Nathan Lauster
@lausterna.bsky.social
UBC sociologist, demographer, housing & urban regulation scholar, author, immigrant, blogs at https://homefreesociology.com/
"Hey buddy, don't you think you've had enough?" I say to the starling pecking at the suet feeder, while working through my third butter cookie of the morning.
December 26, 2025 at 7:33 PM
"Hey buddy, don't you think you've had enough?" I say to the starling pecking at the suet feeder, while working through my third butter cookie of the morning.
The tall evergreens really stand out like Christmas trees against Vancouver's skyline now, with the latest snow blending to sky in the mountains beyond.
For its part, Sen̓áḵw (under the crane) continues to look like a present nearly ready to be unwrapped. senakw.com
For its part, Sen̓áḵw (under the crane) continues to look like a present nearly ready to be unwrapped. senakw.com
December 24, 2025 at 12:17 AM
The tall evergreens really stand out like Christmas trees against Vancouver's skyline now, with the latest snow blending to sky in the mountains beyond.
For its part, Sen̓áḵw (under the crane) continues to look like a present nearly ready to be unwrapped. senakw.com
For its part, Sen̓áḵw (under the crane) continues to look like a present nearly ready to be unwrapped. senakw.com
This was always the right approach.
Target the predatory private colleges feeding off international students as part of BROADENING Canada's welcome to those students rather than curtailing it.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Target the predatory private colleges feeding off international students as part of BROADENING Canada's welcome to those students rather than curtailing it.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
B.C.'s Pacific Link College shut down for misleading international students | CBC News
The province has revoked Pacific Link College's certification — just weeks after students came forward to CBC News alleging the school required them to participate in a political campaign for course c...
www.cbc.ca
December 19, 2025 at 5:47 PM
This was always the right approach.
Target the predatory private colleges feeding off international students as part of BROADENING Canada's welcome to those students rather than curtailing it.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Target the predatory private colleges feeding off international students as part of BROADENING Canada's welcome to those students rather than curtailing it.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
"She says that some people who live on their boats do so because they lost their jobs and couldn't afford to live elsewhere..." but those tossed on the shores were mostly abandoned.
Either way, oof. It was a rough night for folks living on their boats. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Either way, oof. It was a rough night for folks living on their boats. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Boats run aground in False Creek after overnight windstorm | CBC News
A number of boats ran aground in Vancouver's False Creek early Wednesday morning amid a windstorm, and it's led to calls for governments to step up and deal with the problem of derelict boats along th...
www.cbc.ca
December 18, 2025 at 3:31 AM
"She says that some people who live on their boats do so because they lost their jobs and couldn't afford to live elsewhere..." but those tossed on the shores were mostly abandoned.
Either way, oof. It was a rough night for folks living on their boats. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Either way, oof. It was a rough night for folks living on their boats. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
December 18, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
New quarterly population projections are in today, quick update looking at BC. Net interprovincial migration turned positive again, but net overall migration including international migration turned negative for the first time since COVID due to strong net NPR outflows.
December 17, 2025 at 4:34 PM
New quarterly population projections are in today, quick update looking at BC. Net interprovincial migration turned positive again, but net overall migration including international migration turned negative for the first time since COVID due to strong net NPR outflows.
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
I wrote this brief talk on why “augmenting diversity” with LLMs is empirically unsubstantiable, conceptually flawed, and epistemically harmful and a nice surprise to see the organisers have made it public
synthetic-data-workshop.github.io/papers/13.pdf
synthetic-data-workshop.github.io/papers/13.pdf
December 16, 2025 at 10:57 AM
I wrote this brief talk on why “augmenting diversity” with LLMs is empirically unsubstantiable, conceptually flawed, and epistemically harmful and a nice surprise to see the organisers have made it public
synthetic-data-workshop.github.io/papers/13.pdf
synthetic-data-workshop.github.io/papers/13.pdf
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
Late to comment on the RMS data release from last week, but wanted to update this graph on turnover and note that increased vacancy rates and easing rents have enabled more people to move (in most markets). Which is good.
December 16, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Late to comment on the RMS data release from last week, but wanted to update this graph on turnover and note that increased vacancy rates and easing rents have enabled more people to move (in most markets). Which is good.
POV: you have no idea what time of year it is, only that your sabbatical is almost here.
(photo taken today, from much beloved weird little winter-blooming mutant cherry tree in Vancouver)
(photo taken today, from much beloved weird little winter-blooming mutant cherry tree in Vancouver)
December 16, 2025 at 12:21 AM
POV: you have no idea what time of year it is, only that your sabbatical is almost here.
(photo taken today, from much beloved weird little winter-blooming mutant cherry tree in Vancouver)
(photo taken today, from much beloved weird little winter-blooming mutant cherry tree in Vancouver)
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
As-of-right zoning for housing people, discretionary approvals for housing cars
December 13, 2025 at 10:11 PM
As-of-right zoning for housing people, discretionary approvals for housing cars
A fine remembrance of someone left at Kits Beach today.
