Forrest Fleischman
@forrestf.bsky.social
Associate professor of environmental policy at the University of Minnesota. Forest governance, Restoration Social Science, South Asia, Central America, Environmental justice, urban ecosystems, NEPA, homegardens, etc.
Pinned
Forrest Fleischman
@forrestf.bsky.social
· Jun 23
Addressing critiques refines global estimates of reforestation potential for climate change mitigation - Nature Communications
Reforestation is a key climate change mitigation strategy, but global maps of its potential are widely criticized. This study shows that addressing those critiques substantially refines estimates of t...
www.nature.com
A couple years ago, I was approached by some scientists at The Nature Conservancy with a proposal: Would I help them create a better global restoration opportunity map? The resulting paper is now out, and I will explain my view of it in this thread. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The Trump admin has a terrible record on actually carrying out their deregulatory agenda, most of this stuff has gotten thrown out in court. I'm surprised that this is presented as a fait acompli rather than a first step in a battle they are likely to lose. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
February 10, 2026 at 2:46 PM
The Trump admin has a terrible record on actually carrying out their deregulatory agenda, most of this stuff has gotten thrown out in court. I'm surprised that this is presented as a fait acompli rather than a first step in a battle they are likely to lose. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Forrest Fleischman
If Bad Bunny can cover the history of Puerto Rico, colonialism, transatlantic slavery, hemispheric consciousness, as well as contemporary life and politics in under 14 minutes, you can do your 15- or 20-minute conference presentation with time to spare.
February 9, 2026 at 11:56 PM
If Bad Bunny can cover the history of Puerto Rico, colonialism, transatlantic slavery, hemispheric consciousness, as well as contemporary life and politics in under 14 minutes, you can do your 15- or 20-minute conference presentation with time to spare.
Personally I think that naming an ugly, inefficient, and very outdated train station after the President might be kind of fitting.
February 7, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Personally I think that naming an ugly, inefficient, and very outdated train station after the President might be kind of fitting.
Reposted by Forrest Fleischman
The mainstream aim to restore “native reference ecosystems”
Reminds me of people of my age who go to see touring bands from their youth
Trying to recreate something that never quite existed
And has limited relevance in a changing world
doi.org/10.1111/ecog...
Reminds me of people of my age who go to see touring bands from their youth
Trying to recreate something that never quite existed
And has limited relevance in a changing world
doi.org/10.1111/ecog...
Future restoration should enhance ecological complexity and emergent properties at multiple scales
Ecological restoration has a paradigm of re-establishing ‘indigenous reference' communities. One resulting concern is that focussing on target communities may not necessarily create systems which fun...
doi.org
February 5, 2026 at 7:58 AM
The mainstream aim to restore “native reference ecosystems”
Reminds me of people of my age who go to see touring bands from their youth
Trying to recreate something that never quite existed
And has limited relevance in a changing world
doi.org/10.1111/ecog...
Reminds me of people of my age who go to see touring bands from their youth
Trying to recreate something that never quite existed
And has limited relevance in a changing world
doi.org/10.1111/ecog...
Reposted by Forrest Fleischman
I know it’s intentional but we should stop calling everything AI, lumping useful machine learning techniques for science with large language models that tech companies are trying to cram into everything.
AI to track icebergs adrift at sea.
British scientists say a world-first AI tool to catalogue and track icebergs as they break apart into smaller chunks could fill a "major blind spot" in predicting climate change
u.afp.com/S2sA
British scientists say a world-first AI tool to catalogue and track icebergs as they break apart into smaller chunks could fill a "major blind spot" in predicting climate change
u.afp.com/S2sA
February 5, 2026 at 9:00 AM
I know it’s intentional but we should stop calling everything AI, lumping useful machine learning techniques for science with large language models that tech companies are trying to cram into everything.
The Border Patrol also recruits heavily along the southern border because... that's where their work is concentrated. And this reflects the demographics of the southern border, which is very heavily hispanic.
