LeRaffl
banner
leraffl.bsky.social
LeRaffl
@leraffl.bsky.social
Math dude, doing math with BEV market shares

https://ts.la/raphael59773
Pinned
Introducing Thresholds Tab
It's essentially several of the tables posted as an image, just nicer. Also there's a custom column so you can make your own ranking for a specific percentage.
leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
Reposted by LeRaffl
Electric vehicles will end oil wars – if we let them
Electric vehicles will end oil wars – if we let them
With the news of the US’ actions in Venezuela this morning, we are reminded again of how reducing oil demand can lead to less conflict – and electric vehicles are our best bet for doing so. more…
electrek.co
January 3, 2026 at 11:03 PM
Market split in South Korea
January 3, 2026 at 2:26 PM
South Korea has a heavily fluctuating trajectory, even though they're already at 15-20% BEV.
From what I can tell, the reason seems simple: incentive schemes are frequently redesigned rather than phased out, creating stop-and-go adoption instead of a smooth transition.
January 3, 2026 at 2:25 PM
PHEV are not a thing in South Korea
January 3, 2026 at 2:22 PM
🇰🇷 South Korea - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
15.2% BEV
0.6% PHEV
84.2% ICE (of which 33.7%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
12.5% BEV
0.8% PHEV
86.6% ICE (of which 33.5%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
January 3, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Italy is still heavy on HEV at the moment.
January 2, 2026 at 7:15 PM
Italy has significantly accelerated BEV adoption in the last 2 months. Incentives help kicking off things. They just need to stay long enough to make things permanent. Abolishing them below 20% adoption or after only a few months means only a pull-forward effect. People need a bit of time to learn.
January 2, 2026 at 7:14 PM
Last months acceleration in Italy's BEV adoption came almost purely from ICE. No changes in PHEV trajectory.
🇮🇹 Italy - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
11.0% BEV
9.3% PHEV
79.7% ICE (of which 42.8%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
6.2% BEV
6.5% PHEV
87.4% ICE (of which 44.4%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
January 2, 2026 at 7:11 PM
🇮🇹 Italy - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
11.0% BEV
9.3% PHEV
79.7% ICE (of which 42.8%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
6.2% BEV
6.5% PHEV
87.4% ICE (of which 44.4%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
January 2, 2026 at 7:09 PM
PHEV still have room for growth in Ireland. This is due to ICE falling mich faster than BEV is rising. I think you can read this as people still being somewhere wary of BEV.
January 2, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Ireland is becoming more electrified by the month.
January 2, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Ireland seems to have reached peak slowness of transition time. I think they should accelerate in 2026.
January 2, 2026 at 12:44 PM
🇮🇪 Ireland - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
62.0% BEV
7.2% PHEV
30.8% ICE (of which 11.6%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
18.9% BEV
15.2% PHEV
66.0% ICE (of which 23.5%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
January 2, 2026 at 12:42 PM
Reposted by LeRaffl
BYD's November 2025 was their biggest BEV month ever recorded in human history..

if you combine BYD's BEV sales of November and October (2025) you're talking about more electric vehicles than the entire fleet of Spain..

#alwaysbecharging chart by #alojoh nitter.net/alojoh/statu...
January 2, 2026 at 11:47 AM
Reposted by LeRaffl
After Trial, DHL Commits to the Tesla Semi, Orders "More Than Just a Handful of Trucks"
After Trial, DHL Commits to the Tesla Semi, Orders "More Than Just a Handful of Trucks"
DHL confirms plans to integrate a fleet of Tesla Semis in 2026, citing a successful trial with 1.72 kWh/mile efficiency and game-changing operational potential.… Read More
www.notateslaapp.com
January 1, 2026 at 9:05 PM
Market in Portugal is becoming more and more electric, and quite fast as well.
Neither PHEV, nor HEV have started their fall yet, which is in favour of future BEV, as these people will likely already want a BEV next.
January 1, 2026 at 8:53 PM
About 5%p more is the current wiggle room PHEV can expect for growth in Portugal.
January 1, 2026 at 8:49 PM
🇵🇹 Portugal - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
26.8% BEV
14.1% PHEV
59.2% ICE (of which 18.2%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
23.2% BEV
15.2% PHEV
61.6% ICE (of which 22.3%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
January 1, 2026 at 8:48 PM
Heavy Duty Vehicles in the Netherlands are still almost all Diesel, but this will now change rapidly, as BEV show massive growth. Almost unbelievable growth even.
January 1, 2026 at 7:07 PM
BEV adoption among Heavy Duty Vehicles in the Netherlands has accelerated SIGNIFICANTLY. They're setting the bar quite high for themselves. This is good news.
January 1, 2026 at 7:05 PM
🇳🇱 Netherlands (HDV) - November 25 - BEV Trajectory
14.3% BEV
0.1% PHEV
85.6% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
7.0% BEV
0.1% PHEV
92.9% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
January 1, 2026 at 6:59 PM
New Feature in the Gallery:
Every Threshold already reached is now coloured green 🟢
Every 80% that is only reached after Jan 2035 is coloured red 🔴

Now go play around with the Custom column!

(colouring as per the model, not as a trailing 12 months or anything)
January 1, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Heavy Duty Vehicle Market is dominated by Diesel in Finland. Like ... completely dominated.
And no, the "OTHER" category do not consist of H2, but rather LNG and CNG. Hydrogen Trucks are not a thing.
January 1, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Heavy Duty Vehicles (Lorries) in Finland are currently still trying to find their trajectory for transitioning to BEV, but the model is converging nicely, meaning there is a transition to BEV in the works, even though it's still in the very early stages.
January 1, 2026 at 12:02 PM
🇫🇮 Finland (HDV) - November 25 - BEV Trajectory
2.0% BEV
0.0% PHEV
98.0% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
3.0% BEV
0.0% PHEV
97.0% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
January 1, 2026 at 12:01 PM