Don't know who, but adding little anonymous touches of beauty around town is probably how I'd want to be remembered too.
Don't know who, but adding little anonymous touches of beauty around town is probably how I'd want to be remembered too.
December 12, 2025 at 11:26 PM
A fine remembrance of someone left at Kits Beach today.
Don't know who, but adding little anonymous touches of beauty around town is probably how I'd want to be remembered too.
Don't know who, but adding little anonymous touches of beauty around town is probably how I'd want to be remembered too.
Back-to-back CBC British Columbia news items.
BC has too many people living in cars because they can't find housing. Think I'm going to stick with the province on this one.
RV fire: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Metro Van mayors: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
BC has too many people living in cars because they can't find housing. Think I'm going to stick with the province on this one.
RV fire: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Metro Van mayors: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
December 12, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Back-to-back CBC British Columbia news items.
BC has too many people living in cars because they can't find housing. Think I'm going to stick with the province on this one.
RV fire: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Metro Van mayors: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
BC has too many people living in cars because they can't find housing. Think I'm going to stick with the province on this one.
RV fire: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Metro Van mayors: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
Today’s Rental Market Report sheds some light on how liquid demographics works in Vancouver. The rental vacancy rate for the metro region was 3.7%, giving people more choice on where to move. And they flowed toward the City of Vancouver resulting in a lower vacancy rate of 2.7% vs Surrey’s at 4.4%.
December 12, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Today’s Rental Market Report sheds some light on how liquid demographics works in Vancouver. The rental vacancy rate for the metro region was 3.7%, giving people more choice on where to move. And they flowed toward the City of Vancouver resulting in a lower vacancy rate of 2.7% vs Surrey’s at 4.4%.
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
My Tyee article is out - on the stalewasem bridge: thetyee.ca/Culture/2025...
December 12, 2025 at 6:57 AM
My Tyee article is out - on the stalewasem bridge: thetyee.ca/Culture/2025...
Neat history of Berkeley's 1916 claim to first single-family zoning in the USA & its alignment to racist restriction.
The Shaughnessy Act from 1914 means Point Grey (Vancouver) has a strong claim to N. America's first exclusionary single-family zone.
www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/docume...
The Shaughnessy Act from 1914 means Point Grey (Vancouver) has a strong claim to N. America's first exclusionary single-family zone.
www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/docume...
December 12, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Neat history of Berkeley's 1916 claim to first single-family zoning in the USA & its alignment to racist restriction.
The Shaughnessy Act from 1914 means Point Grey (Vancouver) has a strong claim to N. America's first exclusionary single-family zone.
www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/docume...
The Shaughnessy Act from 1914 means Point Grey (Vancouver) has a strong claim to N. America's first exclusionary single-family zone.
www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/docume...
Check and see if your mayor is on the Province's naughty or nice list! vancouversun.com/news/metro-v...
December 12, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Check and see if your mayor is on the Province's naughty or nice list! vancouversun.com/news/metro-v...
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
BREAKING: Officials in Sumas, Wash., immediately south of Abbotsford will be sounding their flood siren that warns residents to evacuate. This is a sign of likely flooding in Sumas Prairie in Abbotsford.
www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=...
www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=...
December 10, 2025 at 11:50 PM
BREAKING: Officials in Sumas, Wash., immediately south of Abbotsford will be sounding their flood siren that warns residents to evacuate. This is a sign of likely flooding in Sumas Prairie in Abbotsford.
www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=...
www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=...
More broadly here, @jensvb.bsky.social and I explore solid v. liquid views in demography.
Do people move on conveyor belts, so local projections can be based on on-off levers? ❌
Or do people move in streams, so they flow over a landscape & pool & settle in the containers available? ✅
Do people move on conveyor belts, so local projections can be based on on-off levers? ❌
Or do people move in streams, so they flow over a landscape & pool & settle in the containers available? ✅
Will the suburb of Surrey REALLY surpass Vancouver's population within the next couple of years?
Maybe.
But @jensvb.bsky.social and I lack confidence in demographic projection assumptions, which ignore the key issue: housing and where it's likely to land.
homefreesociology.com/2025/12/08/t...
Maybe.
But @jensvb.bsky.social and I lack confidence in demographic projection assumptions, which ignore the key issue: housing and where it's likely to land.
homefreesociology.com/2025/12/08/t...
The Trouble with Municipal-level Population Projections
Co-authored by Jens von Bergmann and cross-posted at MountainMath Are people liquids or solids? Trick question: they’re kind of both. This matters in terms of how we track people and project their …
homefreesociology.com
December 10, 2025 at 10:11 PM
More broadly here, @jensvb.bsky.social and I explore solid v. liquid views in demography.
