Hunter Marston
@hmarston.bsky.social
PhD, IR @anubellschool.bsky.social. Hedging, SE Asia, great power competition, #Myanmar. Adjunct Fellow @seasia.csis.org. Associate @9Dashline.com. Ultra runner. Father.
Pinned
A Rigged Election Is No Reason to Reengage Myanmar
Washington’s outreach to Myanmar’s junta is shortsighted.
foreignpolicy.com
"Rather than upend U.S. policy by engaging the generals in Naypyidaw, Washington should increase its support for #Myanmar’s opposition and civil society leaders, who will build the next generation of the country’s democracy." My latest @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/09/m...
Reposted by Hunter Marston
It’s a loyalty test. It’s always a loyalty test. And every time Republicans feign ignorance or hem and haw, it gives him the green light to go even further.
BREAKING: Trump says he 'didn't make a mistake' with his racist video post.
Q: "A number of Republicans are calling on you to apologize for that post. Is that something you're going to do?"
Trump: "No, I didn't make a mistake."
He adds later: "I guess it was a take off on the Lion King."
Q: "A number of Republicans are calling on you to apologize for that post. Is that something you're going to do?"
Trump: "No, I didn't make a mistake."
He adds later: "I guess it was a take off on the Lion King."
February 7, 2026 at 1:34 AM
It’s a loyalty test. It’s always a loyalty test. And every time Republicans feign ignorance or hem and haw, it gives him the green light to go even further.
Friday nights are a little different these days.
February 7, 2026 at 2:02 AM
Friday nights are a little different these days.
"Marston said he believes this single-minded attention to the trade dispute risks eroding trust [and] upending the extraordinary progress in bilateral relations which brought the United States and Vietnam to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership [in 2023]." www.upi.com/Top_News/Wor...
New U.S. envoy to Vietnam will inherit $144B trade standoff - UPI.com
U.S. officials say tariffs are needed to prevent Vietnam from becoming a backdoor for Chinese manufacturing, but in Hanoi, they're seen as punishment.
www.upi.com
February 6, 2026 at 7:05 PM
"Marston said he believes this single-minded attention to the trade dispute risks eroding trust [and] upending the extraordinary progress in bilateral relations which brought the United States and Vietnam to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership [in 2023]." www.upi.com/Top_News/Wor...
"A.I. social media ought to be thought of more as a form of science fiction and storytelling rather than as a demonstration of collective planning and coordination by intelligent parties. We need to be serious about separating the fiction from the software." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/o...
Opinion | The Bots Are Plotting a Revolution, and It’s All Very Cringe
www.nytimes.com
February 5, 2026 at 7:10 PM
"A.I. social media ought to be thought of more as a form of science fiction and storytelling rather than as a demonstration of collective planning and coordination by intelligent parties. We need to be serious about separating the fiction from the software." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/o...
This subheading I think gets it exactly right re: #Vietnam's preternatural mistrust of US strategic intentions: "Trump’s second administration softens some concerns, but raises more" www.seattletimes.com/nation-world...
An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war
An internal document reveals Vietnam's military is preparing for a possible American war of aggression, viewing the U.S. as a "belligerent" power.
www.seattletimes.com
February 4, 2026 at 9:15 PM
This subheading I think gets it exactly right re: #Vietnam's preternatural mistrust of US strategic intentions: "Trump’s second administration softens some concerns, but raises more" www.seattletimes.com/nation-world...
Reposted by Hunter Marston
“The Trump administration appears to believe it can prey on other states forever, and that doing so will make the United States even stronger,” writes @stephenwalt.bsky.social. But “predatory hegemony contains the seeds of its own destruction.”
The Predatory Hegemon
Ever since Donald Trump first became U.S. president, in 2017, commentators have searched for an adequate label to describe his approach to U.S. foreign relations. Writing in these pages, the political...
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 3, 2026 at 10:18 PM
“The Trump administration appears to believe it can prey on other states forever, and that doing so will make the United States even stronger,” writes @stephenwalt.bsky.social. But “predatory hegemony contains the seeds of its own destruction.”