February 5, 2026 at 2:35 PM
The Border Patrol also recruits heavily along the southern border because... that's where their work is concentrated. And this reflects the demographics of the southern border, which is very heavily hispanic.
Do either of these companies make any money? I guess SpaceX has some government contracts, and xAI maybe has some contracts for making pornography or something like that?
February 3, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Do either of these companies make any money? I guess SpaceX has some government contracts, and xAI maybe has some contracts for making pornography or something like that?
Big flocks of robins (100+?) show up in my yard in St. Paul every few days, I think they are eating hackberries (but I imagine they would eat through them pretty fast). I thought they went south for the winter? Its weird to hear them twittering like its spring in sub-zero temps.
January 31, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Big flocks of robins (100+?) show up in my yard in St. Paul every few days, I think they are eating hackberries (but I imagine they would eat through them pretty fast). I thought they went south for the winter? Its weird to hear them twittering like its spring in sub-zero temps.
Fun fact though... solar cells are way more efficient than plants! www.science.org/doi/full/10....
www.science.org
January 29, 2026 at 9:19 PM
Fun fact though... solar cells are way more efficient than plants! www.science.org/doi/full/10....
Sorry, your views as expressed in this dialogue are incoherent. On the one hand, solar generates energy so poorly, on the other hand, people who sell energy from solar have made so much money doing so that they've corrupted the entire scientific establishment?
January 29, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Sorry, your views as expressed in this dialogue are incoherent. On the one hand, solar generates energy so poorly, on the other hand, people who sell energy from solar have made so much money doing so that they've corrupted the entire scientific establishment?
This is a cool but kind of weird policy. We get a discount on *all* our electricity use in winter because we have a heat pump. Also, heat pumps are awesome.
Excellent trend: cold states offering discounts to people who heat their homes with heat pumps.
Why Some Cold States Are Making It Cheaper to Run a Heat Pump
www.nytimes.com
January 29, 2026 at 8:29 PM
This is a cool but kind of weird policy. We get a discount on *all* our electricity use in winter because we have a heat pump. Also, heat pumps are awesome.
I'll sign up for any energy source that doesn't involve wiping out natural habitats. Unfortunately, such sources don't exist. There are tradeoffs between energy sources, and between particular siting locations, and we try to analyze them to figure out what's best in any given setting.
January 29, 2026 at 6:17 PM
I'll sign up for any energy source that doesn't involve wiping out natural habitats. Unfortunately, such sources don't exist. There are tradeoffs between energy sources, and between particular siting locations, and we try to analyze them to figure out what's best in any given setting.
Reposted by Forrest Fleischman
I am nominating Saint Paul for the FIFA Peace Prize.
As longtime observers of struggles to establish peace and justice in the US and around the world, The Nation is honored to nominate the city of Minneapolis and its people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.
“The Nation” Nominates Minneapolis for the Nobel Peace Prize
With their resistance to violent authoritarianism, the people of Minneapolis have renewed the spirit of Dr. King’s call for “the positive affirmation of peace.”
www.thenation.com
January 29, 2026 at 5:23 PM
I am nominating Saint Paul for the FIFA Peace Prize.
Here's an analysis of a solar facility in my hometown. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Solar Power versus Forests: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Replacing Forest Land with a Solar PV Facility
<p>This study conducts a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of replacing forest land with a large-scale solar (LSS) photovoltaic (PV) facility, using data from
papers.ssrn.com
January 29, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Here's an analysis of a solar facility in my hometown. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Could you provide me one you think is biased and explain what bias you perceive in it?
January 29, 2026 at 4:50 PM
Could you provide me one you think is biased and explain what bias you perceive in it?
but I'm hoping our formalization and analysis can provide a clearer explanation of why this is a problem for carbon offset programs.
January 29, 2026 at 2:43 PM
but I'm hoping our formalization and analysis can provide a clearer explanation of why this is a problem for carbon offset programs.
