Joakim Blom
@joakimblom.bsky.social
Additionally, for Europe, it is clear that the countdown for the Euro-Russian war starts when the guns fall silent in Ukraine. We could support a ceasefire if Ukraine really needs it, but not if it comes with sanctions relief, because that would only start an arms race we won't even want to win.
August 17, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Additionally, for Europe, it is clear that the countdown for the Euro-Russian war starts when the guns fall silent in Ukraine. We could support a ceasefire if Ukraine really needs it, but not if it comes with sanctions relief, because that would only start an arms race we won't even want to win.
Europe should reject such a proposal. But Trump will attempt to sweeten the deal with security guarantees. It's a distraction. There is no such thing as a guarantee of security. And to present a proposal with fake guarantees, at the real cost of Ukrainian military capacity would be outrageous.
August 17, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Europe should reject such a proposal. But Trump will attempt to sweeten the deal with security guarantees. It's a distraction. There is no such thing as a guarantee of security. And to present a proposal with fake guarantees, at the real cost of Ukrainian military capacity would be outrageous.
But the point is that a land-swap is unlikely to satisfy Russia. If Trump is truly about to present a peace deal to Ukraine tomorrow then, he must also deliver, on behalf of the Russians, a proposal to shift the balance of power in Europe.
August 17, 2025 at 5:08 PM
But the point is that a land-swap is unlikely to satisfy Russia. If Trump is truly about to present a peace deal to Ukraine tomorrow then, he must also deliver, on behalf of the Russians, a proposal to shift the balance of power in Europe.
Sanctions relief, NATO troop withdrawals in eastern Europe and limits on Ukrainian rearmament. Tbf, some territory could affect the balance of power as well, in particular if Ukraine was forced to give up territory it still holds in Donetsk.
August 17, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Sanctions relief, NATO troop withdrawals in eastern Europe and limits on Ukrainian rearmament. Tbf, some territory could affect the balance of power as well, in particular if Ukraine was forced to give up territory it still holds in Donetsk.
Putin did not invade Ukraine for some "waterfront property" as Trump called it. He invaded Ukraine to shift the balance of power in Europe. For this reason, he has pushed at least three big issues where he wants concessions from "the west".
August 17, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Putin did not invade Ukraine for some "waterfront property" as Trump called it. He invaded Ukraine to shift the balance of power in Europe. For this reason, he has pushed at least three big issues where he wants concessions from "the west".
The European position should be unmoved by this. Unconditional ceasefire, followed by negotiations is our proposal. Putin is rejecting this model, and therefor a punishment should follow, i.e. sanctions, and Ukraine should reject the proposed direct negotiation in Turkey.
May 10, 2025 at 11:23 PM
The European position should be unmoved by this. Unconditional ceasefire, followed by negotiations is our proposal. Putin is rejecting this model, and therefor a punishment should follow, i.e. sanctions, and Ukraine should reject the proposed direct negotiation in Turkey.
The proposal to continue direct negotiations this week in Turkey is likely a curveball intended to delay a western response to his rejection of the ceasefire, and cause further division as Europe+US debate how to move forward
May 10, 2025 at 11:23 PM
The proposal to continue direct negotiations this week in Turkey is likely a curveball intended to delay a western response to his rejection of the ceasefire, and cause further division as Europe+US debate how to move forward
Putin rejected the ceasefire and suggested further negotiations. I suspect western countries applied significant pressure along with this ceasefire proposal, with a response threatened if he rejected it. By suggesting further direct negotiations, he is attempting to pass the ball back in our court.
May 10, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Putin rejected the ceasefire and suggested further negotiations. I suspect western countries applied significant pressure along with this ceasefire proposal, with a response threatened if he rejected it. By suggesting further direct negotiations, he is attempting to pass the ball back in our court.
But he would probably prefer to reject the ceasefire in a way that doesn't end the negotiations, and most importantly in a way that doesn't anger the US and its president. The timeslot suggests the US is his main audience here.
May 10, 2025 at 10:16 PM
But he would probably prefer to reject the ceasefire in a way that doesn't end the negotiations, and most importantly in a way that doesn't anger the US and its president. The timeslot suggests the US is his main audience here.
Recent warnings by the US embassy in Kyiv that a significant air attack may occur soon would suggest Putin is about to reject the western ceasefire, potentially putting an end to the negotiations.
May 10, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Recent warnings by the US embassy in Kyiv that a significant air attack may occur soon would suggest Putin is about to reject the western ceasefire, potentially putting an end to the negotiations.
This seems to align pretty well with the WSJ reporting from the weekend, which was 20% across the board. Since then the dow jones is up 2%. If a whiff of 20% lead to such gains, I'm sure the stupidheads over on Wall Street will respond with great jubilation and buy even more stocks!
