Brian Carter
@briancarter.bsky.social
Middle East Portfolio Manager at AEI’s Critical Threats Project. I lead the joint CTP and Institute for the Study of War Middle East Team. Opinions own.
Pinned
Brian Carter
@briancarter.bsky.social
· Mar 10
I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...
Reposted by Brian Carter
NEW | CTP’s @nicholasacarl.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social assess risks and opportunities for the US in Iran in their latest report, “The State of the Axis of Resistance.”
Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
Here are their key points:
(1/3)
Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
Here are their key points:
(1/3)
The State of the Axis of Resistance: Assessing Risks and Opportunities for the United States
www.criticalthreats.org
October 27, 2025 at 5:08 PM
NEW | CTP’s @nicholasacarl.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social assess risks and opportunities for the US in Iran in their latest report, “The State of the Axis of Resistance.”
Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
Here are their key points:
(1/3)
Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
Here are their key points:
(1/3)
My latest covers the efforts by Alawite insurgents to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government covers the recent uptick in both real and unconfirmed sectarian violence in western Syria. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ala...
Alawite Insurgents Seek to Use Sectarian Violence to Destabilize the Interim Government in Syria
www.criticalthreats.org
April 3, 2025 at 7:47 PM
My latest covers the efforts by Alawite insurgents to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government covers the recent uptick in both real and unconfirmed sectarian violence in western Syria. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ala...
The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
March 12, 2025 at 3:59 PM
The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...
March 10, 2025 at 5:17 PM
I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...
Reposted by Brian Carter
One thing that’s clear is that while Syria has a Ministry of Defense it does not have a military. Faction integration is current more hypothetical than anything else
March 8, 2025 at 3:37 PM
One thing that’s clear is that while Syria has a Ministry of Defense it does not have a military. Faction integration is current more hypothetical than anything else
The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
March 7, 2025 at 11:19 PM
The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
Reposted by Brian Carter
Important, after repatriating 15K since 2021 (3K in 2025) Iraq has now paused repatriations from Syria after US funding cuts to its transit camp Jedda 1. Iraqis are the majority of Al-Hol residents: "Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation" shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Bagh...
Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation - Shafaq News
Shafaq News/
On Thursday, Iraq called on countries worldwide to repatriate their nationals
from Syria’s Al-Hol camp.
Speaking at
a meeting at the United Nations headquarters in Iraq, National Securit
shafaq.com
March 7, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Important, after repatriating 15K since 2021 (3K in 2025) Iraq has now paused repatriations from Syria after US funding cuts to its transit camp Jedda 1. Iraqis are the majority of Al-Hol residents: "Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation" shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Bagh...
Reposted by Brian Carter
New | A burgeoning insurgency led by pro-Assad elements is emerging in western Syria. (1/3)
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
March 7, 2025 at 1:55 AM
New | A burgeoning insurgency led by pro-Assad elements is emerging in western Syria. (1/3)
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Reposted by Brian Carter
Trump can't have a pro-Israel foreign policy when he has a pro-Russia one.
Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture.
www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...
Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture.
www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...
Israel fears sharing intelligence with U.S. due to Trump's rapprochement with Putin
NBC reports that Washington's allies are considering reducing the intelligence they share with the US as its relations with Moscow warm; The concern is that the identity of foreign assets could be acc...
www.ynetnews.com
March 6, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Trump can't have a pro-Israel foreign policy when he has a pro-Russia one.
Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture.
www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...
Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture.
www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...
This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?
March 1, 2025 at 7:10 PM
This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?
Reposted by Brian Carter
MORE: Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Putin's effort to posture Russia's receptiveness to negotiations with the United States. (1/3)
isw.pub/UkrWar022825
isw.pub/UkrWar022825
March 1, 2025 at 2:46 AM
MORE: Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Putin's effort to posture Russia's receptiveness to negotiations with the United States. (1/3)
isw.pub/UkrWar022825
isw.pub/UkrWar022825
Reposted by Brian Carter
ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains.
ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat
www.criticalthreats.org
February 26, 2025 at 7:42 PM
ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains.
ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
Reposted by Brian Carter
An important new piece on the potential for ISIS to reconstitute should US forces withdraw from Syria from @briancarter.bsky.social:
ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains.
ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat
www.criticalthreats.org
February 26, 2025 at 8:33 PM
An important new piece on the potential for ISIS to reconstitute should US forces withdraw from Syria from @briancarter.bsky.social:
A US withdrawal from #Syria risks reversing hard-earned gains that the US has made against #ISIS. The current presence in Syria now faces few threats and it keeps ISIS contained. A withdrawal now would risk ISIS’s reconstitution. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat
www.criticalthreats.org
February 26, 2025 at 6:50 PM
A US withdrawal from #Syria risks reversing hard-earned gains that the US has made against #ISIS. The current presence in Syria now faces few threats and it keeps ISIS contained. A withdrawal now would risk ISIS’s reconstitution. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...
Reposted by Brian Carter
CTP-ISW’s Middle East Team is shifting to a 5-day coverage schedule with a focus on Iran and the Axis of Resistance in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen in response to the Israeli defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah.
