Colin Robertson
@mortgagetruth.bsky.social
Wholesale AE in the early 2000s. Commentary on mortgage/real estate/housing market since 2006 @ http://thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Given the "hot" jobs report today and the fact bond yields are now flat, you can see a path to mortgage rates firmly in the 5s.
If this were late 2024, mortgage rates would be flying higher on a report like today's.
Instead, barely changed, which makes you wonder what a cold jobs report would.
If this were late 2024, mortgage rates would be flying higher on a report like today's.
Instead, barely changed, which makes you wonder what a cold jobs report would.
February 11, 2026 at 6:53 PM
Given the "hot" jobs report today and the fact bond yields are now flat, you can see a path to mortgage rates firmly in the 5s.
If this were late 2024, mortgage rates would be flying higher on a report like today's.
Instead, barely changed, which makes you wonder what a cold jobs report would.
If this were late 2024, mortgage rates would be flying higher on a report like today's.
Instead, barely changed, which makes you wonder what a cold jobs report would.
Another benefit to a low-rate mortgage is that you pay it down faster versus a higher-rate loan.
So despite a lower monthly payment, more of that payment actually goes toward the principal balance instead of interest.
It's a win-win. Or lose-lose if you have the higher rate.
So despite a lower monthly payment, more of that payment actually goes toward the principal balance instead of interest.
It's a win-win. Or lose-lose if you have the higher rate.
February 9, 2026 at 7:23 PM
Another benefit to a low-rate mortgage is that you pay it down faster versus a higher-rate loan.
So despite a lower monthly payment, more of that payment actually goes toward the principal balance instead of interest.
It's a win-win. Or lose-lose if you have the higher rate.
So despite a lower monthly payment, more of that payment actually goes toward the principal balance instead of interest.
It's a win-win. Or lose-lose if you have the higher rate.
Another bank is throwing in the towel on mortgages.
Amalgamated Bank will direct customers seeking a mortgage to use its new partner Embrace Home Loans.
The direct lender will originate and service mortgages through a platform designed specifically for the bank’s customers.
Amalgamated Bank will direct customers seeking a mortgage to use its new partner Embrace Home Loans.
The direct lender will originate and service mortgages through a platform designed specifically for the bank’s customers.
February 5, 2026 at 8:35 PM
Another bank is throwing in the towel on mortgages.
Amalgamated Bank will direct customers seeking a mortgage to use its new partner Embrace Home Loans.
The direct lender will originate and service mortgages through a platform designed specifically for the bank’s customers.
Amalgamated Bank will direct customers seeking a mortgage to use its new partner Embrace Home Loans.
The direct lender will originate and service mortgages through a platform designed specifically for the bank’s customers.
Mortgage rates are psychological, even if the difference in monthly payment is negligible.
The reason why is home buyers are HIGHLY emotional.
For example, a new survey found 2/3 of buyers would postpone the purchase if mortgage rates rise "even slightly from today’s level."
The reason why is home buyers are HIGHLY emotional.
For example, a new survey found 2/3 of buyers would postpone the purchase if mortgage rates rise "even slightly from today’s level."
February 5, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Mortgage rates are psychological, even if the difference in monthly payment is negligible.
The reason why is home buyers are HIGHLY emotional.
For example, a new survey found 2/3 of buyers would postpone the purchase if mortgage rates rise "even slightly from today’s level."
The reason why is home buyers are HIGHLY emotional.
For example, a new survey found 2/3 of buyers would postpone the purchase if mortgage rates rise "even slightly from today’s level."
Trump on home prices:
"People that own their homes, we're going to keep them wealthy, we're going to keep those prices up."
"We're not going to destroy the value of their homes so that somebody that didn't work very hard can buy a home."
"People that own their homes, we're going to keep them wealthy, we're going to keep those prices up."
"We're not going to destroy the value of their homes so that somebody that didn't work very hard can buy a home."
February 2, 2026 at 9:58 PM
Trump on home prices:
"People that own their homes, we're going to keep them wealthy, we're going to keep those prices up."
"We're not going to destroy the value of their homes so that somebody that didn't work very hard can buy a home."
"People that own their homes, we're going to keep them wealthy, we're going to keep those prices up."
