John Pollock
@johnpollock.bsky.social
Communications for Chatham House (@chathamhouse.org) | Writer @theworldtoday.org | Think tanks and higher education | Posts on international affairs/security | China | Views my own.
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John Pollock
@johnpollock.bsky.social
· Nov 24
How Beijing is closing surveillance gaps in the South China Sea
The discovery of a new radar system on China’s Triton Island military base shows that Beijing is rapidly developing its intelligence capacities in contested waters, write John Pollock and Damien Symon...
www.chathamhouse.org
In 2023 the world thought China was building a 600-metre long airstrip on Triton Island. Maxar images 📸 reveal however the PLA has instead been upgrading its signals intelligence facilities.
I recently wrote for Chatham House (@theworldtoday.bsky.social) on 🇨🇳's activities in the South China Sea.
I recently wrote for Chatham House (@theworldtoday.bsky.social) on 🇨🇳's activities in the South China Sea.
Reposted by John Pollock
Iran is confronting a strategic reality it has never faced before – a simultaneous crisis of domestic legitimacy and a threat of external attack so severe that regime survival can no longer be taken for granted.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️
War, a Trump-imposed deal or internal regime collapse: for Tehran, none of the options are good | Sanam Vakil
Iran’s leaders now face unprecedented peril. The regime has lost its footing, and the global mechanisms to avoid conflict no longer work, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House
www.theguardian.com
February 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Iran is confronting a strategic reality it has never faced before – a simultaneous crisis of domestic legitimacy and a threat of external attack so severe that regime survival can no longer be taken for granted.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️
Reposted by John Pollock
"The UK should be engaging with China, but should be doing so in a structured way, avoiding the red flag areas relating to issues of national security."
@jkynge.bsky.social on Keir Starmer's visit to China and the opportunities and challenges in engaging with Beijing, via BBC News ⤵️
@jkynge.bsky.social on Keir Starmer's visit to China and the opportunities and challenges in engaging with Beijing, via BBC News ⤵️
January 28, 2026 at 9:30 PM
"The UK should be engaging with China, but should be doing so in a structured way, avoiding the red flag areas relating to issues of national security."
@jkynge.bsky.social on Keir Starmer's visit to China and the opportunities and challenges in engaging with Beijing, via BBC News ⤵️
@jkynge.bsky.social on Keir Starmer's visit to China and the opportunities and challenges in engaging with Beijing, via BBC News ⤵️
Reposted by John Pollock
"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."
@jkynge.bsky.social on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
@jkynge.bsky.social on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
January 23, 2026 at 2:02 PM
"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."
@jkynge.bsky.social on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
@jkynge.bsky.social on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
Reposted by John Pollock
"This year will be the most consequential year for the Islamic Republic. There will either be transition from within or forced transition."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️
January 22, 2026 at 8:30 PM
"This year will be the most consequential year for the Islamic Republic. There will either be transition from within or forced transition."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️
The simple fact is that if Joe Biden had delivered a speech at Davos as rambling and as disjointed as what we saw Trump deliver there would have been uproar in the US and calls to remove him from office.
Instead news organisations feel compelled to explain away what we saw and imply a strategy.
Instead news organisations feel compelled to explain away what we saw and imply a strategy.
In his mission to acquire Greenland, Donald Trump deployed his trademark bargaining strategy: Take the maximalist position — in this case the barely veiled threat of using military force — then dial back
Trump Finds His Greenland Framework and Pulls Back Threats
The president retreats from use of military force or tariffs.
bloom.bg
January 22, 2026 at 10:23 AM
The simple fact is that if Joe Biden had delivered a speech at Davos as rambling and as disjointed as what we saw Trump deliver there would have been uproar in the US and calls to remove him from office.
Instead news organisations feel compelled to explain away what we saw and imply a strategy.
Instead news organisations feel compelled to explain away what we saw and imply a strategy.
The strong ‘abusive husband’ energy emanating from the United States towards Europe is both depressing and also unsurprising.
And just like an abusive spouse the shock of Europe (and Canada) leaving the US will mean the abuse and vitriol will get worse with little to no self-reflection.
And just like an abusive spouse the shock of Europe (and Canada) leaving the US will mean the abuse and vitriol will get worse with little to no self-reflection.
January 22, 2026 at 7:59 AM
The strong ‘abusive husband’ energy emanating from the United States towards Europe is both depressing and also unsurprising.
