Joel Dyer
@joelnmdyer.bsky.social
AI/ML Research Scientist
@compscioxford.bsky.social & @inetoxford.bsky.social
Website: https://joelnmdyer.github.io
GitHub: https://github.com/joelnmdyer
@compscioxford.bsky.social & @inetoxford.bsky.social
Website: https://joelnmdyer.github.io
GitHub: https://github.com/joelnmdyer
Pinned
Joel Dyer
@joelnmdyer.bsky.social
· Jun 26
We’ve got a new paper out on “Learning Likelihood-free Reference Priors”, forthcoming at #ICML2025.
In this paper, we consider how reference priors (RPs) can be constructed for arbitrary simulation models. 🧵
In this paper, we consider how reference priors (RPs) can be constructed for arbitrary simulation models. 🧵
Reposted by Joel Dyer
There can be no better example of something deeply wrong with this country's national culture than the normalisation of the description of a soggy pre-packaged sandwich as a "main".
August 2, 2025 at 11:45 PM
There can be no better example of something deeply wrong with this country's national culture than the normalisation of the description of a soggy pre-packaged sandwich as a "main".
We’ve got a new paper out on “Learning Likelihood-free Reference Priors”, forthcoming at #ICML2025.
In this paper, we consider how reference priors (RPs) can be constructed for arbitrary simulation models. 🧵
In this paper, we consider how reference priors (RPs) can be constructed for arbitrary simulation models. 🧵
June 26, 2025 at 9:47 AM
We’ve got a new paper out on “Learning Likelihood-free Reference Priors”, forthcoming at #ICML2025.
In this paper, we consider how reference priors (RPs) can be constructed for arbitrary simulation models. 🧵
In this paper, we consider how reference priors (RPs) can be constructed for arbitrary simulation models. 🧵
Reposted by Joel Dyer
🔥 Got a great work on causal representation learning, abstraction, high-dimensional discovery, or other hot topics in causality?
🇧🇷 Don’t miss your chance to present in Rio at the CAR Workshop at #UAI2025!
⏰ Deadline is in 1 week – May 26!
🌐 sites.google.com/view/car-25/
🇧🇷 Don’t miss your chance to present in Rio at the CAR Workshop at #UAI2025!
⏰ Deadline is in 1 week – May 26!
🌐 sites.google.com/view/car-25/
CAR
Causal Abstractions and Representations Workshop @ UAI 2025 July 25th 2025, Rio de Janeiro 🇧🇷
sites.google.com
May 19, 2025 at 7:52 PM
🔥 Got a great work on causal representation learning, abstraction, high-dimensional discovery, or other hot topics in causality?
🇧🇷 Don’t miss your chance to present in Rio at the CAR Workshop at #UAI2025!
⏰ Deadline is in 1 week – May 26!
🌐 sites.google.com/view/car-25/
🇧🇷 Don’t miss your chance to present in Rio at the CAR Workshop at #UAI2025!
⏰ Deadline is in 1 week – May 26!
🌐 sites.google.com/view/car-25/
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Going to the hospital because I broke my wrist smashing the endorse button:
www.understandingai.org/p/i-got-fool...
www.understandingai.org/p/i-got-fool...
I got fooled by AI-for-science hype—here's what it taught me
I used AI in my plasma physics research and it didn’t go the way I expected.
www.understandingai.org
May 19, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Going to the hospital because I broke my wrist smashing the endorse button:
www.understandingai.org/p/i-got-fool...
www.understandingai.org/p/i-got-fool...
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Reposted by Joel Dyer
1. LLM-generated code tries to run code from online software packages. Which is normal but
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
LLMs hallucinating nonexistent software packages with plausible names leads to a new malware vulnerability: "slopsquatting."
LLMs can't stop making up software dependencies and sabotaging everything
: Hallucinated package names fuel 'slopsquatting'
www.theregister.com
April 12, 2025 at 11:43 PM
1. LLM-generated code tries to run code from online software packages. Which is normal but
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but
3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So
4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Professor Nigel Shadbolt has shared his thoughts on the potential risks of AI-powered teddy bears that use AI to converse with children. He suggested that they 'could be used to survey, they could be used to appropriate and harvest data from the child.' www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03...
