Dominik Presl
@dompresl.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the Association for International Affairs.
OSINT Analyst.
Decoding Geopolitics Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@DecodingGeopoliticsPodcast
OSINT Analyst.
Decoding Geopolitics Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@DecodingGeopoliticsPodcast
While hardly anyone’s paying attention, a big geopolitical game is unfolding and, once again, oil is right at the center of it.
A new global oil war has started, and Russia, more than anyone, really can’t afford to lose.
stationzero.substack.com/p/a-chaotic-...
A new global oil war has started, and Russia, more than anyone, really can’t afford to lose.
stationzero.substack.com/p/a-chaotic-...
A Chaotic Oil War Has Begun – And It’s a Geopolitical Mess
Money, oil and geopolitics - what more can you want.
stationzero.substack.com
May 8, 2025 at 12:07 PM
While hardly anyone’s paying attention, a big geopolitical game is unfolding and, once again, oil is right at the center of it.
A new global oil war has started, and Russia, more than anyone, really can’t afford to lose.
stationzero.substack.com/p/a-chaotic-...
A new global oil war has started, and Russia, more than anyone, really can’t afford to lose.
stationzero.substack.com/p/a-chaotic-...
Since Trump launched his trade war, oil prices have plunged and so far failed to recover. And that’s a major problem for Moscow - in fact it might be the most serious threat to its economy since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
A few observations here: stationzero.substack.com/p/the-bigges...
A few observations here: stationzero.substack.com/p/the-bigges...
The Biggest Threat to Russian Economy So Far
Plus: Russian Covert Ops Are Changing | China's Military Purges
stationzero.substack.com
April 21, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Since Trump launched his trade war, oil prices have plunged and so far failed to recover. And that’s a major problem for Moscow - in fact it might be the most serious threat to its economy since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
A few observations here: stationzero.substack.com/p/the-bigges...
A few observations here: stationzero.substack.com/p/the-bigges...
When Trump launched his trade war, he found China that was well prepared, with a clear strategy and that doesn't have to worry about public opinion. In a real war, China would enjoy the exact same advantages as well - and America could find itself caught off guard again.
A few observations:
A few observations:
Trump's Trade War Shows How a Real U.S.-China War Might Unfold
Deep Dive: The Trade War Showed Where the U.S. Might Falter in a Real War
stationzero.substack.com
April 21, 2025 at 2:50 PM
When Trump launched his trade war, he found China that was well prepared, with a clear strategy and that doesn't have to worry about public opinion. In a real war, China would enjoy the exact same advantages as well - and America could find itself caught off guard again.
A few observations:
A few observations:
Díky @jeberle.bsky.social! Snažil jsem se k tomu přistupovat co nejvíc sebekriticky, viz úryvek:
March 6, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Díky @jeberle.bsky.social! Snažil jsem se k tomu přistupovat co nejvíc sebekriticky, viz úryvek:
Europe’s emergency meeting on Ukraine feels - unfortunately - pretty underwhelming. Ukraine already rejected the French proposal of a month-long ceasefire and UK insists on "strong US backing" for any peace deal, but the US isn’t likely to strongly back anything. Not exactly a turning point.
March 3, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Europe’s emergency meeting on Ukraine feels - unfortunately - pretty underwhelming. Ukraine already rejected the French proposal of a month-long ceasefire and UK insists on "strong US backing" for any peace deal, but the US isn’t likely to strongly back anything. Not exactly a turning point.
Reposted by Dominik Presl
Europe's main problem is that even if you consider Trump a "deal maker," he's just not that interested in deals w/ Europe. It's not a priority. European concerns hardly register in Washington. If Europe wants that to change it will have to show Moscow/DC it can't be ignored. Until then, well 🤷
Lots of concern in EU capitals this eve. A sense Trump has given Putin a lot today - on substance (no NATO accession) & optics (symbolism of phone call at the same time as the UDCG meeting). Is this the beginning of a process where the EU's interests will now be jeopardised? That's the fear
February 12, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Europe's main problem is that even if you consider Trump a "deal maker," he's just not that interested in deals w/ Europe. It's not a priority. European concerns hardly register in Washington. If Europe wants that to change it will have to show Moscow/DC it can't be ignored. Until then, well 🤷
China is building a massive new wartime military command—another sign it’s preparing for a potential Taiwan conflict.
