Paweł Lenartowicz
@freestylerscientist.pl
Aspiring statistician and meta-researcher, sailor and activists.
#PhilosophyofScience
#OpenScience
#Uncertanity
#PhilosophyofScience
#OpenScience
#Uncertanity
Pinned
Paweł Lenartowicz
@freestylerscientist.pl
· Nov 18
Likelihood Ratio Test for Publication Bias: Proof of Concept
Publication bias is a serious challenge to the integrity of scientific research and meta-analyses. And this article proposes a new method for estimating it.
freestylerscientist.pl
I’ve developed a new method for detecting publication bias in heterogeneous effects, with initial tests showing it outperforms existing approaches.
If you’d like to support a young independent scientist in advancing meta-science, please read, share, or review—your help makes a difference!
#MetaSci
If you’d like to support a young independent scientist in advancing meta-science, please read, share, or review—your help makes a difference!
#MetaSci
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
I want to thank Richard Dawkins for making my arguments about popular science writing as a vector for ideological scientism incredibly easy to develop
September 28, 2025 at 1:47 PM
I want to thank Richard Dawkins for making my arguments about popular science writing as a vector for ideological scientism incredibly easy to develop
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
In our capitalist society, we worship competition
But in academia it can be harmful
Encouraging secrecy over collaboration, withholding of data, misappropriation of ideas, and even questionable research practices
But in academia it can be harmful
Encouraging secrecy over collaboration, withholding of data, misappropriation of ideas, and even questionable research practices
September 7, 2025 at 2:46 PM
In our capitalist society, we worship competition
But in academia it can be harmful
Encouraging secrecy over collaboration, withholding of data, misappropriation of ideas, and even questionable research practices
But in academia it can be harmful
Encouraging secrecy over collaboration, withholding of data, misappropriation of ideas, and even questionable research practices
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
(2) My 2024 article with Chris Donkin, in which we consider the advantages and disadvantages of confirmatory and exploratory hypothesis tests and conclude that exploratory tests can be more compelling than confirmatory tests.
Open Access: doi.org/10.1080/0951...
Open Access: doi.org/10.1080/0951...
August 22, 2025 at 6:43 AM
(2) My 2024 article with Chris Donkin, in which we consider the advantages and disadvantages of confirmatory and exploratory hypothesis tests and conclude that exploratory tests can be more compelling than confirmatory tests.
Open Access: doi.org/10.1080/0951...
Open Access: doi.org/10.1080/0951...
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Perhaps the best irony here, lost on the promoters, is that forensic science actually has really shoddy, mostly non-evidence based, often harmful practices.
The police also is generally a beacon of fairness and justice.
The police also is generally a beacon of fairness and justice.
I couldn't agree more w the point that the use of police/crime language abt science is unnerving, counterproductive, divisive. Science does not need an external police force in power. Science can't flourish under authoritarian governments or terms. That's all antithetical to the scientific endeavor.
August 14, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Perhaps the best irony here, lost on the promoters, is that forensic science actually has really shoddy, mostly non-evidence based, often harmful practices.
The police also is generally a beacon of fairness and justice.
The police also is generally a beacon of fairness and justice.
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Tbh, third party simulations were showing issues with p-curve for quite some time-this shouldn't have come as a surprise
doi.org/10.1002/jrsm...
doi.org/10.1002/jrsm...
August 9, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Tbh, third party simulations were showing issues with p-curve for quite some time-this shouldn't have come as a surprise
doi.org/10.1002/jrsm...
doi.org/10.1002/jrsm...
