Jack Smalligan
@jsmalligan.bsky.social
Senior Policy Fellow at the Urban Institute. Analyze disability, retirement and paid leave policy. Served 27 years in the Office of Management and Budget.
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
Trump and Vought are now breaking both sides of spending law. They’re illegally not spending where the law requires them to spend, and they’re illegally spending where they don’t have the money to spend.
What we have is an appropriations king.
Spending “deals” are meaningless under that setup.
What we have is an appropriations king.
Spending “deals” are meaningless under that setup.
October 15, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Trump and Vought are now breaking both sides of spending law. They’re illegally not spending where the law requires them to spend, and they’re illegally spending where they don’t have the money to spend.
What we have is an appropriations king.
Spending “deals” are meaningless under that setup.
What we have is an appropriations king.
Spending “deals” are meaningless under that setup.
The Wa Post has issued an important story on an upcoming major SSA disability regulation that would especially affect older disabled workers: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
1/2
1/2
Trump plan would limit disability benefits for older Americans
Trump administration officials are considering eliminating age as a factor in deciding whether someone is capable of working.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 5, 2025 at 5:37 PM
The Wa Post has issued an important story on an upcoming major SSA disability regulation that would especially affect older disabled workers: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
1/2
1/2
🧵 Big changes may be coming to disability benefits. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a rule that could reshape how eligibility is determined for SSDI and SSI. Here’s what you need to know—and why it matters. www.urban.org/research/pub...
September 18, 2025 at 6:11 PM
🧵 Big changes may be coming to disability benefits. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a rule that could reshape how eligibility is determined for SSDI and SSI. Here’s what you need to know—and why it matters. www.urban.org/research/pub...
The Administration has taken credit for a substantial drop in the Social Security disability claims backlog. In this piece I explore the concerning factors behind this drop, including fewer new applications and more denials. www.urban.org/urban-wire/s...
The SSA Says It’s Reduced the Disability Claims Backlog. Fewer New Claims and a Higher Denial Rate Could Be Driving the Reduction
To better understand what’s driving a decrease in claims and increase in denials, the Social Security Administration could invest more in the research and st…
www.urban.org
September 13, 2025 at 12:12 PM
The Administration has taken credit for a substantial drop in the Social Security disability claims backlog. In this piece I explore the concerning factors behind this drop, including fewer new applications and more denials. www.urban.org/urban-wire/s...
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
My new op-ed!
“The pocket rescission is just a beacon meant to draw our attention. Trump wants us to focus on the foreign aid impoundments — a shiny object he’s illegally deleting via a pocket rescission — so that we forget about the quiet impoundments of cancer research and preschool funding.”
“The pocket rescission is just a beacon meant to draw our attention. Trump wants us to focus on the foreign aid impoundments — a shiny object he’s illegally deleting via a pocket rescission — so that we forget about the quiet impoundments of cancer research and preschool funding.”
Why a judge shut down Trump's latest budget stunt
A president can’t sign something into law and then immediately ignore parts of it. But that’s exactly what Trump is doing.
www.msnbc.com
September 6, 2025 at 4:58 PM
My new op-ed!
“The pocket rescission is just a beacon meant to draw our attention. Trump wants us to focus on the foreign aid impoundments — a shiny object he’s illegally deleting via a pocket rescission — so that we forget about the quiet impoundments of cancer research and preschool funding.”
“The pocket rescission is just a beacon meant to draw our attention. Trump wants us to focus on the foreign aid impoundments — a shiny object he’s illegally deleting via a pocket rescission — so that we forget about the quiet impoundments of cancer research and preschool funding.”
Important contrast.
Pssst . . . it costs about the same amount to shore up Social Security's finances as it does to make the Trump tax cuts permanent.
But Congressional Republicans are on the verge of shoveling trillions at the wealthiest, while leaving a shortfall in the program we ALL need and love.
But Congressional Republicans are on the verge of shoveling trillions at the wealthiest, while leaving a shortfall in the program we ALL need and love.
June 30, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Important contrast.
