Lior Sheffer
@liorsheffer.bsky.social
Political scientist at the Tel Aviv University. I study elite political behaviour.
https://sites.google.com/site/liorsheffer/
https://sites.google.com/site/liorsheffer/
We only looked at overall L-R ideology here, but other work that looks at the conservative bias across policy issues (@dbroockman.bsky.social and @cskovron.bsky.social in APSR, @jbpilet.bsky.social et al. in APSR, @awhf.bsky.social et al. in APSR) has documented it on both dimensions.
February 3, 2026 at 12:58 PM
We only looked at overall L-R ideology here, but other work that looks at the conservative bias across policy issues (@dbroockman.bsky.social and @cskovron.bsky.social in APSR, @jbpilet.bsky.social et al. in APSR, @awhf.bsky.social et al. in APSR) has documented it on both dimensions.
Our results motivate a reexamination of pervasive arguments and evidence on politicians' inability to correctly gauge public opinion, and point towards domain-general cognitive biases as a central source of elite misperception. Lots more in the paper:
cup.org/4kltoyE
cup.org/4kltoyE
Beyond the mean: how thinking about the distribution of public opinions reduces politicians’ perceptual errors | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Beyond the mean: how thinking about the distribution of public opinions reduces politicians’ perceptual errors
cup.org
February 3, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Our results motivate a reexamination of pervasive arguments and evidence on politicians' inability to correctly gauge public opinion, and point towards domain-general cognitive biases as a central source of elite misperception. Lots more in the paper:
cup.org/4kltoyE
cup.org/4kltoyE
Politicians nevertheless exhibit strong psychological projection: they begin building out distributions by anchoring them close to their own attitudes, a pattern that counterbalances conservative over-estimation among left-wing politicians but reinforces it among right-wing politicians. /3
February 3, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Politicians nevertheless exhibit strong psychological projection: they begin building out distributions by anchoring them close to their own attitudes, a pattern that counterbalances conservative over-estimation among left-wing politicians but reinforces it among right-wing politicians. /3
We ask 800 Canadian politicians to draw the full distribution of their constituents' preferences. We first replicate the well-documented conservative bias in public opinion perception using point estimates, and then show that its size is cut by a full half when politicians draw distributions /2
February 3, 2026 at 12:04 PM
We ask 800 Canadian politicians to draw the full distribution of their constituents' preferences. We first replicate the well-documented conservative bias in public opinion perception using point estimates, and then show that its size is cut by a full half when politicians draw distributions /2
New and open access, in @psrm.bsky.social: What happens when we make politicians draw distributions? Nic Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social and I explore whether the large errors politicians make about public opinion are artificially inflated by how researchers ask them to estimate it /1
cup.org/4kltoyE
cup.org/4kltoyE
February 3, 2026 at 12:04 PM
New and open access, in @psrm.bsky.social: What happens when we make politicians draw distributions? Nic Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social and I explore whether the large errors politicians make about public opinion are artificially inflated by how researchers ask them to estimate it /1
cup.org/4kltoyE
cup.org/4kltoyE
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
I should also have mentioned this paper by @noamgidron.bsky.social et al. osf.io/preprints/so...
January 3, 2026 at 5:50 PM
I should also have mentioned this paper by @noamgidron.bsky.social et al. osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
Who protests against democratic backsliding? A new working paper with Margalit, Sheffer and Yakir examines this issue and finds that people’s conceptions of what democracy means play a crucial role in predicting whether they engage in active opposition to backsliding efforts. osf.io/preprints/so...
