@irgetsreal.bsky.social
Professor of International Relations, Georgetown. Former DoD and Senate staff. Foreign policy, political science, case study methods, environment, snark.
In 1910, British General Wilson asked the French General Foch “How many British soldiers would you need to defend against Germany?”
Foch replied “A single British soldier—and we will see to it that he is killed” (which would bring Britain into the war).
Tripwire time in Greenland.
Foch replied “A single British soldier—and we will see to it that he is killed” (which would bring Britain into the war).
Tripwire time in Greenland.
BREAKING: The UK is sending a single military officer to Greenland at the request of Denmark to participate in a multi-nation exercise
January 14, 2026 at 11:20 PM
In 1910, British General Wilson asked the French General Foch “How many British soldiers would you need to defend against Germany?”
Foch replied “A single British soldier—and we will see to it that he is killed” (which would bring Britain into the war).
Tripwire time in Greenland.
Foch replied “A single British soldier—and we will see to it that he is killed” (which would bring Britain into the war).
Tripwire time in Greenland.
Reposted
Excellent essay . Also : Why we study comparative politics
If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:
America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.
What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.
What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
January 13, 2026 at 1:26 PM
Excellent essay . Also : Why we study comparative politics
Goldfinger: I plan to destroy Fort Knox with a nuclear weapon, and gold will go up to $4600 an ounce.
Bond: Why don’t you just convince the President to prosecute the Chair of the Fed on false charges? Same result.
G: . . .
B: . . .
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
Bond: Why don’t you just convince the President to prosecute the Chair of the Fed on false charges? Same result.
G: . . .
B: . . .
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
January 12, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Goldfinger: I plan to destroy Fort Knox with a nuclear weapon, and gold will go up to $4600 an ounce.
Bond: Why don’t you just convince the President to prosecute the Chair of the Fed on false charges? Same result.
G: . . .
B: . . .
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
Bond: Why don’t you just convince the President to prosecute the Chair of the Fed on false charges? Same result.
G: . . .
B: . . .
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
WH pool photo of today’s meeting of Trump and oil execs
January 9, 2026 at 2:51 PM
WH pool photo of today’s meeting of Trump and oil execs
Oil company execs meeting w Trump today to divide up the spoils of Venezuela.
Reminds me of the good old days of imperialism and robber baron capitalism.
Reminds me of the good old days of imperialism and robber baron capitalism.
January 9, 2026 at 12:05 PM
Oil company execs meeting w Trump today to divide up the spoils of Venezuela.
Reminds me of the good old days of imperialism and robber baron capitalism.
Reminds me of the good old days of imperialism and robber baron capitalism.
Reposted
An insurgency may not arise quickly in Venezuela, but eventually one is likely as all the pieces identified by research are in place:
—strong majority of the populace is angry at their govt and everyone knows it (no preference falsification)
—strong majority of the populace is angry at their govt and everyone knows it (no preference falsification)
January 8, 2026 at 2:04 PM
An insurgency may not arise quickly in Venezuela, but eventually one is likely as all the pieces identified by research are in place:
—strong majority of the populace is angry at their govt and everyone knows it (no preference falsification)
—strong majority of the populace is angry at their govt and everyone knows it (no preference falsification)
When people invest they drop fantasies about the future, whether about the stability of the climate or of governments.
Insurance prices for properties vulnerable to climate change are up.
Oil company stocks after Trump grabbed Maduro and left his regime intact are not.
Insurance prices for properties vulnerable to climate change are up.
Oil company stocks after Trump grabbed Maduro and left his regime intact are not.
January 8, 2026 at 1:31 PM
When people invest they drop fantasies about the future, whether about the stability of the climate or of governments.
Insurance prices for properties vulnerable to climate change are up.
Oil company stocks after Trump grabbed Maduro and left his regime intact are not.
Insurance prices for properties vulnerable to climate change are up.
Oil company stocks after Trump grabbed Maduro and left his regime intact are not.
