John Alty
@johnalty1.bsky.social
Ex - UK Civil servant; now at LSE; Trustee Director at Chartered Institute of Export; Competition Appeals Tribunal; NED at Trade Remedies Authority; adviser to Pagefield. Mostly trade and competition. And Liverpool FC.
Pinned
Five trade trends to watch out for in 2026 - Pagefield
After one of the most disruptive years ever for trade in 2025, what are the things we should watch out for which will indicate the direction of travel in 2026? The impact of the mid terms on US trade ...
www.pagefield.co.uk
What should businesses be looking our for on international trade in 2026 ? My thoughts on the US, UK/EU, China and the competing dynamics of fragmentation and alliance building, for Pagefield:
www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...
www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...
Would you say that a speech one of whose main points was misleading was brilliant ? I agree with Martin Wolf @financialtimes.com that Mark Carney’s comparison of Communism and the rules based system was misleading (“The reality of a world after rupture”). That seems a pretty major flaw in the speech
January 28, 2026 at 9:41 AM
Would you say that a speech one of whose main points was misleading was brilliant ? I agree with Martin Wolf @financialtimes.com that Mark Carney’s comparison of Communism and the rules based system was misleading (“The reality of a world after rupture”). That seems a pretty major flaw in the speech
Great analysis in trademark style !
Today's Trade Secrets. In which I madly ignore my own "nobody knows anything" advice & try to spot patterns (though not intent) in Trump's tariffs. I think I have. Some tariffs he TACOs, some he imposes. But all the explicitly coercive geopolitical ones like Greenland get TACOd and achieve nothing.
Why Donald Trump’s geopolitical tariffs tend to end in Taco
[FREE TO READ] Unlike his protectionist duties, the US president’s coercive foreign policy levies almost always come to nothing
as.ft.com
January 26, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Great analysis in trademark style !
The question we’re all asking is whether FIFA will demand that President Trump hands back the world peace award they gave him recently.
January 20, 2026 at 8:25 PM
The question we’re all asking is whether FIFA will demand that President Trump hands back the world peace award they gave him recently.
Ignacio Bercero going for the jugular here. This means it really is serious.
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
The end of the Turnberry truce: how the EU should react to US coercion over Greenland
The EU should be prepared to hit back against US economic pressure, deploying trade and anti-coercion measures
www.bruegel.org
January 20, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Ignacio Bercero going for the jugular here. This means it really is serious.
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
Anything happening today ?
January 20, 2026 at 11:22 AM
Anything happening today ?
“The internet is not a fantasy. It is a real place, real life. X remains a public square. Bluesky, by contrast, is where the teachers’ pets meet after class to study.” Stella Tsantekidou @newstatesman1913.bsky.social Ouch ! But true.
January 19, 2026 at 9:15 PM
“The internet is not a fantasy. It is a real place, real life. X remains a public square. Bluesky, by contrast, is where the teachers’ pets meet after class to study.” Stella Tsantekidou @newstatesman1913.bsky.social Ouch ! But true.
“The dangerous triumph of neo-mercantilism” great article by Martin Wolf @financialtimes.com. Most politicians are instinctively neomercantilist: they laud exports and decry imports. But many also see that better living standards require economic change. That’s the case for liberalism.
January 19, 2026 at 7:39 PM
“The dangerous triumph of neo-mercantilism” great article by Martin Wolf @financialtimes.com. Most politicians are instinctively neomercantilist: they laud exports and decry imports. But many also see that better living standards require economic change. That’s the case for liberalism.
It’s bad enough that @gideonrachman.bsky.social ‘s articles @FT are always wholly predictable. But he’s stretched the elastic even further by suggesting that Trump’s tariffs should “prompt Keir Starmer to rejoin the single market.” What, tomorrow ? How about the EU just drop its barriers instead ?
