Jon Baker
@jonbakerocean.bsky.social
Climate Scientist @metoffice 🌍🌊 |
Exploring AMOC and global ocean circulation |
Views are my own | https://linktr.ee/jonbakerocean
Exploring AMOC and global ocean circulation |
Views are my own | https://linktr.ee/jonbakerocean
Pinned
Jon Baker
@jonbakerocean.bsky.social
· Feb 26
🌊 Today in @nature.com: Is the AMOC on the brink of collapse?
Unlikely before 2100—but the risks are real 🚨
We find Southern Ocean winds keep this vital ocean "heat engine" running, even under extreme #climatechange. But the Pacific holds a surprise…
tinyurl.com/yt6u4e7d
Let’s explore 🧪👇
Unlikely before 2100—but the risks are real 🚨
We find Southern Ocean winds keep this vital ocean "heat engine" running, even under extreme #climatechange. But the Pacific holds a surprise…
tinyurl.com/yt6u4e7d
Let’s explore 🧪👇
Reposted by Jon Baker
Happy to see this out! Meltwater can delay future surface warming, and its interannual variations impact ocean stratification & overturning. This effect is usually absent from models.
Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)
Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)
Finally out! The outcome of a virtual workshop in Feb 2024 with modelers and observationalists to put together data and protocols to include historical changes in ice sheet/ice shelf discharge in CMIP models. Hopefully not too late for some CMIP7 runs!
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations
Abstract. Anomalous freshwater fluxes from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves are impacting the surrounding oceans, and we need to be able to account for these effects in climate m...
gmd.copernicus.org
November 8, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Happy to see this out! Meltwater can delay future surface warming, and its interannual variations impact ocean stratification & overturning. This effect is usually absent from models.
Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)
Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)
Reposted by Jon Baker
Finally out! The outcome of a virtual workshop in Feb 2024 with modelers and observationalists to put together data and protocols to include historical changes in ice sheet/ice shelf discharge in CMIP models. Hopefully not too late for some CMIP7 runs!
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations
Abstract. Anomalous freshwater fluxes from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves are impacting the surrounding oceans, and we need to be able to account for these effects in climate m...
gmd.copernicus.org
November 7, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Finally out! The outcome of a virtual workshop in Feb 2024 with modelers and observationalists to put together data and protocols to include historical changes in ice sheet/ice shelf discharge in CMIP models. Hopefully not too late for some CMIP7 runs!
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
Reposted by Jon Baker
PhD opportunity in oceanography 🌊🌊🌊
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social
More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social
More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...
www.mi.mun.ca
November 5, 2025 at 12:19 PM
PhD opportunity in oceanography 🌊🌊🌊
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social
More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social
More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...
Exciting to see our overturning pathway method applied in new research!
Song et al. use it on CMIP6 PMIP glacial models and find these pathways shape the AMOC response - confirming our earlier idealised results for glacial climates 🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Song et al. use it on CMIP6 PMIP glacial models and find these pathways shape the AMOC response - confirming our earlier idealised results for glacial climates 🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Southern Ocean influence on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation across climate states - Nature Communications
The properties of the Antarctic Bottom Water largely determine the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s depth and strength across climate states by affecting the routes via which North Atlant...
www.nature.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Exciting to see our overturning pathway method applied in new research!
Song et al. use it on CMIP6 PMIP glacial models and find these pathways shape the AMOC response - confirming our earlier idealised results for glacial climates 🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Song et al. use it on CMIP6 PMIP glacial models and find these pathways shape the AMOC response - confirming our earlier idealised results for glacial climates 🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Jon Baker
🌊 Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming
Over the past six decades, the warming of the 0-700 m Atlantic-Indian sector was 40.0 ± 5.7% faster than the Pacific sector, nearly doubling at ~44°S.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Over the past six decades, the warming of the 0-700 m Atlantic-Indian sector was 40.0 ± 5.7% faster than the Pacific sector, nearly doubling at ~44°S.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming - Nature Communications
This work highlights a sharp warming contrast within the Southern Ocean: the Atlantic-Indian sector warms faster than the Pacific due to wind-driven heat transport. The contrast is projected to persis...
www.nature.com
October 15, 2025 at 4:43 AM
🌊 Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming
Over the past six decades, the warming of the 0-700 m Atlantic-Indian sector was 40.0 ± 5.7% faster than the Pacific sector, nearly doubling at ~44°S.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Over the past six decades, the warming of the 0-700 m Atlantic-Indian sector was 40.0 ± 5.7% faster than the Pacific sector, nearly doubling at ~44°S.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Always interesting to see this come up again 😄
Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common.
We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown).
Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse.
Clarified 🌊👇
Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common.
We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown).
Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse.
Clarified 🌊👇
October 12, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Always interesting to see this come up again 😄
Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common.
We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown).
Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse.
Clarified 🌊👇
Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common.
We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown).
Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse.
