Carlton Haelig, PhD
@carltonhaelig.bsky.social
Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. All things national security strategy, force design and employment, and military innovation. https://www.cnas.org/people/carlton-haelig
Pinned
Stuck in the Cul-de-Sac
For more than a decade, the United States has sought to modernize its military to deter China, but it has become stuck in a developmental cul-de-sac.
www.cnas.org
Here is a quick thread highlighting my recent @cnas.bsky.social report with Phil Sheers on the FY26 defense budget. (1/12)
🔗 www.cnas.org/publications...
🔗 www.cnas.org/publications...
Tune in tomorrow, October 23rd at 11am for a conversation surrounding our recent @cnas.bsky.social report on the FY 2026 defense budget, military modernization, and the challenge of matching resources to strategy.
www.cnas.org/events/virtu...
www.cnas.org/events/virtu...
October 22, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Tune in tomorrow, October 23rd at 11am for a conversation surrounding our recent @cnas.bsky.social report on the FY 2026 defense budget, military modernization, and the challenge of matching resources to strategy.
www.cnas.org/events/virtu...
www.cnas.org/events/virtu...
Here is a quick thread highlighting my recent @cnas.bsky.social report with Phil Sheers on the FY26 defense budget. (1/12)
🔗 www.cnas.org/publications...
🔗 www.cnas.org/publications...
Stuck in the Cul-de-Sac
For more than a decade, the United States has sought to modernize its military to deter China, but it has become stuck in a developmental cul-de-sac.
www.cnas.org
October 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Here is a quick thread highlighting my recent @cnas.bsky.social report with Phil Sheers on the FY26 defense budget. (1/12)
🔗 www.cnas.org/publications...
🔗 www.cnas.org/publications...
One of the bright spots early in my national security career was the opportunity to work with Cassandra for a stint at Penn. Ahead of the curve, her work — and her story! — is worth reading.
This is autobiographical. But it's also an invitation to anyone who's ever dreamed of a career in space and thought it wasn't possible. My journey to space (as a space lawyer. Caveat: never actually been to space.)
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
October 18, 2025 at 3:13 AM
One of the bright spots early in my national security career was the opportunity to work with Cassandra for a stint at Penn. Ahead of the curve, her work — and her story! — is worth reading.
In a forthcoming @cnas.bsky.social report we highlight several pitfalls with relying on reconciliation for defense modernization. (1/2)
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
POLITICO Pro: Trump could shift funds to pay troops, White House officials say
GOP congressional leaders are resisting standalone military pay legislation, fearing it will take pressure off Democrats.
subscriber.politicopro.com
October 10, 2025 at 6:42 PM
In a forthcoming @cnas.bsky.social report we highlight several pitfalls with relying on reconciliation for defense modernization. (1/2)
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Applications are now open for the 2026-27 predoctoral and postdoctoral fellowships with the America in the World Consortium!
Applicants from all disciplines whose research bears directly on American grand strategy, broadly defined, are welcome to apply.
Deadline: December 1
Applicants from all disciplines whose research bears directly on American grand strategy, broadly defined, are welcome to apply.
Deadline: December 1
AWC Pre- and Post- Doctoral Fellowships 2025-2026
The America in the World Consortium at Duke University, Johns Hopkins SAIS, the University of Texas at Austin, and the University of Florida seeks applications from current Ph.D. students for its Pred...
www.awconsortium.org
October 2, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Applications are now open for the 2026-27 predoctoral and postdoctoral fellowships with the America in the World Consortium!
Applicants from all disciplines whose research bears directly on American grand strategy, broadly defined, are welcome to apply.
Deadline: December 1
Applicants from all disciplines whose research bears directly on American grand strategy, broadly defined, are welcome to apply.
Deadline: December 1
1/
The White House has been slow to release details on its FY26 defense budget request. We do know it aims to reallocate 8% of defense spending toward critical areas needed to modernize the military and retain its edge over competitors like China.
