Robert Kirchoff, MD, FACP, FASAM
@kirchoff.org
Academic Hospitalist | Researcher | Addictionologist | Informaticist | AzSAM President | Triathlete | Detroit Native
The content and views posted here are my own and do not reflect my institutional affiliations, etc
The content and views posted here are my own and do not reflect my institutional affiliations, etc
False-Certainty Probability Formula
P_h = α × (T_c / D_c)
Where:
P_h = hallucination probability
T_c = tone confidence
D_c = domain correctness
α = corpus bias constant
When T_c ↑ but D_c ↓ → P_h spikes.
AI will not replace physicians. Relax.
P_h = α × (T_c / D_c)
Where:
P_h = hallucination probability
T_c = tone confidence
D_c = domain correctness
α = corpus bias constant
When T_c ↑ but D_c ↓ → P_h spikes.
AI will not replace physicians. Relax.
November 29, 2025 at 1:23 AM
False-Certainty Probability Formula
P_h = α × (T_c / D_c)
Where:
P_h = hallucination probability
T_c = tone confidence
D_c = domain correctness
α = corpus bias constant
When T_c ↑ but D_c ↓ → P_h spikes.
AI will not replace physicians. Relax.
P_h = α × (T_c / D_c)
Where:
P_h = hallucination probability
T_c = tone confidence
D_c = domain correctness
α = corpus bias constant
When T_c ↑ but D_c ↓ → P_h spikes.
AI will not replace physicians. Relax.
Two interesting formulas to consider:
P(disease | symptom) ∝ P(symptom | disease) × P(disease)
P(drug | disease) ∝ P(drug | review) × P(review | rating)
P(disease | symptom) ∝ P(symptom | disease) × P(disease)
P(drug | disease) ∝ P(drug | review) × P(review | rating)
November 29, 2025 at 1:23 AM
Two interesting formulas to consider:
P(disease | symptom) ∝ P(symptom | disease) × P(disease)
P(drug | disease) ∝ P(drug | review) × P(review | rating)
P(disease | symptom) ∝ P(symptom | disease) × P(disease)
P(drug | disease) ∝ P(drug | review) × P(review | rating)
Wishing everyone a very anti-MAGA thanksgiving. May your holidays be filled with tolerance, peace, and a complete absence of xenophobia.
November 27, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Wishing everyone a very anti-MAGA thanksgiving. May your holidays be filled with tolerance, peace, and a complete absence of xenophobia.
Encouraging news: COVID-era telehealth rules for addiction meds are likely extended again. Not yet official, but reassuring that these vital services will remain in place for those who need them most. Barriers to treatment are steep—telehealth bridges the gap.
Covid-era rules for addiction medication, Ritalin are extended again
For a fourth time, the government avoids making permanent policy on telehealth prescriptions of controlled medications for addiction and ADHD.
www.statnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Encouraging news: COVID-era telehealth rules for addiction meds are likely extended again. Not yet official, but reassuring that these vital services will remain in place for those who need them most. Barriers to treatment are steep—telehealth bridges the gap.
Important work
At least we put real sugar back in Coke, changed some food dyes, & demonized vaccines. Y'know, the real work to Make America Healthy Again!
During his campaign, Trump (& RFK) promised to rein in the use of dangerous pesticides, but the EPA has loosened oversight and is accelerating pesticide approvals.
Notably, the top 4 positions in the new Trump EPA’s chemical safety office are held by former pesticide and chemical industry lobbyists
Notably, the top 4 positions in the new Trump EPA’s chemical safety office are held by former pesticide and chemical industry lobbyists
November 11, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Important work
This one took a while to get accepted, but we are excited to take this off the project dashboard. Congrats all! #pocus #research #academicmedicine
www.mdpi.com
October 27, 2025 at 4:18 PM
This one took a while to get accepted, but we are excited to take this off the project dashboard. Congrats all! #pocus #research #academicmedicine
It’s almost as though non-scientists /cognitively deficient conspiracy theorists shouldn’t be making decisions that impact public health. 🤷🏽 #medsky
June 13, 2025 at 2:22 PM
It’s almost as though non-scientists /cognitively deficient conspiracy theorists shouldn’t be making decisions that impact public health. 🤷🏽 #medsky
Perks of being a nocturnist …
June 6, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Perks of being a nocturnist …
despair.com actually has some pretty awesome calendars lol this is a good find
Home of Demotivators® - The World's Best Demotivational Posters
Motivational posters don't work. But our legendary demotivational posters don't work even BETTER! Browse our famed Demotivators® line and see for yourself!
despair.com
March 6, 2025 at 9:40 PM
despair.com actually has some pretty awesome calendars lol this is a good find
💯
Don’t be afraid to make the people you know uncomfortable. It’s much more uncomfortable not having basic rights and not having your basic needs met.
March 6, 2025 at 2:10 PM
💯
This is a great idea. Really helps to predetermine whether you’re going to have a negative or positive experience when you open social media!
March 6, 2025 at 5:03 AM
This is a great idea. Really helps to predetermine whether you’re going to have a negative or positive experience when you open social media!
I’m genuinely scared to Google if there’s an at home CRP…
March 6, 2025 at 5:01 AM
I’m genuinely scared to Google if there’s an at home CRP…
Outcomes:
Patient stays home —>???
Patient brings positive at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-Dimer
Patient brings negative at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-dimer
Patient presents to ED with no at-home test —> ED orders D-dimer
#medsky
Patient stays home —>???
