@irgetsreal.bsky.social
Professor of International Relations, Georgetown. Former DoD and Senate staff. Foreign policy, political science, case study methods, environment, snark.
Reposted
Just got this in the mail and eager to dig in. Jervis would have a lot to say right now! Delighted to have a piece in the volume with @profsaunders.bsky.social
January 5, 2026 at 10:28 PM
Just got this in the mail and eager to dig in. Jervis would have a lot to say right now! Delighted to have a piece in the volume with @profsaunders.bsky.social
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some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
January 6, 2026 at 5:14 PM
some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
Chevron stock is up only 4% since the kidnapping of Maduro. Looks like investors are not at all convinced Venezuela will be a big growth market for them (Exxon up only 1%).
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
January 6, 2026 at 8:59 PM
Chevron stock is up only 4% since the kidnapping of Maduro. Looks like investors are not at all convinced Venezuela will be a big growth market for them (Exxon up only 1%).
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
For this Trump trashed America’s international reputation.
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Apropos current events, I want to tout this paper by @soyounglee.bsky.social showing that discussion of economic benefits can reduce public support for military action. People are skeptical when they think specific groups (e.g., oil companies) will benefit.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 5, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Apropos current events, I want to tout this paper by @soyounglee.bsky.social showing that discussion of economic benefits can reduce public support for military action. People are skeptical when they think specific groups (e.g., oil companies) will benefit.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Venezuela’s Men With Guns Remain the Ultimate Power After Maduro’s Ouster
Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino command Venezuela’s police and military, and represent a wild card for Trump.
www.wsj.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:05 PM
US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
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🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
January 5, 2026 at 1:50 PM
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
The Trump-Rubio vision for the future of Venezuela is not polling well.
January 5, 2026 at 1:08 PM
The Trump-Rubio vision for the future of Venezuela is not polling well.
If you ever wondered what would happen if someone in the “get off my lawn” stage of grouchy dementia had complete control of US foreign policy, well, now you know.
January 5, 2026 at 1:00 PM
If you ever wondered what would happen if someone in the “get off my lawn” stage of grouchy dementia had complete control of US foreign policy, well, now you know.
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Six months ago @profmichaelross.bsky.social and I wrote in Foreign Affairs that the US is increasingly behaving like a petrostate. Seems relevant today
I have a new short piece in Foreign Affairs with @profmichaelross.bsky.social arguing that "the United States’ emergence as the world’s leading oil and gas producer is a critical and often neglected element of today’s global disorder." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Petrostate America
The downsides of energy independence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Six months ago @profmichaelross.bsky.social and I wrote in Foreign Affairs that the US is increasingly behaving like a petrostate. Seems relevant today
“Legitimize” (in last sentence) is not the proper word here. More like “enforce the same bloody repression of the Maduro regime, this time with US backing.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
Trump Plunges the U.S. Into a New Era of Risk in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:48 PM
“Legitimize” (in last sentence) is not the proper word here. More like “enforce the same bloody repression of the Maduro regime, this time with US backing.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
I seem to recall there are reasons everyone stopped doing 19th century versions of gunboat diplomacy, colonialism, and imperialism.
January 5, 2026 at 12:40 PM
I seem to recall there are reasons everyone stopped doing 19th century versions of gunboat diplomacy, colonialism, and imperialism.
Will be interesting to see today what happens to Chevron and/versus other oil company stocks, and oil prices.
January 5, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Will be interesting to see today what happens to Chevron and/versus other oil company stocks, and oil prices.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
Exclusive: Venezuelan leaders offered U.S. a path to stay in power without Maduro
Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez used Doha backchannels to offer Washington a 'Cartel Light' plan for a managed Venezuela transition that keeps chavismo in power.
www.miamiherald.com
January 4, 2026 at 1:02 PM
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
More cannon fodder for @abenewman.bsky.social on neoroyalism.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
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It’s sobering to look back on the run-up to the Iraq war—a period of unceasing chattering-class debate, elaborate official lies, media complicity, unavailing global protest, in the end a giant stitch-up—and have it seem like some sort of paradise of public deliberation compared to these gangsters.
January 3, 2026 at 9:51 PM
It’s sobering to look back on the run-up to the Iraq war—a period of unceasing chattering-class debate, elaborate official lies, media complicity, unavailing global protest, in the end a giant stitch-up—and have it seem like some sort of paradise of public deliberation compared to these gangsters.
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1. Look, there are basically just two ways to run the global oil market: petro-imperialism and petro-consumerism. Historically USA has embraced both, varying over time. The attack on #Venezuela is a return to naked petro-imperialism. Thread.
January 3, 2026 at 6:51 PM
1. Look, there are basically just two ways to run the global oil market: petro-imperialism and petro-consumerism. Historically USA has embraced both, varying over time. The attack on #Venezuela is a return to naked petro-imperialism. Thread.
Some random thoughts on day 2:
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
January 4, 2026 at 10:50 AM
Some random thoughts on day 2:
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
—Trump is using 19th century tactics to try to grab 20th century resources . Meanwhile China is building the 21st century green economy that Trump is trying to choke to death in the US.
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“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.
The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela
If past is prologue, a U.S. attempt to overthrow Maduro would not end well.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 3, 2026 at 7:17 PM
“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.
Great thread. If there are in fact no US casualties it is remarkable. Would require lots of luck, planning, and some insider help (last two already reported). Hegseth gets a lifeline.
In contrast Iran hostage rescue was a disaster and Bin Laden raid a close call re helicopters.
In contrast Iran hostage rescue was a disaster and Bin Laden raid a close call re helicopters.
Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address.
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
January 3, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Great thread. If there are in fact no US casualties it is remarkable. Would require lots of luck, planning, and some insider help (last two already reported). Hegseth gets a lifeline.
In contrast Iran hostage rescue was a disaster and Bin Laden raid a close call re helicopters.
In contrast Iran hostage rescue was a disaster and Bin Laden raid a close call re helicopters.
OK, so let’s indulge in the inside the beltway parlor game du jour: speculating about wtf Susie Wiles is up to.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
December 17, 2025 at 1:31 PM
OK, so let’s indulge in the inside the beltway parlor game du jour: speculating about wtf Susie Wiles is up to.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
This resonates with @jeffreyding.Baku.social Lepgold Prize winning book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers. Ding argues that it is not the country that discovers a new tech but the one that engineers and scales it that wins.
Finished Dan Wang's terrific book on China's engineering, its strengths & weaknesses. He contrasted the lawyerly state in the U.S. that impedes construction of new infrastructure & laments that turn. Lawyers seem to be only ones thus far slowing Trump's authoritarian turn. Wonder Wang's views now?
December 16, 2025 at 12:42 PM
This resonates with @jeffreyding.Baku.social Lepgold Prize winning book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers. Ding argues that it is not the country that discovers a new tech but the one that engineers and scales it that wins.
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December 10, 2025 at 1:36 PM
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When my mom had a medication interaction that seemed like a severe stroke, she took three cognitive tests, the last one in front of large numbers of doctors and experts, most of whom she did not know.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
December 10, 2025 at 1:12 PM
When my mom had a medication interaction that seemed like a severe stroke, she took three cognitive tests, the last one in front of large numbers of doctors and experts, most of whom she did not know.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
Trump’s $12 billion farm bailout is limited to producers with an adjusted gross income of $900,000 or less.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.
December 9, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Trump’s $12 billion farm bailout is limited to producers with an adjusted gross income of $900,000 or less.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.