CTP-ISW will escalate to 7-day coverage of the region should future conditions warrant it. 🧵
CTP-ISW will escalate to 7-day coverage of the region should future conditions warrant it. 🧵
February 20, 2025 at 9:49 PM
CTP-ISW’s Middle East Team is shifting to a 5-day coverage schedule with a focus on Iran and the Axis of Resistance in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen in response to the Israeli defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah.
CTP-ISW will escalate to 7-day coverage of the region should future conditions warrant it. 🧵
CTP-ISW will escalate to 7-day coverage of the region should future conditions warrant it. 🧵
The Israeli campaign in Gaza was a military success, but it has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas. The reality that Hamas remains a potent governance actor in Gaza despite the Israeli operation does not mean that the campaign in the strip is a failure. Link ⬇️ for my latest
January 31, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The Israeli campaign in Gaza was a military success, but it has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas. The reality that Hamas remains a potent governance actor in Gaza despite the Israeli operation does not mean that the campaign in the strip is a failure. Link ⬇️ for my latest
Reposted by Brian Carter
The Islamic State continues to evolve and expand globally.
@liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵
@liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵
January 10, 2025 at 8:44 PM
The Islamic State continues to evolve and expand globally.
@liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵
@liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵
Reposted by Brian Carter
Israel has diminished the strategic threat of Hezbollah and secured a ceasefire that ensures the Israeli right to self-defense against any future threat that Hezbollah may pose as well.
@briancarter.bsky.social 's latest article assesses Israel's victory in Lebanon🧵
@briancarter.bsky.social 's latest article assesses Israel's victory in Lebanon🧵
December 3, 2024 at 7:25 PM
Israel has diminished the strategic threat of Hezbollah and secured a ceasefire that ensures the Israeli right to self-defense against any future threat that Hezbollah may pose as well.
@briancarter.bsky.social 's latest article assesses Israel's victory in Lebanon🧵
@briancarter.bsky.social 's latest article assesses Israel's victory in Lebanon🧵
The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US.
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
November 22, 2024 at 7:28 PM
The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US.
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
Reposted by Brian Carter
UNIFIL says 122-mm rockets struck its Sector West Headquarters in Shama, injuring four Italian peacekeepers. unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-state...
UNIFIL Statement: Rockets strike UNIFIL Sector West Headquarters, injuring 4 peacekeepers (22 November 2024)
Earlier today, two 122-mm rockets struck the Sector West Headquarters in Shama, injuring four Italian peacekeepers who are now receiving treatment at the base hospital. Fortunately, none of the injuri...
unifil.unmissions.org
November 22, 2024 at 2:47 PM
UNIFIL says 122-mm rockets struck its Sector West Headquarters in Shama, injuring four Italian peacekeepers. unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-state...
My team @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social's latest on the Israeli op in Lebanon. The Israelis began by disrupting Hezbollah's ops and org before exploiting Hezbollah's disruption to destroy the group's capabilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. isw.pub/LebanonCampaign
November 21, 2024 at 7:09 PM
My team @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social's latest on the Israeli op in Lebanon. The Israelis began by disrupting Hezbollah's ops and org before exploiting Hezbollah's disruption to destroy the group's capabilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. isw.pub/LebanonCampaign
Reposted by Brian Carter
Beginning my Bluesky journey sharing my latest in the Hudson Institute's Current Trends in Islamist Ideology. The death of Ebrahim Raisi in May upended the political status quo in Tehran and triggered an impromptu reshaping of the Iranian political landscape.
www.hudson.org/politics-gov...
www.hudson.org/politics-gov...
Political Transition in Post-Raisi Iran
The death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024 upended the political status quo in Iran and created new uncertainty about where the country is headed. In many ways, Raisi was a...
www.hudson.org
November 19, 2024 at 3:52 PM
Beginning my Bluesky journey sharing my latest in the Hudson Institute's Current Trends in Islamist Ideology. The death of Ebrahim Raisi in May upended the political status quo in Tehran and triggered an impromptu reshaping of the Iranian political landscape.
www.hudson.org/politics-gov...
www.hudson.org/politics-gov...
Fantastic thread going over Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. claims targeting Merkavas since 10/7.
So since the first Merkava was destroyed in Gaza, i want to give you a small update on where we stand with the Israel Lists rework
We have worked through all the Videos we could find from 23.08.2024 until 19.11.2023.
We have worked through all the Videos we could find from 23.08.2024 until 19.11.2023.
November 18, 2024 at 1:43 PM
Fantastic thread going over Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. claims targeting Merkavas since 10/7.
Reposted by Brian Carter
Seems like a good time to re-up my recent piece for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social, specifically forecasting the impacts of the Russia-North Korea relationship as they apply to the Korean Peninsula and wider Asia Pacific region ⬇️
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
November 18, 2024 at 12:56 PM
Seems like a good time to re-up my recent piece for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social, specifically forecasting the impacts of the Russia-North Korea relationship as they apply to the Korean Peninsula and wider Asia Pacific region ⬇️
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
Al Akhbar reported what I suspected—IDF is moving toward an elevated point on the Lebanese coast that overlooks a UNIFIL position and more importantly, a reported Hezbollah Naval Unit site. Source for the site in replies.
November 17, 2024 at 5:08 PM
Al Akhbar reported what I suspected—IDF is moving toward an elevated point on the Lebanese coast that overlooks a UNIFIL position and more importantly, a reported Hezbollah Naval Unit site. Source for the site in replies.