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Does anyone know of a direct comparison between EU countries in terms of metrics used to evaluate universities and/or academic researchers? I'm especially interested in whether one can contrast countries that use N publications with those that don't. I suspect it's not so simple though
August 5, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Does anyone know of a direct comparison between EU countries in terms of metrics used to evaluate universities and/or academic researchers? I'm especially interested in whether one can contrast countries that use N publications with those that don't. I suspect it's not so simple though
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Learn about catching statistical errors before they become a problem, with two of the best in the business. qut.zoom.us/meeting/regi... (collab w/ @ausrepro.bsky.social)
July 28, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Learn about catching statistical errors before they become a problem, with two of the best in the business. qut.zoom.us/meeting/regi... (collab w/ @ausrepro.bsky.social)
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
@xkcd.com again provides for your meta-science slides (link xkcd.com/3117). I do wish we'd stop talking about a "crisis", bc it's been here for generations. Ppl used to pipette by mouth ffs. Enrico Fermi won a Nobel prize for a false result. But that doesn't mean we can't do better going forward.
July 20, 2025 at 5:27 AM
@xkcd.com again provides for your meta-science slides (link xkcd.com/3117). I do wish we'd stop talking about a "crisis", bc it's been here for generations. Ppl used to pipette by mouth ffs. Enrico Fermi won a Nobel prize for a false result. But that doesn't mean we can't do better going forward.
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
If you’ve ever wanted to scream “JUST READ MY PAPER!”
this is for you.
If you don’t communicate clearly and consistently, no one hears your work.
Want visibility without sounding salesy?
Tell the story, show the impact,
and connect with those your science can help.
🧪 #SciComm
this is for you.
If you don’t communicate clearly and consistently, no one hears your work.
Want visibility without sounding salesy?
Tell the story, show the impact,
and connect with those your science can help.
🧪 #SciComm
July 1, 2025 at 12:03 PM
If you’ve ever wanted to scream “JUST READ MY PAPER!”
this is for you.
If you don’t communicate clearly and consistently, no one hears your work.
Want visibility without sounding salesy?
Tell the story, show the impact,
and connect with those your science can help.
🧪 #SciComm
this is for you.
If you don’t communicate clearly and consistently, no one hears your work.
Want visibility without sounding salesy?
Tell the story, show the impact,
and connect with those your science can help.
🧪 #SciComm
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
6. That’s the dynamic I see it here.
To what degree should corporations be liable for harms that they cause as judged by the best available science and a consensus among experts?
If I can’t sue Philip Morris for selling cigarettes to kids without a double blind trial to prove harm, we are sunk.
To what degree should corporations be liable for harms that they cause as judged by the best available science and a consensus among experts?
If I can’t sue Philip Morris for selling cigarettes to kids without a double blind trial to prove harm, we are sunk.
June 13, 2025 at 9:22 PM
6. That’s the dynamic I see it here.
To what degree should corporations be liable for harms that they cause as judged by the best available science and a consensus among experts?
If I can’t sue Philip Morris for selling cigarettes to kids without a double blind trial to prove harm, we are sunk.
To what degree should corporations be liable for harms that they cause as judged by the best available science and a consensus among experts?
If I can’t sue Philip Morris for selling cigarettes to kids without a double blind trial to prove harm, we are sunk.
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
"Thinking time —the time needed to concentrate without interruptions has always been central to scholarly work. It is essential to designing experiments, compiling data, assessing results, reviewing literature and, of course, writing. Yet, [it] is often undervalued."
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
May 23, 2025 at 2:56 AM
"Thinking time —the time needed to concentrate without interruptions has always been central to scholarly work. It is essential to designing experiments, compiling data, assessing results, reviewing literature and, of course, writing. Yet, [it] is often undervalued."
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Honestly I think this is the most depressing aspect of the current state of science for me. The sheer effort and money that is being wasted on data collection when the study is transparently dead on arrival.>
April 18, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Honestly I think this is the most depressing aspect of the current state of science for me. The sheer effort and money that is being wasted on data collection when the study is transparently dead on arrival.>
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
"The problem with 'ritual science' or 'ritual statistics' is not the use of standard methods but rather a lack of understanding of the conditions under which the methods would be appropriate—or a lack of willingness to consider or interrogate the limitations of the methods being used."