"No serious country is trying to wall itself off from American trade or investment. But they are preparing for a world in which access to the U.S. market can no longer be taken for granted—and in which Washington’s rules, once predictable, can change abruptly." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Asian countries hedge against China — and America
Unpredictable superpowers lead smaller countries to lean on each other for economic growth.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM
"No serious country is trying to wall itself off from American trade or investment. But they are preparing for a world in which access to the U.S. market can no longer be taken for granted—and in which Washington’s rules, once predictable, can change abruptly." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Rather than mediate between the junta and ASEAN, the more pressing issue is for someone with FM Sihasak's power & influence to bring the #Myanmar military to the negotiating table with resistance groups & popularly elected leaders from the 2020 election: www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/gen...
Govt 'ready to act' as Asean mediator
Thailand is ready to act as a mediator to help restore relations between Asean and Myanmar, Foreign Affairs Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said after a meeting with the National Security Council (NSC)...
www.bangkokpost.com
February 3, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Rather than mediate between the junta and ASEAN, the more pressing issue is for someone with FM Sihasak's power & influence to bring the #Myanmar military to the negotiating table with resistance groups & popularly elected leaders from the 2020 election: www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/gen...
Reposted by Hunter Marston
"In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports that expose it to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitical pressure" www.9dashline.com/article/euro... | by Kristofers Krumins
9DASHLINE — Europe's dependency on critical minerals: How China keeps EU industry on a tight leash
Written by Kristofers Krumins. In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports, exposed to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitica...
www.9dashline.com
February 3, 2026 at 6:05 PM
"In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports that expose it to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitical pressure" www.9dashline.com/article/euro... | by Kristofers Krumins
I've never been a fan of the term "shadow government," but after 5 years it's difficult to say the NUG is anything but a govt in the shadows. Despite the #Myanmar military's lack of territorial control & the farcical nature of elections it has more guns & resources: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Government in Exile Teeters on Irrelevance
www.nytimes.com
February 2, 2026 at 5:09 PM
I've never been a fan of the term "shadow government," but after 5 years it's difficult to say the NUG is anything but a govt in the shadows. Despite the #Myanmar military's lack of territorial control & the farcical nature of elections it has more guns & resources: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
"In an era of strongman diplomacy, To Lam’s Vietnam is not tilting toward Washington or Beijing. It is positioning itself to bargain with both — from a position of consolidated strength." www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/era-of-stron...
Era of Strongman Diplomacy: Lam’s Ascent Reshapes US–Vietnam Ties
In an era of strongman diplomacy, To Lam’s Vietnam is not tilting toward Washington or Beijing. It is positioning itself to bargain with both — from a position of consolidated strength.
www.geopoliticalmonitor.com
January 30, 2026 at 9:34 PM
"In an era of strongman diplomacy, To Lam’s Vietnam is not tilting toward Washington or Beijing. It is positioning itself to bargain with both — from a position of consolidated strength." www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/era-of-stron...
"The rupture should....present an opportunity for Southeast Asia and the majority world to rewrite the global order in a different way; one that, at minimum, disrupts the manipulative trajectory of the old order." Great piece by Elina Noor: www.scmp.com/opinion/worl...
Opinion | Why Southeast Asia should not fear Trump’s disruption
Instead of joining Trump’s neocolonial ‘Board of Peace’, Southeast Asian leaders should seize the chance to help rebuild a global order that is just and equitable.
www.scmp.com
January 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM
"The rupture should....present an opportunity for Southeast Asia and the majority world to rewrite the global order in a different way; one that, at minimum, disrupts the manipulative trajectory of the old order." Great piece by Elina Noor: www.scmp.com/opinion/worl...
ASEAN's consensus-based approach is a major issue. It wasn't easy to get consensus in the 1st place. Virtually impossible to do so again. The 5PC was actually good on paper (ceasefire + talks). Problem was #Myanmar's military never intended to implement what it agreed to. apnews.com/article/myan...
ASEAN to stick to Myanmar peace plan despite its failure to stop deadly civil war
Thailand’s top diplomat says that a 5-year-old plan by Southeast Asian leaders to end Myanmar’s civil war has failed but could still help restore peace.
apnews.com
January 30, 2026 at 3:56 PM
ASEAN's consensus-based approach is a major issue. It wasn't easy to get consensus in the 1st place. Virtually impossible to do so again. The 5PC was actually good on paper (ceasefire + talks). Problem was #Myanmar's military never intended to implement what it agreed to. apnews.com/article/myan...
"Indonesia’s plan to create 750 new territorial infantry battalions rests on an unclear threat perception, offers limited strategic value in a modern conflict, and diverts scarce resources from essential modernization in the air, maritime, space, and cyber domains." warontherocks.com/2026/01/indo...