AI teddies could ‘harvest data from your children’
Sir Nigel Shadbolt, a leading researcher, has raised concerns about ‘smart toys’
www.telegraph.co.uk
April 3, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Professor Nigel Shadbolt has shared his thoughts on the potential risks of AI-powered teddy bears that use AI to converse with children. He suggested that they 'could be used to survey, they could be used to appropriate and harvest data from the child.' www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03...
Reposted by Joel Dyer
1/1🗣️People with a learning disability die up to 20 years younger than the general population, even though this could be avoided with the right healthcare.
March 28, 2025 at 4:02 PM
1/1🗣️People with a learning disability die up to 20 years younger than the general population, even though this could be avoided with the right healthcare.
Reposted by Joel Dyer
🆕 Agent Based Modelling Comes of Age
@doynefarmer.bsky.social believes creating economic models that can make useful predictions may be the most important problem in economics today
🔖We summarise 3 of 2025's ground breaking papers
🔗https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/agent-based-modelling-comes-of-age
@doynefarmer.bsky.social believes creating economic models that can make useful predictions may be the most important problem in economics today
🔖We summarise 3 of 2025's ground breaking papers
🔗https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/agent-based-modelling-comes-of-age
Agent Based Modelling Comes of Age
Our recently published research demonstrates how ABMs is 'coming of age' cross three areas: central banking, economics and finance, and AI.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk
March 21, 2025 at 10:50 AM
🆕 Agent Based Modelling Comes of Age
@doynefarmer.bsky.social believes creating economic models that can make useful predictions may be the most important problem in economics today
🔖We summarise 3 of 2025's ground breaking papers
🔗https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/agent-based-modelling-comes-of-age
@doynefarmer.bsky.social believes creating economic models that can make useful predictions may be the most important problem in economics today
🔖We summarise 3 of 2025's ground breaking papers
🔗https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/agent-based-modelling-comes-of-age
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Excited to announce we are organising a two-day workshop on 'Bayesian Computation and Inference in Misspecified Models' at BayesComp 2025!
Registrations are now open, with a very nice lineup of speakers to be announced soon! bayescomp2025.sg
@isba-bayesian.bsky.social
Registrations are now open, with a very nice lineup of speakers to be announced soon! bayescomp2025.sg
@isba-bayesian.bsky.social
Bayes Comp 2025
bayescomp2025.sg
January 28, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Excited to announce we are organising a two-day workshop on 'Bayesian Computation and Inference in Misspecified Models' at BayesComp 2025!
Registrations are now open, with a very nice lineup of speakers to be announced soon! bayescomp2025.sg
@isba-bayesian.bsky.social
Registrations are now open, with a very nice lineup of speakers to be announced soon! bayescomp2025.sg
@isba-bayesian.bsky.social
Reposted by Joel Dyer
We’re overwhelmed by all the generous donations from Traitors fans after hearing Alexander Dragonetti’s story! 🎉
You’d wanted to know how much has been raised...
#TheTraitors #AlexanderDragonetti
You’d wanted to know how much has been raised...
#TheTraitors #AlexanderDragonetti
January 27, 2025 at 2:48 PM
We’re overwhelmed by all the generous donations from Traitors fans after hearing Alexander Dragonetti’s story! 🎉
You’d wanted to know how much has been raised...
#TheTraitors #AlexanderDragonetti
You’d wanted to know how much has been raised...
#TheTraitors #AlexanderDragonetti
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Definitely consider submitting your work to UAI, it's fantastic conference!