Mindless statistics
Statistical rituals largely eliminate statistical thinking in the social sciences. Rituals are indispensable for identification with social groups, bu…
www.sciencedirect.com
April 4, 2025 at 5:05 PM
"The problem with 'ritual science' or 'ritual statistics' is not the use of standard methods but rather a lack of understanding of the conditions under which the methods would be appropriate—or a lack of willingness to consider or interrogate the limitations of the methods being used."
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
1. Another Friday afternoon massacre of sorts:
NIH just rescinded its Scientific Integrity Policy.
h/t @lizborkowski.bsky.social
NIH just rescinded its Scientific Integrity Policy.
h/t @lizborkowski.bsky.social
NOT-OD-25-080: Rescission of the Final Scientific Integrity Policy of the National Institutes of Health
NIH Funding Opportunities and Notices in the NIH Guide for Grants and Contracts: Rescission of the Final Scientific Integrity Policy of the National Institutes of Health NOT-OD-25-080. OD
grants.nih.gov
March 30, 2025 at 4:03 AM
1. Another Friday afternoon massacre of sorts:
NIH just rescinded its Scientific Integrity Policy.
h/t @lizborkowski.bsky.social
NIH just rescinded its Scientific Integrity Policy.
h/t @lizborkowski.bsky.social
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Your dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people.
Be strong, be brave, be fearless.
You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy.
We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.
Be strong, be brave, be fearless.
You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy.
We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.
February 28, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Your dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people.
Be strong, be brave, be fearless.
You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy.
We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.
Be strong, be brave, be fearless.
You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy.
We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.
Conduct rigorous studies rather than 'napkin maths' to support your biggest claims.
Thesis: most published findings are false/waste and we need a movement to
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
fix this.
Antithesis: science reform is broken, falls prey to same tendency to overclaim, and is politically weaponized.
Synthesis: ????
February 24, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Conduct rigorous studies rather than 'napkin maths' to support your biggest claims.
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
This urge to spread bullshit statistics & results in the name of improving science does not instill confidence in metascience. Unless they start developing willingness to reflect on their own practices & take their foundational values seriously, metascientists will harm science more than they help.
This saga in metascience has been depressing. A bullshit zombie statistic that 85% of science is waste got thrown around, people pointed out it was bullshit, and the crowd ostensibly interested in the integrity of science defended it because it came out of a knights ass (not just any ass).
I’m sorry is the appropriate rhetorical defense of science to take napkin math and quote it uncritically then defend it because a knight came up with it?
February 24, 2025 at 4:10 PM
This urge to spread bullshit statistics & results in the name of improving science does not instill confidence in metascience. Unless they start developing willingness to reflect on their own practices & take their foundational values seriously, metascientists will harm science more than they help.
AI models extrapolate human biases. In our work, we (with @hplisiecki.bsky.social ) show how easily they catch the bias of judges in sentiment analysis. Not a very surprising result (but large, very significant effect sizes), but it's an important step towards unbiased text analysis tools.
High risk of political bias in black box emotion inference models - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - High risk of political bias in black box emotion inference models
www.nature.com
February 19, 2025 at 3:00 PM
AI models extrapolate human biases. In our work, we (with @hplisiecki.bsky.social ) show how easily they catch the bias of judges in sentiment analysis. Not a very surprising result (but large, very significant effect sizes), but it's an important step towards unbiased text analysis tools.
The exploratory nature of the study doesn't make the results unreliable 🙄 It's easier to understand when we realise why the confirmatory nature doesn't make the results 'reliable', unless we define 'reliability' in a very narrow and usually inappropriate scope of type I and II errors.
I reviewed this paper, making very sure the authors clearly labeled their extremely exploratory (they tested dozens of things) result on citations as exploratory. And yet Mark still interprets it as a reliable effect. Disappointing!
February 4, 2025 at 9:37 PM
The exploratory nature of the study doesn't make the results unreliable 🙄 It's easier to understand when we realise why the confirmatory nature doesn't make the results 'reliable', unless we define 'reliability' in a very narrow and usually inappropriate scope of type I and II errors.
