John Pollock
@johnpollock.bsky.social
Communications for Chatham House (@chathamhouse.org) | Writer @theworldtoday.org | Think tanks and higher education | Posts on international affairs/security | China | Views my own.
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John Pollock
@johnpollock.bsky.social
· Nov 24
How Beijing is closing surveillance gaps in the South China Sea
The discovery of a new radar system on China’s Triton Island military base shows that Beijing is rapidly developing its intelligence capacities in contested waters, write John Pollock and Damien Symon...
www.chathamhouse.org
In 2023 the world thought China was building a 600-metre long airstrip on Triton Island. Maxar images 📸 reveal however the PLA has instead been upgrading its signals intelligence facilities.
I recently wrote for Chatham House (@theworldtoday.bsky.social) on 🇨🇳's activities in the South China Sea.
I recently wrote for Chatham House (@theworldtoday.bsky.social) on 🇨🇳's activities in the South China Sea.
Reposted by John Pollock
A test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese ships watching the test, highlights the growing tensions between China and India in the Indian Ocean.
An imminent Indian ballistic missile test highlights escalation risks in the Indian Ocean
A possible test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese research ships, highlights how deterrence dynamics among nuclear-armed states are making the wider Indian Ocean re...
www.chathamhouse.org
December 19, 2025 at 6:00 PM
A test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese ships watching the test, highlights the growing tensions between China and India in the Indian Ocean.
Reposted by John Pollock
Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt will try to accommodate Donald Trump on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey — and focus on reviving its struggling economy.
Egypt’s foreign policy will remain too little, too late in 2026
Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt is likely to accommodate Trump’s preferences on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey and focusing on reviving its struggling economy.
www.chathamhouse.org
December 19, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt will try to accommodate Donald Trump on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey — and focus on reviving its struggling economy.
The invasion of Iraq ensured that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons: PM office source
https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/defense/japan-needs-to-possess-nuclear-weapons-pm-office-source
https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/defense/japan-needs-to-possess-nuclear-weapons-pm-office-source
Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons: PM office source
Official also acknowledges such a move is unrealistic
asia.nikkei.com
December 18, 2025 at 8:12 PM
The invasion of Iraq ensured that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Anyone who knows anything about Polish history and Russia’s incredibly violent contribution to it knows that this is a stupid thing to write.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
What are you even talking about! I am saying it is a delusional fantasy to suggest Russia is going to invade European countries like Poland, Germany or indeed the UK, which is the insane drivel currently being promoted in support of a disastrous arms race.
December 16, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Anyone who knows anything about Polish history and Russia’s incredibly violent contribution to it knows that this is a stupid thing to write.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
Reposted by John Pollock
Despite the danger of a new war with Israel, and a deteriorating strategic environment following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah is still rejecting any compromise.
Only Iran can disarm Hezbollah
Weapons underpin the group’s alliance with Tehran and its political power in Lebanon. Any new US–Iran nuclear deal must require Tehran to compel Hezbollah to disarm.
www.chathamhouse.org
December 16, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Despite the danger of a new war with Israel, and a deteriorating strategic environment following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah is still rejecting any compromise.
Reposted by John Pollock
🇺🇦 | The Donetsk towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are key parts of Ukraine's ‘fortress belt’. Were they to fall to Russia, or to be ceded, Ukraine's security would be at risk.
@samirpuri.bsky.social on why the Donbas region matters to Ukraine — and why Russia wants it⤵️
@samirpuri.bsky.social on why the Donbas region matters to Ukraine — and why Russia wants it⤵️
The Donbas region remains an intractable issue in talks between Russia and Ukraine
Europe should look to history to prepare for the realities of long-term occupation of Ukrainian territory.
www.chathamhouse.org
December 10, 2025 at 11:35 AM
🇺🇦 | The Donetsk towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are key parts of Ukraine's ‘fortress belt’. Were they to fall to Russia, or to be ceded, Ukraine's security would be at risk.
