Jonathan Tonkin
@jdtonkin.bsky.social
Dad | Professor & Rutherford Discovery Fellow @UCNZ | #ecology, #biodiversity, #forecasting, #freshwater, #climatechange | surf obsessed | https://tonkinlab.org | Subscribe to newsletter: https://predirections.substack.com
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Jonathan Tonkin
@jdtonkin.bsky.social
· Jan 12
Why I write this...
...and a directory of sorts. Start here!
predirections.substack.com
Closing in on two years writing on Substack. Here's a short introductory post summarising what my newsletter is about – #biodiversity, #climate, #water – including some of the more popular posts.
predirections.substack.com/p/why-i-writ...
predirections.substack.com/p/why-i-writ...
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
"Shifts in atmospheric circulation favour more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves in Europe (...) the number of heat stress days is increasing in Europe, with 2024 seeing the second-highest number on record."
climate.copernicus.eu/why-are-euro...
climate.copernicus.eu/why-are-euro...
Why are Europe and the Arctic heating up faster than the rest of the world?
As the planet continues to warm, not all regions are heating up at the same pace. Over the last thirty years, the global average temperature has increased by around 0.26°C per decade. But in Europe a...
climate.copernicus.eu
February 13, 2026 at 6:03 AM
"Shifts in atmospheric circulation favour more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves in Europe (...) the number of heat stress days is increasing in Europe, with 2024 seeing the second-highest number on record."
climate.copernicus.eu/why-are-euro...
climate.copernicus.eu/why-are-euro...
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Giving rivers room to move, can benefit people and nature.
As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, rethinking our approach to managing floodplain rivers has never been more urgent.
floodplain river systems are among the most valuable ecosystems.
#rivers
As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, rethinking our approach to managing floodplain rivers has never been more urgent.
floodplain river systems are among the most valuable ecosystems.
#rivers
March 29, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Giving rivers room to move, can benefit people and nature.
As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, rethinking our approach to managing floodplain rivers has never been more urgent.
floodplain river systems are among the most valuable ecosystems.
#rivers
As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, rethinking our approach to managing floodplain rivers has never been more urgent.
floodplain river systems are among the most valuable ecosystems.
#rivers
I was very happy to provide this recommendation for the Science Media Centre's Media SAVVY course. If you're a scientist, do consider signing up.
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/science-medi...
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/science-medi...
February 13, 2026 at 3:34 AM
I was very happy to provide this recommendation for the Science Media Centre's Media SAVVY course. If you're a scientist, do consider signing up.
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/science-medi...
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/science-medi...
Slash budgets for conservation to balance this year’s books. Sound familiar? That’s the all-too-familiar approach of many governments around the world right now, including New Zealand.
February 12, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Slash budgets for conservation to balance this year’s books. Sound familiar? That’s the all-too-familiar approach of many governments around the world right now, including New Zealand.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
It doesn’t matter whether it’s in politics, science, or social media, if disagreement is based on defending identities rather than understanding claims, learning is impossible.
I’ve been thinking a lot about what separates productive disagreement from point‑scoring. I explore it in this week’s post.
I’ve been thinking a lot about what separates productive disagreement from point‑scoring. I explore it in this week’s post.
Disagree well
On curiosity, intellectual charity, and why we talk past each other
predirections.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 5:48 PM
It doesn’t matter whether it’s in politics, science, or social media, if disagreement is based on defending identities rather than understanding claims, learning is impossible.
I’ve been thinking a lot about what separates productive disagreement from point‑scoring. I explore it in this week’s post.
I’ve been thinking a lot about what separates productive disagreement from point‑scoring. I explore it in this week’s post.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
A massive shout-out to all women and girls in science, you make science and the world better! www.unesco.org/en/articles/...
2026 International Day of Women and Girls in Science
Join UNESCO on 11 February 2026 for a global event celebrating women in science and shaping a future where science and gender equality advance together
www.unesco.org
February 11, 2026 at 2:29 AM
A massive shout-out to all women and girls in science, you make science and the world better! www.unesco.org/en/articles/...
Wellington is currently pumping raw sewage into the sea because of a failure somewhere in the water treatment-outflow pipeline.
Tell you what, I’d rather pay more in rates and taxes than have to swim in a sea full of untreated poo!
Tell you what, I’d rather pay more in rates and taxes than have to swim in a sea full of untreated poo!
Watch: Where Wellington's sewage is drifting in the harbour
Researchers have mapped the flow of raw sewage from the faulty Moa Point plant in the harbour. So is it safe to swim?
www.rnz.co.nz
February 11, 2026 at 2:23 AM
Wellington is currently pumping raw sewage into the sea because of a failure somewhere in the water treatment-outflow pipeline.
Tell you what, I’d rather pay more in rates and taxes than have to swim in a sea full of untreated poo!
Tell you what, I’d rather pay more in rates and taxes than have to swim in a sea full of untreated poo!
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Bluesky Map
Interactive map of 3.4 million Bluesky users, visualised by their follower pattern.
bluesky-map.theo.io
February 8, 2026 at 10:59 PM
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
The problem isn’t disagreement. Disagreement is a cornerstone. The problem is when we stop trying to understand why someone holds the view they do.
