Pretty solid cold-core setup in northern and eastern Illinois tomorrow. Impressive moisture return will allow for low to mid 50s F dewpoints in northern/eastern Illinois. On top of this moisture plume, ~-20C temperatures will allow for strong low and mid level lapse rates to develop.

A coldcore-ish setup will be in place in the TX panhandle/SW OK tomorrow. Despite the lack of quality moisture, morning convection will allow for higher moisture amounts in the area. A very convergent/vorticious zone will allow for some tornado potential for supercells that form.

Water Vapor imagery depicts much higher water vapor in NW OK and the TX panhandle. This mass is moving east and will be impacting us OKC/Norman folks soon, probably in the form of a mix/snow.

Tomorrow has a pretty intriguing severe setup; a very strong low level atop an unstable (~1k J/kg CAPE) airmass. It is currently unclear on the extent of the warm sector and the geometry of the system, but a change in these factors could greatly impact the severe risk.

Temperatures have massively been colder than predicted today behind the cold front; here in Norman, temperatures were forecasted in the upper 40s and low 50s, yet temperatures never exceeded 38F!

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A sneaky severe weather setup is happening tonight in the San Angelo area, very streamwise low level profiles and very strong deep layer shear will lead to a tornado risk. Low level instability is prevalent, but weak low level lapse rates and very moist profiles may lead to more-precip loaded RFDs.

Supercells going up on the dryline, with a potent one near Dresden, KS already producing lightning. Shows that destabilization has succeeded, but the question now is how wide the instability axis is. May see tor genesis within the next hour with the Dresden cell, with the sign of rotation on radar.

CU beginning to bubble up, and dewpoints entering the high 50s-low 60s. Clouds are beginning to clear; destabilization is likely ongoing, although the extent will be uncertain. As usual with dryline events, initiation may be 1-2 hours earlier than modelled.

Today there is a cold core-ish setup across N KS and S NE. There is a risk of tornadoes, but as with every cold core setup, there are concerns on destabilization. As of 15z, There is scattered cloud cover with showers across central KS. (Continued)

Today looks like a decent severe day for severe storms and possibly tornadoes. An outflow boundary from previous storms exists in NE NM, and may act as a psuedo-warm front for storms later today. This OFB may back winds further and inflate hodographs some, allowing for enhanced tornado potential.

Severe storms may occur today in NM, but issues arise regarding moisture before 01z. It is uncertain how much moisture will exist during the day, but warm air advection provided by a SErly low level jet may help moisten the environment and keep the BL coupled, allowing for at least mild instability.

First post here!

The next few days across New Mexico and WTX look intriguing for severe potential, especially Saturday/Sunday. On Saturday, synoptics look favorable for supercells, but some concerns exist with mid level temperatures. Moisture concerns due to the position of the ridge exist as well.