@samirpuri.bsky.social on why the Donbas region matters to Ukraine — and why Russia wants it⤵️
@samirpuri.bsky.social on why the Donbas region matters to Ukraine — and why Russia wants it⤵️
Reposted by John Pollock
🇨🇳 | A jump in trade with non-US markets, including the EU and Global South countries, has helped Beijing shrug off the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs.
Read James Kynge's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
Read James Kynge's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
China’s record $1 trillion-plus trade surplus shows the renminbi should be allowed to appreciate
China’s surging high-tech competitiveness, weak appetite for imports and undervalued renminbi have fuelled the huge surplus – but the trend is unsustainable.
www.chathamhouse.org
December 10, 2025 at 11:04 AM
🇨🇳 | A jump in trade with non-US markets, including the EU and Global South countries, has helped Beijing shrug off the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs.
Read James Kynge's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
Read James Kynge's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
Fair to say that going from quotes like this, the US National Security Strategy comes far more from JD Vance’s worldview than Elbridge Colby’s ‘prioritise China’ outlook.
It’s bad for Europe, bad for the transatlantic relationship and above all bad for America’s position in the world.
It’s bad for Europe, bad for the transatlantic relationship and above all bad for America’s position in the world.
The new US National Security Strategy makes for scary reading. I wrote about how the US wants to support forces in Europe to tear itself apart back in November 2024, and last May. This NSS confirms that's exactly the US objective for Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Fair to say that going from quotes like this, the US National Security Strategy comes far more from JD Vance’s worldview than Elbridge Colby’s ‘prioritise China’ outlook.
It’s bad for Europe, bad for the transatlantic relationship and above all bad for America’s position in the world.
It’s bad for Europe, bad for the transatlantic relationship and above all bad for America’s position in the world.
Reposted by John Pollock
Amid rising tensions over Tigray and Ethiopia’s drive to access the Red Sea, de-escalation is urgently needed to prevent Ethiopia and Eritrea from going to war.
De-escalation is needed to prevent Ethiopia and Eritrea from going to war
Preventive diplomacy is vital to stop another devastating war in the Horn of Africa amid rising tensions over Tigray and Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access.
www.chathamhouse.org
November 28, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Amid rising tensions over Tigray and Ethiopia’s drive to access the Red Sea, de-escalation is urgently needed to prevent Ethiopia and Eritrea from going to war.
Reposted by John Pollock
The US, Europe and Japan need to recognize that China poses a far greater challenge than the Soviet Union — and coordinate a response to the rise of an authoritarian superpower.
China’s ‘smart authoritarianism’ has upended ideas about autocracies’ limitations. The West must cooperate to respond
Beijing has consistently defied expectations to overcome the ‘King’s dilemma’ – maintaining control while fostering innovation. It presents a historic challenge.
www.chathamhouse.org
November 27, 2025 at 6:40 PM
The US, Europe and Japan need to recognize that China poses a far greater challenge than the Soviet Union — and coordinate a response to the rise of an authoritarian superpower.
Reposted by John Pollock
Although the promise of Rafale jets for Ukraine has dominated coverage, Dassault is behind on deliveries to India and Indonesia and no jets will come from the French Air Force.
Ukraine’s arms deal with France faces major hurdles before it can be realized
Although the deal sends a powerful political signal, it will change very little on the ground for Ukraine in the short term.
www.chathamhouse.org
November 24, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Although the promise of Rafale jets for Ukraine has dominated coverage, Dassault is behind on deliveries to India and Indonesia and no jets will come from the French Air Force.
Reposted by John Pollock
The sheer scale of the reshuffle at the top of the People's Liberation Army once again underscores Xi Jinping’s unchallenged authority at the height of China’s political hierarchy.
