Jonathan Tonkin
@jdtonkin.bsky.social
Dad | Associate Professor & Rutherford Discovery Fellow @UCNZ | #ecology, #biodiversity, #forecasting, #freshwater, #climatechange | surf obsessed | https://tonkinlab.org | 18K weekly newsletter. Subscribe: https://predirections.substack.com
New paper alert! We (well, Gabrielle Koerich) modelled distributions of 28 Antarctic moss species using Bayesian spatial models. Results? Moss diversity is shaped by proximity to seabird colonies and water availability, with clear differences between maritime and continental assemblages.
November 13, 2025 at 6:12 AM
New paper alert! We (well, Gabrielle Koerich) modelled distributions of 28 Antarctic moss species using Bayesian spatial models. Results? Moss diversity is shaped by proximity to seabird colonies and water availability, with clear differences between maritime and continental assemblages.
After four days off the grid in the NZ backcountry, I’m excited to be heading to Dunedin to talk complexity at the annual hui (meeting) for @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social, the NZ centre of research excellence in complex systems.
October 20, 2025 at 6:23 PM
After four days off the grid in the NZ backcountry, I’m excited to be heading to Dunedin to talk complexity at the annual hui (meeting) for @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social, the NZ centre of research excellence in complex systems.
Brainstorming what we need to do for one of these car parks at Berkeley.
With @albertruhi.bsky.social and @stefanolarsen.bsky.social
With @albertruhi.bsky.social and @stefanolarsen.bsky.social
October 11, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Brainstorming what we need to do for one of these car parks at Berkeley.
With @albertruhi.bsky.social and @stefanolarsen.bsky.social
With @albertruhi.bsky.social and @stefanolarsen.bsky.social
Post three of a three-part series on some unique aspects of rivers and why they’re so challenging to manage. We’re exploring how rivers function as networks, their unique rhythms, and what that means for conservation and restoration.
predirections.substack.com/p/to-heal-a-...
predirections.substack.com/p/to-heal-a-...
September 15, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Post three of a three-part series on some unique aspects of rivers and why they’re so challenging to manage. We’re exploring how rivers function as networks, their unique rhythms, and what that means for conservation and restoration.
predirections.substack.com/p/to-heal-a-...
predirections.substack.com/p/to-heal-a-...
I’m lichen this!
September 12, 2025 at 6:05 PM
I’m lichen this!
September 5, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Marine heatwaves have devastating effects on marine biodiversity. And they’re on the rise. Impacts have been particularly strong on habitat-forming foundation species like corals, kelp and seagrass. The result? Widespread, cascading impacts on both biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems.
August 24, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Marine heatwaves have devastating effects on marine biodiversity. And they’re on the rise. Impacts have been particularly strong on habitat-forming foundation species like corals, kelp and seagrass. The result? Widespread, cascading impacts on both biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems.
Ridgeline plot of the Yampa River, Colorado over 100y. Each line is an annual hydrograph (plot of discharge / river flow over time) demonstrating the consistency of the spring snowmelt flood pulse 1916-2016. Species like cottonwoods have evolved intricate relationships with these predictable pulses.
August 13, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Ridgeline plot of the Yampa River, Colorado over 100y. Each line is an annual hydrograph (plot of discharge / river flow over time) demonstrating the consistency of the spring snowmelt flood pulse 1916-2016. Species like cottonwoods have evolved intricate relationships with these predictable pulses.
August 12, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Cool sky over Christchurch as a new weather event arrives set to hammer the West Coast.
July 28, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Cool sky over Christchurch as a new weather event arrives set to hammer the West Coast.
Laying tracks while the train moves: why we can't wait for perfect information to save the world
Real change requires policy landscapes that are willing to make room for action under uncertainty. If there’s ever been a moment that requires a willingness to act despite gaps, it’s now.
Real change requires policy landscapes that are willing to make room for action under uncertainty. If there’s ever been a moment that requires a willingness to act despite gaps, it’s now.
July 14, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Laying tracks while the train moves: why we can't wait for perfect information to save the world
Real change requires policy landscapes that are willing to make room for action under uncertainty. If there’s ever been a moment that requires a willingness to act despite gaps, it’s now.
Real change requires policy landscapes that are willing to make room for action under uncertainty. If there’s ever been a moment that requires a willingness to act despite gaps, it’s now.
Publication rates before and after tenure: clear decline post-tenure in non-lab-based fields and sustained in lab-based fields. Super interesting.
arxiv.org/pdf/2411.10575
arxiv.org/pdf/2411.10575
July 7, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Publication rates before and after tenure: clear decline post-tenure in non-lab-based fields and sustained in lab-based fields. Super interesting.
arxiv.org/pdf/2411.10575
arxiv.org/pdf/2411.10575
And their ecological impacts are much more widespread and diverse than is often communicated. Here, I try to put the record straight. I do so while describing a recent paper of ours that introduces a new categorisation of 19 impacts types that invasive species have across ecological hierarchies.
