Nick Roy
@nicholasroy.me
energy modeler, economist, cat dad | he/him | views my own
focused on subnational carbon markets and national power policy
research associate @rff.org
Work: https://www.rff.org/people/nicholas-roy/
focused on subnational carbon markets and national power policy
research associate @rff.org
Work: https://www.rff.org/people/nicholas-roy/
Reposted by Nick Roy
Large Labubu Model
September 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Large Labubu Model
Reposted by Nick Roy
Corner solutions revisited
August 31, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Corner solutions revisited
Reposted by Nick Roy
New policies aimed at increasing energy affordability could make prices worse. ⚡🏠
In a recent If/Then blog, RFF research finds that rolling back clean energy incentives could create more volatility in energy markets and raise costs.
Read more: www.resources.org/common-resou...
In a recent If/Then blog, RFF research finds that rolling back clean energy incentives could create more volatility in energy markets and raise costs.
Read more: www.resources.org/common-resou...
If/Then: Unintended Effects of Recent Federal Actions on Electricity Prices
If the administration’s push to increase US dependence on fossil fuel–powered electricity generation is implemented as intended, then higher electricity rates and more uncertainty over future electric...
www.resources.org
August 28, 2025 at 2:20 PM
New policies aimed at increasing energy affordability could make prices worse. ⚡🏠
In a recent If/Then blog, RFF research finds that rolling back clean energy incentives could create more volatility in energy markets and raise costs.
Read more: www.resources.org/common-resou...
In a recent If/Then blog, RFF research finds that rolling back clean energy incentives could create more volatility in energy markets and raise costs.
Read more: www.resources.org/common-resou...
Reposted by Nick Roy
Calling all transit fans! Let your voice be heard. 🚇
🗳️ Vote on the exterior design for our new 8000-series rail fleet! Voting will close at 11:59 PM on August 22. Winning concept will be announced next week.
Vote before time runs out: wmata.questionpro.com/a/TakeSurvey...
🗳️ Vote on the exterior design for our new 8000-series rail fleet! Voting will close at 11:59 PM on August 22. Winning concept will be announced next week.
Vote before time runs out: wmata.questionpro.com/a/TakeSurvey...
August 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Calling all transit fans! Let your voice be heard. 🚇
🗳️ Vote on the exterior design for our new 8000-series rail fleet! Voting will close at 11:59 PM on August 22. Winning concept will be announced next week.
Vote before time runs out: wmata.questionpro.com/a/TakeSurvey...
🗳️ Vote on the exterior design for our new 8000-series rail fleet! Voting will close at 11:59 PM on August 22. Winning concept will be announced next week.
Vote before time runs out: wmata.questionpro.com/a/TakeSurvey...
Insightful @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social post from @severinborenstein.bsky.social on California refineries. It'll get you up to speed on the facts, opportunities, and tensions as the California legislative session begins this week.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/08/18/c...
Great opening figure!
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/08/18/c...
Great opening figure!
August 18, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Insightful @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social post from @severinborenstein.bsky.social on California refineries. It'll get you up to speed on the facts, opportunities, and tensions as the California legislative session begins this week.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/08/18/c...
Great opening figure!
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/08/18/c...
Great opening figure!
Spent so much time writing about clean air act repeal that I forgot to replace my air purifiers! We are going the direct air capture route because the actors below refuse to install scrubbers.
August 13, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Spent so much time writing about clean air act repeal that I forgot to replace my air purifiers! We are going the direct air capture route because the actors below refuse to install scrubbers.
Reposted by Nick Roy
New paper from EPRI and Epoch AI: Frontier AI training runs are projected to consume 1-2 gigawatts each by 2028 and exceed 4 GW per run by 2030 (up from ~100-150 MW today)
August 11, 2025 at 3:19 PM
New paper from EPRI and Epoch AI: Frontier AI training runs are projected to consume 1-2 gigawatts each by 2028 and exceed 4 GW per run by 2030 (up from ~100-150 MW today)
Reposted by Nick Roy
all my homies live in a low dimensional feature subspace
August 9, 2025 at 12:45 AM
all my homies live in a low dimensional feature subspace
New blog post with my colleague on how new policy decisions expose fossil dependent grids to greater electricity price uncertainty.
www.resources.org/common-resou...
www.resources.org/common-resou...
August 8, 2025 at 1:04 PM
New blog post with my colleague on how new policy decisions expose fossil dependent grids to greater electricity price uncertainty.
www.resources.org/common-resou...
www.resources.org/common-resou...
For those curious about the impacts of EPAs Carbon Pollution Standard repeal.
www.rff.org/publications...
TLDR:
- health + climate damages > savings in compliance costs
- health damages outweigh compliance cost savings 2-4x.
- health + climate damages outweigh compliance cost savings 4-8x.
www.rff.org/publications...
TLDR:
- health + climate damages > savings in compliance costs
- health damages outweigh compliance cost savings 2-4x.
- health + climate damages outweigh compliance cost savings 4-8x.
