David Karpa
@dkarpa.bsky.social
Postdoc at SOT, TUM. Political economy, digital authoritarianism, algorithmic governance. I work with data. Views are mine.
www.davidkarpa.com
www.davidkarpa.com
Communism 101
November 8, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Communism 101
Reposted by David Karpa
Are university still a left-wing thing in Europe?
Unsure: HE is a hierarchical institution with egalitarian employees
I find that universities increasingly inculcate selfish career concerns for status while leaving universalist concerns for global justice unchanged
Unsure: HE is a hierarchical institution with egalitarian employees
I find that universities increasingly inculcate selfish career concerns for status while leaving universalist concerns for global justice unchanged
NEW -
Globalization, Higher Education, and Neoliberal Values: Evidence from the Bologna Process - https://cup.org/3LG3lVj
- @mgiani.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Globalization, Higher Education, and Neoliberal Values: Evidence from the Bologna Process - https://cup.org/3LG3lVj
- @mgiani.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 3, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Are university still a left-wing thing in Europe?
Unsure: HE is a hierarchical institution with egalitarian employees
I find that universities increasingly inculcate selfish career concerns for status while leaving universalist concerns for global justice unchanged
Unsure: HE is a hierarchical institution with egalitarian employees
I find that universities increasingly inculcate selfish career concerns for status while leaving universalist concerns for global justice unchanged
Academia, but we don't argue about pants
you don't have to put on blackface to get social media attention. you can simply develop mild depression, join a menswear forum, spend the next 15 years arguing about pants, and then weaponize the knowledge against your enemies on social media.
November 4, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Academia, but we don't argue about pants
Reposted by David Karpa
Perfect timing for this story to drop on the same day Amazon lays off 30,000 workers due to claims of AI efficiencies.
If companies have less work for people to do, they don’t give you Fridays off, they lay off people until everyone has a full workweek.
If companies have less work for people to do, they don’t give you Fridays off, they lay off people until everyone has a full workweek.
Zoom CEO Eric Yuan says AI will shorten our workweek | TechCrunch
Zoom CEO Eric Yuan says that, in a few years, we should be working a 3-4 day workweek because of AI.
techcrunch.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Perfect timing for this story to drop on the same day Amazon lays off 30,000 workers due to claims of AI efficiencies.
If companies have less work for people to do, they don’t give you Fridays off, they lay off people until everyone has a full workweek.
If companies have less work for people to do, they don’t give you Fridays off, they lay off people until everyone has a full workweek.
If you show a chatbot party programs and tell them your socioeconomic status, I am pretty confident the advice will be magnitudes better than anything that goes on in (social) media
Millions of Dutch voters use vote advice tests right before elections.
This year many will consult AI chatbots too. Recent data show that up to a quarter sometimes use AI for current affairs.
It's a huge question how many will rely on AI this time and what the quality of the advice will be #tk2025
This year many will consult AI chatbots too. Recent data show that up to a quarter sometimes use AI for current affairs.
It's a huge question how many will rely on AI this time and what the quality of the advice will be #tk2025
October 27, 2025 at 6:58 AM
If you show a chatbot party programs and tell them your socioeconomic status, I am pretty confident the advice will be magnitudes better than anything that goes on in (social) media
Das ganze wird aber trotzdem genutzt um sinnlose Überwachungsforderungen auszubauen: www.zeit.de/politik/deut...
October 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Das ganze wird aber trotzdem genutzt um sinnlose Überwachungsforderungen auszubauen: www.zeit.de/politik/deut...
Reposted by David Karpa
Ewartbar enttäuschende Reaktion. Anstatt sich tatsächlich im Detail mit Fehlern und Verantwortung auseinanderzusetzen, macht an es sich bequem in der Erzählung von der „aufgeheizten Debatte“. Man hat hier nachhaltigen Schaden angerichtet. Für die Demokraite müssen wir uns alle etwas mehr anstrengen.
October 26, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Ewartbar enttäuschende Reaktion. Anstatt sich tatsächlich im Detail mit Fehlern und Verantwortung auseinanderzusetzen, macht an es sich bequem in der Erzählung von der „aufgeheizten Debatte“. Man hat hier nachhaltigen Schaden angerichtet. Für die Demokraite müssen wir uns alle etwas mehr anstrengen.