Clarified 🌊👇
Reposted by Jon Baker
Physical Oceanographers! Come join us in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University.
Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊
Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊
Assistant Professor
The Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences (MEAS) at North Carolina State University seeks to fill a tenure-track faculty position at the rank of Assistant Professor in physical oceanog...
jobs.ncsu.edu
October 9, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Physical Oceanographers! Come join us in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University.
Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊
Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊
🎥 My recent ClimTip talk on our Nature paper is now online!
We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state.
Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊
We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state.
Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊
Will the AMOC Collapse? Insights from Climate Models | Jonathan Baker | ClimTip Webinar
YouTube video by ClimTip
www.youtube.com
October 8, 2025 at 11:57 AM
🎥 My recent ClimTip talk on our Nature paper is now online!
We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state.
Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊
We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state.
Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊
Reposted by Jon Baker
🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics!
We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.
This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.
🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.
This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.
🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...
esd.copernicus.org
October 2, 2025 at 10:49 AM
🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics!
We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.
This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.
🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.
This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.
🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Reposted by Jon Baker
Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social
Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper:
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper:
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...
esd.copernicus.org
October 2, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social
Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper:
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper:
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Reposted by Jon Baker
🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific - Nature Communications
A better-ventilated North Pacific could have reduced the carbon of water upwelled in the Southern Ocean, reducing outgassing and revealing a remote influence on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry in glaci...
www.nature.com
September 17, 2025 at 5:50 PM
🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Jon Baker
🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 - Nature Climate Change
The ocean carbon sink strengthened in previous warm El Niño years due to reduced CO2 outgassing in the tropics. Here the authors show that the ocean carbon sink declined in 2023 despite record-high se...
doi.org
September 2, 2025 at 11:59 AM
🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
⏰ Reminder: Tomorrow I’ll join @climtip.bsky.social to discuss the future of the AMOC.
Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical.
🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST
👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...
Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical.
🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST
👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...
September 1, 2025 at 9:51 AM
⏰ Reminder: Tomorrow I’ll join @climtip.bsky.social to discuss the future of the AMOC.
Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical.
🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST
👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...
Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical.
🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST
👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...
My comments in The Guardian about an important new study.
It shows AMOC collapse risks increase after 2100, particularly in extreme high-end scenarios, but also in a few lower ones.
We need more climate model simulations that run beyond 2100 to assess these risks properly 🌊
It shows AMOC collapse risks increase after 2100, particularly in extreme high-end scenarios, but also in a few lower ones.
We need more climate model simulations that run beyond 2100 to assess these risks properly 🌊
Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds
Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout
www.theguardian.com
August 29, 2025 at 9:12 AM
My comments in The Guardian about an important new study.
It shows AMOC collapse risks increase after 2100, particularly in extreme high-end scenarios, but also in a few lower ones.
We need more climate model simulations that run beyond 2100 to assess these risks properly 🌊
It shows AMOC collapse risks increase after 2100, particularly in extreme high-end scenarios, but also in a few lower ones.
We need more climate model simulations that run beyond 2100 to assess these risks properly 🌊
Reposted by Jon Baker
1/ Headlines in 2023 warned the AMOC – the Atlantic “conveyor belt” that warms Europe – could collapse in 2025.
New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely.
But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely.
But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature
Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.
www.nature.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
1/ Headlines in 2023 warned the AMOC – the Atlantic “conveyor belt” that warms Europe – could collapse in 2025.
New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely.
But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely.
But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Jon Baker
Last chance to submit your abstract to our OSM26 session on northern overturning and watermass transformation. Looking forward to seeing your work 🌊
Thinking about attending OSM 2026 in Glasgow? Consider submitting to our session:
Session ID: 259677
Title: HE009 – Overturning circulation and water mass transformation in the northern oceans
Topic Area: High Latitude Environments
lnkd.in/dw5nmNRF
Session ID: 259677
Title: HE009 – Overturning circulation and water mass transformation in the northern oceans
Topic Area: High Latitude Environments
lnkd.in/dw5nmNRF
Overturning circulation and water mass transformation in the northern oceans
The overturning circulation of the northern oceans – including the subpolar North Atlantic, Nordic Seas, and Arctic Ocean – plays a key role in transporting heat, freshwater, and anthropogenic carbon....
agu.confex.com
August 20, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Last chance to submit your abstract to our OSM26 session on northern overturning and watermass transformation. Looking forward to seeing your work 🌊
Reposted by Jon Baker
Advertising this PhD student position once more (deadline 30 August) workingat.nioz.nl/o/phd-positi...
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
NIOZ - PhD-position "Overturning the ocean''
The department of Ocean Systems (OCS) at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research (NIOZ) is looking for an enthusiastic and motivated PhD candidate to work on the exchange of lighter and denser
workingat.nioz.nl
August 20, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Advertising this PhD student position once more (deadline 30 August) workingat.nioz.nl/o/phd-positi...