Hidden Costs of Repealing EPA’s Carbon Pollution Standards: Consequences for the Environment, Households, and Society
Hidden Costs of Repealing EPA’s Carbon Pollution Standards: Consequences for the Environment, Households, and Society
www.rff.org
August 6, 2025 at 9:10 PM
For those curious about the impacts of EPAs Carbon Pollution Standard repeal.
www.rff.org/publications...
TLDR:
- health + climate damages > savings in compliance costs
- health damages outweigh compliance cost savings 2-4x.
- health + climate damages outweigh compliance cost savings 4-8x.
www.rff.org/publications...
TLDR:
- health + climate damages > savings in compliance costs
- health damages outweigh compliance cost savings 2-4x.
- health + climate damages outweigh compliance cost savings 4-8x.
State carbon markets are the policy laboratory for US climate policy we all should be watching. Especially as we watch federal support for carbon emissions reductions evaporate.
Federal climate action is slowing, but states are using emissions trading systems to cut emissions and raise state revenue. RFF Research Associate Nicholas Roy explains how in this new In Focus video 👇
July 31, 2025 at 2:29 PM
State carbon markets are the policy laboratory for US climate policy we all should be watching. Especially as we watch federal support for carbon emissions reductions evaporate.
Reposted by Nick Roy
Federal climate action is slowing, but states are using emissions trading systems to cut emissions and raise state revenue. RFF Research Associate Nicholas Roy explains how in this new In Focus video 👇
July 31, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Federal climate action is slowing, but states are using emissions trading systems to cut emissions and raise state revenue. RFF Research Associate Nicholas Roy explains how in this new In Focus video 👇
Reposted by Nick Roy
What does the One Big "Beautiful" Bill mean for the US energy transition, household and business energy costs, electricity supplies and emissions? We've published a quick summary report of our findings here: doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #OBBB
🔌💡
🔌💡
July 2, 2025 at 9:59 PM
What does the One Big "Beautiful" Bill mean for the US energy transition, household and business energy costs, electricity supplies and emissions? We've published a quick summary report of our findings here: doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #OBBB
🔌💡
🔌💡
Reposted by Nick Roy
This Op-Ed on a U.S. carbon tariff gets lots of basic stuff wrong.
Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff
1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/
#econsky #climatesky
Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff
1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/
#econsky #climatesky
Opinion | A carbon tariff is the right way to confront China on trade
Climate-friendly tariffs would penalize countries that undercut U.S. companies with dirtier production.
www.washingtonpost.com
June 24, 2025 at 7:15 AM
This Op-Ed on a U.S. carbon tariff gets lots of basic stuff wrong.
Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff
1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/
#econsky #climatesky
Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff
1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/
#econsky #climatesky
Reposted by Nick Roy
I agree with all of Kyle’s critiques and would add 2 more:
1. The piece cites Australia and Canada as countries where voters rejected carbon prices, but that’s not true. In AUS it’s called a “safeguard mechanism” and was put in place in 2023. CAN kept the price for industries the focus of the piece
1. The piece cites Australia and Canada as countries where voters rejected carbon prices, but that’s not true. In AUS it’s called a “safeguard mechanism” and was put in place in 2023. CAN kept the price for industries the focus of the piece
This Op-Ed on a U.S. carbon tariff gets lots of basic stuff wrong.
Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff
1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/
#econsky #climatesky
Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff
1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/
#econsky #climatesky
Opinion | A carbon tariff is the right way to confront China on trade
Climate-friendly tariffs would penalize countries that undercut U.S. companies with dirtier production.
www.washingtonpost.com
June 24, 2025 at 8:20 AM
I agree with all of Kyle’s critiques and would add 2 more:
1. The piece cites Australia and Canada as countries where voters rejected carbon prices, but that’s not true. In AUS it’s called a “safeguard mechanism” and was put in place in 2023. CAN kept the price for industries the focus of the piece
1. The piece cites Australia and Canada as countries where voters rejected carbon prices, but that’s not true. In AUS it’s called a “safeguard mechanism” and was put in place in 2023. CAN kept the price for industries the focus of the piece
Reposted by Nick Roy
Senate Finance text is out. Solar and wind out by 2028 except one weird carveout. Batteries keep full ITC /PTC and expanded component eligibility in 45X?
(Text keeps transferability but gets rid of 5-year MACRS depreciation on *all* zero-emissions tech. Bad for clean firm!)
(Text keeps transferability but gets rid of 5-year MACRS depreciation on *all* zero-emissions tech. Bad for clean firm!)
June 16, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Senate Finance text is out. Solar and wind out by 2028 except one weird carveout. Batteries keep full ITC /PTC and expanded component eligibility in 45X?
(Text keeps transferability but gets rid of 5-year MACRS depreciation on *all* zero-emissions tech. Bad for clean firm!)
(Text keeps transferability but gets rid of 5-year MACRS depreciation on *all* zero-emissions tech. Bad for clean firm!)
Reposted by Nick Roy
Read the full paper here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt5665
Or the two-page summary: restservice.epri.com/publicattach...
Or the tl;dr thread: bsky.app/profile/bist...
@aafawcett.bsky.social @jessedjenkins.com @nicholasroy.me @aliciaszhao.bsky.social
Or the two-page summary: restservice.epri.com/publicattach...
