Jordan Tessler
@jztessler.bsky.social
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Jordan Tessler
@jztessler.bsky.social
Β· Dec 5
not at all surprised
You can argue that weather patterns helped set the groundwork for the French Revolution: a one-two punch of devastating hailstorms in 1788 followed by an exceptionally cold winter in 1788β89 that turned crop damage into full-blown food crisis
February 3, 2026 at 12:51 AM
You can argue that weather patterns helped set the groundwork for the French Revolution: a one-two punch of devastating hailstorms in 1788 followed by an exceptionally cold winter in 1788β89 that turned crop damage into full-blown food crisis
oh no, I made too many vegetables in my roasted veggie medley tonight
My doctor is on her way with a medal
My doctor is on her way with a medal
February 2, 2026 at 11:38 PM
oh no, I made too many vegetables in my roasted veggie medley tonight
My doctor is on her way with a medal
My doctor is on her way with a medal
Melt this icy concrete and get it out of my way
February 2, 2026 at 8:11 PM
Melt this icy concrete and get it out of my way
Throw a f-ing party because it's over 32 in DC
February 2, 2026 at 7:13 PM
Throw a f-ing party because it's over 32 in DC
reach out to fmr NYC mayor Bill de Blasio. Dropped the groundhog and it died a week later
February 2, 2026 at 4:18 PM
reach out to fmr NYC mayor Bill de Blasio. Dropped the groundhog and it died a week later
This cold has driven most of South Florida into the 40s
Andros Island in the Bahamas dropped into the 40s
Andros Island in the Bahamas dropped into the 40s
February 2, 2026 at 2:46 AM
This cold has driven most of South Florida into the 40s
Andros Island in the Bahamas dropped into the 40s
Andros Island in the Bahamas dropped into the 40s
It's rudely cold today
(Map is wind chills using RTMA gusts)
(Map is wind chills using RTMA gusts)
February 1, 2026 at 6:36 PM
It's rudely cold today
(Map is wind chills using RTMA gusts)
(Map is wind chills using RTMA gusts)
I'd caution against reading too far into a special election in the dead of winter, but it's a data point that keeps the arrow pointing in a *dramatic* direction
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-...
February 1, 2026 at 6:19 PM
I'd caution against reading too far into a special election in the dead of winter, but it's a data point that keeps the arrow pointing in a *dramatic* direction
I spent so much time batting down hype from stuff like this it sucked the interest in forecasting publicly out of me. I couldnβt compete against the hypesters and there was no reward for being one of the sane ones.
The algorithms suppressed the calm analysis and amplified the *that* (still do)
The algorithms suppressed the calm analysis and amplified the *that* (still do)
February 1, 2026 at 4:28 PM
I spent so much time batting down hype from stuff like this it sucked the interest in forecasting publicly out of me. I couldnβt compete against the hypesters and there was no reward for being one of the sane ones.
The algorithms suppressed the calm analysis and amplified the *that* (still do)
The algorithms suppressed the calm analysis and amplified the *that* (still do)
So it's an autobiography?
Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, has earned a reputation as perhaps the most quotable senator because of his folksy, simile-heavy way of speaking.
His book, βHow to Test Negative for Stupid: And Why Washington Never Will,β is written in that same tone. https://wapo.st/4k3T9Dc
His book, βHow to Test Negative for Stupid: And Why Washington Never Will,β is written in that same tone. https://wapo.st/4k3T9Dc
January 31, 2026 at 8:05 PM
So it's an autobiography?
Wait, WAIT, WAIT
DC will not be "hit hard" other than winds but then why add DC but not Richmond... Oh right, shameless clickbait
DC will not be "hit hard" other than winds but then why add DC but not Richmond... Oh right, shameless clickbait
A powerful norβeaster is coming for eastern Georgia, the Carolinas and southern Virginia and eastern Massachusetts.
In the Outer Banks, the stormβs peak will come with blizzard conditions and a destructive blow of tropical-storm-force winds and huge waves. https://wapo.st/3M5cOpN
In the Outer Banks, the stormβs peak will come with blizzard conditions and a destructive blow of tropical-storm-force winds and huge waves. https://wapo.st/3M5cOpN
January 31, 2026 at 3:38 PM
Wait, WAIT, WAIT
DC will not be "hit hard" other than winds but then why add DC but not Richmond... Oh right, shameless clickbait
DC will not be "hit hard" other than winds but then why add DC but not Richmond... Oh right, shameless clickbait
Disrespectfully cold
The high in DC today was just 21, coldest of the winter so far. Tomorrowβs high may even be lower, not even reaching 20!