"We're not going to destroy the value of their homes so that somebody that didn't work very hard can buy a home."
Trump on mortgage rates last night:
“When you’re really good you can get ‘em down despite everything cause ultimately it just sort of follows nature.”
“By the way, when we have a great Fed chairman, I think we’re gonna have one, I’ll announce it pretty soon.”
“You’ll see rates come down a lot.”
“When you’re really good you can get ‘em down despite everything cause ultimately it just sort of follows nature.”
“By the way, when we have a great Fed chairman, I think we’re gonna have one, I’ll announce it pretty soon.”
“You’ll see rates come down a lot.”
January 28, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Trump on mortgage rates last night:
“When you’re really good you can get ‘em down despite everything cause ultimately it just sort of follows nature.”
“By the way, when we have a great Fed chairman, I think we’re gonna have one, I’ll announce it pretty soon.”
“You’ll see rates come down a lot.”
“When you’re really good you can get ‘em down despite everything cause ultimately it just sort of follows nature.”
“By the way, when we have a great Fed chairman, I think we’re gonna have one, I’ll announce it pretty soon.”
“You’ll see rates come down a lot.”
There is very little historical correlation between home prices and mortgage rates.
Don't assume prices will come down because rates go up.
And don't assume prices will go up because rates fall.
Don't assume prices will come down because rates go up.
And don't assume prices will go up because rates fall.
January 27, 2026 at 5:52 PM
There is very little historical correlation between home prices and mortgage rates.
Don't assume prices will come down because rates go up.
And don't assume prices will go up because rates fall.
Don't assume prices will come down because rates go up.
And don't assume prices will go up because rates fall.
Mortgage rates have a new threat.
Trump has announced a tariff hike on Korean imports from 15% to 25%.
Is this stuff keeps happening it's going to be tough to get 30-year fixed rates back below 6%.
It completely counteracts the positive stuff like MBS buying.
Makes you wonder.
Trump has announced a tariff hike on Korean imports from 15% to 25%.
Is this stuff keeps happening it's going to be tough to get 30-year fixed rates back below 6%.
It completely counteracts the positive stuff like MBS buying.
Makes you wonder.
January 26, 2026 at 11:58 PM
Mortgage rates have a new threat.
Trump has announced a tariff hike on Korean imports from 15% to 25%.
Is this stuff keeps happening it's going to be tough to get 30-year fixed rates back below 6%.
It completely counteracts the positive stuff like MBS buying.
Makes you wonder.
Trump has announced a tariff hike on Korean imports from 15% to 25%.
Is this stuff keeps happening it's going to be tough to get 30-year fixed rates back below 6%.
It completely counteracts the positive stuff like MBS buying.
Makes you wonder.
A new proposal would completely eliminate LLPAs on rate and term refis.
Existing Fannie/Freddie loans could be refinanced w/o various pricing hits if the borrower had a clean payment history.
End result is more refis pencil while also reducing default risk via a lower monthly payment.
Existing Fannie/Freddie loans could be refinanced w/o various pricing hits if the borrower had a clean payment history.
End result is more refis pencil while also reducing default risk via a lower monthly payment.
January 22, 2026 at 8:00 PM
A new proposal would completely eliminate LLPAs on rate and term refis.
Existing Fannie/Freddie loans could be refinanced w/o various pricing hits if the borrower had a clean payment history.
End result is more refis pencil while also reducing default risk via a lower monthly payment.
Existing Fannie/Freddie loans could be refinanced w/o various pricing hits if the borrower had a clean payment history.
End result is more refis pencil while also reducing default risk via a lower monthly payment.
A friend of a friend was visiting from Austin, TX this past weekend.
He mentioned they were looking to buy a home after renting there for the past ~3 years.
Said it finally makes sense to buy due to lower rates, lower prices, and better inventory.
He mentioned they were looking to buy a home after renting there for the past ~3 years.
Said it finally makes sense to buy due to lower rates, lower prices, and better inventory.
January 22, 2026 at 4:27 PM
A friend of a friend was visiting from Austin, TX this past weekend.
He mentioned they were looking to buy a home after renting there for the past ~3 years.
Said it finally makes sense to buy due to lower rates, lower prices, and better inventory.