Or the tl;dr thread: bsky.app/profile/bist...
@aafawcett.bsky.social @jessedjenkins.com @nicholasroy.me @aliciaszhao.bsky.social
June 11, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Read the full paper here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt5665
Or the two-page summary: restservice.epri.com/publicattach...
Or the tl;dr thread: bsky.app/profile/bist...
@aafawcett.bsky.social @jessedjenkins.com @nicholasroy.me @aliciaszhao.bsky.social
Or the two-page summary: restservice.epri.com/publicattach...
Or the tl;dr thread: bsky.app/profile/bist...
@aafawcett.bsky.social @jessedjenkins.com @nicholasroy.me @aliciaszhao.bsky.social
Reposted by Nick Roy
With @cagovernornewsom.bsky.social's budget out, CA cap-and-trade reauthorization is fully underway.
Today, we release a UCSB emLab analysis showing how C&T revenue can significantly lower California's too-high retail electricity prices.
Exec summary, paper, online calculator below.
Short 🧵1/
Today, we release a UCSB emLab analysis showing how C&T revenue can significantly lower California's too-high retail electricity prices.
Exec summary, paper, online calculator below.
Short 🧵1/
Using California’s cap-and-trade revenue to lower electricity prices | emLab
emlab.ucsb.edu
May 19, 2025 at 8:35 PM
With @cagovernornewsom.bsky.social's budget out, CA cap-and-trade reauthorization is fully underway.
Today, we release a UCSB emLab analysis showing how C&T revenue can significantly lower California's too-high retail electricity prices.
Exec summary, paper, online calculator below.
Short 🧵1/
Today, we release a UCSB emLab analysis showing how C&T revenue can significantly lower California's too-high retail electricity prices.
Exec summary, paper, online calculator below.
Short 🧵1/
UCSB researchers just released a great analysis of how to use the state's cap-and-trade program revenues to invest in energy affordability. 1 pager, policy brief, and online calculator are all great tools! emlab.ucsb.edu/projects/usi...
May 19, 2025 at 10:07 PM
UCSB researchers just released a great analysis of how to use the state's cap-and-trade program revenues to invest in energy affordability. 1 pager, policy brief, and online calculator are all great tools! emlab.ucsb.edu/projects/usi...
Great thread unraveling right now that is breaking down the political history of California's cap-and-trade and how we got to today's reauthorization.
If this post gets 50 likes, i will go ahead and make a long thread about it all, but otherwise won't bother, bc it is kind of a lit of work and i am p busy, so i want to do stuff that is actually useful to people
Feel like i should explain what's happening with California's cap and trade, since I am one of like four people who both understands what is happening but is not actively participating in the negotiations.
May 16, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Great thread unraveling right now that is breaking down the political history of California's cap-and-trade and how we got to today's reauthorization.
Many are saying the current reconciliation proposal is equivalent to a full repeal of the IRA. We analyzed the repeal of clean electricity tax credits in an earlier issue brief.
Household, fiscal, and emissions impacts all included!
www.rff.org/publications...
Household, fiscal, and emissions impacts all included!
www.rff.org/publications...
Projected Impacts of Repealing the Section 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Tax Credits
Projected Impacts of Repealing the Section 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Tax Credits
www.rff.org
May 13, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Many are saying the current reconciliation proposal is equivalent to a full repeal of the IRA. We analyzed the repeal of clean electricity tax credits in an earlier issue brief.
Household, fiscal, and emissions impacts all included!
www.rff.org/publications...
Household, fiscal, and emissions impacts all included!
www.rff.org/publications...
The ways and means adjustment to IRA clean electricity tax credits are out. Phaseout of tax credits begins in 2029-2032. Modeling coming soon.
waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/u...
waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/u...
May 12, 2025 at 7:57 PM
The ways and means adjustment to IRA clean electricity tax credits are out. Phaseout of tax credits begins in 2029-2032. Modeling coming soon.
waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/u...
waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/u...
github.com/macroenergy/... Cool model for those interested in macro-energy systems modeling!
GitHub - macroenergy/MacroEnergy.jl
Contribute to macroenergy/MacroEnergy.jl development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
May 7, 2025 at 5:36 PM
github.com/macroenergy/... Cool model for those interested in macro-energy systems modeling!
Reposted by Nick Roy
This is the best technical source for the premature discussions on the Iberian blackout that I've seen. This professional is fair minded and he puts the blame on the N-2 generation failures and the islanding while also saying inertia was not the issue
www.linkedin.com/posts/luisba...
www.linkedin.com/posts/luisba...
May 2, 2025 at 1:24 PM
This is the best technical source for the premature discussions on the Iberian blackout that I've seen. This professional is fair minded and he puts the blame on the N-2 generation failures and the islanding while also saying inertia was not the issue
www.linkedin.com/posts/luisba...
www.linkedin.com/posts/luisba...
Cool, now do GHG emissions (or at least CO2)
🚨 WHITE HOUSE: AMAZON SHOWING TARIFFS ON EACH PRODUCT IS A HOSTILE AND POLITICAL ACT
April 29, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Cool, now do GHG emissions (or at least CO2)