January 30, 2026 at 11:53 PM
Disrespectfully cold
Yes, snitch on big box stores
January 30, 2026 at 1:13 AM
Yes, snitch on big box stores
Yes, snitch on your neighbors
January 30, 2026 at 1:09 AM
Yes, snitch on your neighbors
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Wait, not finished yet
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Yeah tell that to the prior authorization denial letter sitting on my desk
Wait, not finished yet
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Yeah tell that to the prior authorization denial letter sitting on my desk
January 29, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Wait, not finished yet
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Yeah tell that to the prior authorization denial letter sitting on my desk
Wait, not finished yet
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Yeah tell that to the prior authorization denial letter sitting on my desk
Note that the economy still leads by a wide margin of course "top issue" just means most important not "sole importance"
Economist/YouGov Jan 23-26
% of Americans whose top issue is:
Inflation/prices 23%
Jobs and the economy 13%
Health care 10%
Immigration 9%
Civil rights 8%
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
% of Americans whose top issue is:
Inflation/prices 23%
Jobs and the economy 13%
Health care 10%
Immigration 9%
Civil rights 8%
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
January 29, 2026 at 1:50 AM
Note that the economy still leads by a wide margin of course "top issue" just means most important not "sole importance"
If you can get to the mailbox, I'll send you a pair of ice skates since that's apparently all the support you're getting...
January 28, 2026 at 11:57 PM
If you can get to the mailbox, I'll send you a pair of ice skates since that's apparently all the support you're getting...
Oh extremely. I noticed that people thought it was going be 6-10" snow then a bit of sleet, not 6-10" snow and sleet combined. So they got blindsided by lower snow snow and then sleet making up the gap and then finding out just how annoying sleet actually is. But the cold afterwards is an x-factor
January 28, 2026 at 11:32 PM
Oh extremely. I noticed that people thought it was going be 6-10" snow then a bit of sleet, not 6-10" snow and sleet combined. So they got blindsided by lower snow snow and then sleet making up the gap and then finding out just how annoying sleet actually is. But the cold afterwards is an x-factor
I think every locality screwed it up. Here they spent so much time on the main roads that as soon as they were deemed good enough the residential had become icebergs
January 28, 2026 at 11:07 PM
I think every locality screwed it up. Here they spent so much time on the main roads that as soon as they were deemed good enough the residential had become icebergs
oh they're having a fun time aren't they in College Park
January 28, 2026 at 4:28 PM
oh they're having a fun time aren't they in College Park
Playing goalie last night even in a class was easily one of the hardest, most taxing things Iβve done in a while but so much fun. A few adjustments for next time
January 28, 2026 at 1:39 PM
Playing goalie last night even in a class was easily one of the hardest, most taxing things Iβve done in a while but so much fun. A few adjustments for next time
Reposted by Jordan Tessler
Weβre pulling out all the stops to get back to normal service! βοΈ
Meet the fire snake. π₯ π
Meet the fire snake. π₯ π
January 27, 2026 at 10:22 PM
Weβre pulling out all the stops to get back to normal service! βοΈ
Meet the fire snake. π₯ π
Meet the fire snake. π₯ π
Wait, I thought they hated FEMA?
The White House and a lot of Republican members are saying that during a shutdown, FEMAβs disaster relief would stop, but that isnβt true.
As of the end of December, FEMAβs disaster relief fund had $23 billion in funds that are usable during a shutdown. And hereβs DHSβs shutdown plan.
As of the end of December, FEMAβs disaster relief fund had $23 billion in funds that are usable during a shutdown. And hereβs DHSβs shutdown plan.
January 27, 2026 at 6:40 PM
Wait, I thought they hated FEMA?
which stacks with the crap apps, especially those driven by GFS going on a full-bore major coastal storm again for something which is far from certain and there's an almighty model fight on
At what point does being prudent about warning "hey somethings up" cross the line
At what point does being prudent about warning "hey somethings up" cross the line
January 27, 2026 at 4:06 PM
which stacks with the crap apps, especially those driven by GFS going on a full-bore major coastal storm again for something which is far from certain and there's an almighty model fight on
At what point does being prudent about warning "hey somethings up" cross the line
At what point does being prudent about warning "hey somethings up" cross the line
What drives me up a wall is that, if you've spent any part of 2 minutes doing this, you do exactly this. You create some kind of snazzy graphic designed to get attention, knowing full well few people who 'engage' will read the actual article which is hedgy
But now you've created "blizzard hype"
But now you've created "blizzard hype"
January 27, 2026 at 4:04 PM
What drives me up a wall is that, if you've spent any part of 2 minutes doing this, you do exactly this. You create some kind of snazzy graphic designed to get attention, knowing full well few people who 'engage' will read the actual article which is hedgy
But now you've created "blizzard hype"
But now you've created "blizzard hype"