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
‘Publish or perish’ culture blamed for reproducibility crisis www.nature.com/articles/d41...
‘Publish or perish’ culture blamed for reproducibility crisis
Survey of more than 1,600 biomedical researchers also flagged small sample sizes and cherry-picking of data as leading causes of reproducibility problems.
www.nature.com
January 22, 2025 at 8:42 AM
‘Publish or perish’ culture blamed for reproducibility crisis www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Fellow scientists, let people know you don't live in an ivory tower but a one-bedroom apartment! 🧪 #science is better trusted by people who are perceived to be humble!
We don’t need better stories. We need to be humble. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The effect of seeing scientists as intellectually humble on trust in scientists and their research - Nature Human Behaviour
Across five pre-registered studies, Koetke et al. find that perceptions of scientists’ intellectual humility positively affect the perceived trustworthiness of scientists and their research.
www.nature.com
January 19, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Fellow scientists, let people know you don't live in an ivory tower but a one-bedroom apartment! 🧪 #science is better trusted by people who are perceived to be humble!
The fluoride debate is reminiscent of earlier controversies, such as the debates over smoking and cancer or formaldehyde. The 'pseudo-defenders of science' and their defense of water fluoridation pose a significant threat to the credibility of science, greater than that of populist politicians.
January 11, 2025 at 5:50 PM
The fluoride debate is reminiscent of earlier controversies, such as the debates over smoking and cancer or formaldehyde. The 'pseudo-defenders of science' and their defense of water fluoridation pose a significant threat to the credibility of science, greater than that of populist politicians.
"No evidence of p-hacking" is not "no p-hacking". Especially when the methods used simply do not detect p-hacking, lol. It's like diagnosing cancer with a thermometer.
p-hacking is primarily an academic publication phenomenon due to the incentives involved -- researchers find no evidence of p-hacking in e-commerce A/B testing because it's counterproductive to try and fool yourself
alexmiller.phd/research/p-h...
alexmiller.phd/research/p-h...
January 2, 2025 at 10:43 PM
"No evidence of p-hacking" is not "no p-hacking". Especially when the methods used simply do not detect p-hacking, lol. It's like diagnosing cancer with a thermometer.
Reposted by Paweł Lenartowicz
Setting aside all other related issues that might factor in such an assessment and sticking to the parameters of your framing, I wouldn't think it's any different from heavily relying on methods one doesn't even try to or cannot understand. I find it troubling in other contexts so that carries over.
December 26, 2024 at 11:21 PM
Setting aside all other related issues that might factor in such an assessment and sticking to the parameters of your framing, I wouldn't think it's any different from heavily relying on methods one doesn't even try to or cannot understand. I find it troubling in other contexts so that carries over.
There are 3 different common blue in many Slavic l. (for ex. Belarusian, Polish)
Гранатавы (Be), granatowy (PL) - dark blue
Сіні (Be), niebieski (PL) - blue
Блакітны (Be), błękitny (PL) - light blue
also, there are some regionalisms, as "modry" - Silesian, Czech, like "modra kapusta" (below)
Гранатавы (Be), granatowy (PL) - dark blue
Сіні (Be), niebieski (PL) - blue
Блакітны (Be), błękitny (PL) - light blue
also, there are some regionalisms, as "modry" - Silesian, Czech, like "modra kapusta" (below)
December 14, 2024 at 7:50 PM
There are 3 different common blue in many Slavic l. (for ex. Belarusian, Polish)
Гранатавы (Be), granatowy (PL) - dark blue
Сіні (Be), niebieski (PL) - blue
Блакітны (Be), błękitny (PL) - light blue
also, there are some regionalisms, as "modry" - Silesian, Czech, like "modra kapusta" (below)
Гранатавы (Be), granatowy (PL) - dark blue
Сіні (Be), niebieski (PL) - blue
Блакітны (Be), błękitny (PL) - light blue
also, there are some regionalisms, as "modry" - Silesian, Czech, like "modra kapusta" (below)