🛰️ Satellite imagery has already revealed:
- A replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Palace for training
- A new fleet of invasion barges
🛰️ Satellite imagery has already revealed:
- A replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Palace for training
- A new fleet of invasion barges
February 11, 2025 at 10:36 AM
China is building a massive new wartime military command—another sign it’s preparing for a potential Taiwan conflict.
🛰️ Satellite imagery has already revealed:
- A replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Palace for training
- A new fleet of invasion barges
🛰️ Satellite imagery has already revealed:
- A replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Palace for training
- A new fleet of invasion barges
@michaelkofman.bsky.social on Russian military struggles in Ukraine.
Full episode: link in the comments ⬇️
Full episode: link in the comments ⬇️
February 4, 2025 at 2:58 PM
@michaelkofman.bsky.social on Russian military struggles in Ukraine.
Full episode: link in the comments ⬇️
Full episode: link in the comments ⬇️
I had the privilege of speaking with @michaelkofman.bsky.social for my latest podcast episode.
We discussed the state of Russia’s military, how it has evolved since the early days of the Ukraine war, and what's next.
You can watch it here: youtu.be/Vj6oiILlJrY
We discussed the state of Russia’s military, how it has evolved since the early days of the Ukraine war, and what's next.
You can watch it here: youtu.be/Vj6oiILlJrY
The War Is Slowly Killing Russia’s Military. Here’s How Long They’ll Need to Recover | Mike Kofman
YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
youtu.be
February 4, 2025 at 12:50 PM
I had the privilege of speaking with @michaelkofman.bsky.social for my latest podcast episode.
We discussed the state of Russia’s military, how it has evolved since the early days of the Ukraine war, and what's next.
You can watch it here: youtu.be/Vj6oiILlJrY
We discussed the state of Russia’s military, how it has evolved since the early days of the Ukraine war, and what's next.
You can watch it here: youtu.be/Vj6oiILlJrY
Reposted by Dominik Presl
Had a great time talking cyber warfare, subversion, and sabotage with
@dompresl.bsky.social
of the Decoding Geopolitics Podcast last month, now out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tifA...
@dompresl.bsky.social
of the Decoding Geopolitics Podcast last month, now out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tifA...
How Cyber Warfare Really Works? Lessons from Ukraine-Russia War | Ep. 45 Lennart Maschmeyer
YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
www.youtube.com
January 13, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Had a great time talking cyber warfare, subversion, and sabotage with
@dompresl.bsky.social
of the Decoding Geopolitics Podcast last month, now out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tifA...
@dompresl.bsky.social
of the Decoding Geopolitics Podcast last month, now out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tifA...
@justin-br0nk.bsky.social on why Elon Musk's criticism of the F-35 is misguided and inaccurate, why drones are not replacing fighter jets anytime soon and why F-16s did not have the impact that many expected in the latest episode of Decoding Geopolitics:
youtu.be/X-A_aF7lpm4
youtu.be/X-A_aF7lpm4
F-35 Critics Are Completely Wrong. F-16s for Ukraine Were Over-Hyped. | Ep. 44 Prof. Justin Bronk
YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
youtu.be
December 19, 2024 at 12:21 PM
@justin-br0nk.bsky.social on why Elon Musk's criticism of the F-35 is misguided and inaccurate, why drones are not replacing fighter jets anytime soon and why F-16s did not have the impact that many expected in the latest episode of Decoding Geopolitics:
youtu.be/X-A_aF7lpm4
youtu.be/X-A_aF7lpm4
Reposted by Dominik Presl
🎙️ Podcast!
I joined Dominik Presl on Decoding Geopolitics to talk about what just happened in Syria, why it happened, what happens next, and why I don’t really know the answer to any of those questions.
Very good conversation!
🎧 👉 youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
@dompresl.bsky.social
I joined Dominik Presl on Decoding Geopolitics to talk about what just happened in Syria, why it happened, what happens next, and why I don’t really know the answer to any of those questions.
Very good conversation!
🎧 👉 youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
@dompresl.bsky.social
Syria Expert: 'Things Could Get Much Worse. Here’s Who the Real Winner Is.' | Ep. 43 Aron Lund
YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
youtu.be
December 11, 2024 at 3:17 PM
🎙️ Podcast!
I joined Dominik Presl on Decoding Geopolitics to talk about what just happened in Syria, why it happened, what happens next, and why I don’t really know the answer to any of those questions.