He mentioned they were looking to buy a home after renting there for the past ~3 years.
Said it finally makes sense to buy due to lower rates, lower prices, and better inventory.
Trump on housing from Davos:
"...I don't want to do anything that's gonna hurt the value of people that own a house, who for the first time in their lives are walking around the streets of whatever city they're in, very proud that their house is worth $500, $600, $700,000."
"...I don't want to do anything that's gonna hurt the value of people that own a house, who for the first time in their lives are walking around the streets of whatever city they're in, very proud that their house is worth $500, $600, $700,000."
January 21, 2026 at 7:58 PM
Trump on housing from Davos:
"...I don't want to do anything that's gonna hurt the value of people that own a house, who for the first time in their lives are walking around the streets of whatever city they're in, very proud that their house is worth $500, $600, $700,000."
"...I don't want to do anything that's gonna hurt the value of people that own a house, who for the first time in their lives are walking around the streets of whatever city they're in, very proud that their house is worth $500, $600, $700,000."
This is what I'm seeing from three big banks today for a 30-year fixed:
- Was 5.50%, now 5.625%
- Was 5.875%, now 6.00%
- Was 6.00%, now 6.125%
Not a massive payment difference, but yet another setback sentiment-wise for prospective home buyers who are on the fence.
- Was 5.50%, now 5.625%
- Was 5.875%, now 6.00%
- Was 6.00%, now 6.125%
Not a massive payment difference, but yet another setback sentiment-wise for prospective home buyers who are on the fence.
January 21, 2026 at 7:15 PM
This is what I'm seeing from three big banks today for a 30-year fixed:
- Was 5.50%, now 5.625%
- Was 5.875%, now 6.00%
- Was 6.00%, now 6.125%
Not a massive payment difference, but yet another setback sentiment-wise for prospective home buyers who are on the fence.
- Was 5.50%, now 5.625%
- Was 5.875%, now 6.00%
- Was 6.00%, now 6.125%
Not a massive payment difference, but yet another setback sentiment-wise for prospective home buyers who are on the fence.
We did it. We managed to get the 30-year fixed right back to the 6.21% average last seen right before the MBS buying program was unveiled.
Congrats everyone! 🥳
Congrats everyone! 🥳
January 21, 2026 at 2:54 AM
We did it. We managed to get the 30-year fixed right back to the 6.21% average last seen right before the MBS buying program was unveiled.
Congrats everyone! 🥳
Congrats everyone! 🥳
I don’t think the economy can handle another tariff drama.
Hopefully it doesn’t ruin another spring housing market.
The year started out well but this could derail things.
Namely, it could blow out bond yields again, slow down the Fed’s plan to make additional cuts, and push up mortgage rates.
Hopefully it doesn’t ruin another spring housing market.
The year started out well but this could derail things.
Namely, it could blow out bond yields again, slow down the Fed’s plan to make additional cuts, and push up mortgage rates.
January 20, 2026 at 3:44 AM
I don’t think the economy can handle another tariff drama.
Hopefully it doesn’t ruin another spring housing market.
The year started out well but this could derail things.
Namely, it could blow out bond yields again, slow down the Fed’s plan to make additional cuts, and push up mortgage rates.
Hopefully it doesn’t ruin another spring housing market.
The year started out well but this could derail things.
Namely, it could blow out bond yields again, slow down the Fed’s plan to make additional cuts, and push up mortgage rates.
If you're going to buy a home, please look at an amortization schedule before you do.
That way you can see the total amount of interest due over 30 years BEFORE you make the decision.
Don't do so afterwards and then go on social media and complain about all the interest you have to pay.
That way you can see the total amount of interest due over 30 years BEFORE you make the decision.
Don't do so afterwards and then go on social media and complain about all the interest you have to pay.
January 17, 2026 at 5:08 PM
If you're going to buy a home, please look at an amortization schedule before you do.
That way you can see the total amount of interest due over 30 years BEFORE you make the decision.
Don't do so afterwards and then go on social media and complain about all the interest you have to pay.
That way you can see the total amount of interest due over 30 years BEFORE you make the decision.
Don't do so afterwards and then go on social media and complain about all the interest you have to pay.
