Letters2AJ
@letters2aj.bsky.social
San Diego Padres analysis.
Authors of the substack Letters to A.J.
letters2aj.substack.com
Budgets get better when you win.
Authors of the substack Letters to A.J.
letters2aj.substack.com
Budgets get better when you win.
Pinned
Letters2AJ
@letters2aj.bsky.social
· Sep 5
Margin Call Part 2
Lineup Optimization
letters2aj.substack.com
New Article: Margin Call Part 2 - Lineup Optimization
-A shift in the win formula
-How impactful is lineup optimization?
-Making the pieces fit
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-A shift in the win formula
-How impactful is lineup optimization?
-Making the pieces fit
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
New article: Expected Value
-Baseball’s new win conditions
-IKF and baseball orthodoxy
-The Default State
letters2aj.substack.com/p/expected-v...
-Baseball’s new win conditions
-IKF and baseball orthodoxy
-The Default State
letters2aj.substack.com/p/expected-v...
Expected Value
And Risk Aversion
letters2aj.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:17 PM
New article: Expected Value
-Baseball’s new win conditions
-IKF and baseball orthodoxy
-The Default State
letters2aj.substack.com/p/expected-v...
-Baseball’s new win conditions
-IKF and baseball orthodoxy
-The Default State
letters2aj.substack.com/p/expected-v...
New Article: The Upper Bound
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-upper-...
-The Padres have not fielded the best version of themselves. Until now.
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-upper-...
-The Padres have not fielded the best version of themselves. Until now.
The Upper Bound
How Good Is the Best Version of the Padres?
letters2aj.substack.com
September 30, 2025 at 4:17 PM
New Article: The Upper Bound
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-upper-...
-The Padres have not fielded the best version of themselves. Until now.
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-upper-...
-The Padres have not fielded the best version of themselves. Until now.
Margin Call Part 4
Take The Right Club Out Of The Bag
letters2aj.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 6:22 PM
New Article: Margin Call Part 3 - Playing To The Park
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-Signs the Padres are emphasizing a more sophisticated pitch mix strategy
-What they can control in a worst case scenario
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-Signs the Padres are emphasizing a more sophisticated pitch mix strategy
-What they can control in a worst case scenario
Margin Call Part 3
Pitching to the Park
letters2aj.substack.com
September 9, 2025 at 1:25 AM
New Article: Margin Call Part 3 - Playing To The Park
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-Signs the Padres are emphasizing a more sophisticated pitch mix strategy
-What they can control in a worst case scenario
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-Signs the Padres are emphasizing a more sophisticated pitch mix strategy
-What they can control in a worst case scenario
New Article: Margin Call Part 2 - Lineup Optimization
-A shift in the win formula
-How impactful is lineup optimization?
-Making the pieces fit
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-A shift in the win formula
-How impactful is lineup optimization?
-Making the pieces fit
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
Margin Call Part 2
Lineup Optimization
letters2aj.substack.com
September 5, 2025 at 3:59 PM
New Article: Margin Call Part 2 - Lineup Optimization
-A shift in the win formula
-How impactful is lineup optimization?
-Making the pieces fit
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-A shift in the win formula
-How impactful is lineup optimization?
-Making the pieces fit
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
Reposted by Letters2AJ
This is great work - as always - but i humbly propose my guy Archie could've saved some math time by looking at this scientific chart i posted in our Padres Hot Tub discord a few months ago.
September 2, 2025 at 9:32 PM
This is great work - as always - but i humbly propose my guy Archie could've saved some math time by looking at this scientific chart i posted in our Padres Hot Tub discord a few months ago.
Reposted by Letters2AJ
Tuesday Pod!
-Padres are going through some things. Hit the gas or throttle back?
-SDFC steals the show from Son / LAFC; Can Dreyer win MVP?
Weekend Recaps are always 🔓. Today’s @section1904.com:
-Padres are going through some things. Hit the gas or throttle back?
