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britainelects.com
Britain Elects
@britainelects.com
27K followers 5 following 610 posts
Britain's leading aggregator for polling, forecasts and election results. Run by @bwalker.uk. Est. 2013 with the late, great, Lily Jayne Summers.
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britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 13pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 33% (+3)
LAB: 20% (-)
CON: 17% (-1)
LDEM: 12% (-)
GRN: 11% (-1)

via @OpiniumResearch, 05 - 07 Nov
Chgs. w/ 24 Oct
britainelects.com
Britain Elects | Substack
Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
britainelects.com
November 9, 2025 at 3:03 PM
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 15pts
‼️ Grns 3pts ahead of Lab
Westminster voting intention

REF: 33% (+1)
GRN: 18% (+1)
CON: 16% (-)
LAB: 15% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)

via @FindoutnowUK, 05 - 06 Nov
Chgs. w/ 29 Oct
britainelects.com
Britain Elects | Substack
Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
britainelects.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:25 AM
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 12pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 31% (-2)
CON: 19% (+1)
LAB: 18% (-3)
LDEM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 12% (+1)

via @Moreincommon_, 31 Oct - 03 Nov
Chgs. w/ 27 Oct
britainelects.com
Britain Elects | Substack
Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
britainelects.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:35 PM
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (-)
LAB: 20% (+3)
CON: 16% (-1)
GRN: 16% (-)
LDEM: 15% (-)

via @YouGov, 02 - 03 Nov
Chgs. w/ 27 Oct
britainelects.com
Britain Elects | Substack
Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
britainelects.com
November 4, 2025 at 11:29 AM
britainelects.com
How the most and least deprived parts of England and Wales voted in 2024, and would vote in an election today

Ben Walker | www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
October 31, 2025 at 11:29 AM
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 10pts
‼️ Grns 1pt behind Lab
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (+1)
CON: 17% (-)
LAB: 17% (-3)
GRN: 16% (+1)
LDEM: 15% (-)

via @YouGov, 26 - 27 Oct
Chgs. w/ 20 Oct
britainelects.com
Britain Elects | Substack
Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
britainelects.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 9:55 AM
britainelects.com
The polls, compared to two months ago:

Reform: 🔼 up 1pt
Labour: 🔽 down 2pts
Conservatives: 🔼 up 1pt
Lib Dems: ⏸️ no change
Greens: 🔼 up 3pts
October 26, 2025 at 3:02 PM
britainelects.com
Britain Elects poll tracker:
Labour (19%) now polling closer to the Greens (12%) than Reform (31%)
October 26, 2025 at 10:41 AM
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 10pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 30% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 18% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 12% (+2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 22 - 24 Oct
Chgs. w/ 10 Oct
britainelects.com
Britain Elects | Substack
Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
britainelects.com
October 25, 2025 at 7:41 PM
britainelects.com
❗ Reform GAIN from Independent Group

Paulsgrove (Portsmouth) council by-election result:

REF: 64.2% (+64.2)
CON: 11.3% (-14.9)
LAB: 10.5% (-4.3)
LDEM: 8.7% (+4.6)
GRN: 5.3% (+5.3)

No IndGrp (-55.0) as prev.

+/- 2022

Estimated turnout: ~27% (+0)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:17 PM
britainelects.com
✅ Labour HOLD

New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council by-election result:

LAB: 29.7% (-27.6)
LDEM: 24.4% (+12.2)
REF: 22.2% (+22.2)
GRN: 14.9% (+5.3)
CON: 7.4% (-8.9)
IND: 1.4% (-3.1)

+/- 2024

Estimated turnout: ~29% (-2)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:16 PM
britainelects.com
✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD

Moseley (Birmingham) council by-election result:

LDEM: 34.7% (-11.9)
LAB: 24.4% (-14.1)
IND: 19.6% (+19.6)
GRN: 10.1% (+1.5)
REF: 7.3% (+7.3)
CON: 2.1% (-4.1)
IND: 1.7% (+1.7)

+/- 2022

Estimated turnout: ~30% (-11)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:14 PM
britainelects.com
✅ Conservative HOLD

Whittlesey North West (Fenland) council by-election result:

CON: 47.5% (-9.8)
REF: 34.1% (+34.1)
IND: 12.5% (+12.5)
LAB: 5.9% (-16.2)

No Grn (-20.5) as prev.