June 27, 2025 at 4:00 AM
And their ecological impacts are much more widespread and diverse than is often communicated. Here, I try to put the record straight. I do so while describing a recent paper of ours that introduces a new categorisation of 19 impacts types that invasive species have across ecological hierarchies.
Slovenia is pretty special!
June 14, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Slovenia is pretty special!
The result?
→ Mistimed migrations
→ Mismatched interactions
→ Declines in survival and reproduction
→ Potential collapses of entire food webs
→ Mistimed migrations
→ Mismatched interactions
→ Declines in survival and reproduction
→ Potential collapses of entire food webs
May 29, 2025 at 10:41 PM
The result?
→ Mistimed migrations
→ Mismatched interactions
→ Declines in survival and reproduction
→ Potential collapses of entire food webs
→ Mistimed migrations
→ Mismatched interactions
→ Declines in survival and reproduction
→ Potential collapses of entire food webs
Climate change and local impacts like dams and deforestation are shifting and disrupting these seasonal cycles.
Earlier springs, erratic rains, altered snowmelts. This isn’t just weather. It’s a systemic change.
Earlier springs, erratic rains, altered snowmelts. This isn’t just weather. It’s a systemic change.
May 29, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Climate change and local impacts like dams and deforestation are shifting and disrupting these seasonal cycles.
Earlier springs, erratic rains, altered snowmelts. This isn’t just weather. It’s a systemic change.
Earlier springs, erratic rains, altered snowmelts. This isn’t just weather. It’s a systemic change.
Our new research led by University of Canterbury PhD student Daniel Hernández-Carrasco and co-authored by myself, Jason Tylianakis, and David Lytle shows that the ecological impacts of altered seasonality may be more far-reaching than previously recognised.
May 29, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Our new research led by University of Canterbury PhD student Daniel Hernández-Carrasco and co-authored by myself, Jason Tylianakis, and David Lytle shows that the ecological impacts of altered seasonality may be more far-reaching than previously recognised.
What's the worst that can happen?
Climate change is predicted to bring more frequent extreme events, from floods to droughts and heatwaves and any combination of the above.
Yet, at times, it feels like we're collectively turning a blind eye.
Climate change is predicted to bring more frequent extreme events, from floods to droughts and heatwaves and any combination of the above.
Yet, at times, it feels like we're collectively turning a blind eye.
May 14, 2025 at 7:57 AM
What's the worst that can happen?
Climate change is predicted to bring more frequent extreme events, from floods to droughts and heatwaves and any combination of the above.
Yet, at times, it feels like we're collectively turning a blind eye.
Climate change is predicted to bring more frequent extreme events, from floods to droughts and heatwaves and any combination of the above.
Yet, at times, it feels like we're collectively turning a blind eye.
Latest Nexus Notes post is out.
In this edition: a new research agenda to guide businesses in their nature positive journey, short-term fixes post disaster, a new invasive species impact typology, Tony Blair, and something fun for the dads out there.
predirections.substack.com/p/nexus-note...
In this edition: a new research agenda to guide businesses in their nature positive journey, short-term fixes post disaster, a new invasive species impact typology, Tony Blair, and something fun for the dads out there.
predirections.substack.com/p/nexus-note...
May 6, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Latest Nexus Notes post is out.
In this edition: a new research agenda to guide businesses in their nature positive journey, short-term fixes post disaster, a new invasive species impact typology, Tony Blair, and something fun for the dads out there.
predirections.substack.com/p/nexus-note...
In this edition: a new research agenda to guide businesses in their nature positive journey, short-term fixes post disaster, a new invasive species impact typology, Tony Blair, and something fun for the dads out there.
predirections.substack.com/p/nexus-note...
The aliens have arrived. I thought they’d look different.
May 3, 2025 at 6:13 AM
The aliens have arrived. I thought they’d look different.
Heathcote River over its banks in places this morning.
April 30, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Heathcote River over its banks in places this morning.
Even if you’re not an early career researcher, there should be something useful for you here.
If you found this helpful, consider sharing it with someone just starting out—or someone mentoring them.
If you found this helpful, consider sharing it with someone just starting out—or someone mentoring them.
April 29, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Even if you’re not an early career researcher, there should be something useful for you here.
If you found this helpful, consider sharing it with someone just starting out—or someone mentoring them.
If you found this helpful, consider sharing it with someone just starting out—or someone mentoring them.