February 6, 2026 at 5:48 PM
The problem isn’t disagreement. Disagreement is a cornerstone. The problem is when we stop trying to understand why someone holds the view they do.
The problem isn’t disagreement. Disagreement is a cornerstone. The problem is when we stop trying to understand why someone holds the view they do.
February 6, 2026 at 5:48 PM
The problem isn’t disagreement. Disagreement is a cornerstone. The problem is when we stop trying to understand why someone holds the view they do.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
„What would change if every decision had to pass the ‘grandchildren test’?“ 👏👏👏
Most of us won’t be remembered — and that’s OK. But what will your grandchildren inherit from you?
Better legacy
Being a good ancestor in an age of short-term thinking
predirections.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 10:28 AM
„What would change if every decision had to pass the ‘grandchildren test’?“ 👏👏👏
Hey new folks. If you’re interested in #biodiversity, #climate, #water etc, I’d love you to check out and subscribe to my Substack newsletter.
open.substack.com/pub/predirec...
open.substack.com/pub/predirec...
Predirections | Jonathan Tonkin | Substack
Future-focused writing on biodiversity, climate, and water — by Dr. Jonathan Tonkin. Click to read Predirections, by Jonathan Tonkin, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
open.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM
Hey new folks. If you’re interested in #biodiversity, #climate, #water etc, I’d love you to check out and subscribe to my Substack newsletter.
open.substack.com/pub/predirec...
open.substack.com/pub/predirec...
Hear hear
I used to be worried about the fact that I'm a slow reader. These days I'm completely at peace with it. I don't even call it slow reading. I call it two things: reading books the way they're intended to be read, and not being pressured into reading shite because other people told me I should.
Me, ignoring all those Instagram people who claim to read over 100 books per year and doing things at my own pace.
January 27, 2026 at 7:57 AM
Hear hear
The nightmare that continues to unfold in the US reminds me how easily short-term chaos eclipses long-term existential risk — and, understandably, it has to. But societies can’t function when instability like this is continually rewarded.
January 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM
The nightmare that continues to unfold in the US reminds me how easily short-term chaos eclipses long-term existential risk — and, understandably, it has to. But societies can’t function when instability like this is continually rewarded.
Important discussion here
Reading this paper on causal inference and attribution (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... 🌎🌐), I came across this discussion. I used to favour simple models, even if I thought they could be biased, until my PhD cosupervisor (a math person) asked me "why would you choose a biased model?"
January 21, 2026 at 7:05 PM
Important discussion here
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
CWP Director Melissa Scanlan was quoted in a Washington Post article examining a recent U.N. University report finding that the world has entered a state of “water bankruptcy.”
Read the full article from the Washington Post here: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Read the full article from the Washington Post here: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
The world has entered a new era of ‘water bankruptcy,’ U.N. report says
Researchers say this is not merely a temporary crisis, but a permanent failure that requires rethinking the world’s approach to water scarcity.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:50 PM
CWP Director Melissa Scanlan was quoted in a Washington Post article examining a recent U.N. University report finding that the world has entered a state of “water bankruptcy.”
Read the full article from the Washington Post here: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Read the full article from the Washington Post here: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
The warm air mass sitting over New Zealand right now is hammering much of the country, hitting already wet ground in places. These “preconditioned compound events”, where existing conditions amplify impacts, can have massive consequences for humans and ecosystems as we’re already seeing play out.
January 21, 2026 at 4:20 AM
The warm air mass sitting over New Zealand right now is hammering much of the country, hitting already wet ground in places. These “preconditioned compound events”, where existing conditions amplify impacts, can have massive consequences for humans and ecosystems as we’re already seeing play out.
Summer holiday is going well.
January 21, 2026 at 1:57 AM
Summer holiday is going well.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
If biodiversity were a company, it would dwarf the biggest corporations.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
January 16, 2026 at 1:58 AM
If biodiversity were a company, it would dwarf the biggest corporations.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Periodic reminder that without biodiversity, we’re all doomed.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
January 17, 2026 at 2:34 AM
Periodic reminder that without biodiversity, we’re all doomed.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
Periodic reminder that without biodiversity, we’re all doomed.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
January 17, 2026 at 2:34 AM
Periodic reminder that without biodiversity, we’re all doomed.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
Let’s not brush it aside and focus solely on carbon (obviously critical).
Focusing on carbon while sidelining biodiversity is a catastrophic mistake.
Biodiversity isn’t optional. It’s fundamental to our very existence.
If biodiversity were a company, it would dwarf the biggest corporations.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
January 16, 2026 at 1:58 AM
If biodiversity were a company, it would dwarf the biggest corporations.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Its annual contribution to society is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Most of us won’t be remembered — and that’s OK. But what will your grandchildren inherit from you?
Better legacy
Being a good ancestor in an age of short-term thinking
predirections.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Most of us won’t be remembered — and that’s OK. But what will your grandchildren inherit from you?
Most of us won’t be remembered — and that’s OK. But what will your grandchildren inherit from you?
Better legacy
Being a good ancestor in an age of short-term thinking
predirections.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Most of us won’t be remembered — and that’s OK. But what will your grandchildren inherit from you?