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
People have been debating and worried about the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall for decades. It's widely seen as an enormous fiscal challenge.
One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts' permanent cost is actually *larger* than the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall.
One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts' permanent cost is actually *larger* than the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall.
June 18, 2025 at 6:42 PM
People have been debating and worried about the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall for decades. It's widely seen as an enormous fiscal challenge.
One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts' permanent cost is actually *larger* than the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall.
One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts' permanent cost is actually *larger* than the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall.
The House reconciliation bill includes a provision that could keep many thousands of individuals from receiving EITC. This little noticed provision requires IRS to precertify millions of individuals for EITC. See this piece from Janet Holtzblatt. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/one-b...
One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s EITC Precertification Requirement Could Delay Refunds
With precertification, many eligible taxpayers would have to wait longer for their EITC, causing financial hardships in the meantime--if they get it all.
taxpolicycenter.org
June 5, 2025 at 2:51 PM
The House reconciliation bill includes a provision that could keep many thousands of individuals from receiving EITC. This little noticed provision requires IRS to precertify millions of individuals for EITC. See this piece from Janet Holtzblatt. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/one-b...
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
The rescissions request is out. This is very real. As with reconciliation, this is filibuster-proof, meaning that there is no Senate cloture vote, and Republicans can pass it even with all Dems opposed.
The White House is calling to cut global health programs, condemning people to die.
The White House is calling to cut global health programs, condemning people to die.
June 3, 2025 at 9:21 PM
The rescissions request is out. This is very real. As with reconciliation, this is filibuster-proof, meaning that there is no Senate cloture vote, and Republicans can pass it even with all Dems opposed.
The White House is calling to cut global health programs, condemning people to die.
The White House is calling to cut global health programs, condemning people to die.
The crisis at SSA since January 20 is impacting people. Individual claims for retirement benefits are up 13 percent compared with this time last year, an increase of more than 276,000 claims. In this piece Chantel Boyens and I examine the development. 1/4 www.urban.org/urban-wire/m...
More Americans Are Filing for Retirement Benefits Earlier—Their Long-Term Retirement Security Could Suffer as a Result
Claiming Social Security early reduces a person’s monthly benefit and can threaten their and their families’ economic security in the long term.
www.urban.org
May 23, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The crisis at SSA since January 20 is impacting people. Individual claims for retirement benefits are up 13 percent compared with this time last year, an increase of more than 276,000 claims. In this piece Chantel Boyens and I examine the development. 1/4 www.urban.org/urban-wire/m...
An important thread.
THREAD: the Ways & Means bill creates new opportunities for tax avoidance and evasion, adds complexity to the tax system, and increases filing burdens for low- & moderate-income families.
My @taxlawcenter.org colleagues have more analysis coming, but here's a starter list (suggestions welcome):
My @taxlawcenter.org colleagues have more analysis coming, but here's a starter list (suggestions welcome):
May 13, 2025 at 10:08 PM
An important thread.
The FY 2026 President’s Budget level for the Social Security Administration (SSA) represents a second year of essentially flat funding for SSA’s core operations, even as costs and rates of claiming increase, making the proposed level a cut in real terms. 1/5
May 2, 2025 at 6:39 PM
The FY 2026 President’s Budget level for the Social Security Administration (SSA) represents a second year of essentially flat funding for SSA’s core operations, even as costs and rates of claiming increase, making the proposed level a cut in real terms. 1/5
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
he's drawing a line! he's okay with the largest medicaid cuts in history, but not the super duper largest medicaid cuts in history 😤
losing my mind here! $500 billion would still be by far the largest medicaid cuts in us history!
“moderate” don bacon says he’s okay with the largest medicaid cuts ever. they just can’t be an even bigger version of the largest medicaid cuts ever
“moderate” don bacon says he’s okay with the largest medicaid cuts ever. they just can’t be an even bigger version of the largest medicaid cuts ever
April 29, 2025 at 6:14 PM
he's drawing a line! he's okay with the largest medicaid cuts in history, but not the super duper largest medicaid cuts in history 😤
Former Social Security Administration leaders have warned that staffing reductions and computer outages could make SSA more vulnerable to a short interruption in benefits. Urban Institute experts modeled this scenario:
www.urban.org/urban-wire/d...
www.urban.org/urban-wire/d...