-SDFC steals the show from Son / LAFC; Can Dreyer win MVP?
Weekend Recaps are always 🔓. Today’s @section1904.com:
Weekend Recap: SDFC shows up, Padres don't
It was a good weekend for one of San Diego's teams, but another one faces an existential crisis.
section1904.com
September 2, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Tuesday Pod!
-Padres are going through some things. Hit the gas or throttle back?
-SDFC steals the show from Son / LAFC; Can Dreyer win MVP?
Weekend Recaps are always 🔓. Today’s @section1904.com:
-Padres are going through some things. Hit the gas or throttle back?
-SDFC steals the show from Son / LAFC; Can Dreyer win MVP?
Weekend Recaps are always 🔓. Today’s @section1904.com:
New Article: Margin Call Part 1 - Small Ball
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-The best time to purge a small win-probability drag is the start of a long season. The next best time is now.
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-The best time to purge a small win-probability drag is the start of a long season. The next best time is now.
Margin Call Part 1
Small Ball
letters2aj.substack.com
September 2, 2025 at 9:10 PM
New Article: Margin Call Part 1 - Small Ball
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-The best time to purge a small win-probability drag is the start of a long season. The next best time is now.
letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...
-The best time to purge a small win-probability drag is the start of a long season. The next best time is now.
New Article: Home Field Advantage
letters2aj.substack.com/p/home-field...
-Luis Arraez and lineup optimization
-Now it's a sprint
-What home field advantage means
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/home-field...
-Luis Arraez and lineup optimization
-Now it's a sprint
-What home field advantage means
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
Home Field Advantage
Strategic Decision Making
letters2aj.substack.com
August 25, 2025 at 7:59 PM
New Article: Home Field Advantage
letters2aj.substack.com/p/home-field...
-Luis Arraez and lineup optimization
-Now it's a sprint
-What home field advantage means
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/home-field...
-Luis Arraez and lineup optimization
-Now it's a sprint
-What home field advantage means
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
New Article: Pressing Questions
letters2aj.substack.com/p/pressing-q...
-Is the lineup optimized?
-Is the use of an opener a one-off?
-How close was the Dodgers series?
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/pressing-q...
-Is the lineup optimized?
-Is the use of an opener a one-off?
-How close was the Dodgers series?
#Padres
Pressing Questions
And Pressing Concerns
letters2aj.substack.com
August 18, 2025 at 5:46 PM
New Article: Pressing Questions
letters2aj.substack.com/p/pressing-q...
-Is the lineup optimized?
-Is the use of an opener a one-off?
-How close was the Dodgers series?
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/pressing-q...
-Is the lineup optimized?
-Is the use of an opener a one-off?
-How close was the Dodgers series?
#Padres
New Article: The Formula
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-formula
-How the pieces fit
-New strategies, and old
-Close-quarters combat
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-formula
-How the pieces fit
-New strategies, and old
-Close-quarters combat
#Padres
The Formula
Watching The Pieces Fit
letters2aj.substack.com
August 11, 2025 at 4:32 PM
New Article: The Formula
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-formula
-How the pieces fit
-New strategies, and old
-Close-quarters combat
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-formula
-How the pieces fit
-New strategies, and old
-Close-quarters combat
#Padres
New Article: First Impressions
letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-impr...
-New arms, new lineup, new strategies
-Cease, fire
-Farewell Strandy, gone but not forgotten
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-impr...
-New arms, new lineup, new strategies
-Cease, fire
-Farewell Strandy, gone but not forgotten
#Padres
https://letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-impres…
August 4, 2025 at 6:13 PM
New Article: First Impressions
letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-impr...
-New arms, new lineup, new strategies
-Cease, fire
-Farewell Strandy, gone but not forgotten
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-impr...
