Before tomorrows meeting, the Americans are pushing two talking points, territory and security guarantees. Both of these are irrelevant for the peace process.

Putin's midnight speech is likely to be ceasefire related. But what ceasefire? His ceasefire just ended and the western proposed ceasefire starts on Monday. Putin is usually one to duck out of clear commitments. But if he wants, this is a good time to choose whether to stay in the negotiations.

Europe needs to prepare for the defense of Greenland. The American annexation cannot be a fait accompli. Nuuk needs to be reinforced, and Naval assets need to be placed in the area. President Trump was elected on a message of 'no more pointless wars', so we cannot allow a war-free invasion.

This isn't a surprising argument to me. In fact, I predicted that this viewpoint would emerge over a year ago in my very first NWL post. I also pointed to its most apparent flaw: Quarantining the conflict is merely procrastination, and we are less urgent in our rearmament the more successful it is.

There's alot to be learned about how Trump is capable of controlling a narrative. We should counter the current narrative and point to Ukraine's path to victory. They are holding the line, Russia grows desperate on the battlefield and their economy is taking a big hit!

This narrative must change. Trump has not paused military aid to Ukraine because of a bad meeting, but because of disagreement about the political substance. Trump wants Ukraine to surrender, and he thinks this step will do the job.

Russia will reject the this plan, but that is probably the point.

Understanding why peace talks over the conflict in Ukraine are premature, besides the obvious point that Ukraine hasn’t won yet, requires understanding the motivations and needs of the parties involved and, crucially, their win conditions.

Yesterday's disaster in the White House all but finalized the great security divorce of Europe from America. How will this play out? How will it shape Europe?

That European leaders jumped to back Trump's phony peace talks by offering troops for a "peacekeeping mission" shows itself to have been utterly misguided. His strategy was always to bully Ukraine into surrendering. Today it was aired live on tv, but we should have known it was coming.

Europe can't allow this disastrous war to continue anymore. The Russians are tearing away at our alliance, and the American administration showed how little the US has to offer to any of its allies. All the while, Ukraine is bleeding out in the field. Intervene while the Russians are weak.

Is Europe being played in Ukraine?
The current discussion of a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine is almost entirely divorced of any analysis of what Russia seeks to accomplish with talks with the US administration.

Although I think Ukraine should be allowed to keep all of its minerals, Europe is in a better position to bargain for them than America. We provide more military and financial aid to Ukraine, we can offer EU membership, and we're the only ones putting a peacekeeping force on the table.