As someone who's had to write code around MLS competition format, I can attest that best-of-3 is the worst thing in the history of football and MLS should be banned by FIFA as a fair punishment.
November 10, 2025 at 6:37 AM
As someone who's had to write code around MLS competition format, I can attest that best-of-3 is the worst thing in the history of football and MLS should be banned by FIFA as a fair punishment.
Great article. My main question with an approach like this is how valuable is it really for clubs if most transfer targets will have taken relatively few shots?
E.g. how many seasons of data do we need to make a judgement? Or how many shots? I imagine for most players it's indistinguishable from 0
E.g. how many seasons of data do we need to make a judgement? Or how many shots? I imagine for most players it's indistinguishable from 0
October 23, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Great article. My main question with an approach like this is how valuable is it really for clubs if most transfer targets will have taken relatively few shots?
E.g. how many seasons of data do we need to make a judgement? Or how many shots? I imagine for most players it's indistinguishable from 0
E.g. how many seasons of data do we need to make a judgement? Or how many shots? I imagine for most players it's indistinguishable from 0
Probably not France, but definitely for Portugal and the Netherlands. Dependent on how this season goes, they might start the season in 6th even!
September 4, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Probably not France, but definitely for Portugal and the Netherlands. Dependent on how this season goes, they might start the season in 6th even!
Clearly putting more effort into the offensive run!!
September 4, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Clearly putting more effort into the offensive run!!
That said, a 6 point gap is not nothing. Things will have to go quite bad for Germany and vice versa for France to make this a reality.
Still, it's the closest a country has been to breaking into Top 4 since 2014. Last year the gap was 13 points, and ±20 points the years prior.
Still, it's the closest a country has been to breaking into Top 4 since 2014. Last year the gap was 13 points, and ±20 points the years prior.
September 2, 2025 at 10:23 AM
That said, a 6 point gap is not nothing. Things will have to go quite bad for Germany and vice versa for France to make this a reality.
Still, it's the closest a country has been to breaking into Top 4 since 2014. Last year the gap was 13 points, and ±20 points the years prior.
Still, it's the closest a country has been to breaking into Top 4 since 2014. Last year the gap was 13 points, and ±20 points the years prior.
That's fair. Truth is the model does a simulation and there's some noise involved, and especially with very low numbers like Marseille ending 1st this can lead to some weird looking results. The 0.2% ending 1st for them is likely a fluke of this specific simulation.
September 2, 2025 at 6:15 AM
That's fair. Truth is the model does a simulation and there's some noise involved, and especially with very low numbers like Marseille ending 1st this can lead to some weird looking results. The 0.2% ending 1st for them is likely a fluke of this specific simulation.
Nice writeup! Any reason you didn't go with actual game results (instead of simulated ones) for the final test?
May 2, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Nice writeup! Any reason you didn't go with actual game results (instead of simulated ones) for the final test?
Yes, then 6 Spanish teams will be in UCL next year.
April 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Yes, then 6 Spanish teams will be in UCL next year.
I never realized it can be used in two different ways and now I will forever doubt if I'm using it correctly, thanks John.
April 11, 2025 at 1:30 PM
I never realized it can be used in two different ways and now I will forever doubt if I'm using it correctly, thanks John.
Yeah that's a pain for sure haha. Good luck!
April 10, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Yeah that's a pain for sure haha. Good luck!