Reposted
Just got this in the mail and eager to dig in. Jervis would have a lot to say right now! Delighted to have a piece in the volume with @profsaunders.bsky.social
January 5, 2026 at 10:28 PM
Just got this in the mail and eager to dig in. Jervis would have a lot to say right now! Delighted to have a piece in the volume with @profsaunders.bsky.social
Reposted
some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
January 6, 2026 at 5:14 PM
some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
Chevron stock is up only 4% since the kidnapping of Maduro. Looks like investors are not at all convinced Venezuela will be a big growth market for them (Exxon up only 1%).
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
January 6, 2026 at 8:59 PM
Chevron stock is up only 4% since the kidnapping of Maduro. Looks like investors are not at all convinced Venezuela will be a big growth market for them (Exxon up only 1%).
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
Reposted
Apropos current events, I want to tout this paper by @soyounglee.bsky.social showing that discussion of economic benefits can reduce public support for military action. People are skeptical when they think specific groups (e.g., oil companies) will benefit.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 5, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Apropos current events, I want to tout this paper by @soyounglee.bsky.social showing that discussion of economic benefits can reduce public support for military action. People are skeptical when they think specific groups (e.g., oil companies) will benefit.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted
US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Venezuela’s Men With Guns Remain the Ultimate Power After Maduro’s Ouster
Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino command Venezuela’s police and military, and represent a wild card for Trump.
www.wsj.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:05 PM
US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Reposted
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
January 5, 2026 at 1:50 PM
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
The Trump-Rubio vision for the future of Venezuela is not polling well.
January 5, 2026 at 1:08 PM
The Trump-Rubio vision for the future of Venezuela is not polling well.
If you ever wondered what would happen if someone in the “get off my lawn” stage of grouchy dementia had complete control of US foreign policy, well, now you know.
January 5, 2026 at 1:00 PM
If you ever wondered what would happen if someone in the “get off my lawn” stage of grouchy dementia had complete control of US foreign policy, well, now you know.
Reposted
Six months ago @profmichaelross.bsky.social and I wrote in Foreign Affairs that the US is increasingly behaving like a petrostate. Seems relevant today
I have a new short piece in Foreign Affairs with @profmichaelross.bsky.social arguing that "the United States’ emergence as the world’s leading oil and gas producer is a critical and often neglected element of today’s global disorder." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Petrostate America
The downsides of energy independence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Six months ago @profmichaelross.bsky.social and I wrote in Foreign Affairs that the US is increasingly behaving like a petrostate. Seems relevant today
“Legitimize” (in last sentence) is not the proper word here. More like “enforce the same bloody repression of the Maduro regime, this time with US backing.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
Trump Plunges the U.S. Into a New Era of Risk in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:48 PM
“Legitimize” (in last sentence) is not the proper word here. More like “enforce the same bloody repression of the Maduro regime, this time with US backing.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
I seem to recall there are reasons everyone stopped doing 19th century versions of gunboat diplomacy, colonialism, and imperialism.
January 5, 2026 at 12:40 PM
I seem to recall there are reasons everyone stopped doing 19th century versions of gunboat diplomacy, colonialism, and imperialism.
Will be interesting to see today what happens to Chevron and/versus other oil company stocks, and oil prices.
January 5, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Will be interesting to see today what happens to Chevron and/versus other oil company stocks, and oil prices.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
Exclusive: Venezuelan leaders offered U.S. a path to stay in power without Maduro
Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez used Doha backchannels to offer Washington a 'Cartel Light' plan for a managed Venezuela transition that keeps chavismo in power.
www.miamiherald.com
January 4, 2026 at 1:02 PM
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
Reposted
1. Look, there are basically just two ways to run the global oil market: petro-imperialism and petro-consumerism. Historically USA has embraced both, varying over time. The attack on #Venezuela is a return to naked petro-imperialism. Thread.
January 3, 2026 at 6:51 PM
1. Look, there are basically just two ways to run the global oil market: petro-imperialism and petro-consumerism. Historically USA has embraced both, varying over time. The attack on #Venezuela is a return to naked petro-imperialism. Thread.
Some random thoughts on day 2:
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
January 4, 2026 at 10:50 AM
Some random thoughts on day 2:
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
Reposted
“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.
The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela
If past is prologue, a U.S. attempt to overthrow Maduro would not end well.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 3, 2026 at 7:17 PM
“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.