January 19, 2026 at 8:57 AM
It’s bad enough that @gideonrachman.bsky.social ‘s articles @FT are always wholly predictable. But he’s stretched the elastic even further by suggesting that Trump’s tariffs should “prompt Keir Starmer to rejoin the single market.” What, tomorrow ? How about the EU just drop its barriers instead ?
USTR finding that things not entirely going their way.
January 17, 2026 at 10:56 PM
USTR finding that things not entirely going their way.
America belatedly discovers the benefits of multilateral trade liberalisation … @financialtimes.com
January 17, 2026 at 8:39 AM
America belatedly discovers the benefits of multilateral trade liberalisation … @financialtimes.com
Good news for trade and common sense for Canada. There was never any justification for the EV tariffs.
Who else is excited that Canada has dropped tariffs on Chinese EVS from 100% to 6.1% for the first 49,000 units?
January 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM
Good news for trade and common sense for Canada. There was never any justification for the EV tariffs.
It looks like we can stop talking about China’s surplus of over $1trn. That is goods alone. China is likely to run a deficit of more than $200bn in services. None of that avoids the challenges posed by China’s approach on trade but it is misleading that the media only focus on goods.
January 15, 2026 at 9:41 PM
It looks like we can stop talking about China’s surplus of over $1trn. That is goods alone. China is likely to run a deficit of more than $200bn in services. None of that avoids the challenges posed by China’s approach on trade but it is misleading that the media only focus on goods.
The futile search for the cost free tax rise goes on: at @drodrik.bsky.social talk at #LSEevents yesterday the good old transaction tax aka stamp duty got rather too sympathetic a response. I’m sure that would encourage savers to put their cash into the shares the UK Govt is trying to push.
January 15, 2026 at 8:26 PM
The futile search for the cost free tax rise goes on: at @drodrik.bsky.social talk at #LSEevents yesterday the good old transaction tax aka stamp duty got rather too sympathetic a response. I’m sure that would encourage savers to put their cash into the shares the UK Govt is trying to push.
Great to hear @drodrik.bsky.social speak at #LSEevents this evening on “shared prosperity in a fractured world”. Lots to ponder on raising living standards, tackling climate change and relieving global poverty. Much rests on an industrial policy for services NOT manufacturing.
January 14, 2026 at 8:32 PM
Great to hear @drodrik.bsky.social speak at #LSEevents this evening on “shared prosperity in a fractured world”. Lots to ponder on raising living standards, tackling climate change and relieving global poverty. Much rests on an industrial policy for services NOT manufacturing.
What should businesses be looking our for on international trade in 2026 ? My thoughts on the US, UK/EU, China and the competing dynamics of fragmentation and alliance building, for Pagefield:
www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...
www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...
Five trade trends to watch out for in 2026 - Pagefield
After one of the most disruptive years ever for trade in 2025, what are the things we should watch out for which will indicate the direction of travel in 2026? The impact of the mid terms on US trade ...
www.pagefield.co.uk
January 14, 2026 at 5:05 PM
What should businesses be looking our for on international trade in 2026 ? My thoughts on the US, UK/EU, China and the competing dynamics of fragmentation and alliance building, for Pagefield:
www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...
www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...
The Theresa May EU deal (which Labour opposed) had:
- alignment on industrial goods regulation
- freedom to diverge on services
- a non CU common tariff (“magical thinking”)
Ironically it looks like we are trying to go back to exactly that.
- alignment on industrial goods regulation
- freedom to diverge on services
- a non CU common tariff (“magical thinking”)
Ironically it looks like we are trying to go back to exactly that.
January 8, 2026 at 9:24 PM
The Theresa May EU deal (which Labour opposed) had:
- alignment on industrial goods regulation
- freedom to diverge on services
- a non CU common tariff (“magical thinking”)
Ironically it looks like we are trying to go back to exactly that.
- alignment on industrial goods regulation
- freedom to diverge on services
- a non CU common tariff (“magical thinking”)
Ironically it looks like we are trying to go back to exactly that.
