Daniel Dinsdale
@dannydinsdale.bsky.social
I do football and cricket sums at Opta
We now have 155 women's and 411 men's leagues ranked on @optaanalyst.optajoe.com! You can choose from 3 simple aggregations of the team-level Opta Power Rankings to order the leagues... (1/2)
Strongest Leagues in World Football: Opta Power Rankings
Which league is the strongest in the world? Using the Opta Power Rankings, we rank every competition to reveal the strongest leagues in world football.
theanalyst.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:00 PM
We now have 155 women's and 411 men's leagues ranked on @optaanalyst.optajoe.com! You can choose from 3 simple aggregations of the team-level Opta Power Rankings to order the leagues... (1/2)
After beating Chelsea at the weekend, the mighty Sunderland are back inside the top 50 of the Opta Power Rankings. It's their first time inside the top 50 since 1st February 2011 before they lost 4-2 at home, also to Chelsea...
October 27, 2025 at 2:00 PM
After beating Chelsea at the weekend, the mighty Sunderland are back inside the top 50 of the Opta Power Rankings. It's their first time inside the top 50 since 1st February 2011 before they lost 4-2 at home, also to Chelsea...
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
Champions League update!
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
October 2, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Champions League update!
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca.
🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round.
🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination.
🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.
Interesting insights from the Opta Supercomputer himself
September 26, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Interesting insights from the Opta Supercomputer himself
Great to see the WSL added to @optaanalyst.optajoe.com, with detailed stats alongside fixture and season level predictions.
theanalyst.com/competition/...
theanalyst.com/competition/...
September 19, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Great to see the WSL added to @optaanalyst.optajoe.com, with detailed stats alongside fixture and season level predictions.
theanalyst.com/competition/...
theanalyst.com/competition/...
Szoboszlai's high workrate against Arsenal was highlighted on MoTD www.reddit.com/r/soccer/com...
For this 23 second interval, we labelled 2 off-ball runs with our new Playing Styles framework
A 82.3m cross option run (max speed 34.48 kph) and a 76.8m tracking back to position run (max 30.96 kph)
For this 23 second interval, we labelled 2 off-ball runs with our new Playing Styles framework
A 82.3m cross option run (max speed 34.48 kph) and a 76.8m tracking back to position run (max 30.96 kph)
September 3, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Szoboszlai's high workrate against Arsenal was highlighted on MoTD www.reddit.com/r/soccer/com...
For this 23 second interval, we labelled 2 off-ball runs with our new Playing Styles framework
A 82.3m cross option run (max speed 34.48 kph) and a 76.8m tracking back to position run (max 30.96 kph)
For this 23 second interval, we labelled 2 off-ball runs with our new Playing Styles framework
A 82.3m cross option run (max speed 34.48 kph) and a 76.8m tracking back to position run (max 30.96 kph)
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
A deep dive into the Donnarumma vs Ederson debate, how much worse GD's passing really is, and what it all means for the role of Premier League goalkeepers.
Pep has revolutionised the role once, but is he following a trend this time around?
theanalyst.com/articles/gia...
Pep has revolutionised the role once, but is he following a trend this time around?
theanalyst.com/articles/gia...
From Ederson to Gianluigi Donnarumma: Pep Guardiola's Choice Shows Role of Goalkeeper is Changing Again | Opta Analyst
Pep Guardiola and Ederson revolutionised the role of the goalkeeper in the Premier League, so is Manchester City signing Gianluigi Donnarumma a sign of things to come?
theanalyst.com
September 3, 2025 at 2:43 PM
A deep dive into the Donnarumma vs Ederson debate, how much worse GD's passing really is, and what it all means for the role of Premier League goalkeepers.
Pep has revolutionised the role once, but is he following a trend this time around?
theanalyst.com/articles/gia...
Pep has revolutionised the role once, but is he following a trend this time around?
theanalyst.com/articles/gia...
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
New year, new coefficients simulation!
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
September 2, 2025 at 10:23 AM
New year, new coefficients simulation!