To my knowledge, nobody under age 40 has ever participated in a mail survey.
Apparently the survey contained 120 questions...and required the participant to walk the letter out to their mailbox. Maybe even lick a stamp.
So the notion that the median first-time home buyer age is 40 is hilarious.
Apparently the survey contained 120 questions...and required the participant to walk the letter out to their mailbox. Maybe even lick a stamp.
So the notion that the median first-time home buyer age is 40 is hilarious.
January 16, 2026 at 4:34 PM
To my knowledge, nobody under age 40 has ever participated in a mail survey.
Apparently the survey contained 120 questions...and required the participant to walk the letter out to their mailbox. Maybe even lick a stamp.
So the notion that the median first-time home buyer age is 40 is hilarious.
Apparently the survey contained 120 questions...and required the participant to walk the letter out to their mailbox. Maybe even lick a stamp.
So the notion that the median first-time home buyer age is 40 is hilarious.
Despite a slight bounce in mortgage rates this week, actual rate locks remain very close to their lows.
Average rate lock yesterday for a 30-year fixed was 6.02% vs. 5.99% on Monday, when rates hit 3-year lows, per Optimal Blue.
Tells you the MBS buying program is still having a sizable impact.
Average rate lock yesterday for a 30-year fixed was 6.02% vs. 5.99% on Monday, when rates hit 3-year lows, per Optimal Blue.
Tells you the MBS buying program is still having a sizable impact.
January 15, 2026 at 7:14 PM
Despite a slight bounce in mortgage rates this week, actual rate locks remain very close to their lows.
Average rate lock yesterday for a 30-year fixed was 6.02% vs. 5.99% on Monday, when rates hit 3-year lows, per Optimal Blue.
Tells you the MBS buying program is still having a sizable impact.
Average rate lock yesterday for a 30-year fixed was 6.02% vs. 5.99% on Monday, when rates hit 3-year lows, per Optimal Blue.
Tells you the MBS buying program is still having a sizable impact.
Lower Mortgage has acquired another mortgage lender, this time scooping up Nashville-based Acopia Home Loans.
The deal will apparently add more than $425 million in annual loan production via 14 branch locations and 36 loan originators.
Lower funded roughly $5B in 2024 (latest data available).
The deal will apparently add more than $425 million in annual loan production via 14 branch locations and 36 loan originators.
Lower funded roughly $5B in 2024 (latest data available).
January 14, 2026 at 11:12 PM
Lower Mortgage has acquired another mortgage lender, this time scooping up Nashville-based Acopia Home Loans.
The deal will apparently add more than $425 million in annual loan production via 14 branch locations and 36 loan originators.
Lower funded roughly $5B in 2024 (latest data available).
The deal will apparently add more than $425 million in annual loan production via 14 branch locations and 36 loan originators.
Lower funded roughly $5B in 2024 (latest data available).
Mortgage lender Newrez is rolling out a new loan program that permits the use of unsold crypto for approvals.
Borrowers can HODL their Bitcoin while getting approved for a home loan.
Most lenders require you to liquidate if you want to use the value of the assets toward qualification.
Borrowers can HODL their Bitcoin while getting approved for a home loan.
Most lenders require you to liquidate if you want to use the value of the assets toward qualification.
January 13, 2026 at 7:21 PM
Mortgage lender Newrez is rolling out a new loan program that permits the use of unsold crypto for approvals.
Borrowers can HODL their Bitcoin while getting approved for a home loan.
Most lenders require you to liquidate if you want to use the value of the assets toward qualification.
Borrowers can HODL their Bitcoin while getting approved for a home loan.
Most lenders require you to liquidate if you want to use the value of the assets toward qualification.
The main reason mortgage rates are 1.25% lower (6% vs. 7.25%) than they were a year ago isn't because of lower bond yields.
It's mostly due to the spread, which is finally "normal" at ~180 bps above the 10-year yield, after several years of being bloated and widening to around 325 bps at one point.
It's mostly due to the spread, which is finally "normal" at ~180 bps above the 10-year yield, after several years of being bloated and widening to around 325 bps at one point.
January 12, 2026 at 7:39 PM
The main reason mortgage rates are 1.25% lower (6% vs. 7.25%) than they were a year ago isn't because of lower bond yields.