Reposted by David Karpa
Public service decline → more far-right support: I summarize evidence from several coauthored studies in a new post for the @kpolanyisociety.bsky.social series on Fascism and Liberalism.
October 24, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Public service decline → more far-right support: I summarize evidence from several coauthored studies in a new post for the @kpolanyisociety.bsky.social series on Fascism and Liberalism.
Took these pics in Astana in 2023. Presidential palace next to some golden towers. Let's see if DC can compete
October 23, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Took these pics in Astana in 2023. Presidential palace next to some golden towers. Let's see if DC can compete
Designing constitutions can be about what is morally desirable. Or about their real economic,social and political consequences.
Not to diminish law review articles & law school committee work, but right now law professors should be working collectively on an intellectual & service project of immense, existential importance: building consensus around a revolutionary constitutional framework-of a Reconstruction 2.0 magnitude.
October 23, 2025 at 5:30 AM
Designing constitutions can be about what is morally desirable. Or about their real economic,social and political consequences.
motivated reasoning is limitless nowadays
"There is still a substantive fraction of voters who are not swayed by even a strong media reaction against right-wing ideology after an attack – and there is evidence that those who do distance themselves from the far right might revert to their old views once social pressure recedes"🤯
🚨 New article out!
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
October 22, 2025 at 3:41 PM
motivated reasoning is limitless nowadays
"There is still a substantive fraction of voters who are not swayed by even a strong media reaction against right-wing ideology after an attack – and there is evidence that those who do distance themselves from the far right might revert to their old views once social pressure recedes"🤯
🚨 New article out!
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
October 22, 2025 at 3:40 PM
"There is still a substantive fraction of voters who are not swayed by even a strong media reaction against right-wing ideology after an attack – and there is evidence that those who do distance themselves from the far right might revert to their old views once social pressure recedes"🤯
Reposted by David Karpa
🚨 New article out!
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
October 22, 2025 at 3:14 PM
🚨 New article out!
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
What if you couldn't be elected into office after a certain age? Let's say 55?
October 22, 2025 at 3:35 PM
What if you couldn't be elected into office after a certain age? Let's say 55?
"we show that regions increase their vote share for Le Pen where the quality of government decreases. We also show that this relationship holds at the individual level. Thus, supplying quality, impartial and fair public services seem to stifle demand for [...] authoritarianism[...]"
October 21, 2025 at 9:59 AM
"we show that regions increase their vote share for Le Pen where the quality of government decreases. We also show that this relationship holds at the individual level. Thus, supplying quality, impartial and fair public services seem to stifle demand for [...] authoritarianism[...]"
Reposted by David Karpa
🚨Deadline for submissions is today!🚨
Apply to EuroWEPS 12/13! We're organizing the next EuroWEPS workshops at Bocconi (Nov 14) and EUI (Dec 15) to discuss designs/papers focusing on causal inference. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is Sep 30
September 30, 2025 at 10:35 AM
🚨Deadline for submissions is today!🚨
"We find that reduced government spending predicts a greater endorsement of individualist and fatalist attributions, and labor deregulation predicts a higher endorsement of individualist attributions. Taken together, neoliberal policies potentially perpetuate ideologies that vindicate the system"
📈New research in Social Psychological and Personality Science reveals how government policies shape our beliefs about poverty. Countries with less spending and deregulated labor markets see more blame placed on individuals rather than systems.
Learn more: ow.ly/8AZv50WYMbR
Learn more: ow.ly/8AZv50WYMbR
September 19, 2025 at 4:44 AM
"We find that reduced government spending predicts a greater endorsement of individualist and fatalist attributions, and labor deregulation predicts a higher endorsement of individualist attributions. Taken together, neoliberal policies potentially perpetuate ideologies that vindicate the system"
Without marginaleffects my career would be over. Probably THE most important resource out there for quantitative social scientiests
Whoa—my book is up for pre-order!
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData
The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit
The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity.
tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData
The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit
The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity.
tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
September 17, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Without marginaleffects my career would be over. Probably THE most important resource out there for quantitative social scientiests
Reposted by David Karpa
Whoa—my book is up for pre-order!
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData
The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit
The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity.
tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData
The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit
The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity.
tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
September 17, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Whoa—my book is up for pre-order!
