LegendOfZelna
@legendofzelna.bsky.social
#MLS playoff forecast after Round 1:
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
November 10, 2025 at 7:12 PM
#MLS playoff forecast after Round 1:
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
squad_up() > group_by()
Happy to die on this hill
Happy to die on this hill
Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
GitHub - hadley/genzplyr: dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap
dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap. Contribute to hadley/genzplyr development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:27 PM
squad_up() > group_by()
Happy to die on this hill
Happy to die on this hill
#MLS playoff forecast post Round 1, Game 2:
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
November 5, 2025 at 1:31 PM
#MLS playoff forecast post Round 1, Game 2:
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
Post Round 1, Game 1 #MLS playoff forecast:
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
October 30, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Post Round 1, Game 1 #MLS playoff forecast:
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
Eliminate idiotic streaming blackout rules
Completely fix baseball with five words.
October 26, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Eliminate idiotic streaming blackout rules
Reposted by LegendOfZelna
🧵 Thread: I recently explored a few ideas to analyze a team's press in more detail 👇
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
October 24, 2025 at 3:20 PM
🧵 Thread: I recently explored a few ideas to analyze a team's press in more detail 👇
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
Reposted by LegendOfZelna
Weekly Stat Dump: Predicted Points
In the past few weeks, we have looked at xPoints, Expected Goal Differential (xGD), and g+ Offense Diff as potential predictors of points in MLS.
Keep in mind, we've already pointed out how weak predictions using R-squared are in a parity league like MLS.
1/
In the past few weeks, we have looked at xPoints, Expected Goal Differential (xGD), and g+ Offense Diff as potential predictors of points in MLS.
Keep in mind, we've already pointed out how weak predictions using R-squared are in a parity league like MLS.
1/
October 25, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Weekly Stat Dump: Predicted Points
In the past few weeks, we have looked at xPoints, Expected Goal Differential (xGD), and g+ Offense Diff as potential predictors of points in MLS.
Keep in mind, we've already pointed out how weak predictions using R-squared are in a parity league like MLS.
1/
In the past few weeks, we have looked at xPoints, Expected Goal Differential (xGD), and g+ Offense Diff as potential predictors of points in MLS.
Keep in mind, we've already pointed out how weak predictions using R-squared are in a parity league like MLS.
1/
Post wildcard #MLS playoff forecast:
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
October 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Post wildcard #MLS playoff forecast:
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
Last power rankings and a playoff forecast update before the #MLS wildcard round kicks off
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
October 22, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Last power rankings and a playoff forecast update before the #MLS wildcard round kicks off
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
#Browns just need to give in and run a wing T for the rest of the season. Full service academy mode
- mediocre small qb
- line that can’t pass block
- bodies at rb
- one (1) receiver of any note
Would at least be interesting 🤷♂️
- mediocre small qb
- line that can’t pass block
- bodies at rb
- one (1) receiver of any note
Would at least be interesting 🤷♂️
October 19, 2025 at 5:54 PM
#Browns just need to give in and run a wing T for the rest of the season. Full service academy mode
- mediocre small qb
- line that can’t pass block
- bodies at rb
- one (1) receiver of any note
Would at least be interesting 🤷♂️
- mediocre small qb
- line that can’t pass block
- bodies at rb
- one (1) receiver of any note
Would at least be interesting 🤷♂️
Reposted by LegendOfZelna
per requested, an update to my gamestate xGD plots ahead of this weekend's MLS matches
reasons for changes from the prior version:
1. more data
2. the 8th and 9th place teams in the West have changed
1. more data
2. the 8th and 9th place teams in the West have changed
October 18, 2025 at 9:55 PM
per requested, an update to my gamestate xGD plots ahead of this weekend's MLS matches
UNCC and App grads are probably 1/4 of the people I know in CLT, both top 5 in WHEEEEE this season 😂
We have our WHEEEEE Index back!