I don't think we are at all the first people to say this (in fact I think its so glaringly obvious that I've struggled to understand why this hasn't been the first reaction of the entire scientific community to these policy tools)
January 29, 2026 at 2:43 PM
I don't think we are at all the first people to say this (in fact I think its so glaringly obvious that I've struggled to understand why this hasn't been the first reaction of the entire scientific community to these policy tools)
Therefore, the paper argues that measuring additionality and leakage in forests is not really possible, and this presents a fundamental flaw in the design of programs that rely on forest-based carbon offsets.
January 29, 2026 at 2:43 PM
Therefore, the paper argues that measuring additionality and leakage in forests is not really possible, and this presents a fundamental flaw in the design of programs that rely on forest-based carbon offsets.
and that statistical approaches to analyzing observational data provide measures of average effects, whereas carbon offsets are developed with the assumption that one can measure the effects of particular projects.
January 29, 2026 at 2:43 PM
and that statistical approaches to analyzing observational data provide measures of average effects, whereas carbon offsets are developed with the assumption that one can measure the effects of particular projects.
In brief, this paper formalizes the insight that you can't measure a counterfactual, that its very difficult to develop quasi-experimental causal insights in complex systems (e.g. such as forests)
January 29, 2026 at 2:43 PM
In brief, this paper formalizes the insight that you can't measure a counterfactual, that its very difficult to develop quasi-experimental causal insights in complex systems (e.g. such as forests)
Here's the 50 day open access link authors.elsevier.com/c/1mWeE5Ce0r...
Please wait whilst we redirect you
All content on this site: Copyright © 2026 Elsevier B.V., its licensors, and contributors. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply.
authors.elsevier.com
January 29, 2026 at 2:43 PM
Here's the 50 day open access link authors.elsevier.com/c/1mWeE5Ce0r...
In our latest article we argue that the problems with carbon offsets can't be fixed. The problem is causal complexity which observational methods can't sort out. open access link in the second post. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Why carbon offsets may fail in complex systems: A causal inference perspective
Social-ecological system dynamics present a fundamental challenge to the attribution of changes in carbon stocks to actions taken by carbon offset sel…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 29, 2026 at 2:43 PM
In our latest article we argue that the problems with carbon offsets can't be fixed. The problem is causal complexity which observational methods can't sort out. open access link in the second post. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Thanks, the ones I've read were done by academics with zero external funding. Actual social science research is rarely funded by "big" corporate interests.
January 29, 2026 at 2:33 PM
Thanks, the ones I've read were done by academics with zero external funding. Actual social science research is rarely funded by "big" corporate interests.
Reposted by Forrest Fleischman
Metsitystä tärkeämpää #suojelu ja ekosysteemien laaja #ennallistaminen.
Our findings underline that near-term emission cuts remain critical for achieving the Paris Agreement and emphasise the need to shift from a dominant focus on large-scale tree planting to broader ecosystem restoration.
#metsät
Our findings underline that near-term emission cuts remain critical for achieving the Paris Agreement and emphasise the need to shift from a dominant focus on large-scale tree planting to broader ecosystem restoration.
#metsät
This pre-print suggests that forest conservation is good for biodiversity, but large-scale afforestation is *bad* for biodiversity, and also will have little impact on short-medium term climate, underscoring the need for rapid emissions reductions. assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-822...
assets-eu.researchsquare.com
January 28, 2026 at 11:08 AM
Metsitystä tärkeämpää #suojelu ja ekosysteemien laaja #ennallistaminen.
Our findings underline that near-term emission cuts remain critical for achieving the Paris Agreement and emphasise the need to shift from a dominant focus on large-scale tree planting to broader ecosystem restoration.
#metsät
Our findings underline that near-term emission cuts remain critical for achieving the Paris Agreement and emphasise the need to shift from a dominant focus on large-scale tree planting to broader ecosystem restoration.
#metsät
This pre print did not examine that question. Analyses I've seen show that the potential footprint of wind & solar globally is small relative to global natural landscapes, but of course in particular locations it could be harmful.
January 28, 2026 at 1:04 PM
This pre print did not examine that question. Analyses I've seen show that the potential footprint of wind & solar globally is small relative to global natural landscapes, but of course in particular locations it could be harmful.