And while you're at it, why not submit a shorter version to the AABI workshop track (deadline Feb 7)? 😉
And while you're at it, why not submit a shorter version to the AABI workshop track (deadline Feb 7)? 😉
Sad after #AISTATS2025 and #ICLR2025 notifications? As we say in Italy, when a door closes, a bigger one opens ;)
If you have a fantastic paper on #uncertainty #AI #ML #causality #statML #probabilisticmodels #reasoning #impreciseprobabilities etc, consider submitting to #UAI2025 🇧🇷 deadline 10 Feb 💥
If you have a fantastic paper on #uncertainty #AI #ML #causality #statML #probabilisticmodels #reasoning #impreciseprobabilities etc, consider submitting to #UAI2025 🇧🇷 deadline 10 Feb 💥
The 41st Conference on #Uncertainty in #AI will be held in Rio de Janeiro 🇧🇷, July 21-25!
The CfP is out 👉 www.auai.org/uai2025/call...
🚨 Feb 10: Paper submission
🗣️ Apr 3-10: rebuttal period
🎉/💀 May 6: Author notification
#UAI2025 #ML #stats #learning #reasoning #uncertainty
The CfP is out 👉 www.auai.org/uai2025/call...
🚨 Feb 10: Paper submission
🗣️ Apr 3-10: rebuttal period
🎉/💀 May 6: Author notification
#UAI2025 #ML #stats #learning #reasoning #uncertainty
January 24, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Definitely consider submitting your work to UAI, it's fantastic conference!
And while you're at it, why not submit a shorter version to the AABI workshop track (deadline Feb 7)? 😉
And while you're at it, why not submit a shorter version to the AABI workshop track (deadline Feb 7)? 😉
Reposted by Joel Dyer
#UAI is one of the best general conferences for causal researchers
Submission deadline: Feb 10
#CausalSky
Submission deadline: Feb 10
#CausalSky
Sad after #AISTATS2025 and #ICLR2025 notifications? As we say in Italy, when a door closes, a bigger one opens ;)
If you have a fantastic paper on #uncertainty #AI #ML #causality #statML #probabilisticmodels #reasoning #impreciseprobabilities etc, consider submitting to #UAI2025 🇧🇷 deadline 10 Feb 💥
If you have a fantastic paper on #uncertainty #AI #ML #causality #statML #probabilisticmodels #reasoning #impreciseprobabilities etc, consider submitting to #UAI2025 🇧🇷 deadline 10 Feb 💥
The 41st Conference on #Uncertainty in #AI will be held in Rio de Janeiro 🇧🇷, July 21-25!
The CfP is out 👉 www.auai.org/uai2025/call...
🚨 Feb 10: Paper submission
🗣️ Apr 3-10: rebuttal period
🎉/💀 May 6: Author notification
#UAI2025 #ML #stats #learning #reasoning #uncertainty
The CfP is out 👉 www.auai.org/uai2025/call...
🚨 Feb 10: Paper submission
🗣️ Apr 3-10: rebuttal period
🎉/💀 May 6: Author notification
#UAI2025 #ML #stats #learning #reasoning #uncertainty
January 24, 2025 at 10:37 AM
#UAI is one of the best general conferences for causal researchers
Submission deadline: Feb 10
#CausalSky
Submission deadline: Feb 10
#CausalSky
Reposted by Joel Dyer
November 12, 2024 at 6:17 AM
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Next week will be ✈️to @neuripsconf.bsky.social together with @joelnmdyer.bsky.social and Nick Bishop to present our work on "Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models". Details 👇
December 7, 2024 at 8:55 PM
Next week will be ✈️to @neuripsconf.bsky.social together with @joelnmdyer.bsky.social and Nick Bishop to present our work on "Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models". Details 👇
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Which infectious disease will dominate the headlines in the coming years? A new emerging disease? Outbreaks of mpox or ebola? An endemic disease like malaria?