December 11, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Who protests against democratic backsliding? A new working paper with Margalit, Sheffer and Yakir examines this issue and finds that people’s conceptions of what democracy means play a crucial role in predicting whether they engage in active opposition to backsliding efforts. osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
🆕 What kind of personalities are drawn to politics? 🗳️
This cross-national study across 🇨🇦🇩🇰🇮🇱🇳🇱🇨🇭 explores #Representation and how honesty-humility and other HEXACO personality traits shape people’s ambition to run for office 🧵1/2
buff.ly/xk4qMa3
This cross-national study across 🇨🇦🇩🇰🇮🇱🇳🇱🇨🇭 explores #Representation and how honesty-humility and other HEXACO personality traits shape people’s ambition to run for office 🧵1/2
buff.ly/xk4qMa3
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment
www.cambridge.org
November 5, 2025 at 12:02 PM
🆕 What kind of personalities are drawn to politics? 🗳️
This cross-national study across 🇨🇦🇩🇰🇮🇱🇳🇱🇨🇭 explores #Representation and how honesty-humility and other HEXACO personality traits shape people’s ambition to run for office 🧵1/2
buff.ly/xk4qMa3
This cross-national study across 🇨🇦🇩🇰🇮🇱🇳🇱🇨🇭 explores #Representation and how honesty-humility and other HEXACO personality traits shape people’s ambition to run for office 🧵1/2
buff.ly/xk4qMa3
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social -
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment - https://cup.org/4ncO4c0
- Marc van de Wardt, P.Bundi, P.J.Loewen, @annerasmussen.bsky.social, @liorsheffer.bsky.social & F.Varone
#FirstView
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment - https://cup.org/4ncO4c0
- Marc van de Wardt, P.Bundi, P.J.Loewen, @annerasmussen.bsky.social, @liorsheffer.bsky.social & F.Varone
#FirstView
October 13, 2025 at 2:20 PM
#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social -
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment - https://cup.org/4ncO4c0
- Marc van de Wardt, P.Bundi, P.J.Loewen, @annerasmussen.bsky.social, @liorsheffer.bsky.social & F.Varone
#FirstView
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment - https://cup.org/4ncO4c0
- Marc van de Wardt, P.Bundi, P.J.Loewen, @annerasmussen.bsky.social, @liorsheffer.bsky.social & F.Varone
#FirstView
Over a year ago (!) Roee Levy and I wrote this op-ed (that you can auto-translate) on Israel's responsibility for the horrifying famine in Gaza. The starvation persists. The immoral war in Gaza must end. If you can, protest with us today: 7pm, Habima Square, Tel Aviv
www.ynet.co.il/news/article...
www.ynet.co.il/news/article...
להסתכל במראה: הרעב בעזה הוא כתם מוסרי עלינו
כמעט 700 אלף עזתים סובלים ממחסור קטסטרופלי במזון. ההערכות הן שתושבים בצפון עזה צורכים בממוצע רק 245 קלוריות ביום, ולפי ארגון המזון העולמי ארבעה מכל חמישה אנשים בעולם שסובלים היום מרעב חמור נמצאים בעזה...
www.ynet.co.il
July 24, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Over a year ago (!) Roee Levy and I wrote this op-ed (that you can auto-translate) on Israel's responsibility for the horrifying famine in Gaza. The starvation persists. The immoral war in Gaza must end. If you can, protest with us today: 7pm, Habima Square, Tel Aviv
www.ynet.co.il/news/article...
www.ynet.co.il/news/article...
Paper is available via open access: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
What personality traits do citizens want politicians to have? Observational and experimental evidence of citizens' preferences in three countries
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
June 5, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Paper is available via open access: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
Our findings shed light on the personality selection funnel into higher-office politics, and help explain resulting leader behaviour patterns. Proud to be part of the team working on this paper, led by Thomas Bergeron, and including Eran Amsalem, Jeroen Joly, and Peter Loewen.
June 5, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Our findings shed light on the personality selection funnel into higher-office politics, and help explain resulting leader behaviour patterns. Proud to be part of the team working on this paper, led by Thomas Bergeron, and including Eran Amsalem, Jeroen Joly, and Peter Loewen.
High levels of openness to experience, which characterize most politicians exhibit, are only weakly appealing, especially among right-leaning voters. In a conjoint experiment, we find that these effects on leader preference outweigh factors such as age, education, gender, and experience. /3
June 5, 2025 at 10:56 AM
High levels of openness to experience, which characterize most politicians exhibit, are only weakly appealing, especially among right-leaning voters. In a conjoint experiment, we find that these effects on leader preference outweigh factors such as age, education, gender, and experience. /3
We find remarkable consistency across countries and ideologies when citizens choose their party leaders: they are extremely averse to displays of neuroticism, and strongly reward candidates who are conscientious, agreeable, and to a lesser degree extrovert /2
June 5, 2025 at 10:56 AM
We find remarkable consistency across countries and ideologies when citizens choose their party leaders: they are extremely averse to displays of neuroticism, and strongly reward candidates who are conscientious, agreeable, and to a lesser degree extrovert /2
Now in @ispp-pops.bsky.social: what type of personality do citizens want their leaders to have? In a series of studies conducted in Belgium, Canada, and Israel, we present citizens with profiles of potential leaders with different personality configurations drawn using the Big Five traits /1
June 5, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Now in @ispp-pops.bsky.social: what type of personality do citizens want their leaders to have? In a series of studies conducted in Belgium, Canada, and Israel, we present citizens with profiles of potential leaders with different personality configurations drawn using the Big Five traits /1
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
From February 2025 -
Do Political Leaders Understand Public Opinion Better than Backbenchers? - cup.org/3CNR4dt
- Stefaan Walgrave, Julie Sevenans, Frédéric Varone,
@liorsheffer.bsky.social & @breunig.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Do Political Leaders Understand Public Opinion Better than Backbenchers? - cup.org/3CNR4dt
- Stefaan Walgrave, Julie Sevenans, Frédéric Varone,
@liorsheffer.bsky.social & @breunig.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
April 25, 2025 at 11:45 AM
From February 2025 -
Do Political Leaders Understand Public Opinion Better than Backbenchers? - cup.org/3CNR4dt
- Stefaan Walgrave, Julie Sevenans, Frédéric Varone,
@liorsheffer.bsky.social & @breunig.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Do Political Leaders Understand Public Opinion Better than Backbenchers? - cup.org/3CNR4dt
- Stefaan Walgrave, Julie Sevenans, Frédéric Varone,
@liorsheffer.bsky.social & @breunig.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
Really enjoyed this conversation with @jerusalem.bsky.social about our new paper on politicians' theories of voting behaviour. Such a thrill to be a guest on one of my favourite podcasts! www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/arc...