Do people move on conveyor belts, so local projections can be based on on-off levers? ❌
Or do people move in streams, so they flow over a landscape & pool & settle in the containers available? ✅
Do people move on conveyor belts, so local projections can be based on on-off levers? ❌
Or do people move in streams, so they flow over a landscape & pool & settle in the containers available? ✅
Not surprisingly, I think @wazaroff.bsky.social has good housing takes here, but also great to see the fundamental decency & humility with which he's approaching many of his answers in this interview.
Also now I kinda want to watch the old chess-themed RomCom he wrote & directed.
Also now I kinda want to watch the old chess-themed RomCom he wrote & directed.
December 10, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Not surprisingly, I think @wazaroff.bsky.social has good housing takes here, but also great to see the fundamental decency & humility with which he's approaching many of his answers in this interview.
Also now I kinda want to watch the old chess-themed RomCom he wrote & directed.
Also now I kinda want to watch the old chess-themed RomCom he wrote & directed.
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
Recently StatCan started producing municipal level population projections. While that sounds good in principle, @lausterna.bsky.social and I explain why the StatCan projections are problematic.
And we illustrate this using Surrey and Vancouver projections as an example.
And we illustrate this using Surrey and Vancouver projections as an example.
The trouble with municipal-level population projections – Mountain Doodles
StatCan is now providing municipal level population projections, and we explain why that’s likely going to cause problems.
doodles.mountainmath.ca
December 9, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Recently StatCan started producing municipal level population projections. While that sounds good in principle, @lausterna.bsky.social and I explain why the StatCan projections are problematic.
And we illustrate this using Surrey and Vancouver projections as an example.
And we illustrate this using Surrey and Vancouver projections as an example.
Will the suburb of Surrey REALLY surpass Vancouver's population within the next couple of years?
Maybe.
But @jensvb.bsky.social and I lack confidence in demographic projection assumptions, which ignore the key issue: housing and where it's likely to land.
homefreesociology.com/2025/12/08/t...
Maybe.
But @jensvb.bsky.social and I lack confidence in demographic projection assumptions, which ignore the key issue: housing and where it's likely to land.
homefreesociology.com/2025/12/08/t...
The Trouble with Municipal-level Population Projections
Co-authored by Jens von Bergmann and cross-posted at MountainMath Are people liquids or solids? Trick question: they’re kind of both. This matters in terms of how we track people and project their …
homefreesociology.com
December 9, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Will the suburb of Surrey REALLY surpass Vancouver's population within the next couple of years?
Maybe.
But @jensvb.bsky.social and I lack confidence in demographic projection assumptions, which ignore the key issue: housing and where it's likely to land.
homefreesociology.com/2025/12/08/t...
Maybe.
But @jensvb.bsky.social and I lack confidence in demographic projection assumptions, which ignore the key issue: housing and where it's likely to land.
homefreesociology.com/2025/12/08/t...
Vancouver's golden minute* is upon us!
* used to be an hour prior to budget cuts
* used to be an hour prior to budget cuts
December 8, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Vancouver's golden minute* is upon us!
* used to be an hour prior to budget cuts
* used to be an hour prior to budget cuts
Last Friday of classes at UBC, so I have taken the time to give this important @anthonyfloyd.ca question some thought.
I'm mostly NG.
I'm mostly NG.
December 5, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Last Friday of classes at UBC, so I have taken the time to give this important @anthonyfloyd.ca question some thought.
I'm mostly NG.
I'm mostly NG.
Good deep dive into landlord-tenant disputes here, with criticism of how the RTB arbitration process is working.
Most arbitrators are probably harried public servants doing their best, but I am reminded that Dallas Brodie prominently touted her time as an RTB arbitrator in her bio, and I shudder.
Most arbitrators are probably harried public servants doing their best, but I am reminded that Dallas Brodie prominently touted her time as an RTB arbitrator in her bio, and I shudder.
The tenants of Park Beach have been fighting aggressive eviction threats for nearly two years.
Their landlord has painted them as criminals and thieves - and to their dismay, some Residential Tenancy Branch arbitrators have accepted that characterization. thetyee.ca/News/2025/12...
Their landlord has painted them as criminals and thieves - and to their dismay, some Residential Tenancy Branch arbitrators have accepted that characterization. thetyee.ca/News/2025/12...
A Vancouver Landlord Keeps Being Allowed to Evict Tenants. Why? | The Tyee
Residents want to know why BC’s Residential Tenancy Branch keeps siding with Plan A.
thetyee.ca
December 5, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Good deep dive into landlord-tenant disputes here, with criticism of how the RTB arbitration process is working.
Most arbitrators are probably harried public servants doing their best, but I am reminded that Dallas Brodie prominently touted her time as an RTB arbitrator in her bio, and I shudder.
Most arbitrators are probably harried public servants doing their best, but I am reminded that Dallas Brodie prominently touted her time as an RTB arbitrator in her bio, and I shudder.
Reposted by Nathan Lauster
Reviving this fun format from a couple of years ago with updated data.
December 5, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Reviving this fun format from a couple of years ago with updated data.