@irgetsreal.bsky.social
Professor of International Relations, Georgetown. Former DoD and Senate staff. Foreign policy, political science, case study methods, environment, snark.
Ouch! Feeling kind of old as one of that “earlier generation” that engaged in “shopworn” debates :)
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Check out my review of some exciting new books in qualitative methods!
November 8, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Ouch! Feeling kind of old as one of that “earlier generation” that engaged in “shopworn” debates :)
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Will be very funny if Republican gerrymandering spreads out their votes and they lose even more seats in a big wave election in the midterms like the one we saw this week.
November 7, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Will be very funny if Republican gerrymandering spreads out their votes and they lose even more seats in a big wave election in the midterms like the one we saw this week.
Reposted
Paul Musgrave with a political science-centric obituary for Dick Cheney. musgrave.substack.com/p/dick-chene...
Dick Cheney, ABD
Remembering the greatest alt-ac of them all
musgrave.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Paul Musgrave with a political science-centric obituary for Dick Cheney. musgrave.substack.com/p/dick-chene...
It turns out that knocking down a wing of the WH to build yourself a gilded ballroom when people are struggling to pay for food and health care is not a winning electoral strategy.
November 5, 2025 at 11:57 AM
It turns out that knocking down a wing of the WH to build yourself a gilded ballroom when people are struggling to pay for food and health care is not a winning electoral strategy.
The only way to break Trump’s hold over spineless Republicans in Congress is to make them fear the general electorate more than they fear getting primaried by Trump.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
November 5, 2025 at 10:31 AM
The only way to break Trump’s hold over spineless Republicans in Congress is to make them fear the general electorate more than they fear getting primaried by Trump.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
Reposted
The factional grifters will hate this, but the Mamdani-Spanberger-Sherrill axis actually suggests the outlines of a broad, emerging Dem coalition organized around both anti-Trump *and* affordability politics, not a party bitterly divided against itself.
These big wins will embolden Dems to take on Trump's lawbreaking and show there's a price for GOP enabling of him. Folks hate to hear this, but normal patterns are asserting themselves: Liberalism isn't dead, Rs are likely to lose in 2026, and Trump is really unpopular, not a magical exception.
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 AM
The factional grifters will hate this, but the Mamdani-Spanberger-Sherrill axis actually suggests the outlines of a broad, emerging Dem coalition organized around both anti-Trump *and* affordability politics, not a party bitterly divided against itself.
NYT map on vote shift in BA compared to 2024. Not a single red arrow in even the most rural areas.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
November 5, 2025 at 10:02 AM
NYT map on vote shift in BA compared to 2024. Not a single red arrow in even the most rural areas.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
Is there anywhere, at any level, that Trump did well yesterday, or better than expected?
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
November 5, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Is there anywhere, at any level, that Trump did well yesterday, or better than expected?
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
The thing about competitive authoritarianism is that the incumbents can lose even after tilting the playing field.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
November 5, 2025 at 9:54 AM
The thing about competitive authoritarianism is that the incumbents can lose even after tilting the playing field.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
Biggest election surprise: 13 point win by Sherill (w 95% counted).
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
November 5, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Biggest election surprise: 13 point win by Sherill (w 95% counted).
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
NYT today.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.
November 4, 2025 at 9:42 AM
NYT today.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.
Stock investors still don’t get it.
It is not just that Trump dropped the market 2% in a day with a tweet.
It is that he can do that every day for three years with tariffs, corruption, cancellation of green projects and blue state programs, and abuses of the legal system. Chaos kills investment.
It is not just that Trump dropped the market 2% in a day with a tweet.
It is that he can do that every day for three years with tariffs, corruption, cancellation of green projects and blue state programs, and abuses of the legal system. Chaos kills investment.
October 11, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Stock investors still don’t get it.
It is not just that Trump dropped the market 2% in a day with a tweet.
It is that he can do that every day for three years with tariffs, corruption, cancellation of green projects and blue state programs, and abuses of the legal system. Chaos kills investment.
It is not just that Trump dropped the market 2% in a day with a tweet.
It is that he can do that every day for three years with tariffs, corruption, cancellation of green projects and blue state programs, and abuses of the legal system. Chaos kills investment.
Goldfinger: I lan to destroy Fort Knox with a nuclear weapon, and gold will go up to $4000 an ounce.
Bond: Why not just get a narcissist elected President so he can run the economy like an oligarchic squirrel on crack? Same result.
G:
B:
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
Bond: Why not just get a narcissist elected President so he can run the economy like an oligarchic squirrel on crack? Same result.
G:
B:
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
October 8, 2025 at 5:26 AM
Goldfinger: I lan to destroy Fort Knox with a nuclear weapon, and gold will go up to $4000 an ounce.
Bond: Why not just get a narcissist elected President so he can run the economy like an oligarchic squirrel on crack? Same result.
G:
B:
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
Bond: Why not just get a narcissist elected President so he can run the economy like an oligarchic squirrel on crack? Same result.
G:
B:
G: This mofo is crazy let’s laser him in half.
I think I figured out why Hesketh hates soldiers with beards
October 2, 2025 at 1:24 PM
I think I figured out why Hesketh hates soldiers with beards
Reposted
STEPHANOPOULOS: Hold on a second. Answer the question. As Speaker, do you believe it's appropriate to use American cities as training grounds for the military, calling those people 'the enemy within'?
JOHNSON: I'm not comment on your characterization of what the president said.
S: Those are quotes
JOHNSON: I'm not comment on your characterization of what the president said.
S: Those are quotes
October 1, 2025 at 1:05 PM
STEPHANOPOULOS: Hold on a second. Answer the question. As Speaker, do you believe it's appropriate to use American cities as training grounds for the military, calling those people 'the enemy within'?