Politicians Think Voters Are Dumb. Are They Right?
A striking new study reveals that elected officials have a far more pessimistic view of voter behavior than do citizens themselves.
www.theatlantic.com
March 25, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Really enjoyed this conversation with @jerusalem.bsky.social about our new paper on politicians' theories of voting behaviour. Such a thrill to be a guest on one of my favourite podcasts! www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/arc...
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
The most important paper on democratic backsliding I've read this year
🚨Why do masses support democratic backsliding?🚨
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
March 25, 2025 at 12:16 AM
The most important paper on democratic backsliding I've read this year
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
🚨Why do masses support democratic backsliding?🚨
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
March 24, 2025 at 5:28 PM
🚨Why do masses support democratic backsliding?🚨
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
Thanks Lucy! We love the Fastenrath and Marx paper, and figuring out which politicians even benchmark themselves against opinion polling is a priority for us, along with better understanding the inherent tension politicians face between responding to public opinion and working to change it.
February 17, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Thanks Lucy! We love the Fastenrath and Marx paper, and figuring out which politicians even benchmark themselves against opinion polling is a priority for us, along with better understanding the inherent tension politicians face between responding to public opinion and working to change it.
Our findings undermine the idea that leaders possess some unique capacity to 'get' the public. And because they have the most power to shape agendas and policies, their perceptual errors are especially concerning for the kind of representation citizens get in democratic systems. More in the paper!
February 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Our findings undermine the idea that leaders possess some unique capacity to 'get' the public. And because they have the most power to shape agendas and policies, their perceptual errors are especially concerning for the kind of representation citizens get in democratic systems. More in the paper!
This result holds when we ask politicians to think about the general public and their own party voters; under different definitions of seniority; and even when we specifically look at those politicians who are (incorrectly) singled out by colleagues for being good at understanding public opinion. /3
February 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
This result holds when we ask politicians to think about the general public and their own party voters; under different definitions of seniority; and even when we specifically look at those politicians who are (incorrectly) singled out by colleagues for being good at understanding public opinion. /3
We find that while politicians themselves strongly believe that top politicians - such as party leaders and cabinet ministers - excel at understanding what people want, in reality these senior figures - who were included in our sample of >800 politicians - are just as inaccurate as the rest! /2
February 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
We find that while politicians themselves strongly believe that top politicians - such as party leaders and cabinet ministers - excel at understanding what people want, in reality these senior figures - who were included in our sample of >800 politicians - are just as inaccurate as the rest! /2
Now in @bjpols.bsky.social: Are leaders really better at reading public opinion? In a large-scale study led by Stefaan Walgrave and Julie Sevenans, we test the assumption that politicians in leadership positions have more accurate knowledge of public opinion than others. /1
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
February 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Now in @bjpols.bsky.social: Are leaders really better at reading public opinion? In a large-scale study led by Stefaan Walgrave and Julie Sevenans, we test the assumption that politicians in leadership positions have more accurate knowledge of public opinion than others. /1
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Reposted by Lior Sheffer
This paper joins a couple of others demonstrating that politicians have a conservative bias in their expectations of public opinion. This work is hugely illuminative of elite attitudes and so is of vital interest to activists pursuing progressive change
Now in APSR: What do politicians think about their voters? Fielding face-to-face surveys to 982 sitting politicians in 11 countries, and accompanying surveys of 12,000 citizens, we find that politicians have remarkably consistent - and cynical - theories of voters: /1
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
November 4, 2024 at 3:46 PM
This paper joins a couple of others demonstrating that politicians have a conservative bias in their expectations of public opinion. This work is hugely illuminative of elite attitudes and so is of vital interest to activists pursuing progressive change