We take turnovers lost, sacks given up, and penalty yards received, and then we weight them to come up with the team who has the most stuff happen to them!
App State and Coastal are almost tied for the lead, followed by Hawaii.
We take turnovers lost, sacks given up, and penalty yards received, and then we weight them to come up with the team who has the most stuff happen to them!
App State and Coastal are almost tied for the lead, followed by Hawaii.
October 17, 2025 at 11:32 PM
UNCC and App grads are probably 1/4 of the people I know in CLT, both top 5 in WHEEEEE this season 😂
🇺🇸MLS lookahead thread for DECISION DAY 10/18 ⚽
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿Western wildcard race (DAL, RSL, COL, SJ)
🍿🍿Eastern wildcard race (NSH, ORL, CHI, CLB)
🍿ATL-DCU: Wooden spoon on the line
🥤The rest previewed below with hastily written haikus (obviously not AI because they're so bad)
#MLS-Live
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿Western wildcard race (DAL, RSL, COL, SJ)
🍿🍿Eastern wildcard race (NSH, ORL, CHI, CLB)
🍿ATL-DCU: Wooden spoon on the line
🥤The rest previewed below with hastily written haikus (obviously not AI because they're so bad)
#MLS-Live
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🇺🇸MLS lookahead thread for DECISION DAY 10/18 ⚽
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿Western wildcard race (DAL, RSL, COL, SJ)
🍿🍿Eastern wildcard race (NSH, ORL, CHI, CLB)
🍿ATL-DCU: Wooden spoon on the line
🥤The rest previewed below with hastily written haikus (obviously not AI because they're so bad)
#MLS-Live
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿Western wildcard race (DAL, RSL, COL, SJ)
🍿🍿Eastern wildcard race (NSH, ORL, CHI, CLB)
🍿ATL-DCU: Wooden spoon on the line
🥤The rest previewed below with hastily written haikus (obviously not AI because they're so bad)
#MLS-Live
Reposted by LegendOfZelna
When ASA developed g+ five years ago we talked about the "Messi test": hypothetically, if we had MLS data for the greatest player of all time, would he score well on this all-in-one metric?
Anyway I think it works
Anyway I think it works
October 13, 2025 at 7:56 PM
When ASA developed g+ five years ago we talked about the "Messi test": hypothetically, if we had MLS data for the greatest player of all time, would he score well on this all-in-one metric?
Anyway I think it works
Anyway I think it works
I’m desensitized to these kinds of stats because it’s the browns
Any other team, in any other sport or context, losing some regular game in 21 consecutive outings would be shocking and interesting
As soon as I see “browns” though, the “embarrassingly bad stat” bar is raised significantly
Any other team, in any other sport or context, losing some regular game in 21 consecutive outings would be shocking and interesting
As soon as I see “browns” though, the “embarrassingly bad stat” bar is raised significantly
The Browns have lost 22 straight regular-season games in Pittsburgh.
The only time Cleveland has beaten the Steelers on the road since 2003 was in the playoffs in January 2021.
The only time Cleveland has beaten the Steelers on the road since 2003 was in the playoffs in January 2021.