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany.
Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
Finally, here's our Conference League predictions.
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
September 1, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Finally, here's our Conference League predictions.
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year.
Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
In the Europa League, English teams are once again favoured to make an impression.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
September 1, 2025 at 1:35 PM
In the Europa League, English teams are once again favoured to make an impression.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
A new #ChampionsLeague season is upon us! Here's each team's likelihood of qualifying for Top 8 or 24, according to our predictions:
September 1, 2025 at 1:19 PM
A new #ChampionsLeague season is upon us! Here's each team's likelihood of qualifying for Top 8 or 24, according to our predictions:
It's only been 1 gameweek, but Mbeumo is continuing his incredible off-ball work rate at United. So far he's completed the most runs in behind the opposition (whilst his team has possession), a metric which he topped last season at Brentford.
August 19, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It's only been 1 gameweek, but Mbeumo is continuing his incredible off-ball work rate at United. So far he's completed the most runs in behind the opposition (whilst his team has possession), a metric which he topped last season at Brentford.
What an innings from Jordan Cox. He went from scoring 8 runs off his first 8 deliveries, to scoring 78 from his next 21.
August 16, 2025 at 6:24 PM
What an innings from Jordan Cox. He went from scoring 8 runs off his first 8 deliveries, to scoring 78 from his next 21.
An incredible first international 100 from Dewald Brevis, from just 41 deliveries!
August 12, 2025 at 11:01 AM
An incredible first international 100 from Dewald Brevis, from just 41 deliveries!
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
England 🏴 v Sweden 🇸🇪 penalty shootout at #WEURO2025
🥇 worst total xGoT (1.23) of a shootout with >12 pens
🥇 worst conversion rate (0.38 goals per pen) of a shootout with >12 pens
(last 381 men's and women's shootouts, Opta)
🥇 worst total xGoT (1.23) of a shootout with >12 pens
🥇 worst conversion rate (0.38 goals per pen) of a shootout with >12 pens
(last 381 men's and women's shootouts, Opta)
July 20, 2025 at 11:42 AM
England 🏴 v Sweden 🇸🇪 penalty shootout at #WEURO2025
🥇 worst total xGoT (1.23) of a shootout with >12 pens
🥇 worst conversion rate (0.38 goals per pen) of a shootout with >12 pens
(last 381 men's and women's shootouts, Opta)
🥇 worst total xGoT (1.23) of a shootout with >12 pens
🥇 worst conversion rate (0.38 goals per pen) of a shootout with >12 pens
(last 381 men's and women's shootouts, Opta)
So close to a new world record from Wiaan Mulder! Just the 220 runs in boundaries
July 7, 2025 at 10:49 AM
So close to a new world record from Wiaan Mulder! Just the 220 runs in boundaries
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
An interesting graphic considering his absence for much of last season. Timber offered a lot in defence but in attack Arsenal missed Ben White on the overlap.
July 4, 2025 at 8:23 AM
An interesting graphic considering his absence for much of last season. Timber offered a lot in defence but in attack Arsenal missed Ben White on the overlap.
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
𝐖𝐡𝐨 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐖𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐄𝐅𝐀 𝐖𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧’𝐬 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓? 🏆
Women’s Euro 2025 is about to take centre stage in Europe, but who are the favourites to lift the trophy come the end of July?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament predictions: theanalyst.com/articles/uef...
Women’s Euro 2025 is about to take centre stage in Europe, but who are the favourites to lift the trophy come the end of July?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament predictions: theanalyst.com/articles/uef...
June 26, 2025 at 8:25 AM
𝐖𝐡𝐨 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐖𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐄𝐅𝐀 𝐖𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧’𝐬 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓? 🏆
Women’s Euro 2025 is about to take centre stage in Europe, but who are the favourites to lift the trophy come the end of July?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament predictions: theanalyst.com/articles/uef...
Women’s Euro 2025 is about to take centre stage in Europe, but who are the favourites to lift the trophy come the end of July?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament predictions: theanalyst.com/articles/uef...
