John Barrdear
@johnbarrdear.bsky.social
I'm an economist. I work at the Bank of England, where I think about monetary policy and forecasting. All opinions, especially stupid ones, are my own.
We can argue about what name to give it, and who might or might not be in it, but I think that Nate has identified a clear group here:
1) Small tent-ism.
2) Appeals to authority through credentialism.
3) A tendency to catastrophising.
1) Small tent-ism.
2) Appeals to authority through credentialism.
3) A tendency to catastrophising.
September 6, 2025 at 1:41 PM
We can argue about what name to give it, and who might or might not be in it, but I think that Nate has identified a clear group here:
1) Small tent-ism.
2) Appeals to authority through credentialism.
3) A tendency to catastrophising.
1) Small tent-ism.
2) Appeals to authority through credentialism.
3) A tendency to catastrophising.
Hey @t0nyyates.bsky.social, this is the paper I was referring to earlier today: www.jstor.org/stable/3648627
Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing on JSTOR
Michael Woodford, Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 70, No. 4 (Oct., 2003), pp. 861-886
www.jstor.org
May 12, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Hey @t0nyyates.bsky.social, this is the paper I was referring to earlier today: www.jstor.org/stable/3648627
A fantastic thread and incredibly useful set of estimates.
We've updated our @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff estimates in light of yesterday's announcement of a 90-day 10% "reciprocal" tariff and a 125% China tariff.
Some key takeaways...
1/7
Some key takeaways...
1/7
April 10, 2025 at 3:27 PM
A fantastic thread and incredibly useful set of estimates.
Reposted by John Barrdear
"I don't know anyone who is confident of their forecast" -- Powell
March 19, 2025 at 7:11 PM
"I don't know anyone who is confident of their forecast" -- Powell
Reposted by John Barrdear
A £1.1 billion investment in the British Library is going ahead. Big expansion in an area of London that is rapidly becoming a cultural and learning centre.
British Library's huge £1.1 billion extension goes ahead
The scheme will create new facilities for the library and provide 600,000 sq ft of new commercial space for life sciences occupiers
www.standard.co.uk
March 19, 2025 at 2:17 PM
A £1.1 billion investment in the British Library is going ahead. Big expansion in an area of London that is rapidly becoming a cultural and learning centre.
Reposted by John Barrdear
Having your currency best charted with a log-scale is just such an awful place to be.
March 19, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Having your currency best charted with a log-scale is just such an awful place to be.
Reposted by John Barrdear
The @economist.com on Europe’s task to preserve what’s left of the West. Remarkably strong words.
March 15, 2025 at 8:27 AM
The @economist.com on Europe’s task to preserve what’s left of the West. Remarkably strong words.
A great thread on why US social security numbers are not, and cannot act as, unique identifiers.
Musk has no technical skills whatsoever, but he wants to appear smart. So he takes bits of information like this, told to him by junior engineers, and regurgitates it to appear smart.
Musk did this with the Twitter stack and Twitter's senior architects called him out publicly, then he fired them.
Musk did this with the Twitter stack and Twitter's senior architects called him out publicly, then he fired them.
One of Musk's defining qualities is that he is a conspiracy theorist when it comes to government. He will see some ambiguous information or be presented with an easily debunked tale and he immediately believes the worst.
February 12, 2025 at 8:41 AM
A great thread on why US social security numbers are not, and cannot act as, unique identifiers.
Imagine going back to early 2013, less than a month into Obama’s second term, to tell people that a perfectly valid headline, 12 years hence, would be “President Trump launches trade war against Canada. Crypto falls across the board.”
February 3, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Imagine going back to early 2013, less than a month into Obama’s second term, to tell people that a perfectly valid headline, 12 years hence, would be “President Trump launches trade war against Canada. Crypto falls across the board.”
Reposted by John Barrdear
Leopard: I will eat your face
Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating
Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp
Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating
Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp
J.P. Morgan econs on Trump’s latest are “increasingly concerned that the policy mix may tilt into an unintentionally far less business-friendly stance. The sustained 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico set to start this weekend is materially different than the tariff increases built into our baseline.”
February 1, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Leopard: I will eat your face
Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating
Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp
Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating
Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp
TIL that there is a trans, Guido Fawkes mask-wearing, vegan, effective altruist, rationalist splinter group with a particular interest in AI Risk researchers that has descended into a weird murder cult across America.
x.com/aella_girl/s...
x.com/aella_girl/s...
x.com
x.com
January 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
TIL that there is a trans, Guido Fawkes mask-wearing, vegan, effective altruist, rationalist splinter group with a particular interest in AI Risk researchers that has descended into a weird murder cult across America.
x.com/aella_girl/s...
x.com/aella_girl/s...