The White House has been slow to release details on its FY26 defense budget request. We do know it aims to reallocate 8% of defense spending toward critical areas needed to modernize the military and retain its edge over competitors like China.
June 4, 2025 at 6:17 PM
1/
The White House has been slow to release details on its FY26 defense budget request. We do know it aims to reallocate 8% of defense spending toward critical areas needed to modernize the military and retain its edge over competitors like China.
The White House has been slow to release details on its FY26 defense budget request. We do know it aims to reallocate 8% of defense spending toward critical areas needed to modernize the military and retain its edge over competitors like China.
It’s time we take nuclear signaling srsly again. My @cnas.bsky.social colleague Phil Sheers makes a clear argument in favor of building up the US ability to do so and discusses what changes the US needs to make to ensure it can credibly signal in a future crisis. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/t...
The U.S. Military Needs to Relearn Nuclear Signaling
A more flexible force can be a stronger deterrent in a crisis.
foreignpolicy.com
May 27, 2025 at 8:33 PM
It’s time we take nuclear signaling srsly again. My @cnas.bsky.social colleague Phil Sheers makes a clear argument in favor of building up the US ability to do so and discusses what changes the US needs to make to ensure it can credibly signal in a future crisis. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/t...
I enjoyed sitting down for an interview with the @thecipherbrief.bsky.social this afternoon. We hit on several topics, including sluggish procurement practices, budgetary challenges to equipping the future force, and yes, even some Golden Dome. Thanks to Tom for having me. youtu.be/ALO2WzOQTc8?...
The Pentagon Push to Change an “Antiquated” System
YouTube video by The Cipher Brief
youtu.be
May 6, 2025 at 1:01 AM
I enjoyed sitting down for an interview with the @thecipherbrief.bsky.social this afternoon. We hit on several topics, including sluggish procurement practices, budgetary challenges to equipping the future force, and yes, even some Golden Dome. Thanks to Tom for having me. youtu.be/ALO2WzOQTc8?...
1. There is a lot to consider in the significant set of reorganizations and orders included in Hegseth's Army transformation memo released today. I want to highlight the significance of just one. (thread)
May 1, 2025 at 8:53 PM
1. There is a lot to consider in the significant set of reorganizations and orders included in Hegseth's Army transformation memo released today. I want to highlight the significance of just one. (thread)
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
CNAS Launches New National Security Human Capital Program to Safeguard America’s Warfighting Edge
Military personnel, political appointees, and civil servants meet the demands of the National Security Strategy by providing the nation with the…
www.cnas.org
April 16, 2025 at 2:35 PM
NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Pleased to release my latest @cnas.bsky.social report on how to revitalize the U.S. defense industrial base so that it can keep pace with modern conflict, deter a future China challenge, and secure U.S. and global interests.
Read more here: www.cnas.org/publications...
Read more here: www.cnas.org/publications...
From Production Lines to Front Lines
The United States needs a different DIB than it has today if it wants to deter and prevail in future great power conflict.
www.cnas.org
April 3, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Pleased to release my latest @cnas.bsky.social report on how to revitalize the U.S. defense industrial base so that it can keep pace with modern conflict, deter a future China challenge, and secure U.S. and global interests.
Read more here: www.cnas.org/publications...
Read more here: www.cnas.org/publications...
Thinking about Andrew Marshall today and the legacy of strategic thought and disruptive analysis he built over generations of American success and security and the countless thinkers he shaped through ONA.
March 14, 2025 at 1:53 AM
Thinking about Andrew Marshall today and the legacy of strategic thought and disruptive analysis he built over generations of American success and security and the countless thinkers he shaped through ONA.
This is a solid read and provides a strong argument for how the geography of the Indo-Pacific and advances in Chinese capabilities which hold targets at risk over much longer distances really complicate our force design and concepts in the region.