-New arms, new lineup, new strategies
-Cease, fire
-Farewell Strandy, gone but not forgotten
#Padres
Reposted by Letters2AJ
Always love when I get to spend an hour-plus talking #Padres with @letters2aj.bsky.social
August 1, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Always love when I get to spend an hour-plus talking #Padres with @letters2aj.bsky.social
New Article: All In
-The reinforcements that arrived after the trade deadline finally detonated
-The Trade That Didn't Happen
-The Way Home
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/all-in
-The reinforcements that arrived after the trade deadline finally detonated
-The Trade That Didn't Happen
-The Way Home
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/all-in
All In
Now It's A Dogfight
letters2aj.substack.com
August 1, 2025 at 8:12 PM
New Article: All In
-The reinforcements that arrived after the trade deadline finally detonated
-The Trade That Didn't Happen
-The Way Home
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/all-in
-The reinforcements that arrived after the trade deadline finally detonated
-The Trade That Didn't Happen
-The Way Home
#ForTheFaithful #Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/all-in
New Article: The Other TTO
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-other-tto
-What to make of Dylan Cease's dreadful ERA?
-Compounding effects of an extreme pitching style
-Simplifying the guessing game
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-other-tto
-What to make of Dylan Cease's dreadful ERA?
-Compounding effects of an extreme pitching style
-Simplifying the guessing game
The Other TTO
Failure Modes Of The One-Two Punch
letters2aj.substack.com
July 18, 2025 at 2:23 PM
New Article: The Other TTO
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-other-tto
-What to make of Dylan Cease's dreadful ERA?
-Compounding effects of an extreme pitching style
-Simplifying the guessing game
letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-other-tto
-What to make of Dylan Cease's dreadful ERA?
-Compounding effects of an extreme pitching style
-Simplifying the guessing game
New Article: Adjustments
letters2aj.substack.com/p/adjustment...
-An interesting trend in opposing starting pitcher stuff+
-An approach change from Luis Arraez?
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/adjustment...
-An interesting trend in opposing starting pitcher stuff+
-An approach change from Luis Arraez?
#Padres
Adjustments
Full Tilt
letters2aj.substack.com
July 9, 2025 at 5:49 PM
New Article: Adjustments
letters2aj.substack.com/p/adjustment...
-An interesting trend in opposing starting pitcher stuff+
-An approach change from Luis Arraez?
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/adjustment...
-An interesting trend in opposing starting pitcher stuff+
-An approach change from Luis Arraez?
#Padres
New Article: Degree Of Difficulty
letters2aj.substack.com/p/degree-of-...
-Analyzing the Padres record against over-and-under .500 teams
-Roster analysis as the trade deadline looms
-Chipping away at understanding the unprecedented slumps from the team's top hitters
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/degree-of-...
-Analyzing the Padres record against over-and-under .500 teams
-Roster analysis as the trade deadline looms
-Chipping away at understanding the unprecedented slumps from the team's top hitters
#Padres
Degree Of Difficulty
Teams Are Not Monolithic
letters2aj.substack.com
July 7, 2025 at 3:05 PM
New Article: Degree Of Difficulty
letters2aj.substack.com/p/degree-of-...
-Analyzing the Padres record against over-and-under .500 teams
-Roster analysis as the trade deadline looms
-Chipping away at understanding the unprecedented slumps from the team's top hitters
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/degree-of-...
-Analyzing the Padres record against over-and-under .500 teams
-Roster analysis as the trade deadline looms
-Chipping away at understanding the unprecedented slumps from the team's top hitters
#Padres
Reposted by Letters2AJ
New Gwynntelligence! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...
Gwynntelligence Podcast – Episode 157 – Buy or Die
Podcast Episode · Gwynntelligence Podcast · 07/03/2025 · 1 sec
podcasts.apple.com
July 4, 2025 at 5:16 PM
New Gwynntelligence! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...
New Article: Market Analysis Part 1
letters2aj.substack.com/p/market-ana...
