Joao Ascensao
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joaoascensao.bsky.social
Joao Ascensao
@joaoascensao.bsky.social
Postdoc @ Harvard with Michael Desai | Evolutionary dynamics

ocf.berkeley.edu/~joaoascensao
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New review article with @mmdesai.bsky.social is out today! Grateful for the opportunity to contribute something we hope will serve the community well
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
Super excited that the bulk of my PhD work is now preprinted! Here we used whole-community competition, or coalescence, experiments to quantify selection acting on genetically diverged strains within larger communities. (1/n)
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.biorxiv.org
November 11, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
The constant barrage of terrible news on bluesky has made me feel weird about promoting papers, but people in the lab have been doing so much amazing work over the past few months that I want to share a few brief teasers/links:
September 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
How common are frequency dependent fitness effects?

New preprint out today 👇
doi.org/10.1101/2025...
Frequency-dependent fitness effects are ubiquitous
In simple microbial populations, the fitness effects of most selected mutations are generally taken to be constant, independent of genotype frequency. This assumption underpins predictions about evolutionary dynamics, epistatic interactions, and the maintenance of genetic diversity in populations. Here, we systematically test this assumption using beneficial mutations from early generations of the Escherichia coli Long-Term Evolution Experiment (LTEE). Using flow cytometry-based competition assays, we find that frequency-dependent fitness effects are the norm rather than the exception, occurring in approximately 80\% of strain pairs tested. Most competitions exhibit negative frequency-dependence, where fitness advantages decline as mutant frequency increases. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of frequency-dependence is predictable from invasion fitness measurements, with invasion fitness explaining approximately half of the biological variation in frequency-dependent slopes. Additionally, we observe violations of fitness transitivity in several strain combinations, indicating that competitive relationships cannot always be predicted from fitness relative to a single reference strain alone. Through high-resolution measurements of within-growth cycle dynamics, we show that simple resource competition explains a substantial portion of the frequency-dependence: when faster-growing genotypes dominate populations, they deplete shared resources more rapidly, reducing the time available for fitness differences to accumulate. Our results demonstrate that even in a simple model system designed to minimize ecological complexity, subtle ecological interactions between closely related genotypes create frequency-dependent selection that can fundamentally alter evolutionary dynamics. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.
doi.org
August 21, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
I'm very excited to share something I've been working on off-and-on for a long time now: a new blog about genotype-phenotype landscapes! The first post is a Gödel-Escher-Bach-style dialogue to introduce the topic. If you like it please share/repost! open.substack.com/pub/topossib...
July 27, 2025 at 8:18 PM
New review article with @mmdesai.bsky.social is out today! Grateful for the opportunity to contribute something we hope will serve the community well
July 21, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
1/n 🧵 Excited to share our new paper! We developed a framework to reveal hidden simplicity in how organisms adapt to different environments, particularly focusing on antibiotic resistance evolution. #EvolutionaryBiology #MachineLearning
Learning the Shape of Evolutionary Landscapes: Geometric Deep Learning Reveals Hidden Structure in Phenotype-to-Fitness Maps https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.05.07.652616v1
May 15, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
After a long and winding odyssey, excited to finally drop anchor in open-access waters. This preprint shows how neutral allele frequency time series can illuminate disease transmission rates between communities— key for epidemic fore- & backcasting. medrxiv.org/content/10.1... 🧵
December 6, 2024 at 10:50 PM
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
Do mutations that drive evolution improve many traits or few?

Does this change over the course of evolution?

Excited to share our work in PLOS Biology exploring these questions in the first 2 adaptive steps w/ Yuping Li, @gsherloc.bsky.social, @petrovadmitri.bsky.social 🧵

doi.org/10.1371/jour...
A high-resolution two-step evolution experiment in yeast reveals a shift from pleiotropic to modular adaptation
Evolution is expected to involve mutations that are small and modular in effect, but recent findings suggest that mutations early in an adaptive process can have strong and pleiotropic effects. This s...
doi.org
December 5, 2024 at 9:46 PM
We usually think of genetic drift as the predominant stochastic force in evolving populations. But working with some model microbial populations, we found a distinct source of demographic stochasticity that scales (and behaves) differently than drift

Learn more in our new paper 👉 rdcu.be/d07Np
Asynchronous abundance fluctuations can drive giant genotype frequency fluctuations
Nature Ecology & Evolution - Based on a combination of experiments and modelling, this study shows large stochastic fluctuations in genotype frequencies caused by intrinsic and extrinsic...
rdcu.be
November 22, 2024 at 3:46 PM
Do you enjoy mysterious population stochasticity, chaotic dynamics, and/or popgen? Then this preprint might be for you!

Super excited to share a project that has been an exciting journey, and a fun blend of theory and experiment!

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
Asynchronous abundance fluctuations can drive giant genotype frequency fluctuations
bioRxiv - the preprint server for biology, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, a research and educational institution
www.biorxiv.org
February 28, 2024 at 10:32 PM
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
Belated happy birthday to the #LTEE.
Started 24-Feb-1988.
Evolve cells, evolve!

#science #evolution #bacteria #microsky @barricklab.bsky.social
February 27, 2024 at 2:56 AM
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
Grateful to have had the opportunity to write a Current Biology Dispatch on @joaoascensao.bsky.social et al's fascinating recent study on the re-emergence of ecological diversification in the Long-Term Evolution Experiment!

authors.elsevier.com/a/1ifo63QW8S...

www.cell.com/current-biol...
February 26, 2024 at 3:52 PM
Happy to say that our work on how microbial communities rediversify after a perturbation is now published!

authors.elsevier.com/c/1iYm63QW8S...
February 6, 2024 at 5:19 PM