Jon Baker
@jonbakerocean.bsky.social
Climate Scientist @metoffice 🌍🌊 |
Exploring AMOC and global ocean circulation |
Views are my own | https://linktr.ee/jonbakerocean
Exploring AMOC and global ocean circulation |
Views are my own | https://linktr.ee/jonbakerocean
A full AMOC shutdown to 0 Sv after 2100 looks very unlikely, as Southern Ocean winds maintain a weak overturning even under extreme forcing.
A collapse below ~6 Sv is more likely than before 2100, depending on future emissions.
Even a weakened AMOC could bring major climate impacts.
A collapse below ~6 Sv is more likely than before 2100, depending on future emissions.
Even a weakened AMOC could bring major climate impacts.
October 14, 2025 at 9:03 AM
A full AMOC shutdown to 0 Sv after 2100 looks very unlikely, as Southern Ocean winds maintain a weak overturning even under extreme forcing.
A collapse below ~6 Sv is more likely than before 2100, depending on future emissions.
Even a weakened AMOC could bring major climate impacts.
A collapse below ~6 Sv is more likely than before 2100, depending on future emissions.
Even a weakened AMOC could bring major climate impacts.
Across all SSPs, every CMIP6 model remains above 6 Sv (though a few come close) throughout this century — so no AMOC collapse occurs, by either the ~6 Sv “near-shutdown” or 0 Sv “full-shutdown” definitions
October 13, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Across all SSPs, every CMIP6 model remains above 6 Sv (though a few come close) throughout this century — so no AMOC collapse occurs, by either the ~6 Sv “near-shutdown” or 0 Sv “full-shutdown” definitions
To clarify: by real-world forcing I mean any of the CMIP6 SSP scenarios — even the most extreme, SSP585. These AMOC time series are documented in Weijer et al., 2020 and Baker et al., 2023.
October 13, 2025 at 7:23 AM
To clarify: by real-world forcing I mean any of the CMIP6 SSP scenarios — even the most extreme, SSP585. These AMOC time series are documented in Weijer et al., 2020 and Baker et al., 2023.