Very good conversation!
🎧 👉 youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
@dompresl.bsky.social
I joined Dominik Presl on Decoding Geopolitics to talk about what just happened in Syria, why it happened, what happens next, and why I don’t really know the answer to any of those questions.
Very good conversation!
🎧 👉 youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
@dompresl.bsky.social
I spoke with the amazing @aronlund.bsky.social on Decoding Geopolitics podcast in a deep dive about what actually happened in Syria, what it means for all the key actors and what might happen next.
youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
Syria Expert: 'Things Could Get Much Worse. Here’s Who the Real Winner Is.' | Ep. 43 Aron Lund
YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
youtu.be
December 11, 2024 at 2:14 PM
I spoke with the amazing @aronlund.bsky.social on Decoding Geopolitics podcast in a deep dive about what actually happened in Syria, what it means for all the key actors and what might happen next.
youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o
Bernie Sanders: "But while so many Americans are struggling to get by, the United States is spending record-breaking amounts of money on the military."
Well, not really: relative to GDP, U.S. spending on defense is actually at one of the lowest points since the 1930s.
Well, not really: relative to GDP, U.S. spending on defense is actually at one of the lowest points since the 1930s.
December 9, 2024 at 1:26 PM
Bernie Sanders: "But while so many Americans are struggling to get by, the United States is spending record-breaking amounts of money on the military."
Well, not really: relative to GDP, U.S. spending on defense is actually at one of the lowest points since the 1930s.
Well, not really: relative to GDP, U.S. spending on defense is actually at one of the lowest points since the 1930s.
I had a chance to talk with @eliotacohen.bsky.social about why most analysts failed to predict how the Ukraine war would turn out following Russia's invasion - a topic he recently wrote an extremely interesting report on with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Check it out!
youtu.be/t7gg0QomgAA
youtu.be/t7gg0QomgAA
Why Experts Failed to Predict Russia's Invasion of Ukraine? | Ep. 42 Eliot Cohen
YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
youtu.be
December 8, 2024 at 3:17 PM
I had a chance to talk with @eliotacohen.bsky.social about why most analysts failed to predict how the Ukraine war would turn out following Russia's invasion - a topic he recently wrote an extremely interesting report on with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Check it out!
youtu.be/t7gg0QomgAA
youtu.be/t7gg0QomgAA
He said: “We now face much, much more aggression from nation states. In effect, we had the 20 to 30-year holiday from that kind of big player, sophisticated states in serious conflict with each other. It’s back, I’m afraid.”
Ken McCallum “kept secret his role in MI5 for 25 years and only told his children when he became director-general. He said until then that he was the “world’s most boring neighbour”…” www.thetimes.com/article/b683...
‘Stretched’ MI5 forced to prioritise Russia over terrorists, says chief
Ken McCallum, the MI5 chief, told a civil service podcast it only had ‘finite’ resources but was facing ‘grander and more sophisticated attacks’ from aggressive nation states
www.thetimes.com
December 7, 2024 at 2:19 PM
He said: “We now face much, much more aggression from nation states. In effect, we had the 20 to 30-year holiday from that kind of big player, sophisticated states in serious conflict with each other. It’s back, I’m afraid.”
One thing that lacks attention: all of this is only possible because Romanian president declassified findings of their intelligence agencies and did so at an unprecedented scope and pace.
Declassification and transparency seem like one of the most effective ways of fighting a foreign influence.
Declassification and transparency seem like one of the most effective ways of fighting a foreign influence.
Romania annuls election after alleged Russian meddling
https://www.ft.com/content/2248c05d-5536-4525-b0d2-330fc6140401
https://www.ft.com/content/2248c05d-5536-4525-b0d2-330fc6140401
Romania annuls election after alleged Russian meddling
Top court orders rerun of presidential vote
www.ft.com
December 6, 2024 at 6:29 PM
One thing that lacks attention: all of this is only possible because Romanian president declassified findings of their intelligence agencies and did so at an unprecedented scope and pace.
Declassification and transparency seem like one of the most effective ways of fighting a foreign influence.
Declassification and transparency seem like one of the most effective ways of fighting a foreign influence.