April 2, 2025 at 10:50 PM
This seems to align pretty well with the WSJ reporting from the weekend, which was 20% across the board. Since then the dow jones is up 2%. If a whiff of 20% lead to such gains, I'm sure the stupidheads over on Wall Street will respond with great jubilation and buy even more stocks!
Like, a lot has changed in the last few months, but we're mostly still in the same position. We already needed to increase our support for Ukraine!
April 2, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Like, a lot has changed in the last few months, but we're mostly still in the same position. We already needed to increase our support for Ukraine!
Seems like not enough has changed for these meetings to yield any tangible result. We will not intervene in the war and there is not going to be a ceasefire, making a "peacekeeping force" irrelevant. The only thing they can agree on is to support Ukraine more. Great, but that's expensive!
April 2, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Seems like not enough has changed for these meetings to yield any tangible result. We will not intervene in the war and there is not going to be a ceasefire, making a "peacekeeping force" irrelevant. The only thing they can agree on is to support Ukraine more. Great, but that's expensive!
And they proposed a method to do it with! Reckless, bordering on complicit attempt at 'reporting'.
March 30, 2025 at 6:13 PM
And they proposed a method to do it with! Reckless, bordering on complicit attempt at 'reporting'.
Saying shit like this makes me sound like a Russian troll, trying to stir up trouble and sow division. I would never have imagined that America could be the enemy. Hopefully, if the American people can be made to understand what is at risk here, this can all be stopped.
March 28, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Saying shit like this makes me sound like a Russian troll, trying to stir up trouble and sow division. I would never have imagined that America could be the enemy. Hopefully, if the American people can be made to understand what is at risk here, this can all be stopped.
The threats facing Europe now are much more complicated and severe. It is not the time for procrastination. As I wrote then, there is rarely a winning strategy that starts with losing, and we cannot afford to lose time. For Europe to prevail, Ukraine must prevail. Start there and hurry up.
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The threats facing Europe now are much more complicated and severe. It is not the time for procrastination. As I wrote then, there is rarely a winning strategy that starts with losing, and we cannot afford to lose time. For Europe to prevail, Ukraine must prevail. Start there and hurry up.
For anybody pondering the possibility of continuing this strategy of quarantine, including the German intel chief, ask yourself this, where else are the stray shots going to hit?
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 PM
For anybody pondering the possibility of continuing this strategy of quarantine, including the German intel chief, ask yourself this, where else are the stray shots going to hit?
It shouldn't surprise anybody that purposefully keeping a war alive, and allowing the deaths of soldiers and civilians alike, is bound to cause collateral damage. The death of the transatlantic link is another fatality of war. It is the direct result of continuing conflict in Ukraine.
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 PM
It shouldn't surprise anybody that purposefully keeping a war alive, and allowing the deaths of soldiers and civilians alike, is bound to cause collateral damage. The death of the transatlantic link is another fatality of war. It is the direct result of continuing conflict in Ukraine.
Much has changed since. NATO is largely irrelevant, Europe has an enemy to the east and an adversary to the west. US support for Ukraine drying up may allow Russian advances, and whatever preparation we had for conflict with Russia depended on our newest adversary.
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Much has changed since. NATO is largely irrelevant, Europe has an enemy to the east and an adversary to the west. US support for Ukraine drying up may allow Russian advances, and whatever preparation we had for conflict with Russia depended on our newest adversary.
I outlined those threats as follows: "Suddenly, there was an enemy on NATO’s eastern flank, they were coming closer, and we were unprepared.". In the eyes of decision makers, a year ago many of those threats had been dealt with.
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 PM
I outlined those threats as follows: "Suddenly, there was an enemy on NATO’s eastern flank, they were coming closer, and we were unprepared.". In the eyes of decision makers, a year ago many of those threats had been dealt with.
What's most curious though is that I argued this viewpoint would emerge because the most immediate threats facing Europe following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine had largely been dealt with, allowing the west to deprioritize the conflict. But this suggestion comes under different circumstances.
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 PM
What's most curious though is that I argued this viewpoint would emerge because the most immediate threats facing Europe following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine had largely been dealt with, allowing the west to deprioritize the conflict. But this suggestion comes under different circumstances.
Procrastination is a waste of time, and we've not only wasted the time we got since Georgia in '08, or Crimea in '14. We've even wasted the last three years! Merely aiming to prolong the war in Ukraine, giving us a buffer before our own conflict with Russia, will prove just as wasteful.
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Procrastination is a waste of time, and we've not only wasted the time we got since Georgia in '08, or Crimea in '14. We've even wasted the last three years! Merely aiming to prolong the war in Ukraine, giving us a buffer before our own conflict with Russia, will prove just as wasteful.