, but now it seems people will just think I'm using an LLM. 💀
April 19, 2025 at 6:27 PM
I love using em dashes (—) whenever I write something, but now it seems people will just think I'm using an LLM. 💀
Not many changes on the coefficients table:
🇳🇴 Bodo/Glimt win means Norway overtakes Greece
🇵🇱 Both Polish teams lose, and 🇦🇹 Rapid Wien with a win, which means places 13-15 look mostly set.
🇸🇪 Djurgården lose and thus Sweden less like to overtake Croatia or Cyprus.
🇳🇴 Bodo/Glimt win means Norway overtakes Greece
🇵🇱 Both Polish teams lose, and 🇦🇹 Rapid Wien with a win, which means places 13-15 look mostly set.
🇸🇪 Djurgården lose and thus Sweden less like to overtake Croatia or Cyprus.
April 11, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Not many changes on the coefficients table:
🇳🇴 Bodo/Glimt win means Norway overtakes Greece
🇵🇱 Both Polish teams lose, and 🇦🇹 Rapid Wien with a win, which means places 13-15 look mostly set.
🇸🇪 Djurgården lose and thus Sweden less like to overtake Croatia or Cyprus.
🇳🇴 Bodo/Glimt win means Norway overtakes Greece
🇵🇱 Both Polish teams lose, and 🇦🇹 Rapid Wien with a win, which means places 13-15 look mostly set.
🇸🇪 Djurgården lose and thus Sweden less like to overtake Croatia or Cyprus.
After Lazio's 2-0 loss last night, the battle for the Champions League bonus ticket is just about over.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
April 11, 2025 at 12:44 PM
After Lazio's 2-0 loss last night, the battle for the Champions League bonus ticket is just about over.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
Reposted by Nils Mackay
[NEW] First blog in a long time!
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
April 1, 2025 at 8:28 AM
[NEW] First blog in a long time!
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
[NEW] First blog in a long time!
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
April 1, 2025 at 8:28 AM
[NEW] First blog in a long time!
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
I've been catfishing you all for too long — I've actually been bald for quite some years now so figured it was time to update my profile picture accordingly as well...
March 31, 2025 at 12:13 PM
I've been catfishing you all for too long — I've actually been bald for quite some years now so figured it was time to update my profile picture accordingly as well...
Reposted by Nils Mackay
We're expanding our team of Data Analysts so if you want to work for Opta and create new visualisations, dive into the data to find insights for clients and chat about sport all day, apply here. We're open to remote workers to get the best candidates.
eobe.fa.em2.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
eobe.fa.em2.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
Data Analyst
Overview: Stats Perform is the market leader in sports tech. We provide the richest and most trusted sports data available and are at the forefront of the latest advancements in AI and machine learni...
eobe.fa.em2.oraclecloud.com
March 25, 2025 at 10:56 AM
We're expanding our team of Data Analysts so if you want to work for Opta and create new visualisations, dive into the data to find insights for clients and chat about sport all day, apply here. We're open to remote workers to get the best candidates.
eobe.fa.em2.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
eobe.fa.em2.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...