And just like an abusive spouse the shock of Europe (and Canada) leaving the US will mean the abuse and vitriol will get worse with little to no self-reflection.
And just like an abusive spouse the shock of Europe (and Canada) leaving the US will mean the abuse and vitriol will get worse with little to no self-reflection.
Reposted by John Pollock
What happens next in the Yellow Sea will speak volumes about China’s true intentions towards South Korea
China is testing South Korea in the Yellow Sea
Could it become the next big maritime flashpoint?
econ.st
January 19, 2026 at 7:20 AM
What happens next in the Yellow Sea will speak volumes about China’s true intentions towards South Korea
Reposted by John Pollock
"We are witnessing the slow downfall, evolution, perhaps collapse of the Islamic Republic. There are a thousand ways this could evolve."
Sanam Vakil joined Francine Lacqua to discuss the protests in Iran and their impact on the future of the Islamic Republic, via @bloomberg.com ⤵️
Sanam Vakil joined Francine Lacqua to discuss the protests in Iran and their impact on the future of the Islamic Republic, via @bloomberg.com ⤵️
January 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM
"We are witnessing the slow downfall, evolution, perhaps collapse of the Islamic Republic. There are a thousand ways this could evolve."
Sanam Vakil joined Francine Lacqua to discuss the protests in Iran and their impact on the future of the Islamic Republic, via @bloomberg.com ⤵️
Sanam Vakil joined Francine Lacqua to discuss the protests in Iran and their impact on the future of the Islamic Republic, via @bloomberg.com ⤵️
1.2 million Russian casualties in Ukraine overall.
British intelligence reported that in 2025 Russia lost 415,000 military personnel killed and wounded.
January 15, 2026 at 9:31 AM
1.2 million Russian casualties in Ukraine overall.
Reposted by John Pollock
"Without strong and coordinated support from the US, it's hard to see how protestors inside Iran can brave the repression which has been extraordinary."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️
January 12, 2026 at 1:00 PM
"Without strong and coordinated support from the US, it's hard to see how protestors inside Iran can brave the repression which has been extraordinary."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️
Reposted by John Pollock
"These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
January 10, 2026 at 6:15 PM
"These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
Reposted by John Pollock
"The Iranian state is reaching a dead-end of its own. There's not much they can do besides brutality."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic of Iran amid widespread protests, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic of Iran amid widespread protests, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social ⤵️
January 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM
"The Iranian state is reaching a dead-end of its own. There's not much they can do besides brutality."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic of Iran amid widespread protests, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic of Iran amid widespread protests, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social ⤵️
Reposted by John Pollock
The ouster of Nicolás Maduro suggests that Washington’s priority is leverage rather than liberation, and compliance rather than collapse. For the Iranian people, that is a bleak prospect.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on what events in Venezuela mean for Iran, via @time.com⤵️
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on what events in Venezuela mean for Iran, via @time.com⤵️
The Danger of the Maduro Model for Iran
The country should not expect salvation from abroad, but define what kind of political future it wants, writes Sanam Vakil.
time.com
January 8, 2026 at 1:30 PM
The ouster of Nicolás Maduro suggests that Washington’s priority is leverage rather than liberation, and compliance rather than collapse. For the Iranian people, that is a bleak prospect.
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on what events in Venezuela mean for Iran, via @time.com⤵️
Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on what events in Venezuela mean for Iran, via @time.com⤵️
Reposted by John Pollock
"The protests speak to the continued legitimacy crisis that the Islamic Republic faces. The economic dynamics in the country are devastating."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the Today programme to discuss the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC Radio 4.
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the Today programme to discuss the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC Radio 4.
January 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM
"The protests speak to the continued legitimacy crisis that the Islamic Republic faces. The economic dynamics in the country are devastating."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the Today programme to discuss the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC Radio 4.
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the Today programme to discuss the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC Radio 4.
Reposted by John Pollock
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that an attack on Greenland would end NATO. This is not an exaggeration.
US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO’s future. But European countries are not helpless
US threats to annex Greenland following the attack on Venezuela should be taken seriously. European countries have important leverage they should be prepared to use.
www.chathamhouse.org
January 7, 2026 at 6:00 AM
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that an attack on Greenland would end NATO. This is not an exaggeration.
