Ben Paxton
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drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Ben Paxton
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
770 followers 240 following 120 posts
Senior Researcher at the @instituteforgov.bsky.social. Views my own.
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drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Another misplaced attack on the OBR. The government dictates fiscal policy, not the OBR. That includes the OBR's mandate and the fiscal rules. The fundamental problem is a weak fiscal position, which requires tough choices on tax and spend
January 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
Between this and "superflu" the NHS is spinning very hard this winter. Few ways to interpret this comms strategy:
1) manufacturing demand crises to shift blame
2) stick to beat the BMA
3) to bounce HMT into emergency funding
4) they actually believe high demand causes long waits

None good!
theguardian.com The Guardian @theguardian.com · 6d
Huge rise in number of people in England’s A&Es for coughs or hiccups
Huge rise in number of people in England’s A&Es for coughs or hiccups
Lack of prompt access to primary care blamed for rise in hospital cases of minor ailments including blocked noses Millions of people are turning to A&E departments in England for minor ailments including coughs, blocked noses and hiccups, according to data that health leaders say lays bare a failure to give patients prompt access to primary care. Emergency wards are designed for serious injuries and life-threatening emergencies only. But many are becoming swamped with patients whose health concerns should be dealt with elsewhere, including a near tenfold increase in people seeking help for a cough. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
December 31, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
hannahkeenan.bsky.social
Amid some v good initiatives, lots of the longstanding problems with the civil service got worse again in the past year. If the government wants to 'rewire the state' it needs to set out what that means for the workforce. 👇Sneak peek at some of our @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report, out in Jan.
December 30, 2025 at 4:47 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
The new powers to debar or exclude suppliers that break the rules or perform poorly were supposed to help fix accountability in public procurement. But I'm not aware of these new powers being used much at all so far, and the attempt highlighted here by @jessicaelgot.bsky.social has faced problems
December 30, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
jpspencer.bsky.social
FAO business case nerds: government are finally getting round to publishing business cases.

This has been a long time coming - I remember working on ideas around this over three years ago.

So well done to the government for actually getting on with it.

www.gov.uk/government/c...
Business case publications: collection
This is a collection page for major project and programme business cases.
www.gov.uk
December 15, 2025 at 7:42 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Really important blog from @gemmatetlow.bsky.social on the misguided critiques of the OBR, and why a strong OBR (and person to chair it) is in all our interests
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/stro...
A strong OBR is in everyone’s interests | Institute for Government
The chancellor should appoint a strong chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility to replace Richard Hughes.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
December 10, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
This is an interesting piece. Analysis we've done support some of the findings

First, staff absences are higher on average in trusts that serve more deprived populations, and the effect is larger for mental health absences than for other conditions
December 4, 2025 at 11:51 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
The 'clogging up' of A+Es is not due to the 2% of people coming to ED with this quite arbitrary list of conditions. The main reason they're clogged is poor flow through hospitals!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Patients clogging up A&E with hiccups, sore throats and niggles
NHS bosses warn the public to use hospitals wisely amid concern this could be a tough winter.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 4, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
njdavies.bsky.social
I was a little sceptical about the OVfM’s unusual setup but it has worked very well. The key question, as Ben argues, is whether politicians and officials can now put its proposals into practice and take up the mantle of driving further system reform
December 3, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
gilesyb.bsky.social
In my Budget chat for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk I flatteringly compared it to a complex artwork you must spend hours with to see all the details

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/offi...

The work of the OfVFM provides an example: @drbenpaxton.bsky.social explains why it is good.
The Office for Value for Money has been a success | Institute for Government
In its short lifetime the OfVM made valuable proposals for change.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
December 3, 2025 at 10:42 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
A slice of positive budget news last week was some important improvements to the spending framework
I've written about how the Office for Value for Money helped drive this, and why I think others in government could learn from its unusual set-up
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/offi...
The Office for Value for Money has been a success | Institute for Government
In its short lifetime the OfVM made valuable proposals for change.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
December 3, 2025 at 8:34 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Well worth reading this great thread from @meganbryer.bsky.social on the shape of government following the latest PPS and cabinet committee data release.

Interesting here that the cabinet committees look less gender balanced on average than cabinet itself (which is 44% women)
meganbryer.bsky.social Megan Bryer @meganbryer.bsky.social · Dec 2
8/ The Union and Constitution committee - consisting of 10 men and 2 women - is the least gender balanced committee. Only 3 committees of the 11 reach a 50/50 gender split.
An Institute for Government chart showing the gender balance of cabinet committees, where 8 of 11 committees or sub-committees have more men than women
December 2, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
shawharriet.bsky.social
New funding plans for mayors may not have made the headlines last week but they represent important steps on the government's journey to 'complete the map' of English devolution.

More from me, @akashpaun.bsky.social and @matthewfright.bsky.social below.
December 1, 2025 at 9:39 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Once again, Reeves committed to one fiscal event a year. That would be great. But when there are two OBR forecasts, the temptation is to do further fiscal tinkering each time. The test will be whether she can hold her nerve come the spring
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announces tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
This morning we’ll be sharing some further analysis of the chancellor's big budget decisions.