If I understand things correctly, with both the PM and CX both throwing their weight behind a third runway for Heathrow, the "ambitious" goal is for planning permission to be granted "by the end of this parliament" (i.e. in around four years). Is that right?
January 29, 2025 at 2:10 PM
If I understand things correctly, with both the PM and CX both throwing their weight behind a third runway for Heathrow, the "ambitious" goal is for planning permission to be granted "by the end of this parliament" (i.e. in around four years). Is that right?
From a welfare perspective, Deepseek is amazing. It delivers a productivity boost over existing LLMs and being OSS it immediately gets universal dissemination. That is positive for GDP, even if it is negative for the ability of Nvidia or commercial operators of LLMs to cream off some economic rent.
January 28, 2025 at 8:54 AM
From a welfare perspective, Deepseek is amazing. It delivers a productivity boost over existing LLMs and being OSS it immediately gets universal dissemination. That is positive for GDP, even if it is negative for the ability of Nvidia or commercial operators of LLMs to cream off some economic rent.
This, from two Sams (@samdumitriu.bsky.social and @sambowman.co), is excellent: www.sambowman.co/p/growth-is-...
Growth is a policy choice
So here are some pro-growth policies to choose from
www.sambowman.co
January 22, 2025 at 1:33 PM
This, from two Sams (@samdumitriu.bsky.social and @sambowman.co), is excellent: www.sambowman.co/p/growth-is-...
Wait, *what*?
“It is a criminal offence [under the Offences against the Person Act, introduced in 1861] to have an abortion after 24 weeks or without approval from two doctors”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
“It is a criminal offence [under the Offences against the Person Act, introduced in 1861] to have an abortion after 24 weeks or without approval from two doctors”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
‘Unprecedented’ rise in abortion prosecutions prompts call for law change from medical leaders
Statement from 30 groups including BMA and royal colleges says current law is causing “trauma and cruelty”
www.theguardian.com
January 12, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Wait, *what*?
“It is a criminal offence [under the Offences against the Person Act, introduced in 1861] to have an abortion after 24 weeks or without approval from two doctors”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
“It is a criminal offence [under the Offences against the Person Act, introduced in 1861] to have an abortion after 24 weeks or without approval from two doctors”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
WhatsApp wins legal victory against NSO Group in Pegasus hacking case on.ft.com/49PYMQs
Common sense prevails.
Common sense prevails.
WhatsApp wins legal victory against NSO Group in Pegasus hacking case
Judge finds no merit in arguments made by Israeli spyware manufacturer
on.ft.com
December 21, 2024 at 11:34 AM
WhatsApp wins legal victory against NSO Group in Pegasus hacking case on.ft.com/49PYMQs
Common sense prevails.
Common sense prevails.
🔥
Ambition.
What is the difference between microeconomic theory and macroeconomic theory?
December 19, 2024 at 10:35 PM
🔥
While I’m talking about information and its flow being the bedrock of state capacity, the ONS is criminally underfunded and physically placed in entirely the wrong location.
You laugh, but the inability to combine records across, or even within, major public services is a significant drag on the government’s ability to actually deliver those services.
December 14, 2024 at 9:13 AM
While I’m talking about information and its flow being the bedrock of state capacity, the ONS is criminally underfunded and physically placed in entirely the wrong location.
This is a difficult topic with a variety of strongly-held views, but this strikes me as sensible policy.
NEW: Health secretary Wes Streeting announces govt is permanently banning puberty blockers for under-18s with gender dysphoria from Jan 2025
December 11, 2024 at 2:08 PM
This is a difficult topic with a variety of strongly-held views, but this strikes me as sensible policy.
I’d have gone with WE ARE QUORATE, myself.
December 4, 2024 at 5:54 PM
I’d have gone with WE ARE QUORATE, myself.
Reposted by John Barrdear
This is such a damning take:
November 26, 2024 at 7:04 AM
This is such a damning take:
This does seem directionally correct.
I did it! I wrote up my Posting Middle Classes Theory, and tried to explain why I think Threads failed where Bluesky succeeded: youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/down-in-th... (free to read)
November 22, 2024 at 12:21 PM
This does seem directionally correct.