October 12, 2025 at 8:42 PM
I’m desensitized to these kinds of stats because it’s the browns
Any other team, in any other sport or context, losing some regular game in 21 consecutive outings would be shocking and interesting
As soon as I see “browns” though, the “embarrassingly bad stat” bar is raised significantly
Any other team, in any other sport or context, losing some regular game in 21 consecutive outings would be shocking and interesting
As soon as I see “browns” though, the “embarrassingly bad stat” bar is raised significantly
Had SJ at ~12.5% chance for a wc slot heading into the weekend and, with Dallas losing, that should increase going into decision day
October 12, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Had SJ at ~12.5% chance for a wc slot heading into the weekend and, with Dallas losing, that should increase going into decision day
🍁MLS lookahead thread for Oct 11-12 ⚽🍁
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿ORL-VAN: Big seeding implications in this one
🍿🍿LAFC-ATX: LA try to stay alive in the race for 1st while ATX look to avoid the wc
🍿LAG-DAL: DAL punch their ticket with a W
🥤SEA-RSL: RSL gain vital wc ground with a win or draw
#MLS-Live
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿ORL-VAN: Big seeding implications in this one
🍿🍿LAFC-ATX: LA try to stay alive in the race for 1st while ATX look to avoid the wc
🍿LAG-DAL: DAL punch their ticket with a W
🥤SEA-RSL: RSL gain vital wc ground with a win or draw
#MLS-Live
October 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
🍁MLS lookahead thread for Oct 11-12 ⚽🍁
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿ORL-VAN: Big seeding implications in this one
🍿🍿LAFC-ATX: LA try to stay alive in the race for 1st while ATX look to avoid the wc
🍿LAG-DAL: DAL punch their ticket with a W
🥤SEA-RSL: RSL gain vital wc ground with a win or draw
#MLS-Live
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿ORL-VAN: Big seeding implications in this one
🍿🍿LAFC-ATX: LA try to stay alive in the race for 1st while ATX look to avoid the wc
🍿LAG-DAL: DAL punch their ticket with a W
🥤SEA-RSL: RSL gain vital wc ground with a win or draw
#MLS-Live
Quick lookahead post prior to the LAFC-TOR match this evening; will update long term forecasts and whatnot ahead of the weekend slate:
This one doesn't shape up to be particularly interesting to anybody but the sickos
#MLS-Live
This one doesn't shape up to be particularly interesting to anybody but the sickos
#MLS-Live
October 8, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Quick lookahead post prior to the LAFC-TOR match this evening; will update long term forecasts and whatnot ahead of the weekend slate:
This one doesn't shape up to be particularly interesting to anybody but the sickos
#MLS-Live
This one doesn't shape up to be particularly interesting to anybody but the sickos
#MLS-Live
Feel like there’s a slightly different taste than I recall with brisket, but shreds nicely and definitely should substitute nicely when not cooking for a large group
October 4, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Feel like there’s a slightly different taste than I recall with brisket, but shreds nicely and definitely should substitute nicely when not cooking for a large group
Fortuitous win for #CLTFC today riding a 2-man advantage to a necessary 1-0 win
It makes a fall to the wildcard places very unlikely, and at least gives us a reason to pay attention to the other top 4 scores tonight
It makes a fall to the wildcard places very unlikely, and at least gives us a reason to pay attention to the other top 4 scores tonight
🐝🏙️⚽ #CLTFC Leverage on the line at DC United:
Well, last week sucked
CLT are now outside of the Top 4 and suddenly in need of points to keep pace in a crowded east. A win brightens things up, while a loss or draw makes a slip to 7th or below terrifyingly possible 👻
#ForTheCrown
Well, last week sucked
CLT are now outside of the Top 4 and suddenly in need of points to keep pace in a crowded east. A win brightens things up, while a loss or draw makes a slip to 7th or below terrifyingly possible 👻
#ForTheCrown
October 4, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Fortuitous win for #CLTFC today riding a 2-man advantage to a necessary 1-0 win
It makes a fall to the wildcard places very unlikely, and at least gives us a reason to pay attention to the other top 4 scores tonight
It makes a fall to the wildcard places very unlikely, and at least gives us a reason to pay attention to the other top 4 scores tonight
Heard tell that it subs well for brisket so I’m smoking a chuck roast this afternoon to see for myself 🔥
October 4, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Heard tell that it subs well for brisket so I’m smoking a chuck roast this afternoon to see for myself 🔥
I don’t love the power ranking methodology I’m using in my own analysis, but I’m glad to see that it at least aligns with this great work on teams like CIN, CLT and NYC overachieving this season
The tables can still right themselves with 6 or 9 points at stake left in the season for each team. We won't know for sure until after Decision Day.