For those in the air power sector looking for something less political to read this week: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Large, Crewed Sixth-Generation Aircraft Have Unique Value in the Indo-Pacific
Outsized combat aircraft built for stealthy long-range supersonic flight may be worth the cost for the US and China, but countries in Europe may be better off pursuing other capabilities.
www.rusi.org
March 5, 2025 at 4:21 PM
This is a solid read and provides a strong argument for how the geography of the Indo-Pacific and advances in Chinese capabilities which hold targets at risk over much longer distances really complicate our force design and concepts in the region.
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Outsized combat aircraft built for stealthy long-range supersonic flight may be worth the cost for the US and China, but countries in Europe may be better off pursuing other capabilities, writes @justin-br0nk.bsky.social.
Large, Crewed Sixth-Generation Aircraft Have Unique Value in the Indo-Pacific
Outsized combat aircraft built for stealthy long-range supersonic flight may be worth the cost for the US and China, but countries in Europe may be better off pursuing other capabilities.
rusi.org
March 5, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Outsized combat aircraft built for stealthy long-range supersonic flight may be worth the cost for the US and China, but countries in Europe may be better off pursuing other capabilities, writes @justin-br0nk.bsky.social.
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Here are 15 national security actions the administration should take in its first 100 days 👇👇 www.cnas.org/publications...
The First 100 Days
The First 100 Days is a series of recommendations from CNAS experts. The recommendations span the most pressing issues that will test the administration.
www.cnas.org
January 29, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Here are 15 national security actions the administration should take in its first 100 days 👇👇 www.cnas.org/publications...
How can the Trump administration improve the US military's position in the Indo-Pacific? Along with @spettyjohn.bsky.social, @beccawasser.bsky.social, and Josh Wallin we offer several recommendations in our contribution to the @cnas.bsky.social first 100 days initiative.
www.cnas.org/publications...
www.cnas.org/publications...
Build a High-Low Mix to Enhance America’s Warfighting Edge and Deter China
The Trump administration can take immediate actions to deter China and reverse negative trends in military power in the Indo-Pacific.
www.cnas.org
January 21, 2025 at 2:16 PM
How can the Trump administration improve the US military's position in the Indo-Pacific? Along with @spettyjohn.bsky.social, @beccawasser.bsky.social, and Josh Wallin we offer several recommendations in our contribution to the @cnas.bsky.social first 100 days initiative.
www.cnas.org/publications...
www.cnas.org/publications...
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
“The USMC is dramatically increasing its relevance to the war fighting capability of the U.S. As the world lurches into an age of renewed strategic competition, the USMC understands that it must be at the forefront of innovation in high-intensity warfare.”
www.aspistrategist.org.au/small-agile-...
www.aspistrategist.org.au/small-agile-...
Small, agile, deadly: the US Marine Corps and future war | The Strategist
The US Marine Corps is dramatically increasing its relevance to the war fighting capability of the United States. As the world lurches into an age of renewed strategic competition, the Marine Corps un...
www.aspistrategist.org.au
December 19, 2024 at 9:07 AM
“The USMC is dramatically increasing its relevance to the war fighting capability of the U.S. As the world lurches into an age of renewed strategic competition, the USMC understands that it must be at the forefront of innovation in high-intensity warfare.”
www.aspistrategist.org.au/small-agile-...
www.aspistrategist.org.au/small-agile-...
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Given this week’s events Assad's regime is finished & it’s a race to Damascus. The Russian position in Syria, and MENA region writ large is consequently in deep trouble, because of Syria’s importance as a logistics hub for Russian operations. Short thread. 1/
December 7, 2024 at 6:54 PM
Given this week’s events Assad's regime is finished & it’s a race to Damascus. The Russian position in Syria, and MENA region writ large is consequently in deep trouble, because of Syria’s importance as a logistics hub for Russian operations. Short thread. 1/
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Astonishing that in one year Iran has lost Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, its air defenses, the effectiveness of its ballistic missiles, and the taboo against striking Iran directly.
Incentives to negotiate or go nuclear will be high. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/w...
Incentives to negotiate or go nuclear will be high. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/w...