+/- 2023

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:13 PM
britainelects.com
❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative

Dunster (Somerset) council by-election result:

LDEM: 49.6% (+8.5)
REF: 28.9% (+28.9)
CON: 19.5% (-22.9)
LAB: 1.9% (-4.2)

No Grn (-10.3) as prev.

+/- 2022

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:13 PM
britainelects.com
❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent

Milton and Tamarside (Torridge) council by-election result:

LDEM: 37.2% (+37.2)
REF: 31.2% (+31.2)
CON: 16.8% (+16.8)
IND: 8.9% (-37.8)
GRN: 5.9% (-27.4)

No Lab (-20.0) as prev.

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~34% (+0)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:12 PM
britainelects.com
✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD

Glastonbury (Somerset) council by-election result:

LDEM: 36.4% (-0.7)
REF: 21.6% (+21.6)
CON: 20.9% (-9.7)
GRN: 19.8% (-7.5)
LAB: 1.4% (+1.4)

No Ind (-5.2) as prev.

+/- 2022

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:11 PM
britainelects.com
Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result:

PC: 47.4% (+19.0)
REF: 36.0% (+34.2)
LAB: 11.0% (-34.9)
CON: 2.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 1.5% (+1.5)
LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2)
GWL: 0.3% (+0.3)
UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)

Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
October 24, 2025 at 1:14 AM
britainelects.com
Plaid Cymru GAIN Caerphilly from Labour.
October 24, 2025 at 1:11 AM
britainelects.com
Our election previewer Andrew Teale has done some superb previews on today's by-elections, including the totemic Caerphilly contest
October 23, 2025 at 6:46 PM
britainelects.com
✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD

Yesterday's Meadvale and St John's (Reigate and Banstead) council by-election result:

LDEM: 48.3% (-8.1)
GRN: 17.6% (+17.6)
CON: 12.0% (-15.1)
REF: 11.6% (+11.6)
IND: 10.4% (+10.4)

No Lab (-16.4) as prev.

+/- 2022

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 17, 2025 at 3:39 PM
britainelects.com
✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD

Yesterday's Caterham Valley (Surrey) council by-election result:

LDEM: 48.1% (+0.6)
REF: 24.5% (+24.5)
CON: 13.0% (-23.5)
GRN: 5.5% (+5.5)
IND: 5.3% (-0.1)
LAB: 3.6% (-6.9)

+/- 2021

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 17, 2025 at 3:33 PM
britainelects.com
✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD

Yesterday's Whyteleafe (Tandridge) council by-election result:

LDEM: 45.0% (+14.3)
REF: 26.7% (+26.7)
CON: 9.9% (+0.4)
LAB: 9.5% (-1.8)
GRN: 8.9% (+3.7)

No Res (-43.2) as prev.

+/- 2024

Estimated turnout: ~18% (-14)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 17, 2025 at 3:32 PM
britainelects.com
❗ Conservative GAIN from Labour

Yesterday's Broadheath (Trafford) council by-election result:

CON: 36.8% (-0.3)
LAB: 22.3% (-17.4)
LDEM: 19.2% (+12.9)
REF: 16.5% (+16.5)
GRN: 4.7% (-4.1)
IND: 0.5% (-4.0)

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~44% (+1)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 17, 2025 at 3:29 PM
britainelects.com
❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative

Yesterday's Camberley West (Surrey) council by-election result:

LDEM: 49.5% (+16.6)
REF: 25.9% (+25.9)
CON: 20.4% (-28.8)
LAB: 4.3% (-11.4)

+/- 2021

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 17, 2025 at 3:28 PM
britainelects.com
❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Residents' Association

Yesterday's Guildford South East (Surrey) council by-election result:

LDEM: 41.3% (+18.0)
CON: 22.8% (-8.1)
RES: 16.3% (-21.4)
REF: 12.0% (+12.0)
GRN: 5.0% (+5.0)
LAB: 2.6% (-5.6)

+/- 2021

andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
October 17, 2025 at 3:27 PM