We can use Points - xPoints to more easily see who is above or below expected right now and by how much.
4/
We can use Points - xPoints to more easily see who is above or below expected right now and by how much.
4/
October 4, 2025 at 1:21 AM
I don’t love the power ranking methodology I’m using in my own analysis, but I’m glad to see that it at least aligns with this great work on teams like CIN, CLT and NYC overachieving this season
🐝🏙️⚽ #CLTFC Leverage on the line at DC United:
Well, last week sucked
CLT are now outside of the Top 4 and suddenly in need of points to keep pace in a crowded east. A win brightens things up, while a loss or draw makes a slip to 7th or below terrifyingly possible 👻
#ForTheCrown
Well, last week sucked
CLT are now outside of the Top 4 and suddenly in need of points to keep pace in a crowded east. A win brightens things up, while a loss or draw makes a slip to 7th or below terrifyingly possible 👻
#ForTheCrown
October 2, 2025 at 4:21 PM
🐝🏙️⚽ #CLTFC Leverage on the line at DC United:
Well, last week sucked
CLT are now outside of the Top 4 and suddenly in need of points to keep pace in a crowded east. A win brightens things up, while a loss or draw makes a slip to 7th or below terrifyingly possible 👻
#ForTheCrown
Well, last week sucked
CLT are now outside of the Top 4 and suddenly in need of points to keep pace in a crowded east. A win brightens things up, while a loss or draw makes a slip to 7th or below terrifyingly possible 👻
#ForTheCrown
🍁Here's the MLS lookahead thread for 10/4-5 🇺🇸⚽🍁:
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿RSL-COL: WC lives on the line for both teams
🍿🍿VAN-SJ: Critical match for seeding and survival, respectively
🍿ORL-CLB: Big implications here for EC seeding races
🥤PHI-NYC: NYC top 4 status hangs in the balance
#MLS-Live
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿RSL-COL: WC lives on the line for both teams
🍿🍿VAN-SJ: Critical match for seeding and survival, respectively
🍿ORL-CLB: Big implications here for EC seeding races
🥤PHI-NYC: NYC top 4 status hangs in the balance
#MLS-Live
October 2, 2025 at 4:14 PM
🍁Here's the MLS lookahead thread for 10/4-5 🇺🇸⚽🍁:
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿RSL-COL: WC lives on the line for both teams
🍿🍿VAN-SJ: Critical match for seeding and survival, respectively
🍿ORL-CLB: Big implications here for EC seeding races
🥤PHI-NYC: NYC top 4 status hangs in the balance
#MLS-Live
Top 3 matchups:
🍿🍿🍿RSL-COL: WC lives on the line for both teams
🍿🍿VAN-SJ: Critical match for seeding and survival, respectively
🍿ORL-CLB: Big implications here for EC seeding races
🥤PHI-NYC: NYC top 4 status hangs in the balance
#MLS-Live
⚽🇺🇸MLS futures forecast coming out of the 9/27-9/28 match window:
🛡️Supporters Shield race:
- It's PHI's race to lose at this point; despite their playing playoff-quality opponents in their final two matches, the Union lift the shield in most of my sims
#MLS-Live
🛡️Supporters Shield race:
- It's PHI's race to lose at this point; despite their playing playoff-quality opponents in their final two matches, the Union lift the shield in most of my sims
#MLS-Live
September 30, 2025 at 12:07 PM
⚽🇺🇸MLS futures forecast coming out of the 9/27-9/28 match window:
🛡️Supporters Shield race:
- It's PHI's race to lose at this point; despite their playing playoff-quality opponents in their final two matches, the Union lift the shield in most of my sims
#MLS-Live
🛡️Supporters Shield race:
- It's PHI's race to lose at this point; despite their playing playoff-quality opponents in their final two matches, the Union lift the shield in most of my sims
#MLS-Live