Iran Begins to Evacuate Military Officials and Personnel From Syria
The withdrawals by one of President Bashar al-Assad’s key backers come amid a resurgent rebel offensive.
www.nytimes.com
December 7, 2024 at 5:37 AM
Astonishing that in one year Iran has lost Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, its air defenses, the effectiveness of its ballistic missiles, and the taboo against striking Iran directly.
Incentives to negotiate or go nuclear will be high. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/w...
Incentives to negotiate or go nuclear will be high. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/w...
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Read more content from research leads Andrea Kendall-Taylor, @jonathanlorddc.bsky.social, @jacobstokes.bsky.social and others here⬇️ www.cnas.org/axis-of-uphe...
Axis of Upheaval
Today a new Axis of Upheaval —the increasing alignment among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—is fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape.…
www.cnas.org
December 5, 2024 at 7:33 PM
Read more content from research leads Andrea Kendall-Taylor, @jonathanlorddc.bsky.social, @jacobstokes.bsky.social and others here⬇️ www.cnas.org/axis-of-uphe...
The problems that @beccawasser.bsky.social & I have talked about recently are compounding. The US is firing low inventory systems at a very high rate, it can’t replace them anywhere near the rate of expenditure, and it’s already inadequate inventory in the Pacific has senior leaders very concerned.
Recent ops have strained already inadequate stocks of TLAMs & SM missiles, leaving the US less prepared for an Indo-Pacific conflict. I told @washingtonpost.com: “The rate of fire is really high; if you look at the rate of build, that circle does not square.” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
As Middle East crisis grinds on, Pentagon shows signs of strain
For the first time since the Gaza war began, the U.S. will have no aircraft carrier nearby. Meanwhile, a weapons shortage has left the Pentagon spread thin.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 22, 2024 at 3:47 PM
The problems that @beccawasser.bsky.social & I have talked about recently are compounding. The US is firing low inventory systems at a very high rate, it can’t replace them anywhere near the rate of expenditure, and it’s already inadequate inventory in the Pacific has senior leaders very concerned.
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Please don't get caught up on the range of the missile system launched. Whether it was an ICBM or an IRBM, the range isn't the important factor.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
November 21, 2024 at 11:19 AM
Please don't get caught up on the range of the missile system launched. Whether it was an ICBM or an IRBM, the range isn't the important factor.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
Reposted by Carlton Haelig, PhD
Follow CNAS experts now on Bluesky! go.bsky.app/4iNX4qL
November 21, 2024 at 5:47 PM
Follow CNAS experts now on Bluesky! go.bsky.app/4iNX4qL
The alarm bells have been going off in the Indo-Pacific for some time now.
Indo-Pacom commander Adm. Samuel Paparo says when he took over in May, "I was already dissatisfied with magazine depth...I'm a little more dissatisfied with that magazine depth [today]. You know it's time for straight talk."
November 19, 2024 at 9:36 PM
The alarm bells have been going off in the Indo-Pacific for some time now.
Excited to start sharing ideas with a new audience!
With a laundry list of security and foreign policy options under review right now, I wanted to share a recent piece of mine in which I go through how the US should balance its regional interests going forward. breakingdefense.com/2024/10/to-f...
With a laundry list of security and foreign policy options under review right now, I wanted to share a recent piece of mine in which I go through how the US should balance its regional interests going forward. breakingdefense.com/2024/10/to-f...
To focus on China, US needs to wean off Europe and Middle East missions
In this op-ed, Carlton Haelig of CNAS argues the US needs to shift its priorities away from Europe and the Middle East in order to better focus on the threat of China.
breakingdefense.com
November 19, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Excited to start sharing ideas with a new audience!
With a laundry list of security and foreign policy options under review right now, I wanted to share a recent piece of mine in which I go through how the US should balance its regional interests going forward. breakingdefense.com/2024/10/to-f...
With a laundry list of security and foreign policy options under review right now, I wanted to share a recent piece of mine in which I go through how the US should balance its regional interests going forward. breakingdefense.com/2024/10/to-f...