JOHNSON: I'm not comment on your characterization of what the president said.
S: Those are quotes
JOHNSON: I'm not comment on your characterization of what the president said.
S: Those are quotes
Caption this:
October 1, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Caption this:
Nexstar and Sinclair, the companies that control local TV stations, have ended their boycott of Kimmel.
Not because they suddenly saw the light on free speech, but because enough viewers complained.
Turns out boycotts work both ways.
Not because they suddenly saw the light on free speech, but because enough viewers complained.
Turns out boycotts work both ways.
September 27, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Nexstar and Sinclair, the companies that control local TV stations, have ended their boycott of Kimmel.
Not because they suddenly saw the light on free speech, but because enough viewers complained.
Turns out boycotts work both ways.
Not because they suddenly saw the light on free speech, but because enough viewers complained.
Turns out boycotts work both ways.
This is the stock price of Ørsted, the company making a nearly complete wind farm off Rhode Island that Trump cancelled and a judge later reinstated.
This is the kind of chaos that prevents business investment.
This is the kind of chaos that prevents business investment.
September 27, 2025 at 10:18 AM
This is the stock price of Ørsted, the company making a nearly complete wind farm off Rhode Island that Trump cancelled and a judge later reinstated.
This is the kind of chaos that prevents business investment.
This is the kind of chaos that prevents business investment.
Surprised a grand jury indicted Comey.
My guess is Bondi and co, knowing GJ proceedings are sealed, fed the GJ a load of BS and don’t care about the prospect of a judge later naming and shaming them for prosecutorial misconduct.
Interested to hear from actual GJ experts.
My guess is Bondi and co, knowing GJ proceedings are sealed, fed the GJ a load of BS and don’t care about the prospect of a judge later naming and shaming them for prosecutorial misconduct.
Interested to hear from actual GJ experts.
September 26, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Surprised a grand jury indicted Comey.
My guess is Bondi and co, knowing GJ proceedings are sealed, fed the GJ a load of BS and don’t care about the prospect of a judge later naming and shaming them for prosecutorial misconduct.
Interested to hear from actual GJ experts.
My guess is Bondi and co, knowing GJ proceedings are sealed, fed the GJ a load of BS and don’t care about the prospect of a judge later naming and shaming them for prosecutorial misconduct.
Interested to hear from actual GJ experts.
While I oppose pretty much everything RFK has done at HHS, including his bad tan and workouts in jeans, as a Bayesian, I think the decision to approve leucovorin (folic acid) as a treatment for autism makes sense.
It also reveals a few things that are wrong with the drug approval process.
It also reveals a few things that are wrong with the drug approval process.
September 24, 2025 at 9:54 PM
While I oppose pretty much everything RFK has done at HHS, including his bad tan and workouts in jeans, as a Bayesian, I think the decision to approve leucovorin (folic acid) as a treatment for autism makes sense.
It also reveals a few things that are wrong with the drug approval process.
It also reveals a few things that are wrong with the drug approval process.
Congratulations to GWU Professor @jeffreyding.bsky.social as the winner of the Georgetown University Lepgold Prize for his book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers!
He will be giving a book talk on Nov. 19 at the GU Mortara Center; for details follow
@mortaracenter.bsky.social
He will be giving a book talk on Nov. 19 at the GU Mortara Center; for details follow
@mortaracenter.bsky.social
www.eventbrite.com
September 16, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Congratulations to GWU Professor @jeffreyding.bsky.social as the winner of the Georgetown University Lepgold Prize for his book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers!
He will be giving a book talk on Nov. 19 at the GU Mortara Center; for details follow
@mortaracenter.bsky.social
He will be giving a book talk on Nov. 19 at the GU Mortara Center; for details follow
@mortaracenter.bsky.social
Trump is doing to the military academies what he would like to do to all universities: purging them of faculty who don’t agree with him and censoring the curriculum.
I just had a talk canceled at West Point. At least I am in good company with Tom Hanks.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
I just had a talk canceled at West Point. At least I am in good company with Tom Hanks.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Inside Pete Hegseth’s Civilian Purge at West Point
What do Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth have against soldiers listening to civilians?
www.politico.com
September 12, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Trump is doing to the military academies what he would like to do to all universities: purging them of faculty who don’t agree with him and censoring the curriculum.
I just had a talk canceled at West Point. At least I am in good company with Tom Hanks.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
I just had a talk canceled at West Point. At least I am in good company with Tom Hanks.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Would be great if Trump executed the International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Putin if he does not yield to Ukraine’s demands.
US and Turkey are the only NATO members Putin can visit as they are not in the ICC.
US and Turkey are the only NATO members Putin can visit as they are not in the ICC.
August 14, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Would be great if Trump executed the International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Putin if he does not yield to Ukraine’s demands.
US and Turkey are the only NATO members Putin can visit as they are not in the ICC.
US and Turkey are the only NATO members Putin can visit as they are not in the ICC.
There are lies, damned lies, and new BLS head Antoni.
MAGA statistics: Antoni is the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation. He has been a relentless booster of Trump’s policies on social media. And he has demonstrated time and again that he does not understand economic statistics www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-...
Trump Wants a Bureau of MAGA Statistics | National Review
President Trump has nominated an unqualified economist to take over one of America’s most important statistical agencies.
www.nationalreview.com
August 13, 2025 at 11:56 AM
There are lies, damned lies, and new BLS head Antoni.
Reposted
"America’s global classroom is emptying" qz.com/internationa...
August 13, 2025 at 11:32 AM
"America’s global classroom is emptying" qz.com/internationa...