Reposted by John Pollock
After a decade of joint military intervention, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates now find themselves on opposing sides in Yemen.
Oman, eastern Yemen, and the fragile geometry of neutrality
Yemen’s neighbour has learned the painful lesson that neutrality in the conflict next door offers no immunity, only the hope of containment.
www.chathamhouse.org
January 6, 2026 at 7:00 PM
After a decade of joint military intervention, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates now find themselves on opposing sides in Yemen.
Reposted by John Pollock
"The Iranian government led by Masoud Pezeshkian is looking to placate popular concerns, get strikers in urban areas off the streets and buy some time as Iran is facing multiple threats."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC News ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC News ⤵️
January 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM
"The Iranian government led by Masoud Pezeshkian is looking to placate popular concerns, get strikers in urban areas off the streets and buy some time as Iran is facing multiple threats."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC News ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC News ⤵️
If this is confirmed, then the capture of Nicolás Maduro is the most significant operation conducted by US special forces since the raid that killed Bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011.
“Donald Trump said the US had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and flown him out of the country after weeks of tension between the two nations”
Venezuela accuses US of attacking Caracas ft.trib.al/lWryM6x
January 3, 2026 at 9:56 AM
If this is confirmed, then the capture of Nicolás Maduro is the most significant operation conducted by US special forces since the raid that killed Bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011.
Reposted by John Pollock
Explosions hit Venezuelan capital Caracas ft.trib.al/OC2sZmM
Explosions hit Venezuelan capital Caracas
Residents report loud blasts and aircraft flying over the city
ft.trib.al
January 3, 2026 at 7:44 AM
Explosions hit Venezuelan capital Caracas ft.trib.al/OC2sZmM
Reposted by John Pollock
"Iranians have held deep seated grievances against the system for many decades. They've been protesting consistently since 2009."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest round of anti-government protests sweeping across Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest round of anti-government protests sweeping across Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
January 2, 2026 at 4:40 PM
"Iranians have held deep seated grievances against the system for many decades. They've been protesting consistently since 2009."
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest round of anti-government protests sweeping across Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest round of anti-government protests sweeping across Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
My head says the regime in Iran will find a way to survive these protests, my heart hopes that this time it will finally be the end of the Islamic Republic.
NEW: Protests in Iran have expanded geographically and demographically since December 28, and many of the recent protests adopted an explicitly anti-regime tone. 🧵(1/5)
Iran Update, December 30, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate12...
Iran Update, December 30, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate12...
January 1, 2026 at 1:05 PM
My head says the regime in Iran will find a way to survive these protests, my heart hopes that this time it will finally be the end of the Islamic Republic.
Reposted by John Pollock
A test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese ships watching the test, highlights the growing tensions between China and India in the Indian Ocean.
An imminent Indian ballistic missile test highlights escalation risks in the Indian Ocean
A possible test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese research ships, highlights how deterrence dynamics among nuclear-armed states are making the wider Indian Ocean re...
www.chathamhouse.org
December 19, 2025 at 6:00 PM
A test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese ships watching the test, highlights the growing tensions between China and India in the Indian Ocean.
Reposted by John Pollock
Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt will try to accommodate Donald Trump on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey — and focus on reviving its struggling economy.
Egypt’s foreign policy will remain too little, too late in 2026
Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt is likely to accommodate Trump’s preferences on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey and focusing on reviving its struggling economy.
www.chathamhouse.org
December 19, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt will try to accommodate Donald Trump on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey — and focus on reviving its struggling economy.
The invasion of Iraq ensured that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons: PM office source
https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/defense/japan-needs-to-possess-nuclear-weapons-pm-office-source
https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/defense/japan-needs-to-possess-nuclear-weapons-pm-office-source
Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons: PM office source
Official also acknowledges such a move is unrealistic
asia.nikkei.com
December 18, 2025 at 8:12 PM
The invasion of Iraq ensured that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.
Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
Anyone who knows anything about Polish history and Russia’s incredibly violent contribution to it knows that this is a stupid thing to write.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
What are you even talking about! I am saying it is a delusional fantasy to suggest Russia is going to invade European countries like Poland, Germany or indeed the UK, which is the insane drivel currently being promoted in support of a disastrous arms race.
December 16, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Anyone who knows anything about Polish history and Russia’s incredibly violent contribution to it knows that this is a stupid thing to write.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.