China’s leaders’ meeting confirms Xi’s authority and shows technological self-reliance is now the priority
At the Fourth Plenum of the Communist Party of China’s leadership, President Xi Jinping outlined a bold shift in China’s economic development model under its next Five-Year Plan.
www.chathamhouse.org
October 30, 2025 at 9:20 AM
The sheer scale of the reshuffle at the top of the People's Liberation Army once again underscores Xi Jinping’s unchallenged authority at the height of China’s political hierarchy.
My latest for @chathamhouse.org’s international affairs magazine.
Using previously unseen Maxar satellite images we document Israel’s air campaign against the Houthis. The TLDR is that Israel won’t tolerate Iran building up the Houthis into a Hezbollah-like force.
Using previously unseen Maxar satellite images we document Israel’s air campaign against the Houthis. The TLDR is that Israel won’t tolerate Iran building up the Houthis into a Hezbollah-like force.
@johnpollock.bsky.social & @detresfa.bsky.social's latest story reveals satellite images of the damage caused by Israeli airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen before the recent pause.
Despite the Gaza ceasefire, the Israel–Houthi conflict may resume.
www.chathamhouse.org/publications...
Despite the Gaza ceasefire, the Israel–Houthi conflict may resume.
www.chathamhouse.org/publications...
Despite the Gaza ceasefire, the Israel–Houthi conflict may resume
Satellite images reveal some of the damage of Israel’s recent airstrikes against Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen before the recent pause in hostilities. But analysis suggests that although the Iran-b...
www.chathamhouse.org
October 26, 2025 at 8:18 AM
My latest for @chathamhouse.org’s international affairs magazine.
Using previously unseen Maxar satellite images we document Israel’s air campaign against the Houthis. The TLDR is that Israel won’t tolerate Iran building up the Houthis into a Hezbollah-like force.
Using previously unseen Maxar satellite images we document Israel’s air campaign against the Houthis. The TLDR is that Israel won’t tolerate Iran building up the Houthis into a Hezbollah-like force.
Despite the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel will not tolerate Iran sending weapons to Yemen and turning the Houthis into the next Hezbollah.
I and my co-author write for @theworldtoday.org documenting Israel's air campaign against the Houthis in the Red Sea with Maxar images📸 and what may come next.
I and my co-author write for @theworldtoday.org documenting Israel's air campaign against the Houthis in the Red Sea with Maxar images📸 and what may come next.
Despite the Gaza ceasefire, the Israel–Houthi conflict may resume
Satellite images reveal some of the damage of Israel’s recent airstrikes against Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen before the recent pause in hostilities. But analysis suggests that although the Iran-b...
www.chathamhouse.org
October 24, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Despite the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel will not tolerate Iran sending weapons to Yemen and turning the Houthis into the next Hezbollah.
I and my co-author write for @theworldtoday.org documenting Israel's air campaign against the Houthis in the Red Sea with Maxar images📸 and what may come next.
I and my co-author write for @theworldtoday.org documenting Israel's air campaign against the Houthis in the Red Sea with Maxar images📸 and what may come next.
China purges nine top commanders in People’s Liberation Army
China purges nine top commanders in People’s Liberation Army
Xi Jinping’s targets in anti-corruption drive include PLA’s No 2 General He Weidong
www.ft.com
October 18, 2025 at 7:24 AM
China purges nine top commanders in People’s Liberation Army
Reposted by John Pollock
In the coming days Egypt will become a crucial player in Gaza. Cairo will be vital in facilitating the flow of aid into the territory and Egyptian troops could potentially deploy as peacekeepers.
Egypt is crucial to Trump’s Gaza plan – but fears a security vacuum after an Israeli withdrawal
Egypt wants to lock in a long-term commitment from other countries to ensure it is not left to secure Gaza alone.
www.chathamhouse.org
October 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
In the coming days Egypt will become a crucial player in Gaza. Cairo will be vital in facilitating the flow of aid into the territory and Egyptian troops could potentially deploy as peacekeepers.
Reposted by John Pollock
"What some powerful members of the Trump administration want is regime change, and they want it as cheaply as possible."
Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com on the Trump administration's mobilisation of the US military against Venezuela ⬇️
Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com on the Trump administration's mobilisation of the US military against Venezuela ⬇️
Opinion | Trump Isn’t Busting Drug Cartels. He’s Settling Scores.
www.nytimes.com
October 1, 2025 at 9:00 AM
"What some powerful members of the Trump administration want is regime change, and they want it as cheaply as possible."
Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com on the Trump administration's mobilisation of the US military against Venezuela ⬇️
Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com on the Trump administration's mobilisation of the US military against Venezuela ⬇️
At this point any US military aid or support for Europe and Ukraine should be viewed as a bonus under this president.
Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.
Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.
Donald Trump’s apparent shift in support towards Ukraine is more likely to have been washing his hands of the war. If so, Ukraine and its European allies will have to face Russia alone
Fixing the rot in Ukraine
Things are going wrong away from the front line. Europe needs to help
econ.st
September 24, 2025 at 7:14 PM
At this point any US military aid or support for Europe and Ukraine should be viewed as a bonus under this president.
Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.
Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.
Reposted by John Pollock
In the last six years, the Gulf Arab states have been attacked by both Israel and by Iran. In both instances, Washington did not protect them or respond militarily.
Israel’s attack on Qatar shows why it’s time for a Gulf defence union
Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states would be better served by integrating their defences than relying on other external partners.
www.chathamhouse.org
September 22, 2025 at 8:40 AM
In the last six years, the Gulf Arab states have been attacked by both Israel and by Iran. In both instances, Washington did not protect them or respond militarily.
The consistency with which Donald Trump makes excuses for Vladimir Putin is truly beyond alarming at this point.
The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.
The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.
NATO leaders have announced a new initiative, Eastern Sentry, to defend the airspace of frontline states. But the U.S. response has been underwhelming—nonexistent, really. Trump has repeatedly suggested that the incursion of Russian drones into Poland may have been accidental. on.cfr.org/4mwpUbX
Jets Over Estonia Are Putin’s Latest Check of U.S. and NATO Resolve
NATO chased away the jets a week after shooting down Russian drones in Poland. These incidents add to a troubling trend.
on.cfr.org
September 20, 2025 at 11:27 AM
The consistency with which Donald Trump makes excuses for Vladimir Putin is truly beyond alarming at this point.
The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.
The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.
Enough is enough. After the drone incursion into Poland deterrence needs to be re-established with the Russians.
The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.
The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.
September 19, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Enough is enough. After the drone incursion into Poland deterrence needs to be re-established with the Russians.
The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.
The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.
Reposted by John Pollock
At an emergency summit in Doha, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.
Egypt now sees Israel as an imminent threat
At an emergency summit in Doha, President Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.
www.chathamhouse.org
September 17, 2025 at 1:30 PM
At an emergency summit in Doha, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.
You love to see it and a packed edition too as we head into the Autumn 🍂.
Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇
Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇
Hot off the press and into the hands of our editor @lycidas.bsky.social — the new issue of our international affairs magazine @theworldtoday.org has arrived at Chatham House.
Read more about the Autumn issue of the magazine via the link below⤵️
Read more about the Autumn issue of the magazine via the link below⤵️
September 15, 2025 at 1:26 PM
You love to see it and a packed edition too as we head into the Autumn 🍂.
Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇
Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇
Reposted by John Pollock
A Russian naval base, the growing Iranian presence in Port Sudan and the risk posed by terrorist groups seeking a haven are all reasons why Western governments should give a higher priority to Sudan.
Why ending the war in Sudan should be a higher priority for the West
As world leaders gather for the UN General Assembly, now is the time to put the focus back on Sudan and build international support for ending the war.
www.chathamhouse.org
September 15, 2025 at 6:40 AM
A Russian naval base, the growing Iranian presence in Port Sudan and the risk posed by terrorist groups seeking a haven are all reasons why Western governments should give a higher priority to Sudan.