In the meantime, check out the summary post on our autumn budget live blog, which highlights some of yesterday's key takeaways www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announces tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
njdavies.bsky.social
Pleased to see the govt commitment to using procurement to drive innovation. Procurement accounts for roughly 1 in 3 pounds spent by govt but it's utterly unstrategic about how it uses this

@drbenpaxton.bsky.social and I previously identified the barriers that the task-and-finish needs to remove
The government will leverage its procurement budgets to drive innovation. Each department will appoint a senior Procurement Innovation Champion, responsible for defining and delivering its innovation priorities through procurement. To accelerate access for strategically important innovative firms, the government will launch an Innovation Marketplace and establish a task-and-finish group to remove internal barriers to innovative procurement. Demonstrating a new approach, the government has launched an advance market commitment (AMC) to spur investment in clean concrete technologies, backed by Scottish Water, Ramboll, Derwent London, Atkins Realis UK, and Heathrow. Subject to due diligence, the government will launch another AMC, worth up to £100 million, for novel AI inference chips. Screenshot from IFG report: However, there are several barriers to effectively using public procurement to support the government’s missions and new ‘mission-led’ ways of working, including: • insufficient clarity about the government’s missions, which limits the public sector’s market shaping ability • pervasive aversion to risk and uncertainty • a lack of forward planning, which means there is often not enough time to explore how the market could provide new solutions • commercial professionals being brought into the policy process too late • procurements starting with over-specified solutions rather than outcomes • innovation often being initially available at a small scale • low quality of procurement data • insufficient senior commercial capacity and contract management capability • limited cross-government working between commercial professionals
November 27, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
njdavies.bsky.social
Proposed changes to spending controls are incredibly positive. As @instituteforgovernment.org.uk has previously noted, the cumulative complexity of controls muddies accountability, makes govt a worse customer, and wastes time and money. We asked govt to review and that's exactly what they've done
More governance can muddy accountability and reduce competition New policies and controls are typically introduced with good intentions – it is right that procurement decisions are properly scrutinised and reflect the changing priorities of the government. However, old policies and controls are often not scrapped when new ones are introduced, leading to layer upon layer of red tape – or, as one roundtable attendee put it, “terms and conditions on top of terms and conditions”. Governance alone, however, does not equal accountability. The cumulative complexity of controls and guidance can make lines of responsibility harder to trace, muddying the waters of accountability, as it can become less, not more, clear who is ultimately responsible for a decision (for example, the departmental commercial team leading a procurement or the central teams that have signed it off and set the guidance it complies with). Suppliers experience the proliferation of policies and controls through additional requirements in contracts. This can risk making the public sector a less attractive customer, putting off providers considering entering public sector markets and reducing market competition. Additional requirements at both tendering and contract management stages tend to impact SMEs, including charities and social enterprises, the greatest, since they usually have less capacity to meet them.
November 26, 2025 at 2:52 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Weeks of speculation, and lots of budget measures - but do they add up to a coherent fiscal strategy? Tune in to our webinar in 10 minutes to get the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk view
instituteforgovernment.org.uk Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · Nov 26
Sign up for our webinar at 4pm, where a panel of IfG experts will be bringing you analysis of what we've learnt on the government's fiscal rules, changes to the productivity forecasts, the two-child benefit limit, council tax and more.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
November 26, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
"Reeves steered clear of major adult benefits reforms"

@drbenpaxton.bsky.social shares his thoughts on today's budget and what it means for welfare – and why big changes to the system won't land unless you've laid the groundwork www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
“Reeves steered clear of major reforms to adult benefits, having learnt from the summer’s U-turns that big changes won’t land unless you’ve laid the groundwork beforehand. The reviews underway of disability benefits and youth inactivity should better set her up for more considered future reforms.” A quote from Ben Paxton, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
November 26, 2025 at 2:42 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Not surprising that Reeves is expected to once again freeze fuel duty given her focus on the cost of living.

But if they keep doing this, revenue in 2029/30 will be £4.8bn lower than the numbers pencilled in. The cumulative cost of these freezes (+ 5p cut) since 2010/11 has been ~£100bn (!).
November 26, 2025 at 11:58 AM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
We've now had several formal pre-budget announcements (following weeks of speculation, which Treasury 'officially' declines to comment on). Our autumn budget live blog has a list of them (+ our piece making the case for a tourist tax back in July)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
gemmatetlow.bsky.social
In a new departure, we @instituteforgovernment.org.uk are going to be live blogging the Budget all through tomorrow. The live blog is now live and we will be sharing our pre-Budget thoughts there, followed by responses once we hear the CX's speech www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Great to see public sector pensions being discussed. But I think the key issue is are they actually good value for money for recruiting + retaining the public sector workforce we want? Or might giving people flexibility to switch some pension for pay be better value?
www.thetimes.com/article/77af...
We need to put a stop to unfair public sector pensions — here’s how
The incredibly generous schemes are unfair and unaffordable and there is no justification for continuing to offer them
www.thetimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
shaina-sangha.bsky.social
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Reposted by Ben Paxton
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
A chart that surprised me: NHS staff absences for mental health reasons are at record highs, above pandemic levels

Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016

Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
November 20, 2025 at 9:34 AM