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
With reported interest from Bayern Munich and summer transfer speculation brewing, Arsenal face a decision on Gabriel Martinelli. Their attack needs a refresh, but does that mean moving on from the talented Brazilian?
✍️ @orbinho.bsky.social
theanalyst.com/articles/gab...
✍️ @orbinho.bsky.social
theanalyst.com/articles/gab...
As Arsenal Hunt for More Creativity Out Wide, Should They Stick or Twist With Gabriel Martinelli? | Opta Analyst
Arsenal face a decision on Gabriel Martinelli. Their attack needs a refresh, but does that mean moving on from the talented Brazilian?
theanalyst.com
June 25, 2025 at 12:49 PM
With reported interest from Bayern Munich and summer transfer speculation brewing, Arsenal face a decision on Gabriel Martinelli. Their attack needs a refresh, but does that mean moving on from the talented Brazilian?
✍️ @orbinho.bsky.social
theanalyst.com/articles/gab...
✍️ @orbinho.bsky.social
theanalyst.com/articles/gab...
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
alternative: 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰/𝟮𝟱
eligibility:
✅ <=21 y.o. at start of season
✅ 1500+ minutes
✅ first 1500+ minute season in a top tier league
eligibility:
✅ <=21 y.o. at start of season
✅ 1500+ minutes
✅ first 1500+ minute season in a top tier league
May 26, 2025 at 9:05 AM
alternative: 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰/𝟮𝟱
eligibility:
✅ <=21 y.o. at start of season
✅ 1500+ minutes
✅ first 1500+ minute season in a top tier league
eligibility:
✅ <=21 y.o. at start of season
✅ 1500+ minutes
✅ first 1500+ minute season in a top tier league
On 9-5-2011 we had FK Bodø/Glimt ranked 2212 in the world. They had taken 2 points from the first 5 games in the Norwegian 2nd tier and were sat in the relegation zone.
Today they are ranked 68 and Europa League Semi-Finalists. An incredible turnaround.
Today they are ranked 68 and Europa League Semi-Finalists. An incredible turnaround.
April 30, 2025 at 2:36 PM
On 9-5-2011 we had FK Bodø/Glimt ranked 2212 in the world. They had taken 2 points from the first 5 games in the Norwegian 2nd tier and were sat in the relegation zone.
Today they are ranked 68 and Europa League Semi-Finalists. An incredible turnaround.
Today they are ranked 68 and Europa League Semi-Finalists. An incredible turnaround.
At 14 years old I was doing this on Brain Lara Cricket to be fair, not that impressive 😪
April 28, 2025 at 5:09 PM
At 14 years old I was doing this on Brain Lara Cricket to be fair, not that impressive 😪
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
After Lazio's 2-0 loss last night, the battle for the Champions League bonus ticket is just about over.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
April 11, 2025 at 12:44 PM
After Lazio's 2-0 loss last night, the battle for the Champions League bonus ticket is just about over.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
🏴 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket
🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure
For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
[NEW] First blog in a long time!
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
April 1, 2025 at 8:28 AM
[NEW] First blog in a long time!
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds.
This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models.
mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...
Reposted by Daniel Dinsdale
Stats Perform are looking for someone to join the data analysis team to work along side Jonny Whitmore and Jon Manuel. If you're passionate about football data and want to shape how we see the game through engaging visualisations, be sure to apply! ⚽️📈📊 #dataviz
t.co/lOaOOtBJAY
t.co/lOaOOtBJAY
https://eobe.fa.em2.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/CandidateExperience/en/sites/CX_1001/job/692/?utm_medium=jobshare&utm_source=External+Job+Share
t.co
March 28, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Stats Perform are looking for someone to join the data analysis team to work along side Jonny Whitmore and Jon Manuel. If you're passionate about football data and want to shape how we see the game through engaging visualisations, be sure to apply! ⚽️📈📊 #dataviz
t.co/lOaOOtBJAY
t.co/lOaOOtBJAY