@samuelmarclowe.bsky.social given the title of your substack we are waiting for your view on the US proposals to reform the WTO, notably by doing away with the principle of MFN. Are we in an era of LFN (Least Favoured Nation, with no special deals) ?
December 23, 2025 at 7:38 PM
@samuelmarclowe.bsky.social given the title of your substack we are waiting for your view on the US proposals to reform the WTO, notably by doing away with the principle of MFN. Are we in an era of LFN (Least Favoured Nation, with no special deals) ?
Repeat after me: “there is no such thing as ‘a’ customs union with the EU. There is only membership of ‘the’ EU Customs Union.” In the sense that any country with ‘a’ CU (only Turkey btw) simply follows the rules set by EU member states. Better to join the EU @wesstreeting.bsky.social
December 21, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Repeat after me: “there is no such thing as ‘a’ customs union with the EU. There is only membership of ‘the’ EU Customs Union.” In the sense that any country with ‘a’ CU (only Turkey btw) simply follows the rules set by EU member states. Better to join the EU @wesstreeting.bsky.social
“Car industry issues warning on EU plan to ease petrol ban” @financialtimes.com
This looks like a classic case of complexity heaped on complexity to create some theoretical model which is totally unworkable in practice. It is all too easy for Government - at whatever level - to do this.
This looks like a classic case of complexity heaped on complexity to create some theoretical model which is totally unworkable in practice. It is all too easy for Government - at whatever level - to do this.
December 19, 2025 at 3:10 PM
“Car industry issues warning on EU plan to ease petrol ban” @financialtimes.com
This looks like a classic case of complexity heaped on complexity to create some theoretical model which is totally unworkable in practice. It is all too easy for Government - at whatever level - to do this.
This looks like a classic case of complexity heaped on complexity to create some theoretical model which is totally unworkable in practice. It is all too easy for Government - at whatever level - to do this.
You can debate the cost of rejoining Erasmus but it makes a lot more sense than rejoining the Customs Union outside the EU.
December 17, 2025 at 2:21 PM
You can debate the cost of rejoining Erasmus but it makes a lot more sense than rejoining the Customs Union outside the EU.
Yeah I had some problems with the Greens but that’s gone away fortunately.
You can’t “fix” X, The Everything App by going back and posting there because the owner has this thumb on the scale of the algorithm to promote the worst ideas and people. It’s not a viable solution, you have to let it go.
Dear Bluesky liberals. Come back to Twitter. Please. PLEASE.
December 15, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Yeah I had some problems with the Greens but that’s gone away fortunately.
This is what happens when you let Parliament start meddling with the text of trade deals !
borderlex.net/2025/12/11/c...
borderlex.net/2025/12/11/c...
Commission official warns parliament amendment violates Mercosur deal - Borderlex - European trade policy
The European Commission official who negotiated the EU-Mercosur trade agreement warned that changes requested by the European Parliament’s international trade committee on a safeguard regulation tied ...
borderlex.net
December 11, 2025 at 11:37 AM
This is what happens when you let Parliament start meddling with the text of trade deals !
borderlex.net/2025/12/11/c...
borderlex.net/2025/12/11/c...
I’m afraid the BBC has fallen at the first hurdle in explaining the Customs Union. Apparently it creates tariff free trade (which we already have with the EU). @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social your help needed.
And here's the latest edition of MFN, in which I try to explain what a customs union is ... again.
mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/customs-un...
mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/customs-un...
Customs Union
What do you know? You know ...
mostfavourednation.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:11 AM
I’m afraid the BBC has fallen at the first hurdle in explaining the Customs Union. Apparently it creates tariff free trade (which we already have with the EU). @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social your help needed.
My letter @thetimes.com on why it makes more sense to rejoin the EU than join their customs union or single market but stay out, which would pose major risks for the UK.
December 6, 2025 at 8:20 AM
My letter @thetimes.com on why it makes more sense to rejoin the EU than join their customs union or single market but stay out, which would pose major risks for the UK.