Or, it could be a resurgent disease - something once downgraded as a public health hazard that makes a come-back. Some examples:
Or, it could be a resurgent disease - something once downgraded as a public health hazard that makes a come-back. Some examples:
November 29, 2024 at 2:41 PM
See you at #NeurIPS2024! We’ll present two papers:
1) “Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models”. Here, we propose a method for learning causal abstractions (“interventionally consistent surrogates”) of complex simulation models! openreview.net/pdf?id=UtTjg... (1/3)
1) “Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models”. Here, we propose a method for learning causal abstractions (“interventionally consistent surrogates”) of complex simulation models! openreview.net/pdf?id=UtTjg... (1/3)
openreview.net
November 27, 2024 at 5:50 PM
See you at #NeurIPS2024! We’ll present two papers:
1) “Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models”. Here, we propose a method for learning causal abstractions (“interventionally consistent surrogates”) of complex simulation models! openreview.net/pdf?id=UtTjg... (1/3)
1) “Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models”. Here, we propose a method for learning causal abstractions (“interventionally consistent surrogates”) of complex simulation models! openreview.net/pdf?id=UtTjg... (1/3)
Reposted by Joel Dyer
New paper on Forecasting with Agent-Based Models from Sam Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, @joelnmdyer.bsky.social, @j0mrn.bsky.social, Marco Pangallo, Francois Lafond, John Muellbauer, Ani Calinescu, @doynefarmer.bsky.social
#Complexity #EconSky
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
#Complexity #EconSky
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
No. 2024-06 - Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated…
In the last few years, economic agent-based models have made the transition from qualitative models calibrated to match stylised facts to quantitative…
www.inet.ox.ac.uk
October 1, 2024 at 5:10 PM
New paper on Forecasting with Agent-Based Models from Sam Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, @joelnmdyer.bsky.social, @j0mrn.bsky.social, Marco Pangallo, Francois Lafond, John Muellbauer, Ani Calinescu, @doynefarmer.bsky.social
#Complexity #EconSky
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
#Complexity #EconSky
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Congratulations to @joelnmdyer.bsky.social for winning best paper at the 40th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, for his work on approximate Bayesian inference methods for simulation models.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/researc...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/researc...
Researcher wins best paper award for work on approximate Bayesian…
It seeks to aid widespread adoption of simulators in real-world modelling and decision-making scenarios, by making approximate Bayesian inference more…
www.inet.ox.ac.uk
November 4, 2024 at 4:20 PM
Congratulations to @joelnmdyer.bsky.social for winning best paper at the 40th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, for his work on approximate Bayesian inference methods for simulation models.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/researc...
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/researc...
Our group recently delivered a tutorial on building & calibrating differentiable agent-based models of financial systems at the 4th International Conference on AI in Finance #ICAIF2024!
Notebooks & materials are freely available on our tutorial website: largeagentcollider.github.io/icaif_tutori....
Notebooks & materials are freely available on our tutorial website: largeagentcollider.github.io/icaif_tutori....
A (nearly) no-CSS, fast, minimalist Jekyll theme.
largeagentcollider.github.io
November 25, 2024 at 2:38 PM
Our group recently delivered a tutorial on building & calibrating differentiable agent-based models of financial systems at the 4th International Conference on AI in Finance #ICAIF2024!
Notebooks & materials are freely available on our tutorial website: largeagentcollider.github.io/icaif_tutori....
Notebooks & materials are freely available on our tutorial website: largeagentcollider.github.io/icaif_tutori....
Reposted by Joel Dyer
Want to know more about gradient-assisted calibration for financial agent-based models? Then we have the perfect paper for you fresh from ICAIF '23 dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/...
You can also watch Joel Dyer's related talk on @inetoxford.bsky.social's YouTube account
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ria0...
You can also watch Joel Dyer's related talk on @inetoxford.bsky.social's YouTube account
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ria0...
Joel Dyer Variational Bayesian Inference for Agent based Models 23Nov2023
www.youtube.com
November 30, 2023 at 2:43 PM
Want to know more about gradient-assisted calibration for financial agent-based models? Then we have the perfect paper for you fresh from ICAIF '23 dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/...
You can also watch Joel Dyer's related talk on @inetoxford.bsky.social's YouTube account
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ria0...
You can also watch Joel Dyer's related talk on @inetoxford.bsky.social's YouTube account
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ria0...