Patient brings positive at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-Dimer
Patient brings negative at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-dimer
Patient presents to ED with no at-home test —> ED orders D-dimer
D-dimer has never in its life given a ‘reliable answer’.
March 6, 2025 at 4:58 AM
Outcomes:
Patient stays home —>???
Patient brings positive at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-Dimer
Patient brings negative at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-dimer
Patient presents to ED with no at-home test —> ED orders D-dimer
#medsky
Patient stays home —>???
Patient brings positive at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-Dimer
Patient brings negative at-home test to ED —> ED orders D-dimer
Patient presents to ED with no at-home test —> ED orders D-dimer
Webdesigners and DBA’s: if you are going to authenticate using an email address as username, don’t make the field case sensitive.
March 5, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Webdesigners and DBA’s: if you are going to authenticate using an email address as username, don’t make the field case sensitive.
Reposted by Robert Kirchoff, MD, FACP, FASAM
Note: obviously I'm kidding about the collapse. That has already happened.
Normal work at NIH to review grants is nearly completely blocked. And $1 billion has been blocked from going out the door. My work, and thousands of projects like it around the nation, are about to grind to a halt.
Normal work at NIH to review grants is nearly completely blocked. And $1 billion has been blocked from going out the door. My work, and thousands of projects like it around the nation, are about to grind to a halt.
March 3, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Note: obviously I'm kidding about the collapse. That has already happened.
Normal work at NIH to review grants is nearly completely blocked. And $1 billion has been blocked from going out the door. My work, and thousands of projects like it around the nation, are about to grind to a halt.
Normal work at NIH to review grants is nearly completely blocked. And $1 billion has been blocked from going out the door. My work, and thousands of projects like it around the nation, are about to grind to a halt.
Reposted by Robert Kirchoff, MD, FACP, FASAM
Dear universities, scientists, lawyers, farmers, workers, artists, doctors...
Being silent won't protect you.
Being silent won't protect you.
March 4, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Dear universities, scientists, lawyers, farmers, workers, artists, doctors...
Being silent won't protect you.
Being silent won't protect you.
Reposted by Robert Kirchoff, MD, FACP, FASAM
Friendly reminder: if you are waiting on something from a US-based scientist/reviewer/editor, please realize that we're barely making it through each day putting out non-stop fires and trying not to collapse into tears. We're trying our best, but things will take longer right now. Give grace.
March 3, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Friendly reminder: if you are waiting on something from a US-based scientist/reviewer/editor, please realize that we're barely making it through each day putting out non-stop fires and trying not to collapse into tears. We're trying our best, but things will take longer right now. Give grace.
My disrupted sleek-wake cycle allowed me to stumble upon this…#90sky (if that tag isn’t a thing it should be)
You Have Died of Dysentery: The Oregon Trail Game
www.died-of-dysentery.com
March 4, 2025 at 9:02 AM
My disrupted sleek-wake cycle allowed me to stumble upon this…#90sky (if that tag isn’t a thing it should be)
Reposted by Robert Kirchoff, MD, FACP, FASAM
This could go a number of ways ranging from self-destruction to epic career progress. 🤔
March 3, 2025 at 4:47 AM
This could go a number of ways ranging from self-destruction to epic career progress. 🤔
Conan O’Dummy 😂😂… I’m pretty sure my 3 yo has come up with more creative jabs (usually directed at me). Also, out of curiosity… why is that guy living in the White House tweeting insults at awards show hosts?
March 3, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Conan O’Dummy 😂😂… I’m pretty sure my 3 yo has come up with more creative jabs (usually directed at me). Also, out of curiosity… why is that guy living in the White House tweeting insults at awards show hosts?
Haha ok. Makes sense. I spent more time than I would like to admit googling variations of “what happened to Howie Mandel” and “it’s change your life” 🤣
March 2, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Haha ok. Makes sense. I spent more time than I would like to admit googling variations of “what happened to Howie Mandel” and “it’s change your life” 🤣
What is the backstory of this?
March 1, 2025 at 11:18 PM
What is the backstory of this?
Reposted by Robert Kirchoff, MD, FACP, FASAM
Hypertension is rises, and HyperAldo is back on #NephJC!
#NephJCld MRAs be stopped for "safety," or are we overthinking it? 🤔
Are we following guidelines or just adding complexity?
🔥 #NephMadness is around the corner—let’s revisit 2019 data! #NephJC
#NephJCld MRAs be stopped for "safety," or are we overthinking it? 🤔
Are we following guidelines or just adding complexity?
🔥 #NephMadness is around the corner—let’s revisit 2019 data! #NephJC
February 26, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Hypertension is rises, and HyperAldo is back on #NephJC!
#NephJCld MRAs be stopped for "safety," or are we overthinking it? 🤔
Are we following guidelines or just adding complexity?
🔥 #NephMadness is around the corner—let’s revisit 2019 data! #NephJC
#NephJCld MRAs be stopped for "safety," or are we overthinking it? 🤔
Are we following guidelines or just adding complexity?
🔥 #NephMadness is around the corner—let’s revisit 2019 data! #NephJC
The sharply dressed men of the Republican Party. Definitely well positioned to be giving advice on professional attire. 👍
February 28, 2025 at 11:41 PM
The sharply dressed men of the Republican Party. Definitely well positioned to be giving advice on professional attire. 👍