Indonesia’s One Million Soldiers Questions
When journalists or policy experts fretfully discuss arms racing and military buildups in the Indo-Pacific, they tend to focus on Northeast Asian
warontherocks.com
January 29, 2026 at 7:30 PM
"Indonesia’s plan to create 750 new territorial infantry battalions rests on an unclear threat perception, offers limited strategic value in a modern conflict, and diverts scarce resources from essential modernization in the air, maritime, space, and cyber domains." warontherocks.com/2026/01/indo...
"The shift toward Iranian supplies underscores a broader realignment in relations between Iran and Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw." Great deep dive on #Iran's jet fuel shipments to #Myanmar's military @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/graphics/IRA...
Iranian ships deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta
Iranian ships falsifying their journeys deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta, circumventing sanctions in both countries.
www.reuters.com
January 29, 2026 at 6:38 PM
"The shift toward Iranian supplies underscores a broader realignment in relations between Iran and Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw." Great deep dive on #Iran's jet fuel shipments to #Myanmar's military @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/graphics/IRA...
Reposted by Hunter Marston
Since we published this, Pam Bondi's X account has started posting mugshots of Minnesotans arrested for impeding ICE/CBP. Sharing a defendant's photo publicly in this way is forbidden under DOJ rules
ICE and CBP are at the head of Trump's campaign to terrorize Minnesotans. But the Justice Department is not far behind.
ICE’s No. 1 Ally
The Department of Justice has rushed to shield federal agents from accountability and launched needless criminal investigations into Minnesota officials and residents.
www.theatlantic.com
January 28, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Since we published this, Pam Bondi's X account has started posting mugshots of Minnesotans arrested for impeding ICE/CBP. Sharing a defendant's photo publicly in this way is forbidden under DOJ rules
One of the drawbacks of the US' expanding use of sanctions over the past two decades is that the more you rely on sanctions as a policy tool, the more you unite misfits & rogues to band together to evade sanctions by selling & buying amongst each other. Case in point: www.reuters.com/graphics/IRA...
Iranian ships deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta
Iranian ships falsifying their journeys deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta, circumventing sanctions in both countries.
www.reuters.com
January 28, 2026 at 1:34 PM
One of the drawbacks of the US' expanding use of sanctions over the past two decades is that the more you rely on sanctions as a policy tool, the more you unite misfits & rogues to band together to evade sanctions by selling & buying amongst each other. Case in point: www.reuters.com/graphics/IRA...
"A neoroyalist world is not inevitable. Countries—including America’s closest partners—now need to offer a coherent alternative, mobilizing their own sizable collective resources to counter Mr. Trump and support a system based on fair rules and predictable diplomacy." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/o...
Opinion | This Theory Explains Trump’s Baffling Foreign Policy
www.nytimes.com
January 28, 2026 at 1:26 PM
"A neoroyalist world is not inevitable. Countries—including America’s closest partners—now need to offer a coherent alternative, mobilizing their own sizable collective resources to counter Mr. Trump and support a system based on fair rules and predictable diplomacy." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/o...
#Myanmar’s junta just concluded the third phase of its deeply unfair and unrepresentative elections, manufactured to ensure the military’s continued political control. I wrote about the sham elections for @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org’s Ballot Box series here: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
Military Elections Will Not Resolve Myanmar’s Deeper Problems
Dr. Hunter Marston analyzes Myanmar's election process and post-election scenarios.
asiasociety.org
January 27, 2026 at 12:17 AM
#Myanmar’s junta just concluded the third phase of its deeply unfair and unrepresentative elections, manufactured to ensure the military’s continued political control. I wrote about the sham elections for @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org’s Ballot Box series here: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
Great context on Zhang Youxia’s arrest by @tanganzhu.bsky.social: open.substack.com/pub/chinadre...
January 26, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Great context on Zhang Youxia’s arrest by @tanganzhu.bsky.social: open.substack.com/pub/chinadre...
Reposted by Hunter Marston
This is the first example I’ve seen of an American government using AI to meaningfully misrepresent actual events with the intent to deceive the public. We are at Stalinesque levels of propaganda.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/past-the-b...
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/past-the-b...
January 23, 2026 at 2:23 PM
This is the first example I’ve seen of an American government using AI to meaningfully misrepresent actual events with the intent to deceive the public. We are at Stalinesque levels of propaganda.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/past-the-b...
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/past-the-b...