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
🌊 The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” is crucial for global climate, but what does its future hold?
I’m excited to be speaking at the next ClimTip webinar on what our recent Nature study reveals about AMOC collapse risk, and why its future remains a critical concern.
📅 2 Sep | 14:00–15:00 CEST
I’m excited to be speaking at the next ClimTip webinar on what our recent Nature study reveals about AMOC collapse risk, and why its future remains a critical concern.
📅 2 Sep | 14:00–15:00 CEST
🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
August 19, 2025 at 3:33 PM
🌊 The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” is crucial for global climate, but what does its future hold?
I’m excited to be speaking at the next ClimTip webinar on what our recent Nature study reveals about AMOC collapse risk, and why its future remains a critical concern.
📅 2 Sep | 14:00–15:00 CEST
I’m excited to be speaking at the next ClimTip webinar on what our recent Nature study reveals about AMOC collapse risk, and why its future remains a critical concern.
📅 2 Sep | 14:00–15:00 CEST
Reposted by Jon Baker
🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
August 19, 2025 at 1:14 PM
🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
The future of the AMOC is one of the most urgent — and uncertain — questions in climate science.
In this new Met Office video, I share insights from our Nature paper on how Southern Ocean winds may help prevent an AMOC collapse as the planet warms 🎥 🌊
In this new Met Office video, I share insights from our Nature paper on how Southern Ocean winds may help prevent an AMOC collapse as the planet warms 🎥 🌊
The ocean circulation that keeps Europe warm - UK Weather - Met Office Explains
YouTube video by Met Office - UK Weather
youtu.be
July 22, 2025 at 7:03 AM
The future of the AMOC is one of the most urgent — and uncertain — questions in climate science.
In this new Met Office video, I share insights from our Nature paper on how Southern Ocean winds may help prevent an AMOC collapse as the planet warms 🎥 🌊
In this new Met Office video, I share insights from our Nature paper on how Southern Ocean winds may help prevent an AMOC collapse as the planet warms 🎥 🌊
Reposted by Jon Baker
Deep water formation decreased in the Nordic Sea during 1993-2020. This decrease was countered by an increase in deep water formation near the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge. Thus, the transport of dense overflow waters to the AMOC's lower limb remained unchanged: 🌊 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation
A less ice-covered Arctic shifts dense water formation northward, strengthening the Arctic Ocean overturning circulation.
www.science.org
July 15, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Deep water formation decreased in the Nordic Sea during 1993-2020. This decrease was countered by an increase in deep water formation near the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge. Thus, the transport of dense overflow waters to the AMOC's lower limb remained unchanged: 🌊 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Surely the earliest April Fool’s? This idea is completely bonkers!
The bold plan to save a vital ocean current with giant parachutes
Large sea anchors could be used to drag water under a bold plan to keep the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation moving – but some experts are sceptical
www.newscientist.com
July 14, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Surely the earliest April Fool’s? This idea is completely bonkers!
Agreed — it would have been great to have more time for discussion! Rahmstorf suggests a 50:50 chance of passing the AMOC tipping point within decades — but doesn’t clarify what forcings would drive that. A sixth sense for AMOC would be impressive.
Only just saw this thread from @jonbakerocean.bsky.social responding to my interview on Science in Action with @rahmstorf.bsky.social
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...
3/ There’s no disagreement on definition: 21st century AMOC “collapse” means a weakening below 6 Sv—not to zero—as now clearly stated in our paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41....
We’ve also clarified this on social media and in my EGU talk just before Stefan’s interview.
We’ve also clarified this on social media and in my EGU talk just before Stefan’s interview.
July 9, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Agreed — it would have been great to have more time for discussion! Rahmstorf suggests a 50:50 chance of passing the AMOC tipping point within decades — but doesn’t clarify what forcings would drive that. A sixth sense for AMOC would be impressive.
Reposted by Jon Baker
Only just saw this thread from @jonbakerocean.bsky.social responding to my interview on Science in Action with @rahmstorf.bsky.social
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...
3/ There’s no disagreement on definition: 21st century AMOC “collapse” means a weakening below 6 Sv—not to zero—as now clearly stated in our paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41....
We’ve also clarified this on social media and in my EGU talk just before Stefan’s interview.
We’ve also clarified this on social media and in my EGU talk just before Stefan’s interview.
July 9, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Only just saw this thread from @jonbakerocean.bsky.social responding to my interview on Science in Action with @rahmstorf.bsky.social
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...
🧵 Some recent papers I’ve co-authored — spanning Pacific Ocean heat uptake, AMOC tipping risk, and the changing global ocean 🌍🌊
July 9, 2025 at 9:39 AM
🧵 Some recent papers I’ve co-authored — spanning Pacific Ocean heat uptake, AMOC tipping risk, and the changing global ocean 🌍🌊