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData
The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit
The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity.
tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData
The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit
The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity.
tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
"children exposed to the welfare cut during preschool and school-age obtained lower GPAs, experienced reduced well-being and overall education levels, and suffered lower employment and earnings as adults. Children in their teens at exposure faced large increases in conviction probabilities"
Tips till journalister om frågor de kan ställa till regeringen apropå sänkt försörjningsstöd och kvalificering till välfärden:
Är risken för ökad brottslighet, minskad sysselsättning och sämre skolresultat värd att ta?
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Är risken för ökad brottslighet, minskad sysselsättning och sämre skolresultat värd att ta?
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Unintended Consequences of Welfare Cuts on Children and Adolescents
(October 2024) - This paper studies the effects of a large welfare benefit reduction on the children in the affected families. The welfare cut targeted adult refugees who received residency in Denmark...
www.aeaweb.org
September 17, 2025 at 8:27 AM
"children exposed to the welfare cut during preschool and school-age obtained lower GPAs, experienced reduced well-being and overall education levels, and suffered lower employment and earnings as adults. Children in their teens at exposure faced large increases in conviction probabilities"
Reposted by David Karpa
In Nordrhein-Westfalen wählen ziemlich gleich viele Leute AfD und Grüne. Medial und politisch geht es heute allerdings fast nur um die AfD und ihre Themen. Die "besorgten Bürger" die Aufmerksamkeit bekommen, sind die Anhänger der AfD. Wir sagen ihnen klar: es lohnt sich rechtsextrem zu wählen
September 15, 2025 at 6:56 AM
In Nordrhein-Westfalen wählen ziemlich gleich viele Leute AfD und Grüne. Medial und politisch geht es heute allerdings fast nur um die AfD und ihre Themen. Die "besorgten Bürger" die Aufmerksamkeit bekommen, sind die Anhänger der AfD. Wir sagen ihnen klar: es lohnt sich rechtsextrem zu wählen
Electoral responses to economic crises: "economic crises tend to disproportionately favor the right"
September 1, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Electoral responses to economic crises: "economic crises tend to disproportionately favor the right"
Reposted by David Karpa
If you're bent out of shape about fertility rates and not worried about making our nation attractive and welcoming to immigrants you're either making a big logical error or you're not really worried about the economy at all.
“We have more and more people over 65 and not in the work force,” said Dowell Myers, a demography professor at the University of Southern California. “A new baby won’t help us for 20 years, but a young immigrant helps us immediately.”
August 22, 2025 at 5:26 PM
If you're bent out of shape about fertility rates and not worried about making our nation attractive and welcoming to immigrants you're either making a big logical error or you're not really worried about the economy at all.
"Discrimination is most pronounced in industry and skilled crafts sectors and for small firms, while public
administration and large firms show minimal differences. Discrimination is significantly more prevalent in rural areas than in urban areas."
administration and large firms show minimal differences. Discrimination is significantly more prevalent in rural areas than in urban areas."
Orgin beats Performance. In Germany, 10th graders who apply for an apprenticeship have a 15pp lower chance to receive an answer. @dgsoziologie.bsky.social @mpsa.bsky.social @davidajaeger.bsky.social @cesifo.org @danbischof.bsky.social @p-hunermund.com papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
August 20, 2025 at 11:37 AM
"Discrimination is most pronounced in industry and skilled crafts sectors and for small firms, while public
administration and large firms show minimal differences. Discrimination is significantly more prevalent in rural areas than in urban areas."
administration and large firms show minimal differences. Discrimination is significantly more prevalent in rural areas than in urban areas."
"Overall, our findings suggest a “ratchet-effect” heuristic: left parties may still push back against rising disparities but have given up on lowering existing levels of inequality. To us, the findings imply lock-in effects [...]"
Why Inequalities Persist: Parties’ (Non)Responses to Economic Inequality, 1970–2020
new paper in APSR. How do parties react to inqeuality levels and changes to these levels?
new paper in APSR. How do parties react to inqeuality levels and changes to these levels?
August 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
"Overall, our findings suggest a “ratchet-effect” heuristic: left parties may still push back against rising disparities but have given up on lowering existing levels of inequality. To us, the findings imply lock-in effects [...]"