Disruptions to Social Security Checks Would Leave 6 Million Beneficiaries Unable to Make Ends Meet
Staffing cuts at the Social Security Administration after years of underfunding could disrupt the delivery of Social Security benefit checks, which would expose millions of Americans to financial hard...
www.urban.org
April 29, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Former Social Security Administration leaders have warned that staffing reductions and computer outages could make SSA more vulnerable to a short interruption in benefits. Urban Institute experts modeled this scenario:
www.urban.org/urban-wire/d...
www.urban.org/urban-wire/d...
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
in total, the republican judiciary bill would give $73 billion to ICE over 5 years - a 140% increase annual increase in ICE funding above its current level of $10.5 per year
$9 billion for ICE agents, $14.4 billion for deportations, $45 billion for detention facilities, $5 billion for other stuff
$9 billion for ICE agents, $14.4 billion for deportations, $45 billion for detention facilities, $5 billion for other stuff
April 28, 2025 at 8:22 PM
in total, the republican judiciary bill would give $73 billion to ICE over 5 years - a 140% increase annual increase in ICE funding above its current level of $10.5 per year
$9 billion for ICE agents, $14.4 billion for deportations, $45 billion for detention facilities, $5 billion for other stuff
$9 billion for ICE agents, $14.4 billion for deportations, $45 billion for detention facilities, $5 billion for other stuff
The National Academy of Social Insurance’s Task Force on AI, Emerging Tech and Disability Benefits has released its Phase One Report. With so much focus on using AI at the Social Security Administration this report is very timely. 1/2 www.nasi.org/pressrelease...
National Academy Task Force on AI, Emerging Tech & Disability Benefits Releases First Report -
National Academy Task Force on AI, Emerging Tech & Disability Benefits Releases First Report
www.nasi.org
April 17, 2025 at 1:27 PM
The National Academy of Social Insurance’s Task Force on AI, Emerging Tech and Disability Benefits has released its Phase One Report. With so much focus on using AI at the Social Security Administration this report is very timely. 1/2 www.nasi.org/pressrelease...
The Trump Administration’s use of the Social Security Administration’s Death Master File for immigration enforcement undermines the integrity and solvency of Social Security. Here is an assessment from Tara Watson and me. See next post on a piece from CBPP.
www.brookings.edu/articles/imm...
www.brookings.edu/articles/imm...
Immigrants and the Social Security death master file
Adding immigrants to the Social Security death master file undermines both the integrity and the solvency of the Social Security system.
www.brookings.edu
April 15, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The Trump Administration’s use of the Social Security Administration’s Death Master File for immigration enforcement undermines the integrity and solvency of Social Security. Here is an assessment from Tara Watson and me. See next post on a piece from CBPP.
www.brookings.edu/articles/imm...
www.brookings.edu/articles/imm...
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
This happens every single time with DOGE. Each “revelation” at Social Security has been at best an elementary misunderstanding, at worst a slanderous lie.
Either way, we cannot trust these people with our sensitive data & vital benefits.
Either way, we cannot trust these people with our sensitive data & vital benefits.
“This is yet another example of a DOGE ‘report’ misunderstanding this data at best, blatantly mischaracterizing this data at worst.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/12/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/12/u...
Musk’s Latest Fraud Finding Isn’t What It Seems
His team found cases of seemingly fake people receiving unemployment benefits. But that fake data exists for a reason.
www.nytimes.com
April 12, 2025 at 2:31 PM
This happens every single time with DOGE. Each “revelation” at Social Security has been at best an elementary misunderstanding, at worst a slanderous lie.
Either way, we cannot trust these people with our sensitive data & vital benefits.
Either way, we cannot trust these people with our sensitive data & vital benefits.