It's mostly due to the spread, which is finally "normal" at ~180 bps above the 10-year yield, after several years of being bloated and widening to around 325 bps at one point.
It's mostly due to the spread, which is finally "normal" at ~180 bps above the 10-year yield, after several years of being bloated and widening to around 325 bps at one point.
Some thoughts on the proposed ban of single-family home buying by institutional investors.
youtube.com/shorts/AA34o...
youtube.com/shorts/AA34o...
President Trump to ban institutional home purchases. #realestate #housingmarket #homebuyers
YouTube video by The Truth About Mortgage
youtube.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:02 AM
Some thoughts on the proposed ban of single-family home buying by institutional investors.
youtube.com/shorts/AA34o...
youtube.com/shorts/AA34o...
Turns out the first-time home buyer age surging to 40 years old in 2025 is a load of crap.
Not shocking given NAR relied on a mail survey.
Every other dataset has it closer to 30 and even falling last year. Don't believe the hype.
Not shocking given NAR relied on a mail survey.
Every other dataset has it closer to 30 and even falling last year. Don't believe the hype.
January 5, 2026 at 9:14 PM
Turns out the first-time home buyer age surging to 40 years old in 2025 is a load of crap.
Not shocking given NAR relied on a mail survey.
Every other dataset has it closer to 30 and even falling last year. Don't believe the hype.
Not shocking given NAR relied on a mail survey.
Every other dataset has it closer to 30 and even falling last year. Don't believe the hype.
The housing market today...
Average LTV: 44.3%
Average mortgage rate: 4.4%
Average credit score: 741
ARM share: 4.0%
Looks pretty bleak.
Average LTV: 44.3%
Average mortgage rate: 4.4%
Average credit score: 741
ARM share: 4.0%
Looks pretty bleak.
January 3, 2026 at 5:10 PM
The housing market today...
Average LTV: 44.3%
Average mortgage rate: 4.4%
Average credit score: 741
ARM share: 4.0%
Looks pretty bleak.
Average LTV: 44.3%
Average mortgage rate: 4.4%
Average credit score: 741
ARM share: 4.0%
Looks pretty bleak.
Three ways we could see 5% mortgage rates in 2026:
- Tighter spreads (more MBS appetite)
- Lower bond yields (weaker economic data)
- Another round of QE (more MBS appetite)
- Tighter spreads (more MBS appetite)
- Lower bond yields (weaker economic data)
- Another round of QE (more MBS appetite)
December 26, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Three ways we could see 5% mortgage rates in 2026:
- Tighter spreads (more MBS appetite)
- Lower bond yields (weaker economic data)
- Another round of QE (more MBS appetite)
- Tighter spreads (more MBS appetite)
- Lower bond yields (weaker economic data)
- Another round of QE (more MBS appetite)
Fannie Mae's final 30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast of the year.
Q1 2026: 6.2%
Q2 2026: 6.1%
Q3 2026: 6.0%
Q4 2026: 5.9%
Full year 2024: 6.7%
Full year 2025: 6.6%
Full year 2026: 6.0%
Full year 2027: 5.9%
Will be interesting to see if home buyers respond next year.
Q1 2026: 6.2%
Q2 2026: 6.1%
Q3 2026: 6.0%
Q4 2026: 5.9%
Full year 2024: 6.7%
Full year 2025: 6.6%
Full year 2026: 6.0%
Full year 2027: 5.9%
Will be interesting to see if home buyers respond next year.
December 23, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Fannie Mae's final 30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast of the year.
Q1 2026: 6.2%
Q2 2026: 6.1%
Q3 2026: 6.0%
Q4 2026: 5.9%
Full year 2024: 6.7%
Full year 2025: 6.6%
Full year 2026: 6.0%
Full year 2027: 5.9%
Will be interesting to see if home buyers respond next year.
Q1 2026: 6.2%
Q2 2026: 6.1%
Q3 2026: 6.0%
Q4 2026: 5.9%
Full year 2024: 6.7%
Full year 2025: 6.6%
Full year 2026: 6.0%
Full year 2027: 5.9%
Will be interesting to see if home buyers respond next year.