-A look at the trade market dynamics surrounding the Padres top need
-A surprisingly optimistic forecast of a popular acquisition target
-AJ Preller and the high-ceiling siren song
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/market-ana...
-A look at the trade market dynamics surrounding the Padres top need
-A surprisingly optimistic forecast of a popular acquisition target
-AJ Preller and the high-ceiling siren song
#Padres
Market Analysis
Part 1
letters2aj.substack.com
June 27, 2025 at 6:17 PM
New Article: Market Analysis Part 1
letters2aj.substack.com/p/market-ana...
-A look at the trade market dynamics surrounding the Padres top need
-A surprisingly optimistic forecast of a popular acquisition target
-AJ Preller and the high-ceiling siren song
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/market-ana...
-A look at the trade market dynamics surrounding the Padres top need
-A surprisingly optimistic forecast of a popular acquisition target
-AJ Preller and the high-ceiling siren song
#Padres
New Article: Halfway Home
letters2aj.substack.com/p/halfway-home
-Forecasting the most efficient path to improvement
-A look at Petco Park hitting, and the strategy it implies
letters2aj.substack.com/p/halfway-home
-Forecasting the most efficient path to improvement
-A look at Petco Park hitting, and the strategy it implies
Halfway Home
Beyond Surviving
letters2aj.substack.com
June 26, 2025 at 2:39 PM
New Article: Halfway Home
letters2aj.substack.com/p/halfway-home
-Forecasting the most efficient path to improvement
-A look at Petco Park hitting, and the strategy it implies
letters2aj.substack.com/p/halfway-home
-Forecasting the most efficient path to improvement
-A look at Petco Park hitting, and the strategy it implies
Reposted by Letters2AJ
I think Niebla is the best pitching coach in game, or second to Caleb Cotham, definitely on Rushmore of the moment
June 19, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I think Niebla is the best pitching coach in game, or second to Caleb Cotham, definitely on Rushmore of the moment
Reposted by Letters2AJ
Luis slowly closes the door behind him and goes to sit down. Mike looks nauseous. Boyz II Men sing End of the Road softly from a Bluetooth speaker that looks like a baseball.
“Cuz…”
“Cuz…”
June 15, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Luis slowly closes the door behind him and goes to sit down. Mike looks nauseous. Boyz II Men sing End of the Road softly from a Bluetooth speaker that looks like a baseball.
“Cuz…”
“Cuz…”
New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0, Unicorn Edition
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-A deep look beyond the box score into what has been Luis Arraez' worst stretch as a hitter
-The downstream costs of poor offense
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-A deep look beyond the box score into what has been Luis Arraez' worst stretch as a hitter
-The downstream costs of poor offense
Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0
Unicorn Edition
letters2aj.substack.com
June 9, 2025 at 2:39 PM
New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0, Unicorn Edition
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-A deep look beyond the box score into what has been Luis Arraez' worst stretch as a hitter
-The downstream costs of poor offense
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-A deep look beyond the box score into what has been Luis Arraez' worst stretch as a hitter
-The downstream costs of poor offense
New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 2.0
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-Examining the worst month of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career
-Staring into the void in left field
-Future value vs present value
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-Examining the worst month of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career
-Staring into the void in left field
-Future value vs present value
#Padres
Anatomy Of A Slump
2.0
letters2aj.substack.com
June 2, 2025 at 3:26 PM
New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 2.0
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-Examining the worst month of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career
-Staring into the void in left field
-Future value vs present value
#Padres
letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
-Examining the worst month of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career
-Staring into the void in left field
-Future value vs present value
#Padres
Reposted by Letters2AJ
How did the #Padres fix Gavin Sheets?
How did the #Padres fix Gavin Sheets?
Searching for something that can explain the breakout hitting of #Padres DH Gavin Sheets
dlvr.it
May 27, 2025 at 8:31 PM
How did the #Padres fix Gavin Sheets?