The NYT and WaPost report the Trump Administration is erroneously adding immigrants to what is known as the “death master file” who are not deceased and have legally obtained an SSN. The Social Security Administration has accepted an initial list of about 6,000 immigrants. 1/5
April 11, 2025 at 8:15 PM
The NYT and WaPost report the Trump Administration is erroneously adding immigrants to what is known as the “death master file” who are not deceased and have legally obtained an SSN. The Social Security Administration has accepted an initial list of about 6,000 immigrants. 1/5
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
Republicans have signaled their intent to break all budget rules in the Senate by inventing their own cost estimates on the spot.
This would be many steps towards nuking the filibuster - and you may as well repeal the entire Congressional Budget Act at that point.
Thread explaining it would work
This would be many steps towards nuking the filibuster - and you may as well repeal the entire Congressional Budget Act at that point.
Thread explaining it would work
April 2, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Republicans have signaled their intent to break all budget rules in the Senate by inventing their own cost estimates on the spot.
This would be many steps towards nuking the filibuster - and you may as well repeal the entire Congressional Budget Act at that point.
Thread explaining it would work
This would be many steps towards nuking the filibuster - and you may as well repeal the entire Congressional Budget Act at that point.
Thread explaining it would work
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
My new op-ed w/Jason Fichtner:
The Social Security Administration is in crisis, and people’s benefits are at risk.
We do not say this lightly.
We both served in senior roles at SSA — one of us under a Democratic president and the other under a Republican.
thehill.com/opinion/5220...
The Social Security Administration is in crisis, and people’s benefits are at risk.
We do not say this lightly.
We both served in senior roles at SSA — one of us under a Democratic president and the other under a Republican.
thehill.com/opinion/5220...
thehill.com
March 29, 2025 at 2:25 PM
My new op-ed w/Jason Fichtner:
The Social Security Administration is in crisis, and people’s benefits are at risk.
We do not say this lightly.
We both served in senior roles at SSA — one of us under a Democratic president and the other under a Republican.
thehill.com/opinion/5220...
The Social Security Administration is in crisis, and people’s benefits are at risk.
We do not say this lightly.
We both served in senior roles at SSA — one of us under a Democratic president and the other under a Republican.
thehill.com/opinion/5220...
If you are trying to follow all the Trump actions regarding Social Security, this piece is a must read. The authors explain why the actions and attacks on the program put SSA and its beneficiaries at risk. www.cbpp.org/sites/defaul...
www.cbpp.org
March 25, 2025 at 12:24 PM
If you are trying to follow all the Trump actions regarding Social Security, this piece is a must read. The authors explain why the actions and attacks on the program put SSA and its beneficiaries at risk. www.cbpp.org/sites/defaul...
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social
March 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social
The Trump Social Security Admin leaders are taking another step backwards. Lisa Rein @FedGirlWaPo reports that they plan to require millions to file for benefits in person. Plenty of rigorous research that shows new administrative obstacles reduces program participation.
March 18, 2025 at 1:09 AM
The Trump Social Security Admin leaders are taking another step backwards. Lisa Rein @FedGirlWaPo reports that they plan to require millions to file for benefits in person. Plenty of rigorous research that shows new administrative obstacles reduces program participation.
Reposted by Jack Smalligan
The Senate has passed the deeply flawed House R funding bill. It’s far from “clean”— but the single most important fact now is this: The CR has set in law full-year funding levels that make clear the Administration's impoundments & mass firings remain illegal.
Period.
Period.
The House CR is deeply problematic – but one of the very worst parts of the CR is it would force immediate cuts in the DC budget -- to police, schools, transportation & more.
The House may vote as soon as tomorrow on a federal government funding bill that contains a hidden, devastating surprise for the District of Columbia: a requirement that DC drastically slash its budget halfway through the fiscal yr, causing immediate cuts to police, schools, transportation & more.
March 14, 2025 at 10:46 PM
The Senate has passed the deeply flawed House R funding bill. It’s far from “clean”— but the single most important fact now is this: The CR has set in law full-year funding levels that make clear the Administration's impoundments & mass firings remain illegal.
Period.
Period.