"Authorities in Romania have revealed details of what appears to be a major attempt to interfere in the country’s presidential elections using the social media platform TikTok, and with a series of cyber-attacks."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Romania hit by major election influence campaign and Russian cyber-attacks
Romania's intelligence service reveals details of what it says is an attempt from abroad to meddle in the country's presidential election.
www.bbc.com
December 5, 2024 at 11:02 AM
"Authorities in Romania have revealed details of what appears to be a major attempt to interfere in the country’s presidential elections using the social media platform TikTok, and with a series of cyber-attacks."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
More importantly, it would also run out of ammo in about 10 days according to UK military’s own wargaming.
And the same (or worse) is true for almost any European military.
And the same (or worse) is true for almost any European military.
“In a war of scale – not a limited intervention, but one similar to Ukraine – our army for example on the current casualty rates would be expended – as part of a broader multinational coalition – in six months to a year” www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...
British army could be wiped out within six months of Ukraine-scale war, minister warns
Alistair Carns says a casualty rate similar to Russia’s invasion could lead to the army being ‘expended’ within six to 12 months
www.theguardian.com
December 5, 2024 at 8:07 AM
More importantly, it would also run out of ammo in about 10 days according to UK military’s own wargaming.
And the same (or worse) is true for almost any European military.
And the same (or worse) is true for almost any European military.
With Britain out and France and Germany distracted, Europe is lacking a proper leadership more than ever.
*Slightly* unfortunate that during this two-month window for Ukraine which @elietenenbaum.bsky.social & Leo Litra describe, we neither have a properly working German, nor French government.
From: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
From: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
December 4, 2024 at 8:10 PM
With Britain out and France and Germany distracted, Europe is lacking a proper leadership more than ever.
“This two-way, mutually beneficial trade meant that cash rich cocaine kingpins simultaneously helped Russian cyber criminals and elites to launder stolen crypto and access cash while evading western sanctions.”
A UK-led operation has uncovered a multibillion-dollar money laundering scheme run out of London, Moscow and Dubai that enabled Russian spies and European drug traffickers to evade sanctions using cryptocurrency www.ft.com/content/31b9...
December 4, 2024 at 6:31 PM
“This two-way, mutually beneficial trade meant that cash rich cocaine kingpins simultaneously helped Russian cyber criminals and elites to launder stolen crypto and access cash while evading western sanctions.”
"China now has a manufacturing sector that is larger than those of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Britain put together."
www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/b...
www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/b...
China Just Showed Washington How It Plans to Fight the Next Trade War
Faltering U.S. industrial leadership has allowed China to take a harder trade stance as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office.
www.nytimes.com
December 4, 2024 at 6:00 PM
"China now has a manufacturing sector that is larger than those of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Britain put together."
www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/b...
www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/b...
The thing is that you can also technically join peace talks but without any intention to actually ever agree on a peace deal - and maintain the pressure in the meantime.
According to Reuters, Trump's team proposes three "peace plans" for the war in Ukraine. None of these plans include Ukraine joining NATO. Trump is willing to provide more weapons to Ukraine only if peace talks begin and warns Russia of increased support for Kyiv if they refuse.
December 4, 2024 at 1:42 PM
The thing is that you can also technically join peace talks but without any intention to actually ever agree on a peace deal - and maintain the pressure in the meantime.
And the Shortest Coup Award goes to South Korea.
"South Korea President Yoon says martial law will be lifted"
www.bbc.com/news/live/cn...
"South Korea President Yoon says martial law will be lifted"
www.bbc.com/news/live/cn...
South Korea live: South Korea President Yoon says martial law will be lifted
The move comes after lawmakers defied the president, gathering at the parliament to vote to block military rule.
www.bbc.com
December 3, 2024 at 7:50 PM
And the Shortest Coup Award goes to South Korea.
"South Korea President Yoon says martial law will be lifted"
www.bbc.com/news/live/cn...
"South Korea President Yoon says martial law will be lifted"
www.bbc.com/news/live/cn...
This is will be a tricky paradox for Trump and his new administration which wants to both lower oil prices and cut off Iran's oil revenue. Squeezing Iran's oil exports means less money for Iran but it also means higher oil prices (which also helps Russia at the same time). Hard one to solve.
December 3, 2024 at 7:43 PM
This is will be a tricky paradox for Trump and his new administration which wants to both lower oil prices and cut off Iran's oil revenue. Squeezing Iran's oil exports means less money for Iran but it also means higher oil prices (which also helps Russia at the same time). Hard one to solve.